January 2025

[SACRUS]

Dry suppressed with the southern snow/ice this week.  By the 29th perhaps more active.

 

[wdrag]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The final outcome:

Don,

 

Think this needs a check if you include after midnight. BOS 5 inches.  also I think ASOS WE is messed up at BOS after midnight and possibly the same at NYC but I can live more with NYC.  

Later,

Walt

[jm1220]

37 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

https://abc7ny.com/post/winter-storm-11925-snowfall-totals-ny-nj-ct/15818586/

Central Park: 1.6 inches
Midtown, Manhattan: 1.8 inches
John F. Kennedy International Airport: 2.2 inches
LaGuardia Airport: 3.6 inches
Elizabeth 3.7 in
Newark Airport 2.4 in

Islip got 2.3". Up to a whopping 4.8" on the season there, still under half of average to date. I probably should be at 10-11" at this point and have 8". 

[Allsnow]

A week below frz isn’t nothing 

 

 

[bluewave]

48 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yep I believe it was only 6 KUs in 30 years from 1970 to 1999. We've had one KU in the last six Winters so really on Target. 

We just have to wait for the fast flow to slow down/jet retract. Maybe next year maybe later this year.

The current climate is much warmer than 1970-1999. So coastal areas near NYC can’t get over 20” on the season anymore without a KU. We had numerous seasons during that era around NYC Metro without a KU and 20”+ snowfall. Since there were numerous smaller to moderate events when the temperatures were less marginal for snow. Since the 1990s we have been depending on much larger snowstorms for our seasonal snowfall. So the epic 2010-2018 KU snowfall era was masking the warming pattern. If we can’t get back to more regular KU tracks like we had from 2010 to 2018, then the new seasonal snowfall from EWR out to ISP will be under 20” like it has been in the 2020s so far.

[hooralph]

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

Don,

 

Think this needs a check if you include after midnight. BOS 5 inches.  also I think ASOS WE is messed up at BOS after midnight and possibly the same at NYC but I can live more with NYC.  

Later,

Walt

Sadly, i think the 1.6" is not far off for Manhattan. My eyeball measurements would be more like 1.75; I don't think we got to 2".

[EastonSN+]

23 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The current climate is much warmer than 1970-1999. So coastal areas near NYC can’t get over 20” on the season anymore without a KU. We had numerous seasons during that era around NYC Metro without a KU and 20”+ snowfall. Since there were numerous smaller to moderate events when the temperatures were less marginal for snow. Since the 1990s we have been depending on much larger snowstorms for our seasonal snowfall. So the epic 2010-2018 KU snowfall era was masking the warming pattern. If we can’t get back to more regular KU tracks like we had from 2010 to 2018, then the new seasonal snowfall from EWR out to ISP will be under 20” like it has been in the 2020s so far.

16 of those 30 years Central Park failed to reach 20 inches (> 50% of the winters during that 30 year stretch). 

Excluding this season, Central Park reached 20 inches 2 out of the 6 seasons (30%). 1 of those winters did not have a KU, so 50% of the 20+ winters did not have a KU.

I am not pointing out the above to dispute, only to reiterate that 6 years is an extremely small sample size.

Perhaps we are mirroring 1970 through 1999, however now we are reaching 20 inches 30% of the time instead of 46% of the time (50% of those needing a KU). However again 6 years is an extremely small sample size).

[wdrag]

23 minutes ago, hooralph said:

Sadly, i think the 1.6" is not far off for Manhattan. My eyeball measurements would be more like 1.75; I don't think we got to 2".

You all are there.  I kind of wish we had a camera on the board area 24x7 to match up to the ASOS there. I know there is UWS observer in our subforum.  I cant keep up with all the chat here.

I also think the NWS and Feds at the White House could collaborate and get a daily observation going there using Climate accepted sensors and security vetted observation (security personnel?).  The 0.4 at National doesn't seem representative of what I see on the White House lawn this morning. Minor point and not going to happen at both locations (CP and DCA) and this is why we regionalize snowfall info to not get to hung up on specifics. That harkens back to the PS/PC debate when we moved over to grids and wording from the grids.

I'll add the CoCoRaHs and NOHRSC snowfall analysis shortly for anyone to compare the initial thread ensembles vs reality and also the NWS multi sensor precip which showed 1/2" in the areas that I think got good banding, which also was well defined 24-48 hours in advance by the WPC snowbands  extracted from the SPC HREF and confirmed by the FSU banding web site via the GFS. 

[hooralph]

2 minutes ago, wdrag said:

You all are there.  I kind of wish we had a camera on the board area 24x7 to match up to the ASOS there. I know there is UWS observer in our subforum.  I cant keep up with all the chat here.

