Winter 2024/2025 January Thread

[Carvers Gap]

Also, next Sunday, ensembles and now the 18z GFS are picking up on a WAA system.  Something to watch for NE TN and northern Cumberland Plateau folks.

[Carvers Gap]

18z GFS.....make stationary fronts fun again.  

[Matthew70]

2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

I saw some data where late fall and early winter have gotten colder.  Spring has gotten warmer.  But until this cold pool loses its supply, could be a slog.  Many March analogs are cold.  This winter we are bucking the majority analogs though.  I said up front this winter might not play nice.  It has lived up to that.  From the word go, this winter just seemed to have a different look on long range modeling.  Not sure I can put my finger on exactly what…just seemed like it would buck the trends.  All those warm weeklies looks have been can kicked almost 2-3 weeks so far.

I’m surprised to hear springs have gotten warmer.  I feel they have gotten colder.  Especially having colder Aprils. A cold March & April does not surprise me.  It seems February has been warmer only to see winter come back in March & April with the dreaded cold rains. 

[Carvers Gap]

This seems to be a very common look around or just after 240.  I am watching this time frame.  The CMC and GFS have something similar.  Possible reload after this rotates through.  That is begging or a winter storm.  Cold air supply is stellar and the SER should flex right into that.

[Carvers Gap]

Just looking at the Euro Weeklies tonight...after a warmup during a TBD portion of February(edit), it sure looks like March might be an extension of winter for the usual places which can have winter during March.  

[vortexse93]

This is not my final snowfall forecast, but in a close enough time frame to go into some detail of my concerns with this system. For starters, long range model guidance have been indicating for a rare winter storm to impact LA into South MS for about a week or so and this is still consistent with the medium and short range models as of recent. 

For Central MS, it remains very uncertain on if there will be enough precip to overcome the extremely dry airmass. While model guidance of the ensembles are still indicating snow, the medium and short range models are not so certain that will be the case. The NAM, HRRR and RAP are suggest otherwise. The forecast sounding for KJAN from the 21z sounding does show a moist environment in the mid levels, but from about 700 mb down to the sfc shows a very dry environment. This concerns because this type of sounding is not supportive of snowfall, but instead snow flurries and very minor snowfall accumulations for Central MS. As some may recall in a previous post on here, I had concerns that Central MS will end up on the drier side of this system and based on the medium range guidance, this still could be the case heading into Tuesday. There is some time between and Tuesday for this system to make a push further north that maybe some of precip can make enough of an impact, but time will tell on that.  

The NWS Blend and several of the ensemble data are still indicating for potential snowfall of 1" to 2" across Central MS. However, given the time frame, I tend to lean towards the short range model guidance, especially with the census of those short term model guidance showing dry air eating away at any potential moisture in the atmosphere. Will still continue watching over the next several hours to see how this system will progress throughout the course of the day. Pending what tomorrow shows, will likely determine how Tuesday will pan out. 

[Carvers Gap]

3 hours ago, Matthew70 said:

I’m surprised to hear springs have gotten warmer.  I feel they have gotten colder.  Especially having colder Aprils. A cold March & April does not surprise me.  It seems February has been warmer only to see winter come back in March & April with the dreaded cold rains. 

it used to be that spring snow IMBY was not uncommon, and that snow during late November and early December was very unusual.  That has flipped since about December 2009. Winter finds a way to get going early in NE TN more times than not lately.  We can have cold/rainy springs.....

Also, I am thinking what I looked at was snow and not temps now that I think about it.  Though, there is prob some correlation there.  Snowier falls and early winters.  Less snow springs.

[matt9697]

18 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

Why couldnt you?Think the MJO becomes murky right now where it actually could go in later days,probably any model could be right ATM into the extended period.I was looking at the CFS and it shows two camps in the upcoming days,,believe it should be more advanced.Seems to me the IO will play games with the signal from the Rossby wave trains and Kelvin,thats just my thoughts,no forecast and i certainly could be wrong

I am ready to break for Spring personally! I have had to have a fire for the past four weeks, I am tired of wood and cleaning the stove, but never tired of the heat, nothing heats like a good old fashioned wood stove! 

[Save the itchy algae!]

I’m surprised to hear springs have gotten warmer.  I feel they have gotten colder.  Especially having colder Aprils. A cold March & April does not surprise me.  It seems February has been warmer only to see winter come back in March & April with the dreaded cold rains. 

Springs have gotten cooler in my 10 years here the last few, there’s no doubt. But it’s a small sample size.


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[matt9697]

14 minutes ago, Save the itchy algae! said:

Springs have gotten cooler in my 10 years here the last few, there’s no doubt. But it’s a small sample size.


.

