Reb Posted Friday at 04:24 AM Share Posted Friday at 04:24 AM 0z GFS not going to be suppressed. Spitting out a monster 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Friday at 04:33 AM Share Posted Friday at 04:33 AM Looks like last year's January storm but included the parts who missed last year in East TN and Western NC. 4 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted Friday at 05:00 AM Share Posted Friday at 05:00 AM GFS trying to follow with another system possibly a few days after the second one 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Friday at 05:19 AM Share Posted Friday at 05:19 AM UKIE joined the south shift/colder camp on the weekend storm. Gives mby an inch or so of front end snow now. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Friday at 05:31 AM Share Posted Friday at 05:31 AM The GFS looks beautiful but it would be historic for the Dallas area, and it's hard to ever count on a place setting a record for snowfall in a given season, over the course of 10 days. That said, the all time Dallas record was, I believe, in 1977. They've had 5 double digit seasonal snowfall years since 1898. None over 20 inches. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Friday at 05:56 AM Share Posted Friday at 05:56 AM The Euro didn't quite match the GFS but it took a big step towards it from last night. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Friday at 06:53 AM Share Posted Friday at 06:53 AM The EPS is steadily dropping south with the frozen shield for Sunday/Monday. It just gave an inch or so of snow to the Tn/Ky/Tn/Va border areas. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Friday at 08:27 AM Share Posted Friday at 08:27 AM GFS Graphiccast 18z was .3 to .6qpf (most areas .5 or .6) with very good surface and very good 850s for the event next weekend. Surface for most areas in the 20s, and low 20s or upper 10s 850. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Friday at 09:04 AM Share Posted Friday at 09:04 AM The 0z Euro AI gives mby .18 with 850s below freezing and surface temps in the 20s for the start of the this weekend event. Mid-state border counties don't have the 850s but are below freezing at the surface with around .20+ qpf falling. In the East the sub-freezing line is down to 40, around .1 to .2 falls along the 40 corridor with temps below freezing at the surface at hour 66. At 72, around .2 to .3 more precip has falling, 850s are above freezing but from Eastern Scott to North Knox and points E the surface is still below 32 with another .2 to .3 precip falling. For next weekend event, the Euro AI gives just about the same footprint of precip as the 18z GFS Graphicast noted above. Temps are slightly warmer at the surface west of the plateau, 33-35ish, but 850s are well below freezing. Most areas Plateau and East are upper 20s to lower 30s. .3 to .5 qpf falls. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Friday at 09:11 AM Share Posted Friday at 09:11 AM The RGEM is pushing frozen to the southern Tennessee border areas now. It even has some freezing rain into NE Alabama. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Friday at 09:13 AM Share Posted Friday at 09:13 AM The warmth is having trouble getting over the western Plateau on there. Temps are in the 29-30 range along the 75 corridor and eastward on the RGEM. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Friday at 09:15 AM Share Posted Friday at 09:15 AM North of 40 Knox to Nashville is .2 to .5 ice on the RGEM, with .1 to .2 south of 40. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted Friday at 12:02 PM Share Posted Friday at 12:02 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9697 Posted Friday at 12:21 PM Share Posted Friday at 12:21 PM 16 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: Interesting video; I feel the same way as he does, would not really trust the american modeling, as we have discussed, tends to lose storms. The TN Valley will be in a unique situation by that time in that we will have been cold preceding the storm we wont have the usual saving grace of things melting as it falls. He did mention a mid-week system for this next week, but I had not heard much about that one. We may be in a pattern where threats are not "seen" on modeling until 72 hours out. Now local TV mets are saying severe weather Sunday afternoon after a morning of ice, not sure I have ever seen that before but sure is more interesting this year than last! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted Friday at 12:36 PM Share Posted Friday at 12:36 PM Maybe a thread if the ice is still there after 12z? The 6z RGEM would be really interesting for me as John pointed out. Normally I ride more with the central valley even though I'm at 1300' on the plateau, but I am right on the edge of the plateau so I get warm nosed pretty quickly in miller B style systems. Can the CAD bank up against the plateau like the 6z RGEM shows? 6z NAM banks some up CAD against the mountains above Clinton and Norris, but nothing like the 6z RGEM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9697 Posted Friday at 12:46 PM Share Posted Friday at 12:46 PM 9 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Maybe a thread if the ice is still there after 12z? The 6z RGEM would be really interesting for me as John pointed out. Normally I ride more with the central valley even though I'm at 1300' on the plateau, but I am right on the edge of the plateau so I get warm nosed pretty quickly in miller B style systems. Can the CAD bank up against the plateau like the 6z RGEM shows? 