Winter 2024/2025 January Thread

[jaxjagman]

https://www.brproud.com/video/wvla-anvato-2/adstXlnjeoDNm4YE

[PowellVolz]

https://twitter.com/in2thinair/status/1881731822259953811?s=46&t=LVg8BRWCh1zZb6F_t95EVg

[bearman]

Here is one more link.  Bourbon St New Orleans.  Incredible!     https://www.earthcam.com/usa/louisiana/neworleans/bourbonstreet/?cam=bourbonstreet#google_vignette 

[Daniel Boone]

2 minutes ago, bearman said:

Here is one more link.  Bourbon St New Orleans.  Incredible!     https://www.earthcam.com/usa/louisiana/neworleans/bourbonstreet/?cam=bourbonstreet#google_vignette 

Been watching it too. Amazing. Already close to 2 inches in NW Florida. Been watching some live fee from there too. 

[John1122]

Pretty much a nightmare for winter lovers here. In the last 7 years there are areas of the Gulf Coast that have received more snow than parts of Tennessee. Chattanooga has officially had right at 10 inches of snow total since 2016. By the time this is over Baton Rouge will have had more snow than Chattanooga over that time span and maybe more than Knoxville has officially record at TYS since then.

Looking back on years where Baton Rouge had record snows, their all-time record was in 1895 Knoxville got 25 inches that month, including around 7 inches when Baton Rouge set their record. Their second biggest snowfall, Knoxville had 6 inches the same day. Their third biggest, Knoxville had 9 inches the same day. Their 4th biggest was Dec 2017, when we got missed to the south, and now we are getting missed to the south again.

 

[PowellVolz]

Starting to think if we don’t score something this coming weekend, we are probably going to fall back into a normal winter pattern where luck and timing is the main factor for getting snow. By no means am I kicking winter, I’m not that guy but losing this pattern will obviously make it more challenging to score. 

(FYI I’m speaking of the valley around Knoxville. Obviously the higher elevations, especially above 2500ft, don’t have the challenges we have). 

[PowellVolz]

3 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Pretty much a nightmare for winter lovers here. In the last 7 years there are areas of the Gulf Coast that have received more snow than parts of Tennessee. Chattanooga has officially had right at 10 inches of snow total since 2016. By the time this is over Baton Rouge will have had more snow than Chattanooga over that time span and maybe more than Knoxville has officially record at TYS since then.

Looking back on years where Baton Rouge had record snows, their all-time record was in 1895 Knoxville got 25 inches that month, including around 7 inches when Baton Rouge set their record. Their second biggest snowfall, Knoxville had 6 inches the same day. Their third biggest, Knoxville had 9 inches the same day. Their 4th biggest was Dec 2017, when we got missed to the south, and now we are getting missed to the south again.

 

I know you are good with dates (not talking about women lol)… was it 2017 when areas south of Chattanooga scored a couple of times when Tennessee was cold and dry?

[PowellVolz]

[Daniel Boone]

21 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Pretty much a nightmare for winter lovers here. In the last 7 years there are areas of the Gulf Coast that have received more snow than parts of Tennessee. Chattanooga has officially had right at 10 inches of snow total since 2016. By the time this is over Baton Rouge will have had more snow than Chattanooga over that time span and maybe more than Knoxville has officially record at TYS since then.

Looking back on years where Baton Rouge had record snows, their all-time record was in 1895 Knoxville got 25 inches that month, including around 7 inches when Baton Rouge set their record. Their second biggest snowfall, Knoxville had 6 inches the same day. Their third biggest, Knoxville had 9 inches the same day. Their 4th biggest was Dec 2017, when we got missed to the south, and now we are getting missed to the south again.

 

1895 is when Lake Charles recorded 2 feet from that one Storm !

[PowellVolz]

2” per hour rates moving into SW Alabama 

[John1122]

12 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

I know you are good with dates (not talking about women lol)… was it 2017 when areas south of Chattanooga scored a couple of times when Tennessee was cold and dry?

December 2017 and January 2018 it happened. December snow went from Texas and Louisiana across Miss, Alabama, Georgia and the Carolinas. 2018 I believe it went more along the gulf coast. I know Southern Miss and Alabama got 2-4 inches. Then there was another event from NE Florida up the Georgia and Carolina coasts. Parts of the Texas gulf coast got over 12 inches that winter, so did parts of Georgia.

