Winter 2024/2025 January Thread

[Carvers Gap]

1 minute ago, Daniel Boone said:

Link says "not found" brother.

^^^^^^^That's what happened to our snow -> 404 not found.  Comedic drum roll please.

[nrgjeff]

Let's try this. It might be fixed last page too.

Model trends are south for Tuesday. Sometimes the Deep South gets it and we don't, so we can be happy for them. I don't even want to look at the late week mess. 

There is still a chance Tue/Wed though. LREF from NWS. I'm not sure where this lives on their website so I'll share.

[dwagner88]

I would be a lot more bitter about this if we had missed last week. And I'm not actually ready to throw in the towel yet. There is still a good chance the northern precip shield is undermodeled. 

[tnweathernut]

20 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

Y'all are starting to sound like me! Welcome to the Dark Side.

AI versions pretty much followed their ops versions. Whatever. I'm going with the Canadian. Sounds good, eh?

I specifically had you in mind when I made the post…… lol

[nrgjeff]

Indeed it's nice to be playin' with house money. Southeast Tennessee certainly is, even if other parts of the forum don't feel the same (yet). If we get it great! If not I'll be happy for the Deep South. But yeah, I think we have a shot still. 

26 minutes ago, dwagner88 said:

I would be a lot more bitter about this if we had missed last week. And I'm not actually ready to throw in the towel yet. There is still a good chance the northern precip shield is undermodeled. 

I figured you were. Great stuff!

5 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

I specifically had you in mind when I made the post…… lol

Soon, maybe as early as in February, we can focus on the Dark Side of the Force. 

[*Flash*]

45 minutes ago, dwagner88 said:

I would be a lot more bitter about this if we had missed last week. And I'm not actually ready to throw in the towel yet. There is still a good chance the northern precip shield is undermodeled. 

I like your optimism. Personally, I'm hoping I can chase to northern AL, Sewanee, and/or Chatt and not have to go much further. 

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z Euro has below zero temps right in the middle of my February warm-up!  If I was driving a car called the February torch...the warning lights would be coming on.  BTW, it has yet another solution for snow next week.  

[tnweathernut]

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 12z Euro has below zero temps right in the middle of my February warm-up!  If I was driving a car called the February torch...the warning lights would be coming on.  BTW, it has yet another solution for snow next week.  

Sounds like we need to put the once reliable Euro on Prozac...

[Carvers Gap]

The CMC is on the west side of guidance, and its ensemble is west of that at 12z.  Decent jog west on ensembles.  GFS  and its ensemble are still buried.  The GEPS came in west of the operational at 12z.  I noticed the ensemble mean was up (GEPS), and decided to look at the individuals. Most of the bigger solutions get portions of E TN.

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

This is what we want.  The Euro has a bit of a low amplitude bias at times...beware.  But if we can get the MJO plot to race acorss the warm phases with low amplitude in the COD, February might be in play.  I did have NOT thought that for several months.  This trend started to show up recently.  The EPO/PNA is showing that is really wants to stay in place.  The NAO is showing some weak signals that it might fire up again soon.  Remember, the NAO is one of the toughest things for modeling to model IMHO, especially when it initiates and duration. @GaWx, is phase 3 the North Carolina phase for snowstorms?

Sorry, but I don’t know.

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z GEFS has a trailer system (similar to the EURO) to the SE mauler.  It is showing up on ensembles about 36 hours later.  Decent hits.

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z GEFS has flipped cold after brief warmup d10-15.  What if this pattern is just starting and not ending?  Worth asking.  Need to watch for a trailer to the Deep South system.  @Daniel Boone, we have seen that many, many times.  Jeff mentioned it as well.  The cold pulls back north and stalls.  That creates a boundary for the next storm.  Just have to time it right.  The 12z GEFS oddly supports the Euro operational at 12z - just quicker.  

[Daniel Boone]

7 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 12z GEFS has flipped cold after brief warmup d10-15.  What if this pattern is just starting and not ending?  Worth asking.  Need to watch for a trailer to the Deep South system.  @Daniel Boone, we have seen that many, many times.  Jeff mentioned it as well.  The cold pulls back north and stalls.  That creates a boundary for the next storm.  Just have to time it right.  The 12z GEFS oddly supports the Euro operational at 12z - just quicker.  

Yes, very plausible. If the MJO does as the Euro depicts particularly imo. I believe the Models LR are having trouble due to the MJO and Enso mainly. It seems the +TNH wants to keep reasserting. I think you hit on the main reason when you mentioned the change in the PDO.  Argues for -EPO.  Nina is weak so having trouble overpowering the Pacific.

