January 2025

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

The pattern still looks favorable with cold air around. 

*around* could be like 50 miles north of us lol

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Why are everyone dismissing February? Nothing looks really warm anymore. 

It can be warm in February and still snow (see February 2018), I think we'll see at least one storm as good as this one, that is, at least one storm that gives us 2-4 inches of snow.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

la ninas after el ninos are nearly always good, but multiple year la ninas usually give us diminishing returns, plus there is a lag affect with solar max, the next 2 years will likely have below normal snowfall.

 

This year is definitely going against past La Ninas with a +PNA December into January with -AO intervals since the 1990s. It’s the lowest snowfall across the coastal areas for any of those years through January 19th. So the lack of BM KU storms so far this winter is something new with La Ninas with +PNAs and -AO intervals since the 90s. All the other years had a Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet which was much weaker than this year so far allowing better snowfall. 

+PNA La Niña Decembers into January at times with -AOs intervals snowfall through January 19th

2025….NYC….5.8”…..ISP….4.8”

2021….NYC…..10.5”….ISP….7.5”

2018….NYC….17.9”…..ISP….22.0”

2006…NYC…..11.7”….ISP….12.8”

2001….NYC…..15.2”…ISP….16.0”

1996….NYC…..36.9”…ISP..44.4”

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Allsnow]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This year is definitely going against past La Ninas with a +PNA December into January with -AO intervals since the 1990s. It’s the lowest snowfall across the coastal areas for any of those years through January 19th. So the lack of BM KU storms so far this winter is something new with La Ninas with +PNAs and -AO intervals since the 90s. All the other years had a Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet which was much weaker than this year so far allowing better snowfall. 

+PNA La Niña Decembers into January at times with -AOs intervals snowfall through January 19th

2025….NYC….5.8”…..ISP….4.8”

2021….NYC…..10.5”….ISP….7.5”

2018….NYC….17.9”…..ISP….22.0”

2006…NYC…..11.7”….ISP….12.8”

2001….NYC…..15.2”…ISP….16.0”

1996….NYC…..36.9”…ISP..44.4”

 

 

 

 

 

 

Most of those years had some snow in February and March. Hopefully we can get some more chances this season 

[psv88]

32 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

Honestly, this is sort of a ridiculous statement. For all we know, we might have above average snowfall for the season two weeks from now. It’s mid January. You have no idea, neither do I, and living in the coastal plain all it takes is a couple of storms, even a storm in March to achieve seasonal average snowfall. 

I’ve been wrong before and will be wrong again at some point. But weather forecasting requires people to go out on a limb and I am. I don’t think we get a colder week this winter than this week. 
 

I also think we wasted this cold for the most part and it will be a struggle to get to normal snowfall. Let’s find out

[Dark Star]

4 minutes ago, psv88 said:

I’ve been wrong before and will be wrong again at some point. But weather forecasting requires people to go out on a limb and I am. I don’t think we get a colder week this winter than this week. 
 

I also think we wasted this cold for the most part and it will be a struggle to get to normal snowfall. Let’s find out

At January 20th, I wouldn't say the cold has been wasted.   My town has received 7.5" of the glorious white stuff so far.  The fact that cold air has made its appearance in the northeast is a good sign.  It takes a lot of things to go right to get a significant snowstorm in these parts.  Cold air is one of the ingredients.

[Allsnow]

FL pre treating the roads 

 

 

[bluewave]

7 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

At January 20th, I wouldn't say the cold has been wasted.   My town has received 7.5" of the glorious white stuff so far.  The fact that cold air has made its appearance in the northeast is a good sign.  It takes a lot of things to go right to get a significant snowstorm in these parts.  Cold air is one of the ingredients.

I would rather have a warmer winter like 15-16 through this point with a widespread 20-30” snowstorm than the seasonable temperatures and the struggle for more than a few inches of snow at a time of this winter so far. 

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I would rather have a warmer winter like 15-16 through this point with a widespread 20-30” snowstorm than the seasonable temperatures and the struggle for more than a few inches of snow at a time of this winter so far. 

The 20-30 inch storms don’t happen often enough in warm winters for me to prefer that type of outcome 

 

some of our misfortune this winter has been bad luck. 

[coastalplainsnowman]

20 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This year is definitely going against past La Ninas with a +PNA December into January with -AO intervals since the 1990s.

