Winter 2024/2025 January Thread

[AMZ8990]

 Winter discussion/outlook for January 2025.

[John1122]

If the Euro wins, we're going to be spending a good portion of January shivering. Snow and ice also look to be on tap. If the GFS is correct, we may still get there, but later.

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, John1122 said:

If the Euro wins, we're going to be spending a good portion of January shivering. Snow and ice also look to be on tap. If the GFS is correct, we may still get there, but later.

Yeah, the GFS is likely "thinking" the MJO is stalling in p6 and gradually getting into 7 later. That's what it's output's look like to me.

[Carvers Gap]

The GFS is just slower by about 5-7 days at this point.  It has been about a week behind on January for a while.  Now, the one think to watch is it is trying to tuck a trough under a PNA/EPO ridge.  That can happen, and we have seen it happen recently.  There is a very slight trend in afternoon modeling to slow the trough in the Southwest, but again, I think the 12z GFS was and is an outlier.  The 18z GFS has moved that trough along a bit more, but still leaves it back enough that the next trough digs right where it was.  

[John1122]

It feels like the Euro A.I ate the DGEX. It's just relentless, 1960s/1970s patterns inbound. 

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

The GFS is just slower by about 5-7 days at this point.  It has been about a week behind on January for a while.  Now, the one think to watch is it is trying to tuck a trough under a PNA/EPO ridge.  That can happen, and we have seen it happen recently.  There is a very slight trend in afternoon modeling to slow the trough in the Southwest, but again, I think the 12z GFS was and is an outlier.  The 18z GFS has moved that trough along a bit more, but still leaves it back enough that the next trough digs right where it was.  

The concern is definitely legit as we've all witnessed and discussed many times. I hate when that happens as many times a System just bowls down into that area over and over continuously pulling the Trough back. Hopefully, that doesn't happen. 

     Other Model Suites should start showing some semblance of the possibility in the next few Day's if the GFS is onto something.

[Daniel Boone]

44 minutes ago, John1122 said:

It feels like the Euro A.I ate the DGEX. It's just relentless, 1960s/1970s patterns inbound. 

Wouldn't that be a Snow Lovers paradise !

[Carvers Gap]

Ultimately, all models are getting to the same place which is a very cold North American continent.  The 12z Euro AI looks like a good compromise.  I have seen multiple comments across forums about the NA chinook wrecking January, and that it would take weeks to recover.   That looks to be very incorrect. Look at the 18z GFS and the 12z ECMWF AIFS, and you will see how quickly NA can cool off.  The Euro control is brutally cold FWIW.  While I think there are concerns, I think we will find ourselves in a pretty cold pattern by the end of the first week of January.  That has been a pretty consistent point seen by modeling for several weeks.  The GFS definitely moved towards other modeling at 18z.  I suspect we see some sort of cutoff in the southwest, but the good thing about that....cutoffs in that area can often kick out and create good things here.  

[Daniel Boone]

33 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Ultimately, all models are getting to the same place which is a very cold North American continent.  The 12z Euro AI looks like a good compromise.  I have seen multiple comments across forums about the NA chinook wrecking January, and that it would take weeks to recover.   That looks to be very incorrect. Look at the 18z GFS and the 12z ECMWF AIFS, and you will see how quickly NA can cool off.  The Euro control is brutally cold FWIW.  While I think there are concerns, I think we will find ourselves in a pretty cold pattern by the end of the first week of January.  That has been a pretty consistent point seen by modeling for several weeks.  The GFS definitely moved towards other modeling at 18z.  I suspect we see some sort of cutoff in the southwest, but the good thing about that....cutoffs in that area can often kick out and create good things here.  

Yeah, that's what I was alluding to earlier regarding it sending out pieces of energy taking the low Road. Sliders. Sometimes they can spin up Gulf Lows as well. Used to happen in the 70's fairly regularly.

[Carvers Gap]

 

[John1122]

The GFS bounced our way that time. I don't trust any solution it shows because it's swinging all over still. For entertainment/looking back purposes. 

 

[Carvers Gap]

Looks like the GFS has finally sobered up after a week long bender to the tropics - i.e. it and its ensemble sees the cold now.  I do think it might have been right that the second cold front around the 7-8th will be stronger.  However, it now sees the cold front around the 3rd, and probably was badly wrong with that.  Technically, there is also probably a cold front on NYE, but that one isn't overly cold.  Overnight ensembles look in decent agreement.  I do think we will have some warm-ups between cold shots.  It looks like chances for wintry precip are increasing.  Details at this range will be largely inaccurate, but there should be some fun model runs.

[Carvers Gap]

The 6z Euro AIFS (can be hit or miss) is very cold.  15-20 degree BN departures during January is noteworthy if it verifies.

[Carvers Gap]

The 6z EURO AIFS has the first cold front arriving early(edit) on January 1st.

[Carvers Gap]

Now, that is a trough.

[Carvers Gap]

And this is why I don't sweat chinooks....and it is probably why Native Americans liked them and had a specific name for the event.   In some translations it is "snow eater."  Within just 10-11 days, the snow eater is vanquished on this model run.  That is how quickly things can change.  I grew up watching temps from International Falls, and guessing how long it would take to get cold in Tennessee.

 

[beavis1729]

38 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

And this is why I don't sweat chinooks....and it is probably why Native Americans liked them and had a specific name for the event.   In some translations it is "snow eater."  Within just 10-11 days, the snow eater is vanquished on this model run.  That is how quickly things can change.  I grew up watching temps from International Falls, and guessing how long it would take to get cold in Tennessee.

 

My issue with chinooks is not so much how long the associated warm temps last. It’s that they even occur in the first place, especially during the heart of winter (12/15 to 2/15). Any day 40F and higher is too warm for me in winter, and we’ll probably have 5 consecutive 40+ days next week. Not easy to preserve snow cover and frozen lakes with temps like that. 

I’m a fan of having a part of winter that is sacred and untouchable, in other words it should feel like winter simply because of the calendar instead of having to hope for a certain pattern or teleconnection. In July/August, 95+% of days feel like summer here. Would be nice to have that same experience in winter, at least for a 4-6 week period. 

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z GFS completely caves yet again.  In fact, it almost pops a coastal storm during the same time it stubbornly had a storm over the Four Corners!   
 

It looks like most of our peak winter climatology will be reserved for likely cold weather.  
 

TRI sits at -1.3F BN through Dec 23rd.  That departure will probably sneak slightly AN by the end of the month of December.  January may will mirror December in terms of temp pattern progression.   
 

Sure looks to me like the cold January analogs are going to win the first three weeks of January.  Could that change?  Sure!  

Enjoy!