Carvers Gap Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 The 0z GEPS had this after multiple waves of energy along a stalled front. This is the last in the series...just a little later than the GEFS. (please refer to my last two posts as this started a new page) Overrunning has a very strong signal(so far) on modeling. Still 7-9 days out...this will 100% change with smaller details yet to be worked out. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 I would also add this. There are some clippers this week which may have light impacts on the northern Plateau, SE KY(especially), SW VA(especiallly), and NE TN(especially higher elevations). 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 The 12z CMC has the overrunning event. The 12z GFS was too fast with the cold. CMC is potent. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Euro is generally better with the MJO but it struggles in a couple phases. Always a trade off with NWP. Regardless they both stay cold CFS/EC weeklies. Friday was terrific in Chattanooga*, but I still want more snow! 12 hours ago, vortexse93 said: Winter wx is not my strong suit, especially at long range intervals but would like to know a little more on why the Euro is out to lunch when using the MJO? *yes the sleet was disappointing and ate up QPF, but we hit our snow stretch target first! 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 The 12z GFS has the same pattern as the CMC....just has it in Charleston, SC. It has been in error every, single time this winter when it does this at range. IMHO that pattern is coming back northwest....maybe by a lot. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 The 0z Euo had this. I think this is the more likely scenario based on recent winters. That said, I think blending the CMC, Euro, and GFS has yielded pretty good results. The Euro nailed this last system. edit: The 0z EPS looks much more like the AIFS at 6z. Pretty good look on the EPS, and again, a very strong signal. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9697 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 7 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: The 0z Euo had this. I think this is the more likely scenario based on recent winters. That said, I think blending the CMC, Euro, and GFS has yielded pretty good results. The Euro nailed this last system. edit: The 0z EPS looks much more like the AIFS at 6z. Pretty good look on the EPS, and again, a very strong signal. So do we think this would be doing the northwest shift as we get closer? Probably too soon to tell. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Just now, matt9697 said: So do we think this would be doing the northwest shift as we get closer? Probably too soon to tell. The Euro would be my go-to until American modeling evens out. Its ensemble(EPS) was a statewide winter storm of varying precip types. Definitely too soon for details. During recent winters, the cold has not been able to get over the Plateau(cold for overrunning is generally low to the ground compared to other events). But way too early to know. Snowpack will almost surely have an impact on how far the cold can make it southeast. During recent winters, it didn't have the skids greased with snow. Cold getting to the Apps is plausible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9697 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said: The Euro would be my go-to until American modeling evens out. Its ensemble(EPS) was a statewide winter storm of varying precip types. Definitely too soon for details. During recent winters, the cold has not been able to get over the Plateau(cold for overrunning is generally low to the ground compared to other events). But way too early to know. Snowpack will almost surely have an impact on how far the cold can make it southeast. During recent winters, it didn't have the skids greased with snow. Cold getting to the Apps is plausible. Sounds good, so, it sounds like we have almost the same amount of tracking time with this system that we have had with the previous system. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, matt9697 said: Sounds good, so, it sounds like we have almost the same amount of tracking time with this system that we have had with the previous system. This is a good example of what we see with overrunning. We see a big high sliding into the Plains with a southeast ridge (SER) flexing a bit. You can see the SER pretty clearly hear with the ridge east of the Apps. Cold would theoretically bank against the western slopes of the Apps or against the western slopes of the Plateau. The GOM would be open for business as precip would be pulled northeast by the SER. At this range it is very tough to know the location of the stalled boundary, because modeling likely won't have strength of the cold air mass modeled well. This is the 12z GEFS...most recent run. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Pretty excited with what the Euro AI is cooking up in that time frame. It was nearly perfect with this past storm from D8 or D9. It had no wild run to run swings, and pretty much got the south of 40 snow correct and the north of 40 relatively lower QPF but slightly better ratios correct. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 12z Euro looks good. I will give the GFS some credit on this. All of those will runs(where it had one storm right after the other) might not be too far off. Location is TBD, but the storms are showing up now. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: 12z Euro looks good. I will give the GFS some credit on this. All of those will runs(where it had one storm right after the other) might not be too far off. Location is TBD, but the storms are showing up now. The GFS since it's upgrade a few years ago is great at sniffing out storms. It just has trouble with the finer details once they get close. Seems like all the American modeling does. The RGEM regularly outperforms the NAM suite, even the 3k. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Man. @tnweathernutbout to hit the "No!" button. I might be with him on this. Ack. Apparent temps. This didn't verify the first time models were almost universally showing this. However, with more snowpack....this is often what comes after overrunning events. Time will tell. 2 1 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9697 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 15 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Man. @tnweathernutbout to hit the "No!" button. I might be with him on this. Ack. Apparent temps. This didn't verify the first time models were almost universally showing this. However, with more snowpack....this is often what comes after overrunning events. Time will tell. What are the actual temps? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9697 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 4 minutes ago, matt9697 said: What are the actual temps? I got them ~ 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Haven't looked much at this time frame yet, but just at quick glance....keep an eye on the gulf. That is a classic signature showing on all the models. Fronts that stall in the gulf at that angle are notorious for spinning a LP formation. What's showing now could be the beginning of the models sniffing that out. If you want a true old fashioned amped up Miller A or Apps Runner..that's setup is how you get it across the southeast. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 WPC/CPC risks at the same time periods Jan 18-24. What could go wrong? Please no ice overrunning. Can we order up more snow? With the jet stream buried and roaring, things may show up inside 5 days at any time. 9 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Need the Euro to verify,if its even close with the blocking its showing it will turn quite cold with the map Jeff just showed 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9697 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 14 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: Need the Euro to verify,if its even close with the blocking its showing it will turn quite cold with the map Jeff just showed Sure hope we dont turn real cold with bunch of snow or ice covering everything 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 18z GEFS mean with nice little bump...couple more members showing the Miller A/Apps Runner look 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 I dont think we have the blocking for a storm next weekend like WPC was talking about earlier,the blocking dont seem to be there and both the GFS and Euro shows a active southern jet going into the OV,this should scream cutter and maybe cold chasing rain and maybe if cold can catch up possibly some higher elevation wrap around,maybe it will change,dunno right now 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortexse93 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 5 hours ago, nrgjeff said: WPC/CPC risks at the same time periods Jan 18-24. What could go wrong? Please no ice overrunning. Can we order up more snow? With the jet stream buried and roaring, things may show up inside 5 days at any time. My main concern for Central MS is exactly that. Temps in that time range will be freezing with multiple rounds of precip chances. I am keeping an eye on it for sure. More concern with it After MLK Day than before. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 hour ago, vortexse93 said: My main concern for Central MS is exactly that. Temps in that time range will be freezing with multiple rounds of precip chances. I am keeping an eye on it for sure. More concern with it After MLK Day than before. Maybe,im not sure what will happen,everything could be suppressed like Jeff mentioned,we had a ULL off the east coast last storm,models are showing a ULR off the east coast right now where ever it is placed,this could suppress the jet and hoping for clippers,to far off to tell right now plus im looking at the Euro long range 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 hour ago, jaxjagman said: I dont think we have the blocking for a storm next weekend like WPC was talking about earlier,the blocking dont seem to be there and both the GFS and Euro shows a active southern jet going into the OV,this should scream cutter and maybe cold chasing rain and maybe if cold can catch up possibly some higher elevation wrap around,maybe it will change,dunno right now Yeah, I noticed that as well. Without blocking or a strong Arctic push into the deep south and at least upoer SE with formidable HP North of the area the STJ would cut into the OV with the western Ridge alignment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 I assume this is going by the ONI,this is Middle Tn IN Nina years 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 10 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: I assume this is going by the ONI,this is Middle Tn IN Nina years The link to above id you care..lol https://www.weather.gov/hun/elnino_winter_study_tennessee3_temperatures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, jaxjagman said: The link to above id you care..lol https://www.weather.gov/hun/elnino_winter_study_tennessee3_temperatures https://www.weather.gov/hun/lanina_winter_study_tennessee3_temperatures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 The storm next weekend I "think" has been modeled as rain on pretty much every run, ie the first storm is rain. Each successive storm pushes the cold southeast. Just to clarify when I am talking about a system, it will be the storm after the one which rains. The 0z GFS and Euro are very suppressed. The CMC is very similar to its 12z run. I would guess that the GFS and Euro are overdoing suppression yet again. The 12z GEFS has the second storm on roughly January 20th. The overrunning event is pressed into E TN, W NC, and the Research Triangle. I think that is probably where we want it as it has room room to work back. The 0z Euro has a decent snowstorm which mimics the 12z GEFS track almost exactly. So, there is a little bit of agreement there even at this range. That is a pretty classic track for E TN and Carolina snows. We tracked a bunch of those between 2000 and 2015 or so. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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