 

Bluewave, been thinking about something that I wonder if you (or anyone who'd like to) could weigh in on.  Given all the variables involved in weather forecasting, it seems like even with all the variables which have been identified in the past 50 years as being correlated with given events, that because there are so many variables overall, and because the overall population of winters available to study, let alone winters which meet a given profile, is so small, that it makes long term regional forecasting very difficult.  If we had 500 years of such data that'd be another story, but even then there would be long term changes underway that could be difficult to pick up.  In short, it seems like an almost impossible task, and I'm glad I'm not the one trying to do it.

[EastonSN+]

22 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

At January 20th, I wouldn't say the cold has been wasted.   My town has received 7.5" of the glorious white stuff so far.  The fact that cold air has made its appearance in the northeast is a good sign.  It takes a lot of things to go right to get a significant snowstorm in these parts.  Cold air is one of the ingredients.

Looks like we would be heading into the colder phases of the mjo in mid-February so likely another period from mid February onward for cold air conditions. 

[anthonymm]

6 hours ago, SACRUS said:

https://abc7ny.com/post/winter-storm-11925-snowfall-totals-ny-nj-ct/15818586/

Central Park: 1.6 inches
Midtown, Manhattan: 1.8 inches
John F. Kennedy International Airport: 2.2 inches
LaGuardia Airport: 3.6 inches
Elizabeth 3.7 in
Newark Airport 2.4 in

Hell of a bust. HELL of a bust. I recall nws saying there was a 98% chance of at least 2" in central park lmfao

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

This year is definitely going against past La Ninas with a +PNA December into January with -AO intervals since the 1990s. It’s the lowest snowfall across the coastal areas for any of those years through January 19th. So the lack of BM KU storms so far this winter is something new with La Ninas with +PNAs and -AO intervals since the 90s. All the other years had a Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet which was much weaker than this year so far allowing better snowfall. 

+PNA La Niña Decembers into January at times with -AOs intervals snowfall through January 19th

2025….NYC….5.8”…..ISP….4.8”

2021….NYC…..10.5”….ISP….7.5”

2018….NYC….17.9”…..ISP….22.0”

2006…NYC…..11.7”….ISP….12.8”

2001….NYC…..15.2”…ISP….16.0”

1996….NYC…..36.9”…ISP..44.4”

 

 

 

 

 

 

Any idea if there is a cyclical pattern to benchmark KU storms Chris? I ask because we saw very few of them during the 70s, 80s and early 90s period too.  I can count the number on two hands, actually.  January 1978, February 1978, February 1979, January 1982, April 1982, February 1983, January 1987.  Most of these were clustered around the late 70s and early 80s, outside of that period there was only the January 1987 benchmark KU.

 

And then we saw a huge uptick beginning in the mid 90s and that period lasted through 2018, like you said.

 

What could be behind this cyclic pattern of benchmark KUs?  The AMO?

*note the 70s-80s period also had notable historic Deep South snowstorms, as we've seen again beginning with the early 2020s.

[bluewave]

42 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

Bluewave, been thinking about something that I wonder if you (or anyone who'd like to) could weigh in on.  Given all the variables involved in weather forecasting, it seems like even with all the variables which have been identified in the past 50 years as being correlated with given events, that because there are so many variables overall, and because the overall population of winters available to study, let alone winters which meet a given profile, is so small, that it makes long term regional forecasting very difficult.  If we had 500 years of such data that'd be another story, but even then there would be long term changes underway that could be difficult to pick up.  In short, it seems like an almost impossible task, and I'm glad I'm not the one trying to do it.

My guess is that the variables have increased since 18-19 due to these expanding record marine heatwaves in basins like the Pacific. So the Northern stream of the Pacific Jet wasn’t able to relax this winter to date compared other La Ninas with +PNAs and -AOs. Plus the magnitude and location actual 500 mb anomalies has shifted relative to past +PNA and -AO La Nina episodes. So patterns in the recent 30 year past that were favorable for heavy snows and become less so recently. 

Something similar happened with the near record -AO during December 2022. Past La Ninas in this range produced record snowstorms like in the Boxing Day blizzard in 2010. But we got through that pattern with very little snowfall to show for it.

So changing jet dynamics and storm tracks have added a new layer to our understanding of what 500mb longwave patterns will produce for us now. 

We have to do the best we can with the data that is available. Since climate shifts are usually are rear view mirror assessments that we only notice once we are already into a new regime. 

It’s uncertain how much longer this faster Pacific Jet pattern will continue with cutters, huggers, and suppressed southern stream storm tracks.
 