[John1122]

30 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

Starting to think if we don’t score something this coming weekend, we are probably going to fall back into a normal winter pattern where luck and timing is the main factor for getting snow. By no means am I kicking winter, I’m not that guy but losing this pattern will obviously make it more challenging to score. 

(FYI I’m speaking of the valley around Knoxville. Obviously the higher elevations, especially above 2500ft, don’t have the challenges we have). 

Honestly, luck and timing are always needed here. We are the world capitol of ice box cold and warm up to rain events. I've also always found it amazing that it snows regularly in places where it's well below zero but it's almost impossible to get snow to fall here in the teens, as storms get suppressed 1000 miles south when that happens here.

While most anything can happen, historically, after these long cold shots, winter is essentially over when the pattern flips.  It flipped in early Feb 1977 and we got up to 80 before the month was over. 2018 we had a legit February heat wave.  Knoxville didn't even get below freezing from Feb 10th through the 28th and there were more days in the 80s for highs than 30s for lows. Feb '96 was the same. Mid 80s by late month after -20 imby early month. February 1985 fought back for us, but it's the least common path after a very BN January.

[Carvers Gap]

Looks like we are about to enter a time frame around Jan 30th when cold air delivery mechanisms will be largely absent, and zonal flow over most of NA will be present.  There are still very divergent outcomes when we look at the MJO progression(both amplitude and speed) on several models.  The Euro gets it rapidly through the warm phases.  American modeling take it to 6 and leaves it there the rest of winter.  During Feb, I suspect we see very small windows where it can snow.  The cold air supply to our north is substantial, but with zonal...it is stuck there.  I think we will still see strong cold fronts, but they will likely lack staying power.  So, an precip(if we want snow) is going to have to be timed nearly perfectly.  I continue to think March(and the latter half of Feb if we are lucky) will feature a final return to cold.  We have seen two bouts(early-mid Dec and almost all of Jan) of cold already.  One more appears likely.  It wouldn't surprise me if it is the coldest against the norms.  

A word of caution...as long as that substantial pool of cold air lurks in Canada, any warm forecast is in substantial danger.  Warmth could/should rule the day for February, but cold lurks behind any cutter which could flip the pattern on a dime.   One thing we have seen with cold this winter, when we get it...it isn't halfway.  

For now, February looks base warm with some cold intrusions which could provide wintry weather if timing is precise.  Otherwise, we wait until late Feb and early March.  I suspect the modeled zonal pattern (beginning late next week) is likely the "new" pattern.  However, zonal can be tough to maintain during February as wavelengths shorten up.  I would suspect some of the Feb cold shots will not be seen until the last minute on modeling.

That's about it.  Pretty boring pattern on tap for a few days, but the pattern is capable of snow...so it is worth keeping an eye on.  There are a few chances on either side of Jan 30th.  Again, it would not surprise me to see a mix of severe and winter weather tracking for the next couple of months.

Sidenote:  Analog packages have been pretty stellar so far this winter.  They picked up the conflicting signal for January.  They had the cold end to November and cold start to Dec.  Most are very warm for February.  Many are very cold for March. 2017-2018 has been a great analog this winter.

[Carvers Gap]

Below is why we have to tread carefully.  The first slide is basically right now.  The second slide is 384(looks quite similar to the ensemble BTW).  See how much cold is in Canada.  That is coming south at some point.  My guess is the West will benefit, but any cutter through the Plains could bring part or all of that air mass southward.  The 12z Euro has a strong SER, but that might be a buckle before the next air mass.  IF....IF the Euro MJO is correct, that air mass is heading SE.  If the American MJO plot is correct....that air mass goes west, and we have the SER. 

But that is a crap ton of cold in Canada to start February.  Right now the cold is just rotating west to east along the Canadian/US border with zonal under it.  It is rare to be dealing with so much cold in NA late in that run(common theme and likely correct even at that range).  I am having to adjust a bit to having that much cold which could drop into the pattern very quickly.

Normally, I would just go torch for Feb....but that air mass is going to have to reckoned with I think....guessing it will modify and the last 10 days of Feb is when we see it move east.  But that is a guess only.

 

[*Flash*]

Thank you, Carver, for redirecting focus to the future. Certainly helps on days like today. 