I also think the NWS and Feds at the White House could collaborate and get a daily observation going there using Climate accepted sensors and security vetted observation (security personnel?).  The 0.4 at National doesn't seem representative of what I see on the White House lawn this morning. Minor point and not going to happen at both locations (CP and DCA) and this is why we regionalize snowfall info to not get to hung up on specifics. That harkens back to the PS/PC debate when we moved over to grids and wording from the grids.

I'll add the CoCoRaHs and NOHRSC snowfall analysis shortly for anyone to compare the initial thread ensembles vs reality and also the NWS multi sensor precip which showed 1/2" in the areas that I think got good banding, which also was well defined 24-48 hours in advance by the WPC snowbands  extracted from the SPC HREF and confirmed by the FSU banding web site via the GFS. 

I'm on the UWS, near the River, a little less susceptible to heat island, but more susceptible to any W wind and impact from the River. My tried and true method of sticking my fingers into the snow on benches and railings could not get me to 2".

[psv88]

This week probably coldest of the winter. Next few weeks don’t look great for snow and then we warm up. 
 

Absent a large storm in February I’m not seeing the area getting to average snowfall for the season. Probably crap out around 15” or so. 

[MJO812]

Just now, psv88 said:

This week probably coldest of the winter. Next few weeks don’t look great for snow and then we warm up. 
 

Absent a large storm in February I’m not seeing the area getting to average snowfall for the season. Probably crap out around 15” or so. 

The pattern still looks favorable with cold air around. 

[wdrag]

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

Don,

 

Think this needs a check if you include after midnight. BOS 5 inches.  also I think ASOS WE is messed up at BOS after midnight and possibly the same at NYC but I can live more with NYC.  

Later,

Walt

Don et al, while I'm aware this is based on cli reports... not sure what the agencies are verifying (EC in particular). Daily Cli, or 00z-00z or 12z-12z.  I couldn't find any documentation on that but it may be that I didnt look closely enough. 

So the perfection Don posted--- it is.    I just didnt want anyone to think BOS 3.8.  

I do know water equiv at some ASOS's is vastly underdone at non melting below freezing temps. Local offices probably modify the CLI reports via estimates, to try to keep the Climate Data base representative.  I cant predict what BOX will do with the Logan ASOS qpf in the late afternoon CLIBOS report but Trace in that 6 hr period ending 12z, highly unlikely. 

[NEG NAO]

18 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

New York City: 3"-6"

 

unfortunately when people view the record books monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf for this event they will see 1.6 inches in NYC at Central  Park

 

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The pattern still looks favorable with cold air around. 

The overrunning pattern next week needs to be watched with the NAO rising.

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The overrunning pattern next week needs to be watched with the NAO rising.

[Stormlover74]

15 minutes ago, psv88 said:

This week probably coldest of the winter. Next few weeks don’t look great for snow and then we warm up. 
 

Absent a large storm in February I’m not seeing the area getting to average snowfall for the season. Probably crap out around 15” or so. 

In line with forecasts. Maybe a little below. I think we get something in March when nobody wants it

[psv88]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

In line with forecasts. Maybe a little below. I think we get something in March when nobody wants it

Yes par for the course 

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, wdrag said:

Don,

 

Think this needs a check if you include after midnight. BOS 5 inches.  also I think ASOS WE is messed up at BOS after midnight and possibly the same at NYC but I can live more with NYC.  

Later,

Walt

The cutoff date for the number was through Sunday. Some of the snow will also be recorded with next week's update. Either way, the EPS missed the timing and likelihood of the snow from a week out.

[weatherpruf]

26 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The pattern still looks favorable with cold air around. 

We're gonna have to nickel and dime it this year I'm afraid; but one good storm ( IMO 8 in or above ) can help a lot. While Metuchen measured 3.75 nearby me, I only saw about 2 on the grass and driveway; the cartops had around 3. Odd, I guess the warmer ground ate up a lot of early snow.

[MJO812]

21 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Yep worth watching 

[MJO812]

18 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

In line with forecasts. Maybe a little below. I think we get something in March when nobody wants it

Why are everyone dismissing February? Nothing looks really warm anymore. 

[donsutherland1]

27 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

unfortunately when people view the record books monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf for this event they will see 1.6 inches in NYC at Central  Park

 

Yes. My forecast was too high.

[Stormlover74]

Just now, donsutherland1 said:

Yes. My forecast was too high.

But most places in your 3 to 6 verified

[wdrag]

15 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The cutoff date for the number was through Sunday. Some of the snow will also be recorded with next week's update. Either way, the EPS missed the timing and likelihood of the snow from a week out.

