January 2025

[brooklynwx99]

SE ridge getting squashed again

[MJO812]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

SE ridge getting squashed again

That has been the trend all winter.

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The sample size of the shift in snowfall distribution in NYC is 60 years long. NYC had 18 seasons with a mid range snowfall from 19” to 30” from 63-64 to 92-93. From 93-94 to 23-24 NYC only had only 4 of these mid range seasons. Nearly all of the seasons since the 90s have been dominated by well above and well below normal snowfall. The last 6 years matches this pattern which was established in 93-94 with only one season in the 19-30” range which was common back in the 63-64 era.

My guess on what this is happening is that it’s probably a function of the warming the climate has experienced. From 63-64 to 92-93 we were in much more of a stable climate with significantly colder winters. Our storms were a mix of larger KUs over 10” and 12”,moderate 3-6 or 4-8” type events, and small 1-3” to 2-4” type events. So more balanced snowfall seasons toward a mid range and fewer very high and very low extremes. 

Since 93-94 our snowfall has become dominated by seasons with numerous KUs where someone around NYC Metro would regularly get a 10” or 12” event from near EWR out to Eastern LI. The seasons when these KUs didn’t appear were mostly below to well below average. Over this period we have experienced the greatest winter warming in modern times. 09-10 to 17-18 represented the greatest era for NESIS KU snowstorms. So it’s no coincidence 15-16 was the first winter with a new heaviest snowstorm on record in NYC and a +13 temperature month along with a subzero low. So volatility has increased along with this warming.

The big question going forward is if this most recent shift since 18-19 to cutter, hugger, and suppressed southern stream storm tracks will continue. On that point I agree with you that a 6 year period is too small a sample size to make any conclusions about storm tracks in the future. It’s possible that benchmark KU tracks could make a return. But expecting a 09-10 to 17-18 sustained high rate of KUs may be a challenge. 

So I stand by my observation from the long term data that a return to KU benchmark snowstorm tracks will be a prerequisite for NYC to get the snowfall average back above 20” for the 2020s and the future decades. Since we don’t have the more cold and stable climate when we could rely on small to moderate events only at times to get something closer to a long term midrange somewhere in the 20s for snowfall.

 

Time will tell. 

Positives I have seen since 2018 are: 

The mjo was not stuck in the warm phases all winter like we were fearing. 

This leads to the mjo, however we have not been dominated by an RNA to Baja like the last couple years. 

We have had back-to-back blow average temperature months. 

Still getting snow down to New Orleans in Myrtle Beach. Delmarva having a second dominant inter-season in the last 6. 

I think the issue I am having with the time periods is 2000 through 2018 was a mirror to 1955 through 1969 where both periods were completely dominated by KU events. So I get what you're saying when you start with 93 94 till today however the reason I am comparing 70 through 99 is it sits between those two KU dominated. My theory is we have exited that KU dominated period like 1970 and therefore 1970 through 1999 could be a match for 2019 through today. If that's the case per my analysis we are in line with that period. 

I think an interesting comparison would be 1955 through 1969 compared to 2000 through 2018 and how the warming temperatures affected the KU events.

[cleetussnow]

My pellet stove is running hotter than reactor #4 right now.  Thing is eating pellets like a hippo to keep up.  Doesn't look like we get a respite until perhaps Feb sometime.  Without a snowstorm this kinda sucks.  At least it's white out there.

[Stormlover74]

13 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

I actually had the exact opposite happen. Car top was about an inch less than the grass...I averaged the two hedging slightly toward the grass since it was a depth measurement several hours after the snow had ended.

Same I had over 4 in the grass but my patio table only had 3 or so. Other measurements were in between and averaged to 3.5

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Time will tell. 

Positives I have seen since 2018 are: 

The mjo was not stuck in the warm phases all winter like we were fearing. 

This leads to the mjo, however we have not been dominated by an RNA to Baja like the last couple years. 

We have had back-to-back blow average temperature months. 

Still getting snow down to New Orleans in Myrtle Beach. Delmarva having a second dominant inter-season in the last 6. 

I think the issue I am having with the time periods is 2000 through 2018 was a mirror to 1955 through 1969 where both periods were completely dominated by KU events. So I get what you're saying when you start with 93 94 till today however the reason I am comparing 70 through 99 is it sits between those two KU dominated. My theory is we have exited that KU dominated period like 1970 and therefore 1970 through 1999 could be a match for 2019 through today. If that's the case per my analysis we are in line with that period. 

I think an interesting comparison would be 1955 through 1969 compared to 2000 through 2018 and how the warming temperatures affected the KU events.

But if we are comparing period to period, so let's say 1970-1999 is like 2019-today, then our snowfall averages have definitely gone down (and the winters have gotten warmer) since that earlier bad period.  On the other hand, the 2000-2018 period was a lot snowier than the 1955-1969 period, so it does look like the extremes are getting more extreme.

 

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Time will tell. 

Positives I have seen since 2018 are: 

The mjo was not stuck in the warm phases all winter like we were fearing. 

This leads to the mjo, however we have not been dominated by an RNA to Baja like the last couple years. 

We have had back-to-back blow average temperature months. 