[Carvers Gap]

I do think a western Atlantic ridge (WAR) could fire later in the d10-15.  That brings very warm temps to the area.  But what do we remember about that feature during winter?  It often shreads the TPV.  If the TPV splits, we might not have to worry about the cold going to Asia.  Why?  It is already here.  Wouldn't surprise me to see a legit strat split during early Feb which sends us into the icebox later in Feb.  That is probably part of the reason why so many analogs are cold for March.

[Carvers Gap]

Lastly, the 6z EURO AIFS really wants to leave the EPO in place but squashed.  That would allow for periodic cold shots into the east.  That might well be a direct result of the PDO being less hostile.  The AIFS has been uncanny and rightfully stubborn in the long range.  The AIFS is probably our best chance going forward.  I give it a lot of weight.   It is basically the zonal/chinook outcome that mention in the first of these four posts(this being the fourth).  If the cold air supply is strong enough over NA, the MJO can do weird stuff(like the complete opposite of what the temp phase should be).  That said, we are due for a pattern change if you go by the 4-6 week rule for patterns.  So, I lean warm for the new pattern...but with great caution for Feb.  This is one where I look over my shoulder on every run for modeling to flip cold in the East. 

[Carvers Gap]

This kind of puts in perspective the month so far.  And honestly, I might not mind a 7-10 day warmup.  Right now as I type the wind chill is 10F. TRI has recorded a trace or more of snow at the airport 10 out 20 days this month so far.  Yesterday was 19 degrees below normal.  During December, all of those LR ext models which called for January cold weren't too far off the mark.  When it snows all the way to the Gulf Coast, that is a pretty amazing cold snap and one which leaves me a bit in awe.   Look at those departures from normal.  Only three days AN so far for the month. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Some snow showing up on the OHX and JKL radars. Looks to me to be a different mechanism to the overrunning to our south. Some MPing reports around Lexington. Nothing around Nashville yet. 

[bearman]

This is the craziest thing I have ever seen,  There is a snow hurricane in Pensacola Beach.  There is also even heavier returns out in the gulf about to come ashore.  https://hiltonpensacolabeach.com/beach-cam/. If you look close you can see the resort pools are starting to freeze over.

[BNAwx]

40 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Some snow showing up on the OHX and JKL radars. Looks to me to be a different mechanism to the overrunning to our south. Some MPing reports around Lexington. Nothing around Nashville yet. 

I saw a few small flakes when I went out for lunch.  We’ve been mostly overcast here with occasional breaks where some sun gets through.

[Carvers Gap]

Euro Weeklies Control is picking up another sharp cold shot during week 3.  That is just beyond the reach of deterministic modeling right now.  But you can kind of see it on most 12z modeling...push south of cold air. 

[Daniel Boone]

2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

This kind of puts in perspective the month so far.  And honestly, I might not mind a 7-10 day warmup.  Right now as I type the wind chill is 10F. TRI has recorded a trace or more of snow at the airport 10 out 20 days this month so far.  Yesterday was 19 degrees below normal.  During December, all of those LR ext models which called for January cold weren't too far off the mark.  When it snows all the way to the Gulf Coast, that is a pretty amazing cold snap and one which leaves me a bit in awe.   Look at those departures from normal.  Only three days AN so far for the month. 

We're running about 3-4 degrees colder than KTRI over here. I'd say much of the area over there has some as well. Warm spot there .

[Jed33]

View from my parents condo in Ft Walton beach FL. It’s absolutely ripping there right now. This was about an hour ago and they had a couple inches then. Probably got 3-4 by now and who knows where they will land. I have a friend who knows someone in Pensacola and they measured 7in there, but I think it was slightly inland. 

[John1122]

Friend in Mobile Alabama sent me this. They live in Mobile because they hate snow/cold. 

 

[John1122]

Florida's record snowfall is in tatters. When the models show climatologically unlikely things here, forget it. When they do along the gulf, buy the bread and milk. 

[PowellVolz]

[PowellVolz]

13 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Friend in Mobile Alabama sent me this. They live in Mobile because they hate snow/cold. 

 

That’s gotta be 10+….. incredible 

[dwagner88]

3 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

Yeah we just had an absolutely incredible sunset here. One I will remember for a long time.

[dwagner88]

6 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

That’s gotta be 10+….. incredible 

Still snowing there too. They may have another hour or two of good rates.