I kind of agree... would you agree the CMCE was best guess a week out?  Obviously being slightly too far west but having the right idea about w of I95. 

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Yes. My forecast was too high.

What I meant is the 1.6 is questionable at best - why does Central Park seem to always measure one of the lowest totals ? Has anybody ever been to the site where they measure to witness this ?

[NEG NAO]

17 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

We're gonna have to nickel and dime it this year I'm afraid; but one good storm ( IMO 8 in or above ) can help a lot. While Metuchen measured 3.75 nearby me, I only saw about 2 on the grass and driveway; the cartops had around 3. Odd, I guess the warmer ground ate up a lot of early snow.

where in Metuchen was this measured ? Could it be caused by local environmental influences or just a heavier local band of snow setup over Metuchen ? On radar last evening there seemed to be banding and dry slots near our area in Central NJ

[donsutherland1]

6 minutes ago, wdrag said:

I kind of agree... would you agree the CMCE was best guess a week out?  Obviously being slightly too far west but having the right idea about w of I95. 

Yes. I agree with you.

[BxEngine]

22 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

We're gonna have to nickel and dime it this year I'm afraid; but one good storm ( IMO 8 in or above ) can help a lot. While Metuchen measured 3.75 nearby me, I only saw about 2 on the grass and driveway; the cartops had around 3. Odd, I guess the warmer ground ate up a lot of early snow.

Thats the difference between a proper measurement and a grass measurement in most cases. 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

16 of those 30 years Central Park failed to reach 20 inches (> 50% of the winters during that 30 year stretch). 

Excluding this season, Central Park reached 20 inches 2 out of the 6 seasons (30%). 1 of those winters did not have a KU, so 50% of the 20+ winters did not have a KU.

I am not pointing out the above to dispute, only to reiterate that 6 years is an extremely small sample size.

Perhaps we are mirroring 1970 through 1999, however now we are reaching 20 inches 30% of the time instead of 46% of the time (50% of those needing a KU). However again 6 years is an extremely small sample size).

The sample size of the shift in snowfall distribution in NYC is 60 years long. NYC had 18 seasons with a mid range snowfall from 19” to 30” from 63-64 to 92-93. From 93-94 to 23-24 NYC only had only 4 of these mid range seasons. Nearly all of the seasons since the 90s have been dominated by well above and well below normal snowfall. The last 6 years matches this pattern which was established in 93-94 with only one season in the 19-30” range which was common back in the 63-64 era.

My guess on why this is happening is that it’s probably a function of the warming the climate has experienced. From 63-64 to 92-93 we were in much more of a stable climate with significantly colder winters. Our storms were a mix of larger KUs over 10” and 12”,moderate 3-6 or 4-8” type events, and small 1-3” to 2-4” type events. So more balanced snowfall seasons toward a mid range and fewer very high and very low extremes. 

Since 93-94 our snowfall has become dominated by seasons with numerous KUs where someone around NYC Metro would regularly get a 10” or 12” event from near EWR out to Eastern LI. The seasons when these KUs didn’t appear were mostly below to well below average. Over this period we have experienced the greatest winter warming in modern times. 09-10 to 17-18 represented the greatest era for NESIS KU snowstorms. So it’s no coincidence 15-16 was the first winter with a new heaviest snowstorm on record in NYC and a +13 temperature month along with a subzero low. So volatility has increased along with this warming.

The big question going forward is if this most recent shift since 18-19 to cutter, hugger, and suppressed southern stream storm tracks will continue. On that point I agree with you that a 6 year period is too small a sample size to make any conclusions about storm tracks in the future. It’s possible that benchmark KU tracks could make a return. But expecting a 09-10 to 17-18 sustained high rate of KUs may be a challenge. 

So I stand by my observation from the long term data that a return to KU benchmark snowstorm tracks will be a prerequisite for NYC and other coastal areas to get the snowfall average back above 20” for the 2020s and the future decades. Since we don’t have the more cold and stable climate when we could rely on small to moderate events only at times to get something closer to a long term midrange somewhere in the 20s for snowfall.

 

[H2Otown_WX]

33 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

We're gonna have to nickel and dime it this year I'm afraid; but one good storm ( IMO 8 in or above ) can help a lot. While Metuchen measured 3.75 nearby me, I only saw about 2 on the grass and driveway; the cartops had around 3. Odd, I guess the warmer ground ate up a lot of early snow.

I actually had the exact opposite happen. Car top was about an inch less than the grass...I averaged the two hedging slightly toward the grass since it was a depth measurement several hours after the snow had ended.