TellicoWx Posted Sunday at 04:39 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:39 AM CMC...looks similar to GFS location wise for accumulation...just a little less totals. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Sunday at 04:40 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:40 AM Canadian stays in camp suppression and then fires up another piece of energy after this storm passes and gives us some snow. Not interested in can kicking, but several models have the second potential snow even now. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted Sunday at 04:47 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:47 AM Taking this from another board. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted Sunday at 04:48 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:48 AM 0z Ukie doesn't look to be messing around like the other lol. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted Sunday at 04:51 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:51 AM Better run for it anyway...kind of shart itself as it moved out of N. MS..but still statewide. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Icy Hot Posted Sunday at 05:05 AM Share Posted Sunday at 05:05 AM I'd like to suggest that when we are tracking and commenting on multiple storms, that everyone please ensure you specifically designate which storm you are commenting on. The forum is getting really hard to follow with so many non-descriptive comments. Not trying to complain, just really interested in following what everyone is thinking. Appreciate all the input. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted Sunday at 05:15 AM Share Posted Sunday at 05:15 AM 7 minutes ago, Icy Hot said: I'd like to suggest that when we are tracking and commenting on multiple storms, that everyone please ensure you specifically designate which storm you are commenting on. The forum is getting really hard to follow with so many non-descriptive comments. Not trying to complain, just really interested in following what everyone is thinking. Appreciate all the input. Right now any reference to the possibility of winter wx is for the Jan.10 onward in this forum. There is a separate thread for the Jan.5-6 storm that will mainly be rain for most in the state of TN. Maybe some ice at the onset. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted Sunday at 05:41 AM Share Posted Sunday at 05:41 AM 37 minutes ago, Icy Hot said: I'd like to suggest that when we are tracking and commenting on multiple storms, that everyone please ensure you specifically designate which storm you are commenting on. The forum is getting really hard to follow with so many non-descriptive comments. Not trying to complain, just really interested in following what everyone is thinking. Appreciate all the input. Yeah I'm definitely guilty of focusing on the primary bigger impact event when there are more than one on the horizon. I can see how that can be confusing. I echo Matthew in that for most folks tomorrow's storm likely is not going to be very impactful in comparison with the 10th for most of the forum. Not to say tomorrows storm is a nothing storm I wouldn't be surprised with freezing rain that some areas get a nice punch before it switches to regular liquid. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Sunday at 06:03 AM Share Posted Sunday at 06:03 AM Euro is a board wide hit but has some warm nosing up to about Knoxville in the East as the storm turns into an Apps runner. Big totals west side of 6+, 4-5 Plateau, 2-4 eastern areas. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted Sunday at 06:03 AM Share Posted Sunday at 06:03 AM The storm later this week Jan. 10-11 definitely is showing to be a nice solid hit statewide. The Euro is steady in the camp now. Looks like a solid 4-8” across the state. Now if the temps are colder then the rates will be higher than the normal 10:1. Good times ahead. Let’s reel in this big dog. Woof woof! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted Sunday at 06:04 AM Share Posted Sunday at 06:04 AM Just now, John1122 said: Euro is a board wide hit but has some warm nosing up to about Knoxville in the East as the storm turns into an Apps runner. Big totals west side of 6+, 4-5 Plateau, 2-4 eastern areas. Thanks John for keeping us updated & reeling this is for us all! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted Sunday at 12:20 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:20 PM In the 4-7 day timeframe my rule is you always want to be in the middle of solutions. If you are hugging one model that's the most amped or the most suppressed 99% of the time you will end up disappointed. This storm we (being Central/Eastern TN) are dead center in the middle of solutions. Take this 6z GEFS shot. A few amped. A few suppressed. The majority in the middle. Look at this EPS average. That's money with onset being 5-6 days out. I think people on twitter and other forums are too caught up tracking run to run OP changes right now. With a phasing system ensembles are a very powerful tool. While OP runs are jumping the last day of trends on ensembles has been stellar. Phasing is always a tight rope. And one that may take another 72 hrs to nail down. 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted Sunday at 12:21 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:21 PM 6z Euro more suppressed than 0z: 6z GFS hopped back into the cutting camp at 6z: Side-by-side comparison at H5: 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted Sunday at 12:33 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:33 PM Looks like the convection in the MC is finally starting to quiet down, with a pretty large convective system in Polynesia: It's been so bad we've almost retrograded to 6 on the RMMs: 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Sunday at 04:00 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:00 PM The ICON shifted way north and nailed Tennessee. The 06z GFS ended up building a glacier late run after the next weekend storm passed (oddly except for all of Knox County) so the pattern may be loaded or the GFS may just be loaded. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted Sunday at 04:17 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:17 PM Woof woof! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted Sunday at 04:20 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:20 PM 17 minutes ago, John1122 said: The ICON shifted way north and nailed Tennessee. The 06z GFS ended up building a glacier late run after the next weekend storm passed (oddly except for all of Knox County) so the pattern may be loaded or the GFS may just be loaded. If the MJO does go to Ph 1 and blocking continues could be correct. Right now, Pattern is acting like late stage Ph 7 with blocking. Makes sense in a way as it went ph. 7 before going basically COD. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Sunday at 04:22 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:22 PM Boom goes the 12z GFS. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted Sunday at 04:29 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:29 PM CMC has the Great Lakes low, pulling our storm north at 162. Outlier now 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted Sunday at 04:33 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:33 PM 3 minutes ago, Reb said: CMC has the Great Lakes low, pulling our storm north at 162. Outlier now Major ice storm at 171 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted Sunday at 05:05 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:05 PM Hopefully, either the GL is weak or non existent or further East. In February 1972 a Miller A moved up and Phased with a GL Low and produced a widespread Snow Storm fro Tn Valley through the Northeast. 8" here from that one . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Nasty Posted Sunday at 05:14 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:14 PM A lot of the snow maps being posted on various forums look beautiful for my area,, but as usual, I'm keeping my expectations low for the simple fact that WAA can destroy a good snow in Chattanooga. It happened last January. We were 33° with a mix before turning to all rain. Across the Tennessee river and points north got hammered with snow. We were 8 miles away from a 2" minimum snow where the rain/snow line cut off. Portions of north Hamilton County received 8" and even more as you go up the mountains around Dunlap. The thing about Chattanooga is that we might go 5-10 years with minimal snow, but when we do score, it's normally on the extreme high levels. Here's to hoping this could be one of those extremes!Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted Sunday at 05:17 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:17 PM 12z UKIE on board similar to other suite models....just a little further south (where you want it at this range) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Sunday at 05:26 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:26 PM Modeling at from 0z-12z today is picking up on yet another cold shot around the 20th. Long way out there, but Weeklies controls have seen this off-and-on for some time. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Sunday at 05:29 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:29 PM As John noted, the 6z GFS(full run) was pretty much insane. That map might be worth posting just for posterity. 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Sunday at 05:38 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:38 PM The 12z Euro will hold serve compared to 0z. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Sunday at 05:41 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:41 PM Good pass on the Euro. The Jan 10-11 system fits the 12z ICON, GFS, CMC, and to some extent the UKMET. Pretty close grouping. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Sunday at 05:50 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:50 PM The 12z Euro is going the route of the 6z GFS. It has another storm around 276. I wonder if modeling is feeling that NAO now...sure seems like it. Combo of western ridging and Atlantic blocking should yield those runs from time to time. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Sunday at 05:54 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:54 PM Sad to see all these runs of a storm getting sheared out like the 12z Euro. But I guess quite literally everything is on the table still, as models are showing every possibility from run to run. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted Sunday at 06:15 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:15 PM Late week likely has a ceiling keeping a positively tilted trough. This isn’t a terrible thing for a more widespread snow, however it also provides the environment where we lose lift and the moisture feed drys up the further east you go. The higher resolution Euro may be correct in picking this up. Better for temps, worse for totals, especially east and northeast through the mid south into the southern apps. Still a ways to go, but good to see modeling start to come together around a general track as we get closer. Let’s see if we can reel in a winter event, regardless of size. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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