 

 

 

 

[LibertyBell]

55 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

At January 20th, I wouldn't say the cold has been wasted.   My town has received 7.5" of the glorious white stuff so far.  The fact that cold air has made its appearance in the northeast is a good sign.  It takes a lot of things to go right to get a significant snowstorm in these parts.  Cold air is one of the ingredients.

we're in  a downward cycle for coastal snowstorms anyway.  Several such cold and dry Januarys happened during the 80s, we're back to that pattern again.

[LibertyBell]

Just now, bluewave said:

My guess is that the variables have increased since 18-19 due to these increasing record marine heatwaves in basins like the Pacific. So the Pacific Jet wasn’t able to relax this winter to date compared other La Ninas with +PNAs and -AOs. Plus the magnitude and location actual 500 mb anomalies has shifted relative to past +PNA and -AO La Nina episodes. So patterns in the recent 30 year past that were favorable for heavy snows and become less so recently. 

Something similar happened with the near record -AO during December 2022. Past La Ninas in this range produced record snowstorms like in the Boxing Day blizzard in 2010. But we got through that pattern with very little snowfall to show for it.

So changing jet dynamics and storm tracks have added a new layer to our understanding of what 500mb longwave patterns will produce for us now. 

We have to do the best we can with the data that is available. Since climate shifts are usually are rear view mirror assessments that we only notice once we are already into a new regime. 

It’s uncertain how much longer this faster Pacific Jet pattern will continue with cutters, huggers, and suppressed southern stream storm tracks will last. 
 

 

 

 

 

if we go by the last time it happened, it's going to be a couple of decades, with a few good years interspersed in between.

[LibertyBell]

48 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The 20-30 inch storms don’t happen often enough in warm winters for me to prefer that type of outcome 

 

some of our misfortune this winter has been bad luck. 

the fast Pacific jet is more to blame than luck.

It would be luck if this hadn't happened before, but it has.

[LibertyBell]

52 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I would rather have a warmer winter like 15-16 through this point with a widespread 20-30” snowstorm than the seasonable temperatures and the struggle for more than a few inches of snow at a time of this winter so far. 

1982-83 or 2015-16 are both far preferable to this.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

I’ve been wrong before and will be wrong again at some point. But weather forecasting requires people to go out on a limb and I am. I don’t think we get a colder week this winter than this week. 
 

I also think we wasted this cold for the most part and it will be a struggle to get to normal snowfall. Let’s find out

Nothing seems to have really changed from the past few winters so I tend to agree.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

This year is definitely going against past La Ninas with a +PNA December into January with -AO intervals since the 1990s. It’s the lowest snowfall across the coastal areas for any of those years through January 19th. So the lack of BM KU storms so far this winter is something new with La Ninas with +PNAs and -AO intervals since the 90s. All the other years had a Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet which was much weaker than this year so far allowing better snowfall. 

+PNA La Niña Decembers into January at times with -AOs intervals snowfall through January 19th

2025….NYC….5.8”…..ISP….4.8”

2021….NYC…..10.5”….ISP….7.5”

2018….NYC….17.9”…..ISP….22.0”

2006…NYC…..11.7”….ISP….12.8”

2001….NYC…..15.2”…ISP….16.0”

1996….NYC…..36.9”…ISP..44.4”

 

 

 

 

 

 

Crazy to see 1995-96 on this list lol.  2010-11 doesn't make this list?

PS can you extend this back to the 70s and 80s and see if we can find any winters similar to this one, Chris?

[jm1220]

11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

the fast Pacific jet is more to blame than luck.

It would be luck if this hadn't happened before, but it has.

We can’t keep blaming “bad luck” for why we can’t produce anything during favorable pattern windows. There’s a reason these turd in the punchbowls show up and ruin setups for big storms. The prevalence of all these confluence/kicker etc shortwaves is because the Pacific jet is so chaotic and fast. It also knocks down the big ridges and troughs that can generate the bigger storms, and can push them into bad alignments and locations, ie make them positively tilted. 

[donsutherland1]

The storm that underperformed in much of the region has now departed and an unseasonably cold air mass is in place. Overall, the forecast was too aggressive.