Still getting snow down to New Orleans in Myrtle Beach. Delmarva having a second dominant inter-season in the last 6. 

I think the issue I am having with the time periods is 2000 through 2018 was a mirror to 1955 through 1969 where both periods were completely dominated by KU events. So I get what you're saying when you start with 93 94 till today however the reason I am comparing 70 through 99 is it sits between those two KU dominated. My theory is we have exited that KU dominated period like 1970 and therefore 1970 through 1999 could be a match for 2019 through today. If that's the case per my analysis we are in line with that period. 

I think an interesting comparison would be 1955 through 1969 compared to 2000 through 2018 and how the warming temperatures affected the KU events.

January 2016 was definitely snowier because of the warming temperatures increasing the moisture content of the atmosphere.

 

[EastonSN+]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

But if we are comparing period to period, so let's say 1970-1999 is like 2019-today, then our snowfall averages have definitely gone down (and the winters have gotten warmer) since that earlier bad period.  On the other hand, the 2000-2018 period was a lot snowier than the 1955-1969 period, so it does look like the extremes are getting more extreme.

 

Yeah that is an interesting time period to compare. 

We are a good snowstorm away from being lockstep with a 1970s. 

Agree on temps however our latitude should have a different effect on us as compared to say Washington (or New Orleans LOL).

[NEG NAO]

16 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

I actually had the exact opposite happen. Car top was about an inch less than the grass...I averaged the two hedging slightly toward the grass since it was a depth measurement several hours after the snow had ended.

ever consider it was windy last night and some of the snow blew off the car top ?

[EastonSN+]

8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

January 2016 was definitely snowier because of the warming temperatures increasing the moisture content of the atmosphere.

 

Actually made a mistake. We are a little over 15-inch average for both the last 6 years and the first 6 years of the 1970s. So our snowfall is 100% aligned with a 1970s so far. 

[kat5hurricane]

59 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Why are everyone dismissing February? Nothing looks really warm anymore. 

Crazy how people can dismiss an entire mid winter month like 10 days before it even starts. There's been plenty of times when long range forecasts didn't pan out and now the next month and a half is done for snow? Just silly 

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

Crazy how people can dismiss an entire mid winter month like 10 days before it even starts. There's been plenty of times when long range forecasts didn't pan out and now the next month and a half is done for snow? Just silly 

If we can maintain the cold into Feb, we should have some chances as moisture comes back north to attack the cold air. We usually have our better storms when that happens. Amazing the lack of SE ridge this year, maybe that will be good to keep the SWFEs at bay. The Pacific slowing down and flinging less crap towards us that interfere with our bigger threats would be great. 

[NEG NAO]

19 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

Crazy how people can dismiss an entire mid winter month like 10 days before it even starts. There's been plenty of times when long range forecasts didn't pan out and now the next month and a half is done for snow? Just silly 

Hey thats what we do around here when we a frustrated ! Just wait to see the reaction if in a couple of days the Florida Panhandle has had  more snow then NYC this winter so far.............

[bluewave]

28 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Actually made a mistake. We are a little over 15-inch average for both the last 6 years and the first 6 years of the 1970s. So our snowfall is 100% aligned with a 1970s so far. 

3 mid range 20s years from 69-70 to 73-74 with none since 19-20.

[SnowGoose69]

Looks increasingly likely we will be neutral or weak La Nina again next winter.  Historically that has not generally been good near solar maxes, I think this winter we benefited somewhat coming off the El Nino as we did in 2010-2011.  I am definitely fearing 96-97 01-02 11-12 somewhat next winter if we continue to see a move towards La Nina or cold neutral

[snowman19]

57 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

That has been the trend all winter.

+EPO though unlike earlier in the winter 

[EastonSN+]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

3 mid range 20s years from 69-70 to 73-74 with none since 19-20.

I'm starting 1970/71 as 69 was the last KU year I believe.

The first 6 years of the 70s had two mid-range Winters. So far we've had one from 18/19 to now. A drop but not much yet. This year will likely be another sub mid range year, however we have more than 2 months left to go to get another 15.

[H2Otown_WX]

46 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

ever consider it was windy last night and some of the snow blew off the car top ?

Yes

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

+EPO though unlike earlier in the winter 

In my opinion we will have to wait until the second half of February when the mjo is back in the colder phases (not ruling out something before then).

[EastonSN+]

8 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Looks increasingly likely we will be neutral or weak La Nina again next winter.  Historically that has not generally been good near solar maxes, I think this winter we benefited somewhat coming off the El Nino as we did in 2010-2011.  I am definitely fearing 96-97 01-02 11-12 somewhat next winter if we continue to see a move towards La Nina or cold neutral

Wasn't 96-97 and 11 12 El ninos? I believe each had the Gulf of Alaska trough which flooded Canada.

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Wasn't 96-97 and 11 12 El ninos? I believe each had the Gulf of Alaska trough which flooded Canada.

