The Slip Sliding Away Christmas Eve Event

[Solution Man]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
300 AM EST Mon Dec 23 2024

DCZ001-MDZ004>006-008-011-013-014-503>508-VAZ053-054-501-505-506-526-
527-231900-
/O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0023.241224T1000Z-241224T1800Z/
District of Columbia-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-
Cecil-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Northwest
Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard-
Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford-
Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Northern Fauquier-
Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-Northwest Prince William-Central
and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-
300 AM EST Mon Dec 23 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Freezing rain expected. Total ice accumulation of a light
  glaze to a few hundredths of an inch. A dusting to one tenth of an
  inch of snow is possible.

* WHERE...Portions of DC, central, north central, northeast, and
  northern Maryland, and northern Virginia.

* WHEN...From 5 AM to 1 PM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will
  likely become slick and hazardous. Plan on slippery road
  conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday
  morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Precipitation begins as light freezing rain
  early Tuesday morning along and west of US-15, then begins along
  the Interstate 95 corridor around or just before sunrise. Some
  snow could mix in at times, though that is most likely along and
  north of Interstate 70. Precipitation transitions to a mix of rain
  and freezing rain late Tuesday morning, before coming to an end
  early Tuesday afternoon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road
conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by
calling 5 1 1.

Be prepared for slippery roads. Slow down and use caution while
driving. If you are going outside, watch your first few steps taken
on stairs, sidewalks, and driveways. These surfaces could be icy and
slippery, increasing your risk of a fall and injury.

[ravensrule]

Biggest event of the year. Let’s bring this home. 

[mappy]

I’ll take a dusting to refresh my snowcover 

[Maestrobjwa]

Err...I have a Christmas Eve service at 11 am tomorrow...how's it looking for that? I hadn't been paying attention to this, lol

[Maestrobjwa]

39 minutes ago, mappy said:

I’ll take a dusting to refresh my snowcover 

You should post the family guy fancy clothes meme when you say that

[J.Mike]

I predict a classic DC split. Ji will not be pleased.

[dailylurker]

3 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Err...I have a Christmas Eve service at 11 am tomorrow...how's it looking for that? I hadn't been paying attention to this, lol

I'll take sprinkles and 33 to cover my semi frozen mud. Better than 65 and sunny like most Christmases lately lol

[WEATHER53]

 it’s an upper air warm front running into a departing arctic high positioned  not to our  east-ese  but rather ne-nne

[WhiteoutMD]

Brining 270


.

[Maestrobjwa]

How much of a road threat are we looking at when it comes to ice?

[Kmlwx]

Cars will crash. We live in the DC/Baltimore corridor and everyone sucks at driving even on dry pavement. Only takes a few hundredths of an inch of freezing rain to cause chaos. 

[SnowenOutThere]

NAM 3k came in significantly wetter, with most areas around .1 of ice 

[NorthArlington101]

6 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

NAM 3k came in significantly wetter, with most areas around .1 of ice 

ante upped - especially for N MD on the 12k and 3k. This would be disruptive - I’ll enjoy the glaze from my apartment!

 

[NorthArlington101]

One thing I’ll note - one of these past years I’ve learned that we can accrete at 33/34/35 after days of below normal. Don’t think the instant we go above 32 tomorrow we’ll be clear, but good news is it should warm up pretty fast. 

[87storms]

Would be nice if this was snow instead of ice...it's a thick cold out there rn.

[IUsedToHateCold]

It's icebox cold and we get fookin' ice? ICE? It's Christmas. I want snow. SNOW. 

[WEATHER53]

Increasing clouds right at sunset which often is real bad for radiational but with these low dews we will still drop but not as much 

High of 34.2

Currently 33/16 

[CAPE]

26 after a high of 33

Pretty good chance there won't be any precip here regardless of form.

[stormy]

I look back on decades of Christmas. Snow,sunny 70 degree temps, wind, rain but you know, its all about the spirit of the season.

Do the best you can on Wednesday to achieve  the best of the Holiday season.............................. We'll argue next week.....  This week, MERRY CHRISTMAS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  

[wxmeddler]

My Prediction: Radar is gonna look worse than that surface. Even the 3KM NAM has dew pt depressions 7-10F in the AM. That said, it's gonna stick on roads that aren't treated.

[Jebman]

MERRY CHRISTMAS!!!

[mappy]

Roads are treated up in my area 

[Terpeast]

Haven’t seen any roads treated here. If the nam is right, it’s gonna be bad 

[North Balti Zen]

26 minutes ago, mappy said:

Roads are treated up in my area 

Was treated all way down 83 into the city.

[Hank Scorpio]

9 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Haven’t seen any roads treated here. If the nam is right, it’s gonna be bad 

Battlefield parkway out towards Leesburg was the only road I saw treated in the area, which is surprising. Won't take much to seriously disrupt roads with how cold it's been

[WxUSAF]

Lots of roads treated around Columbia. Even some side roads.

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z 3K NAM is much drier this run east of mountains.  Good news with so many holiday errands/ gatherings tomorrow.

[TSSN+]

9 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 0Z 3K NAM is much drier this run east of mountains.  Good news with so many holiday errands/ gatherings tomorrow.

Can’t trust the models even 6hrs out. 

[MillvilleWx]

38 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 0Z 3K NAM is much drier this run east of mountains.  Good news with so many holiday errands/ gatherings tomorrow.

If you look at the soundings, there is zero reason for the precip to be at 0.00 across Central MD. The HRRR looks very similar, same progression, and soundings look identical and it's closer to 0.01-0.1" areawide. No idea what caused that one. 

[NorthArlington101]

Lot of the hi-res models have dried up. Guess we’ll see tomorrow morning!