It is interesting to me that in my location, we have had snow at some point during the last three Januarys, which, while none of them were really extreme, does stand out in my mind just because of the consecutive nature when not too long ago we would go multiple seasons without any measurable snow. The Earth is impacted more than we realize by the sun.  During the tail end of what is known as the Maunder Minimum, things happened, such as the extreme winters of Valley Forge and the fact that just a few years later, early settlers of Donelson and Robertson led a group across the frozen Cumberland River to found what would become Nashville. Now, according to some, we are headed into another solar minimum. Is this the start, or is it just a fluke? Another great resource, if I could ever find some in print, would be the volumes pinned by David Ludlum, Early American Winters, where he chronicles early American Weather, but it is and likely will remain out of print. 

https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7575229/

https://www.nashville.gov/departments/parks/historic-sites/fort-nashborough

[Jed33]

2 minutes ago, matt9697 said:

It is interesting to me that in my location, we have had snow at some point during the last three Januarys, which, while none of them were really extreme, does stand out in my mind just because of the consecutive nature when not too long ago we would go multiple seasons without any measurable snow. The Earth is impacted more than we realize by the sun.  During the tail end of what is known as the Maunder Minimum, things happened, such as the extreme winters of Valley Forge and the fact that just a few years later, early settlers of Donelson and Robertson led a group across the frozen Cumberland River to found what would become Nashville. Now, according to some, we are headed into another solar minimum. Is this the start, or is it just a fluke? Another great resource, if I could ever find some in print, would be the volumes pinned by David Ludlum, Early American Winters, where he chronicles early American Weather, but it is and likely will remain out of print. 

https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7575229/

https://www.nashville.gov/departments/parks/historic-sites/fort-nashborough

I found a copy of Ludlum’s Early American Winter’s Volume 1 last year on Amazon. It cost me about $100, and at the time they had 5 copies. I am truly amazed at what’s in it! 

[matt9697]

5 minutes ago, Jed33 said:

I found a copy of Ludlum’s Early American Winter’s Volume 1 last year on Amazon. It cost me about $100, and at the time they had 5 copies. I am truly amazed at what’s in it! 

Oh wow, yea, it is out of print and hard to come by but it is amazing what those early settlers had to live through! 

[Jed33]

I will say that in Volume 1 there is a chapter dedicated to the South, but it is quite small compared to the Northeast and New England sections. 

[matt9697]

31 minutes ago, Jed33 said:

I will say that in Volume 1 there is a chapter dedicated to the South, but it is quite small compared to the Northeast and New England sections. 

Probably because the South was sparsely populated compared to the Northeast and New England areas, fewer observations, would think our weather could have been similar 

[*Flash*]

For kicks and giggles. App thinks it’s going to snow here late next Sunday and Monday. 

[John1122]

Can't believe it at this lead, (or really any outside 4 days) but the Euro welcomed in February with a big winter storm for the East half of the area. 

[John1122]

57 minutes ago, *Flash* said:

For kicks and giggles. App thinks it’s going to snow here late next Sunday and Monday. 

My forecast had snow but now mrx says freezing rain. 

[matt9697]

I still think we get another forum wide storm before winter is over; most years, at this point, we havent had anything to track and are looking to February, heck, we have all had at least some snow, so whatever we get in February is icing to me. 

[david30]

Quote

1 hour ago, matt9697 said:

I still think we get another forum wide storm before winter is over; most years, at this point, we havent had anything to track and are looking to February, heck, we have all had at least some snow, so whatever we get in February is icing to me. 

 

This part, I’m up on HWY 82 in NW MS and the last storm that got everyone was 50 miles to my north while I had 33 and 1.3 inches of cold rain.  This one oddly enough now we can’t moisture this far north.  All im curently getting from all this cold is a high gas bill coming.

[vortexse93]

This post will likely be the last for this event and will also be on the shorter side of things as well. It appears for much of Central MS will end up on the drier side of this system. This is what I was concern with from the start as some of you may recall from my previous posts. This is now apparent in all the forecast model guidance. For those along I-20 and north (including the Jackson Metro) will likely see very little of snow, if that. There is not enough precip to overcome the dry airmass and so this will result in very minor snowfall accumulations. For those in southern MS to the MS Coast, snowfall accumulations are not only likely but could be significant in some places. Widespread snowfall totals of 2 to 4 inches will be possible, while some areas could be pushing closer to 6 or even 8 inches of snow. The higher snowfall accumulations will be very dependent upon where the heavier snow bands will end up at and their duration of those  bands.  

[dwagner88]

I think we are going to see both the New Orleans all time snowfall record and the state of Florida all time snowfall record fall. Pretty incredible event. 

[Greyhound]

I think we are going to see both the New Orleans all time snowfall record and the state of Florida all time snowfall record fall. Pretty incredible event. 

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[John1122]

GFS is back to the stalled front, wave develops and snows on the area in about a week. 

[John1122]

The Sunday cutter on the Euro is now more of a Sunday night slider that puts down a little light snow for parts of the forum area. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

N. Stream says, NO AMPLIFICATION FOR YOU!!!! 

 

 

[Jed33]

I just saw that there are Blizzard warnings for SE TX and southern LA! That is just mind blowing!!! This storm is truly the storm of a lifetime for them down there. My parents are at their condo in Destin-I can’t wait to see what happens later there!

[bearman]

This is just Historic Blizzard warnings on the gulf coast.

[jaxjagman]

Resembles the 2014 storm https://www.weather.gov/mob/2014_Ice

[bearman]

https://www.brproud.com/news/local-news/east-baton-rouge-parish/skycam-tracks-snowfall-in-east-baton-rouge-parish/

 

here is a live link Almost zero visibility. Click on and wait a few seconds will come up at top of page.

[housemtnTN]

Been watching some videos from Louisiana this morning, absolutely crazy stuff.