No both were weak La Ninas to neutral cold.  96-97 had a great AO/NAO combo in Dec much like 2012 did but nothing happened outside of interior parts of SNE and Upstate NY.  Then we went cold and dry in January and torch in February.  It was more of a bad luck winter than anything else, some places south of here had well above normal snowfall.  11-12 and 01-02 were similar as far as their proximity to a solar max and a neutral after a Nina

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

I kind of agree... would you agree the CMCE was best guess a week out?  Obviously being slightly too far west but having the right idea about w of I95. 

It seems like something changed with Euro and EPS after one of the updates in 2014 and 2015. The Euro and EPS were spot on from 7-8 days out with Hurricane Sandy in 2012. It was the first model to jump on Nemo in February 2013 around 5 days out. Then the high profile storm track error with the blizzard in January 2015 when it was too far NW. This was followed by the January 2016 blizzard forecast from a day out which had the heaviest snowfall axis to our south instead of across the NYC Metro which verified. So it was too suppressed. More often than not in recent years the longer range bias with tracks near the coast has been suppression. 

It would be great if we could generate a track error database for every East Coast low from each of the models like is done by the NHC with tropical cyclone model track errors. Since the headline model skill scores we see on the various sites don’t specifically have an East Coast storm system statistics. 

Even in the older era back in the 90s, I believe the Euro was first to have a closer to correct idea with March 1993 and January 1996. While all the models missed the early rapid deepening in the Gulf in March 93, I believe the Euro was closer on the track than the old AVN MRF. it also had January 96 more defined and further north than the AVN MRF which was too suppressed. 

So I am not sure what happened to the Euro and EPS as the animation below from February 2021 seems to have become the norm for that model at times in recent years.

 

 

 

[psv88]

In terms of SENSIBLE weather…you know what actually dictates what falls from the sky, the Canadian models were horrific. 2 days before the storm they had plain rain from NE NJ eastward. 
 

in reality all of Long Island got 2-4” of snow. 
 

again, people care about sensible weather. If someone had been forecasting based on the Canadian models yesterday’s forecast would have been rain and 40. 
 

euro AI was the best with the storm period. It’s not even up for discussion. 
 

a model that had all rain 2 days ago for a 100 mile wide area that just got 2-4” of snow is horrific. 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yeah that is an interesting time period to compare. 

We are a good snowstorm away from being lockstep with a 1970s. 

Agree on temps however our latitude should have a different effect on us as compared to say Washington (or New Orleans LOL).

And even this next snowstorm coming up for the Deep South has a comparison to the 80s.

December 1989 that month we love to hate was one of the coldest Decembers on record, was there any December ever colder than that one? The only one I can think of is possibly December 1917?  

Well December 1989 had a historic snowstorm in the Deep South too-- Charleston SC got 8 inches of now right by the ocean in that one!  In December 1989, the cold was far more extensive and long lasting than any cold we have seen since (in December anyway), the only colder months I can think of were January 1994, January 2004 and February 2015.  I remember that Philly had something like 36 consecutive days below freezing!

We love to hate December 1989 but we must also respect it for how truly historic the cold was that month.

Fringe winter months are interesting when they are historically cold, another one was March 1960, which was as cold as our average January is now.  Being in the snowy 60s era, it had one of our top KU snowstorms!

March 1960, January 1977, December 1989, January 1994, January 2004, February 2015 were all double digits below normal temperatures.  If they were snowy or not depends on what era they were in.

 

 

[Allsnow]

Today eps definitely has some support for a snow event Monday night 

[LibertyBell]

39 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Looks increasingly likely we will be neutral or weak La Nina again next winter.  Historically that has not generally been good near solar maxes, I think this winter we benefited somewhat coming off the El Nino as we did in 2010-2011.  I am definitely fearing 96-97 01-02 11-12 somewhat next winter if we continue to see a move towards La Nina or cold neutral

la ninas after el ninos are nearly always good, but multiple year la ninas usually give us diminishing returns, plus there is a lag affect with solar max, the next 2 years will likely have below normal snowfall.

 

[wdrag]

Hi. 
 

Bluewave knows on EC.  I let D8 determine planning for this thread and yes Canadian wasn’t good 48 hours out for LI. Not more I can say except well many know Canadian is a warmer model than GFS and EC 

[greenmtnwx]

3 hours ago, psv88 said:

This week probably coldest of the winter. Next few weeks don’t look great for snow and then we warm up. 
 

Absent a large storm in February I’m not seeing the area getting to average snowfall for the season. Probably crap out around 15” or so. 

Honestly, this is sort of a ridiculous statement. For all we know, we might have above average snowfall for the season two weeks from now. It’s mid January. You have no idea, neither do I, and living in the coastal plain all it takes is a couple of storms, even a storm in March to achieve seasonal average snowfall. 

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

Honestly, this is sort of a ridiculous statement. For all we know, we might have above average snowfall for the season two weeks from now. It’s mid January. You have no idea, neither do I, and living in the coastal plain all it takes is a couple of storms, even a storm in March to achieve seasonal average snowfall. 

This week being the coldest week of winter is probably correct.

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, psv88 said:

This week probably coldest of the winter. Next few weeks don’t look great for snow and then we warm up. 
 

Absent a large storm in February I’m not seeing the area getting to average snowfall for the season. Probably crap out around 15” or so. 

Let's see if NYC can even get to 10" lol