[jaxjagman]

I think the MJO signal will get totally interfered with the next upcoming days and any model could be right TBH.IMHO like Carver said earlier the NAO will probably change the next several runs over and over, i still think temps could moderate some and towards the end of Jan it can get pretty cold again,depending on teleconnections

[John1122]

Way down the road, but the Euro rolled out a huge winter storm at D 12.

[John1122]

We begin February in the ice box per the Euro.

[matt9697]

3 hours ago, John1122 said:

We begin February in the ice box per the Euro.

Oh? Is this "we" the forum or East TN?

[matt9697]

2 minutes ago, matt9697 said:

Oh? Is this "we" the forum or East TN?

[matt9697]

This also seems like it is a drier rainy season for the West Coast perhaps next Fall's fire season will be easier on them since they should not have had an explosion of greenery from plentiful moisture! 

[matt9697]

I dont know that I have ever seen a Winter Storm Watch from New Orleans....

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
303 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025

LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064-065-070-071-076>090-MSZ068>071-
077-083>088-181715-
/O.NEW.KLIX.WS.A.0001.250121T0600Z-250122T0600Z/
Pointe Coupee-West Feliciana-East Feliciana-St. Helena-Washington-
Iberville-West Baton Rouge-East Baton Rouge-Assumption-St. James-
St. John The Baptist-Upper Lafourche-St. Charles-Upper St.
Bernard-Upper Terrebonne-Lower St. Bernard-Northern Tangipahoa-
Southeast St. Tammany-Western Orleans-Eastern Orleans-Northern
St. Tammany-Southwestern St. Tammany-Central Tangipahoa-Lower
Tangipahoa-Northern Livingston-Southern Livingston-Western
Ascension-Eastern Ascension-Upper Jefferson-Lower Jefferson-Upper
Plaquemines-Central Plaquemines-Wilkinson-Amite-Pike-Walthall-
Pearl River-Northern Hancock-Northern Harrison-Northern Jackson-
Southern Hancock-Southern Harrison-Southern Jackson-
Including the cities of Acy, Metairie, Brusly, Alliance, Pass
Christian, Marrero, Biloxi, Liberty, Donaldsonville, Bay St.
Louis, Violet, Moss Point, Felps, Woodville, Belle Chasse,
Pearlington, Bayou Cane, Chalmette, Smithdale, Geismar, Reserve,
Vancleave, Darlington, Paincourtville, Roseland, Dexter, Akers,
Convent, French Settlement, Livingston, Enon, Dolorosa, Bayou
Sorrel, Clinton, Bush, Baton Rouge, Kenner, Madisonville,
Westwego, Delacroix, Long Beach, Larose, Franklinton, Amite,
Ocean Springs, Prairieville, Hammond, New Roads, Pierre Part,
Wade, Houma, Salem, Kiln, Sorrento, Labadieville, St.
Francisville, East New Orleans, Jean Lafitte, Springfield,
Destrehan, McNeil, Gautier, Sellers, Pascagoula, Lyman, Picayune,
Livonia, Necaise, Gretna, Bogalusa, Jackson, Tylertown, Saucier,
Escatawpa, McComb, Lettsworth, Centreville, Barataria, Spillman,
Robert, Waveland, Walker, Braithwaite, Gloster, Lutcher, New
Orleans, Addis, Easleyville, Port Allen, Montpelier, Ponchatoula,
Gramercy, Raceland, Tickfaw, Shell Beach, Thibodaux, Norco,
Killian, Wakefield, Meraux, Greensburg, Slidell, St. Martin,
Lafitte, Denham Springs, Laplace, Gulfport, Yscloskey, Wilmer,
Kentwood, Independence, White Castle, Folsom, Whitehall,
Covington, Poplarville, Gillsburg, Fort Adams, Harahan,
Mandeville, Crossroads, Plaquemine, Diamondhead, and Gonzales
303 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snowfall possible over the northern half of the area
  and heavy mixed precipitation possible over the southern half of
  the area. Total snow accumulations between 4 and 8 inches along
  and north of the Interstate 10/12 corridor and 2 to 6 inches south
  of this line. Ice accumulations less than 1/4 inch north and
  around a 1/4 inch south possible.

* WHERE...Portions of southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi.

* WHEN...From late Monday night through Tuesday evening.

* IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will
  likely become slick and hazardous. Plan on slippery road
  conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday
  morning and evening commutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Hazardous driving conditions may last into or
  through Wednesday as well since all of the wintry precipitation
  that falls Tuesday may not melt through the day Wednesday. If this
  begins to look likely, winter weather headlines could be extended
  into or through Wednesday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

Persons should consider delaying all travel. If travel is absolutely
necessary, drive with extreme caution. Consider taking a winter
storm kit along with you, including such items as booster cables,
flashlight, blankets and extra clothing. Also take water, a first
aid kit, and anything else that would help you survive in case you
become stranded.

[*Flash*]

This is going to be an historic storm for places that may not see snow for a decade (or more) after this. At ths point, I'd rather not see a northwest trend to keep the proximity tease subdued. I know a 'L' is a 'L' but losing by 30 is easier for this guy to swallow than at the buzzer. 

On a side note, it would be fun if this forum had a poll option. I imagine we'll see some guidance corrections today: Would you rather be in Birmingham, Atlanta, or Charlotte at this stage of the game? 

[Jed33]

Well my parents live in Birmingham now, so I will root for them to get in on it. Granted they are on the NE side of it. I still expect them to be impacted by it to some degree. 

[tnweathernut]

52 minutes ago, *Flash* said:

This is going to be an historic storm for places that may not see snow for a decade (or more) after this. At ths point, I'd rather not see a northwest trend to keep the proximity tease subdued. I know a 'L' is a 'L' but losing by 30 is easier for this guy to swallow than at the buzzer. 

On a side note, it would be fun if this forum had a poll option. I imagine we'll see some guidance corrections today: Would you rather be in Birmingham, Atlanta, or Charlotte at this stage of the game? 

If you got downsloped with this last system in northeast TN, and you’ve seen several runs of the CMC tease SE/far east TN with next weeks system, you’d be ok with a bit of a northwest trend and a shot at a light snow event.  Im guessing these guys/gals are willing to sacrifice historic gulf coast snow for it.  Pretty sure those guys moved down there so they wouldn’t see snow anyway……. lol

Besides, when was the last time Jeff scored twice in a 10 day period??

[jaxjagman]

12 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

If you got downsloped with this last system in northeast TN, and you’ve seen several runs of the CMC tease SE/far east TN with next weeks system, you’d be ok with a bit of a northwest trend and a shot at a light snow event.  Im guessing these guys/gals are willing to sacrifice historic gulf coast snow for it.  Pretty sure those guys moved down there so they wouldn’t see snow anyway……. lol

Besides, when was the last time Jeff scored twice in a 10 day period??

Alot of people move in those parts the same as Florida to escape the cold in winter,guess that will backfire on them this year..lol

[Matthew70]

Does anyone know why this is happening?

 

Allen Media Group, who owns and operates 22 local "big 4" television stations across the US, and also coincidentally, The Weather Channel, has decided to cut costs by eliminating the jobs of every local meteorologist at all of their stations. all of them. 

[Knoxtron]

36 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

Does anyone know why this is happening?

 

Allen Media Group, who owns and operates 22 local "big 4" television stations across the US, and also coincidentally, The Weather Channel, has decided to cut costs by eliminating the jobs of every local meteorologist at all of their stations. all of them. 

Dang, that sucks. Supposedly they are doing this to "hub" their local weather forecasts from the main TWC headquarters in Atlanta to save money... 

https://www.newscaststudio.com/2025/01/17/allen-media-meterologist-layoffs/

 

Here's the affiliated stations from Allen Media website, no idea how this would correlate to fired local forecasters.

[Daniel Boone]

5 minutes ago, Knoxtron said:

Dang, that sucks. Supposedly they are doing this to "hub" their local weather forecasts from the main TWC headquarters in Atlanta to save money... 

https://www.newscaststudio.com/2025/01/17/allen-media-meterologist-layoffs/

 

Here's the affiliated stations from Allen Media website, no idea how this would correlate to fired local forecasters.

All I know is the Soros Corporation recently bought several Media Companies. Whether they own that one i don't know. Why regardless, is anyone's guess at this point I guess. 

[Greyhound]

Does anyone know why this is happening?
 
Allen Media Group, who owns and operates 22 local "big 4" television stations across the US, and also coincidentally, The Weather Channel, has decided to cut costs by eliminating the jobs of every local meteorologist at all of their stations. all of them. 

Will be interesting when a local severe event breaks out.


.

[jaxjagman]

2 hours ago, Greyhound said:

Will be interesting when a local severe event breaks out.


.

Not really,they only cover severe during prime time.But this is the classic for them still to this day

 

[Matthew70]

So I just need to make it thru the next 2-3 days then warming temps start settling in.  Cold & dry can take a hike.  Bring me 50-60 with sunshine.