AMZ8990 Posted Monday at 07:53 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:53 PM Winter discussion/outlook for January 2025. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Monday at 09:05 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:05 PM If the Euro wins, we're going to be spending a good portion of January shivering. Snow and ice also look to be on tap. If the GFS is correct, we may still get there, but later. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted Monday at 10:31 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:31 PM 1 hour ago, John1122 said: If the Euro wins, we're going to be spending a good portion of January shivering. Snow and ice also look to be on tap. If the GFS is correct, we may still get there, but later. Yeah, the GFS is likely "thinking" the MJO is stalling in p6 and gradually getting into 7 later. That's what it's output's look like to me. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Monday at 10:58 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:58 PM The GFS is just slower by about 5-7 days at this point. It has been about a week behind on January for a while. Now, the one think to watch is it is trying to tuck a trough under a PNA/EPO ridge. That can happen, and we have seen it happen recently. There is a very slight trend in afternoon modeling to slow the trough in the Southwest, but again, I think the 12z GFS was and is an outlier. The 18z GFS has moved that trough along a bit more, but still leaves it back enough that the next trough digs right where it was. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Monday at 11:59 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:59 PM It feels like the Euro A.I ate the DGEX. It's just relentless, 1960s/1970s patterns inbound. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted yesterday at 12:44 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:44 AM 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: The GFS is just slower by about 5-7 days at this point. It has been about a week behind on January for a while. Now, the one think to watch is it is trying to tuck a trough under a PNA/EPO ridge. That can happen, and we have seen it happen recently. There is a very slight trend in afternoon modeling to slow the trough in the Southwest, but again, I think the 12z GFS was and is an outlier. The 18z GFS has moved that trough along a bit more, but still leaves it back enough that the next trough digs right where it was. The concern is definitely legit as we've all witnessed and discussed many times. I hate when that happens as many times a System just bowls down into that area over and over continuously pulling the Trough back. Hopefully, that doesn't happen. Other Model Suites should start showing some semblance of the possibility in the next few Day's if the GFS is onto something. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted yesterday at 12:45 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:45 AM 44 minutes ago, John1122 said: It feels like the Euro A.I ate the DGEX. It's just relentless, 1960s/1970s patterns inbound. Wouldn't that be a Snow Lovers paradise ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted yesterday at 01:14 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:14 AM Ultimately, all models are getting to the same place which is a very cold North American continent. The 12z Euro AI looks like a good compromise. I have seen multiple comments across forums about the NA chinook wrecking January, and that it would take weeks to recover. That looks to be very incorrect. Look at the 18z GFS and the 12z ECMWF AIFS, and you will see how quickly NA can cool off. The Euro control is brutally cold FWIW. While I think there are concerns, I think we will find ourselves in a pretty cold pattern by the end of the first week of January. That has been a pretty consistent point seen by modeling for several weeks. The GFS definitely moved towards other modeling at 18z. I suspect we see some sort of cutoff in the southwest, but the good thing about that....cutoffs in that area can often kick out and create good things here. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted yesterday at 01:50 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:50 AM 33 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Ultimately, all models are getting to the same place which is a very cold North American continent. The 12z Euro AI looks like a good compromise. I have seen multiple comments across forums about the NA chinook wrecking January, and that it would take weeks to recover. That looks to be very incorrect. Look at the 18z GFS and the 12z ECMWF AIFS, and you will see how quickly NA can cool off. The Euro control is brutally cold FWIW. While I think there are concerns, I think we will find ourselves in a pretty cold pattern by the end of the first week of January. That has been a pretty consistent point seen by modeling for several weeks. The GFS definitely moved towards other modeling at 18z. I suspect we see some sort of cutoff in the southwest, but the good thing about that....cutoffs in that area can often kick out and create good things here. Yeah, that's what I was alluding to earlier regarding it sending out pieces of energy taking the low Road. Sliders. Sometimes they can spin up Gulf Lows as well. Used to happen in the 70's fairly regularly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted yesterday at 03:07 AM Share Posted yesterday at 03:07 AM 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted yesterday at 05:06 AM Share Posted yesterday at 05:06 AM The GFS bounced our way that time. I don't trust any solution it shows because it's swinging all over still. For entertainment/looking back purposes. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago Looks like the GFS has finally sobered up after a week long bender to the tropics - i.e. it and its ensemble sees the cold now. I do think it might have been right that the second cold front around the 7-8th will be stronger. However, it now sees the cold front around the 3rd, and probably was badly wrong with that. Technically, there is also probably a cold front on NYE, but that one isn't overly cold. Overnight ensembles look in decent agreement. I do think we will have some warm-ups between cold shots. It looks like chances for wintry precip are increasing. Details at this range will be largely inaccurate, but there should be some fun model runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago The 6z Euro AIFS (can be hit or miss) is very cold. 15-20 degree BN departures during January is noteworthy if it verifies. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago The 6z EURO AIFS has the first cold front arriving early(edit) on January 1st. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago Now, that is a trough. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago And this is why I don't sweat chinooks....and it is probably why Native Americans liked them and had a specific name for the event. In some translations it is "snow eater." Within just 10-11 days, the snow eater is vanquished on this model run. That is how quickly things can change. I grew up watching temps from International Falls, and guessing how long it would take to get cold in Tennessee. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago 38 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: And this is why I don't sweat chinooks....and it is probably why Native Americans liked them and had a specific name for the event. In some translations it is "snow eater." Within just 10-11 days, the snow eater is vanquished on this model run. That is how quickly things can change. I grew up watching temps from International Falls, and guessing how long it would take to get cold in Tennessee. My issue with chinooks is not so much how long the associated warm temps last. It’s that they even occur in the first place, especially during the heart of winter (12/15 to 2/15). Any day 40F and higher is too warm for me in winter, and we’ll probably have 5 consecutive 40+ days next week. Not easy to preserve snow cover and frozen lakes with temps like that. I’m a fan of having a part of winter that is sacred and untouchable, in other words it should feel like winter simply because of the calendar instead of having to hope for a certain pattern or teleconnection. In July/August, 95+% of days feel like summer here. Would be nice to have that same experience in winter, at least for a 4-6 week period. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago The 12z GFS completely caves yet again. In fact, it almost pops a coastal storm during the same time it stubbornly had a storm over the Four Corners! It looks like most of our peak winter climatology will be reserved for likely cold weather. TRI sits at -1.3F BN through Dec 23rd. That departure will probably sneak slightly AN by the end of the month of December. January may will mirror December in terms of temp pattern progression. Sure looks to me like the cold January analogs are going to win the first three weeks of January. Could that change? Sure! Enjoy! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago The Euro Weeklies Control snow map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: The Euro Weeklies Control snow map. Post 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 21 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Post Will in a bit. Today and tomorrow my posting options are limited. I am hoping someone will post it! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 20 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Will in a bit. Today and tomorrow my posting options are limited. I am hoping someone will post it! You get them through stormvista? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago @Met1985 1 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9697 Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago 29 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: @Met1985 If I get half of that I would be happy with the season! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago The Typical Plains/Midwest Nina Blizzard is going to be displaced 500 Miles SE this Winter. I called it first ! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago 1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: @Met1985 I like when I have to look at the key to find out what value blue/light purple is. Is it too much to ask that MBY beats Columbus, OH, by 42-17 in seasonal snowfall? Things have to even out. 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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