beavis1729 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Way out there, of course...and it's only one Op run...but the 0z Euro brings down the motherload Nice temperature contrast too. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Nice hit this time on the GFS. Anafrontal system with most of the moisture behind it. We've scored a few times that way lately. It was a staple in the 70s/80s. Doesn't work for Chattanooga, but most from the mid-state East pick up 3-6 inches that run. It's been moving forward in time. Also, as noted, the Euro is frigid late run, we'll see if that changes. Last night D15 was highs in the 10s and lows near or just below 0. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Man, that Euro run was banging the drum again. It's what this pattern was initially advertised as. Below 0 cold, a snow event, then suppression with snow in Savannah and Jacksonville. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Are we ready to talk about this? Too soon? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Are we ready to talk about this? Too soon? That's Pacific domination. That's why Savannah is in the snow bullseye. I saw the other day that the PDO was finally indicating a possible flip. That may usher in an entirely new winter experience for many people under 30. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 2 minutes ago, John1122 said: That's Pacific domination. That's why Savannah is in the snow bullseye. I saw the other day that the PDO was finally indicating a possible flip. That may usher in an entirely new winter experience for many people under 30. It is the he one feature which can overpower a bad MJO. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 @Daniel Boone1982 was mentioned by JB today. It looks like the temps alignment later in the month. The CPC d8-14 analogs have it. @John1122how was that winter? They can get that 1990 analog off of there! 19990105 19850129 19800124 20090123 19630110 20080118 19910122 19620109 19820110 19820204 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: @Daniel Boone1982 was mentioned by JB today. It looks like the temps alignment later in the month. The CPC d8-14 analogs have it. @John1122how was that winter? They can get that 1990 analog off of there! 19990105 19850129 19800124 20090123 19630110 20080118 19910122 19620109 19820110 19820204 I was just thinking earlier today that this January is reminding me of the early 80's one's. 4 rather duds in that list ; 2008, 2009, 1991 and 1999. The other's were all good. All four of the duds were Nina's. I wonder if that was factored into the Equation. ?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: @Daniel Boone1982 was mentioned by JB today. It looks like the temps alignment later in the month. The CPC d8-14 analogs have it. @John1122how was that winter? They can get that 1990 analog off of there! 19990105 19850129 19800124 20090123 19630110 20080118 19910122 19620109 19820110 19820204 That date in January of 1982 kicked off a week of cold, snowy weather, that finally was capped off by the massive ice storm of 1982. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 minute ago, John1122 said: That date in January of 1982 kicked off a week of cold, snowy weather, that finally was capped off by the massive ice storm of 1982. Several Arctic fronts went through that Month as well. Also some Valley wide Snow storms( 4-6 inchers) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 minute ago, Daniel Boone said: Several Arctic fronts went through that Month as well. Also some Valley wide Snow storms( 4-6 inchers) It was one of our most severe winters. I had a day with a below zero high and some negative teens for lows. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Also, thinking back, wasn't that December similar to this one albeit a bit colder and snowier ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 9 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: Also, thinking back, wasn't that December similar to this one albeit a bit colder and snowier ? I was living with the Philistines that winter(Orlando). I missed my only two Tennessee winters and two football seasons while living in that furnace. I missed the World's Fair win over Bama and the 82 winter. I gotta a lot of great memories from Disney and Epcot....but no Tenn football, no mountains, and no winter just didn't jive with me! That said, the 18z EURO AIFS stalls that frontal boundary at the Apps just after 240(edit). It has an overrunning even modeled - lasts 48-72 hours. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 28 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: Also, thinking back, wasn't that December similar to this one albeit a bit colder and snowier ? December of 81 was a good bit colder and had a big snow just before Christmas. It was dry, about 60 percent of normal precip. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 8 minutes ago, John1122 said: December of 81 was a good bit colder and had a big snow just before Christmas. It was dry, about 60 percent of normal precip. Yeah, it was on the day before Christmas break started here. They had to turn school out early. We only got around 4 inches that day but, your area got more. There were some large Flakes I recall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 2 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: Yeah, it was on the day before Christmas break started here. They had to turn school out early. We only got around 4 inches that day but, your area got more. There were some large Flakes I recall. 7 inches here, it was an epic front end thump that switched to rain and 33 degrees. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Here you go, @matt9697. I took a screenshot of the ensembles when they "hang up" or pause. Looks like the 20th or 21st are a window for overruning. If this look continues for several days, I would be surprised for their not to be some type of event like that. Lots of cold and a little bit of SER. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9697 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Here you go, @matt9697. I took a screenshot of the ensembles when they "hang up" or pause. Looks like the 20th or 21st are a window for overruning. If this look continues for several days, I would be surprised for their not to be some type of event like that. Lots of cold and a little bit of SER. Thank you @Carvers Gaptrying to gauge whether I need to order another rick or two of firewood, have two and a half but have had to have a fire almost every day this year, even when it is a little warmer, object being to prevent the unit from kicking on, as much as I like TVA and all, would prefer not to have a $400 electric bill! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Long range i still believe the Euro is wrong.Seems possible all its doing is seeing destructive interference from Rossby,Kelvin Waves 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 The 6z Euro AIFS is bitterly cold late in its run. It has been really good at spotting cold air masses at range. Looks like it also has plenty of chance for winter embedded. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 5 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: Here you go, @matt9697. I took a screenshot of the ensembles when they "hang up" or pause. Looks like the 20th or 21st are a window for overruning. If this look continues for several days, I would be surprised for their not to be some type of event like that. Lots of cold and a little bit of SER. Almost entire lower 48 colder than average. Looks MJO Ph 1 footprint alot. Of course, that could be just coincidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Slight risk of much below normal temperatures for portions of the Ohio, Tennessee, Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys, Southeast, and Mid-Atlantic, Fri-Sat, Jan 17-18. Slight risk of much below normal temperatures for parts of the Northwest, Rockies, Central and Northern Plains, and the Upper and Middle Mississippi Valley, Sun-Wed, Jan 19-22. Slight risk of much below normal temperatures for parts of the Southern Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley, Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, Southeast and Great Lakes, Mon-Thu, Jan 20-23. Slight risk of heavy precipitation for portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, Southern Plains, and Tennessee Valley and Southeast, Fri-Tue, Jan 17-21. Slight risk of heavy snow for portions of the Central and Southern Rockies and Plains, Middle and Upper Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys, Great Lakes, Central and Southern Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, Fri-Tue, Jan 17-21. Slight risk of high winds for portions of the Central and Southern Plains, Middle Mississippi Valley, and Great Lakes, Sat-Mon, Jan 18-21. Slight risk for periods of high winds for much of the Four Corners and surrounding areas, Fri-Mon, Jan 17-20. Detailed Summary 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Link,forgot it https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Knoxtron Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 3 hours ago, jaxjagman said: Link,forgot it https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortexse93 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 First I want to apologize for being late to the party and secondly this my first time posting within this thread but wanted to say my two cents regarding this event for the 12 to 24 hours. Wintry precip should be ongoing across AR and should start to see some of that wintry precip into West TN into northern MS within the next few hours and well into Friday with majority of the wintry precip ending by Friday night. For along I-40 and north will see mainly snow with amounts of 4" to 6" widespread. However, model guidance has beginning to increase those amounts closer to 10" to even a foot of snow in some places. This will be highly dependent on where the heavier snowbands will be located. For those south of the TN/MS state line, will see more of wintry mix throughout the night into early morning. The wintry mix eventually transition to snow as temps are expected to hit freezing. Those in North MS may not see snow as the there is a warm nose extends well into northern MS. This is where I suspect the freezing rain and sleet will be more persistent and could see some accumulations. What makes tomorrow forecast difficult for northern MS, is the location of the warm nose at the 850 mb and where that freezing will settle out as that will determine who gets what throughout the night into tomorrow afternoon. If sfc temps remain at or below freezing and a warm layer is still present, could very well see more freezing rain/sleet accumulations than snow. However, if temps both at the sfc and at the 850 mb are both below freezing, will see more snow/sleet than freezing rain. Regardless, I do suspect wintry precip accumulation across the region, but for some it will be matter of how much snow; while others it will be a question of what and how much. Please see images below for references of the precip type and 850 mb temp. Model data from 21z RAP from COD Weather. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 While I'm waiting on the atmosphere to moisten up, thought I'd post some meteograms from around the time frame Carver's has been mentioning: Crossville: Elizabethton: Nashville: Memphis: Knoxville: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 I know everyone is focused on the current storm, but that was an absolute banger of a 6z GFS run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9697 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 2 minutes ago, Wurbus said: I know everyone is focused on the current storm, but that was an absolute banger of a 6z GFS run. Right! I have been surprised to see that no one has said anything yet. Seems like the current storm started further south than the forum area and moved north over time in modeling, if that is the case, we could be looking at some hefty totals for the TN Valley for the month of January in the snow column! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midwoodian Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Right! I have been surprised to see that no one has said anything yet. Seems like the current storm started further south than the forum area and moved north over time in modeling, if that is the case, we could be looking at some hefty totals for the TN Valley for the month of January in the snow column! Can you post a pic?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 hour ago, midwoodian said: Can you post a pic? . This was the full run. All of the additional snow after the current event was post 200 hours, so should be taken with a grain of salt. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now