January 2025

[jm1220]

23 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

That storm track is absolutely wild. You can see how it contours the cold air dome across the US, riding the boundary and ... giving a nice secondary jackpot to the Outer Banks .

This really does seem reminiscent of the 2013-2015 winters to me, but of course with less snow. I really do feel there's reason yet to be optimistic about the rest of winter, while February is likely to average warmer than Jan, there's no guarantee it will be snowless. We may have better luck once the cold isn't so overbearing, since this year it oriented in a way that was harmful to snow here with that death vortex east of New England.

Chin up though, IMO. We have snow on the ground and a nice winter feel at least for the cold this week. It could certainly be worse!

The Palmetto Pulverizer storm? 

[BxEngine]

You guys comparing a run of the mill snow event here and a once in a lifetime event down south to find another reason to play the pessimism game is unreal. I mean this with all sincerity, seek help. 

[jm1220]

Gonna be a cold one. Down to 17 already. 

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Gonna be a cold one. Down to 17 already. 

amazing what a blanket of snow will do to night time temps

[donsutherland1]

On 12/27/2024 at 10:07 AM, donsutherland1 said:

The teleconnections are forecast to move into a combination that has often been associated with moderate or significant snowstorms in New York City. Based on the 12/27 0z EPS and latest 46-day ECMWF forecast, the teleconnections could be in a favorable state through January 20th.

Moderate or significant snowfalls are still infrequent events.

Assuming that the favorable combination occurs and persists through January 20th, one will need to look for additional factors:

- Sufficient cold: Likely through most of the period
- Short waves that could become storms: Multiple candidates on the guidance through 15 days
- Synoptic details: TBD (can't be reliably forecast beyond 5-7 days)

With the ENSO being in a neutral-cool phase, the active subtropical jet stream that is conducive to the development of Miller A storms is less prominent.

At present, the potential for at least moderate (4" or above) snowfalls will become more favorable than it has been during all of the winter so far. However, the potential still needs to be realized.

Based on the statistics (1950-2024), here's what seems plausible right now for the January 1-20 period:

- Measurable snowfalls: 2-4 days
- 1" or more snowfall: 1-3 days
- 2" or more snowfall: 1-2 days
- 4" or more snowfall: 1 day

Moderate snowfalls: 1 to perhaps 2
Significant snowfalls: Maybe 1

How the Pattern Verified:

What I thought was plausible:
 - Measurable snowfalls: 2-4 days
- 1" or more snowfall: 1-3 days
- 2" or more snowfall: 1-2 days
- 4" or more snowfall: 1 day

Moderate snowfalls: 1 to perhaps 2
Significant snowfalls: Maybe 1

Outcome at Central Park:
- Total snowfalls: 4 days
- Measurable snowfalls: 3 days (January 6: 0.9"; January 11: 0.5"; January 19: 1.6"; Total: 3.0")
- 1" or more: 1 day
- 2" or more: None
- 4" or more: None

Outcome at JFK Airport:
- Total snowfalls: 4 days
- Measurable snowfalls: 3 days (January 6: 0.5"; January 11: 0.4"; January 19: 2.2"; Total: 3.1")
- 1" or more: 1 day
- 2" or more: 1 day
- 4" or more: None

Outcome at LaGuardia Airport:
- Total snowfalls: 4 days
- Measurable snowfalls: 3 days (January 6: 0.9"; January 11: 0.5"; January 19: 3.6"; Total: 5.0")
- 1" or more: 1 day
- 2" or more: 1 day
- 4" or more: None

Synoptic details can't be reliably forecast more than 5-7 days out. Those details are crucial and they made the difference in the outcome. Overall, the pattern produced in the larger Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions, just not in the New York City area (no moderate or significant snowfalls). Boston picked up 5.0" during January 19-20, 2025. Baltimore saw 6.6" on January 6, 2025 and Washington, DC received 7.2" on January 6, 2025. Richmond picked up 3.5" during January 5-6, 2025.

 

[NEG NAO]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

A chance of a storm next week?

[MJO812]

[psv88]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Looks like flurries 

[Stormlover74]

Wonder if the city can drop into the single digits during this outbreak. It looks close but forecasted lows seem to be a bit higher than they were a few days ago

[cardinalland]

9 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Wonder if the city can drop into the single digits during this outbreak. It looks close but forecasted lows seem to be a bit higher than they were a few days ago

solidly polar airmass, alright wind direction, decent snowpack, but kind of weak winds. i think all suburbs make it to single digits and i'm gonna say 2/3 of city stations do too

[wishcast_hater]

I’m already at 7 degrees and my forecast low is for 6. I’m sure I will be at zero when I get up in the morning.


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