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Winter 2024/2025 January Thread


AMZ8990
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NWS Morristown social media:4dbd445697ba8c6fc222459d905e4dda.jpg0bbd4d5b4a7704ae2c8763de2ed6a421.jpg

I'm always unsettled in these situations because I can recall so many times freezing rain began before sunrise and warm air advection forecast to erode lower levels where I live in the valley near the eastern escarpment of the plateau and it ends up never eroding the lower levels and is an ice storm start to finish.


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The red is pretty much over me. 

I will note that they seem to be looking at it a bit oddly imo, as they are forecasting the highest elevations as the most likely ice spots when it generally is just the opposite. Cold gets trapped in lower bowls and elevations, especially above 2500 feet or so, are way warmer from the WAA. 

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The red is pretty much over me. 
I will note that they seem to be looking at it a bit oddly imo, as they are forecasting the highest elevations as the most likely ice spots when it generally is just the opposite. Cold gets trapped in lower bowls and elevations, especially above 2500 feet or so, are way warmer from the WAA. 
Yeah I noticed that in their graphic that it looks like the high spots are highlighted and it's the opposite in these situations. It's weird like the high terrain that 75 follows is red, but Elk Valley below is orange that doesn't make a lot of sense.

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22 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Probably wrong but the ICON drops heavy snow along the border counties with the current weekend event. 

The 18z Euro had 4-6 10:1 ratio. Possible heavy front end Thump. Dec. 5, 02 comes to mind although no ice involved. We picked up 5 inches before changing to rain from a LP in Western Ky that slid East and transferred to Coast. It dumped all Snow from an east west line Jackson Kentucky Northward and across Northern and central VA. You may remember that one. Think tn line South had predominantly rain.

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23 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

The 18z Euro had 4-6 10:1 ratio. Possible heavy front end Thump. Dec. 5, 02 comes to mind although no ice involved. We picked up 5 inches before changing to rain from a LP in Western Ky that slid East and transferred to Coast. It dumped all Snow from an east west line Jackson Kentucky Northward and across Northern and central VA. You may remember that one. Think tn line South had predominantly rain.

Also had 5 inches from that one, then the 850s warmed and we got 1.5 inches of cold rain. 

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7 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

I couldn't remember anything about that area.  I do remember Bristol getting 5 as well and Johnson City getting just Rain.. We wound up with a soaking after changing over as well. 

I'm not sure what drove it, as far as the rain snow line. I assume purely a SW to NE line. Tazewell got an inch, but the Newcomb station a few miles from me as the crow flies, but under 1000 feet elevation, just about the lowest spot in Campbell not underwater, also got 5 inches. So it wasn't elevation driven. 

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CMC with ice in the Panhandle....that has been wrong every, single time this year.  At 500, the energy gets sheared into about a 3,000 mile ribbon about 200 miles wide.   Now, I still think the trailer will cause some mischief as it hits that stalled streamer(no other word for it that I can think of).  Gonna be like hitting a hot wire.  

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