6z NAM banks some up CAD against the mountains above Clinton and Norris, but nothing like the 6z RGEM. That ice is getting too close to me north of Nashville - dont think it matters much if we warm eventually if we get slammed with almost a half inch of ice, the damage will be done by that time! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted Friday at 01:02 PM Share Posted Friday at 01:02 PM I would love to see what the models spit out when we get to about Jan 12. I can't ever remember seeing the MJO amp up like below in phased 1 and 2 while I have been posting. I get that it is just one index, but we've had to deal with over amped phases 5 and 6 for soooooo long over the past what...7 years? The GEFS (second image below) even has one member off the charts in 2 lol. Please keep in mind that isn't me claiming a certain snow storm, I'm a sicko who likes to see snow on the models almost as much as in reality. The tropics seem to be trying to do something different for once, let's see what happens. I'd still like to see less convection over the Maritime Continent. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Friday at 02:10 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:10 PM Morning thoughts.... 1. I know MRX says ice doesn't fit climatology. However, modeling has continued to shift ice to the TN/KY border and south of it. MRX usually know, but modeling has me looking over my shoulder. That trend is going to need to monitored. At some point, modeling should start trending back north, but every once in a while modeling doesn't sense the cold...and just keeps pushing south. The RGEM caught this trend first. It is a good canary in the coal mine if it continues southward. 2. The 6z GFS was a miss with the system on the 10th. Players are still on the field. It just missed the phase as it formed a cutoff over northern Baja, and held energy back. JB would call that a pay me now or pay me later piece of energy. Why? Well, it comes out later in the next cycle of storms, and brings snow to similar places. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted Friday at 02:21 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:21 PM 12z NAM bringing ice north of 40 in middle TN 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted Friday at 02:47 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:47 PM Hello. I live in Northern VA and am a participate in the Mid-Atlantic region forum but have a home in Southwestern VA (Clintwood). I am staying here over the holidays and first half of January. Wanted to say hello and will be lurking here to following the upcoming winter storm(s). Currently 33 degrees with light to occasional moderate snow. Snow sticking to all surfaces. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted Friday at 02:57 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:57 PM 6z Euro AIFS is just a beautiful Miller A for TN Valley the second system: 24 hour qpf 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted Friday at 03:05 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:05 PM 12z RGEM coming in with a slightly stronger high and slightly further south lp for jan 6. (last 4 runs): 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted Friday at 03:08 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:08 PM The temp difference between the RGEM & NAM at 48 hours is massive. Just looking at Knoxville, the temp is 13 degrees on the RGEM and 30 degrees on the NAM. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted Friday at 03:19 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:19 PM RGEM still tries to bank cold air up against what I call the Frozen Head mts: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted Friday at 03:33 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:33 PM Hello Cincinnati!!! Big time Snow! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted Friday at 03:44 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 03:44 PM 2 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: Hello Cincinnati!!! Big time Snow! I was looking at that also, those are some big numbers for sure! I used to live just north of Cincinnati in Middletown Ohio. It Looks like they’re expecting 6-10, that drive from Louisville to Cincinnati will be treacherous. That huge decline/hill at the ky/oh border as you come into Cincy from Kentucky is going to be a problem I would think. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted Friday at 04:15 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:15 PM GFS reverting back to its 0z look. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Friday at 04:21 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:21 PM It's baaaaa-aaaack. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Friday at 04:21 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:21 PM Not sure why the GFS shows some light sleet to start the system over the east. It shows it over me with a -5 850 and 26 degree surface temp. Mid and West forum getting a good snow so far though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Friday at 04:23 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:23 PM This is the type of run we want to see on modeling at this range. I haven't looked, but am guessing it managed to phase. Really good look. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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