Final snowfall estimates and verification:
Allentown: 4"-8" (Actual: 5.7")
Baltimore: 2"-4" (Actual: 1.0")
Boston: 4"-8" (Actual: 5.0")
Islip: 2"-4" (Actual: 2.3")
New York City: 3"-6" (Actual: 1.6")
Newark: 3"-6" (Actual: 2.4")
Philadelphia: 3"-6" (Actual: 2.0")
Washington, DC: 1"-3" (Actual: 0.3")

From tomorrow through Thursday, New York City will experience its coldest weather this winter. However, the air mass is not quite as cold as had previously been modeled. Temperatures could still fall into the single digits for lows in New York City and Philadelphia. The last single-digit lows were as follows:

Baltimore: December 24, 2022 (6°)
Boston: February 4, 2023 (-10°)
New York City: February 4, 2023 (3°)
Newark: February 4, 2023 (5°)
Philadelphia: December 24, 2022 (7°)
Washington, DC: December 24, 2022 (9°)

Highs could reach no higher than the teens in New York City and perhaps Philadelphia during the peak of the cold. The last time both cities had high temperatures in the teens was:

New York City: December 24, 2022 (15°)
Philadelphia: December 24, 2022 (18°)

There is a chance that New York City could see two consecutive highs in the teens for the first time since January 6-7, 2018 when the highs were 13° and 18° respectively.

A storm will track well south and east of the region from tomorrow into Thursday. Extreme southeast New Jersey and the Twin Forks of Long Island could see some flurries or perhaps some light snow.

That storm has the potential to bring measurable snowfall to Atlanta, Charleston, Norfolk, and Wilmington, NC. The last time that happened was during what became known as the Boxing Day Blizzard of December 25-27, 2010. Parts of the Southeast could see a significant snow, sleet, and ice event from this storm. Tallahassee could see its first snowfall since January 3, 2018 when 0.1" fell. New Orleans could see its first measurable snowfall since December 4, 2009. The last storm that brought measurable snowfall to both New Orleans and Tallahassee occurred on February 9-10, 1973.

The AO went negative on Saturday. With the AO forecast to become predominantly positive after January 24th, prospects for a 6" or above snowstorm in the New York City and Philadelphia areas could become limited after January 24th. With the AO likely to spend time at or above +2.000 afterward into at least early February, odds of a 6" or above snowfall in New York City will be very low. Since 1950, just 2 of 19 (11%) of storms with an AO of +2.000 or above during January 15-February 15 saw 6" or more of snow. Opportunities for a 6" or above snowstorm would likely persist for parts of southern New England, including Boston, through January.   

Moderation is likely during the opening of February.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around January 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.02°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.70°C. La Niña conditions are underway and will likely persist into the start of spring.

The SOI was +18.61 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.545 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 29.4° (4.5° below normal).

 

[Allsnow]

 

[coastalplainsnowman]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

Is winter storm warning criteria region specific?  I always assumed that the criteria for Upton is different than some site in the Rockies which is different than for the Gulf coast?

[SnoSki14]

Places along the Gulf Coast are about to have more snow than us. 

[Allsnow]

 

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Places along the Gulf Coast are about to have more snow than us. 

Disgusting 

 

what a winter for the Deep South 

 

 

[Volcanic Winter]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Disgusting 

 

what a winter for the Deep South 

 

 

That storm track is absolutely wild. You can see how it contours the cold air dome across the US, riding the boundary and ... giving a nice secondary jackpot to the Outer Banks .

This really does seem reminiscent of the 2013-2015 winters to me, but of course with less snow. I really do feel there's reason yet to be optimistic about the rest of winter, while February is likely to average warmer than Jan, there's no guarantee it will be snowless. We may have better luck once the cold isn't so overbearing, since this year it oriented in a way that was harmful to snow here with that death vortex east of New England.

Chin up though, IMO. We have snow on the ground and a nice winter feel at least for the cold this week. It could certainly be worse!

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

That storm track is absolutely wild. You can see how it contours the cold air dome across the US, riding the boundary and ... giving a nice secondary jackpot to the Outer Banks .

This really does seem reminiscent of the 2013-2015 winters to me, but of course with less snow. I really do feel there's reason yet to be optimistic about the rest of winter, while February is likely to average warmer than Jan, there's no guarantee it will be snowless. We may have better luck once the cold isn't so overbearing, since this year it oriented in a way that was harmful to snow here with that death vortex east of New England.

Chin up though, IMO. We have snow on the ground and a nice winter feel at least for the cold this week. It could certainly be worse!

Agreed. I’ll take the deep winter feel as a win for this winter.

[MJO812]

A chance of a storm next week?