January 2025

[EWR757]

[SACRUS]

 

39 / 30 here

11

 

EWR: 40
NYC: 39
LGA: 40
JFK:  42
New brnsck: 39
TTN: 35

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

February is the one month with La Ninas when it becomes a challenge to subdue the tendency for more of a Southeast Ridge. Even during the much colder era in the 70s and 80s this was the case. So we need to do the best we can the rest of this month before that starts becoming a factor.

What's the reason it happens in February, Chris? I noticed that during that colder era it would often flip back to colder again in March.  Is there something about February that makes it so different from both January and March?

 

[SACRUS]

 

Down to 38 here from 41

[Allsnow]

Slow that kicker down we probably get hit with a storm Friday 

[Allsnow]

 

[qg_omega]

What happened to the historic cold?

[TheClimateChanger]

On 1/7/2025 at 10:50 AM, LibertyBell said:

What I like about the late 80s and early 90s is we had a solar maximum in 1991 I think it was and 1990 and 1991 were, at the time, two of NYC's warmest years on record (22 out of 24 months above normal.)  We have a solar maximum right now, I wonder how that has influenced this winter and the last 2 paltry winters we've had.

I love the solar maximum for being able to see the Northern Lights for the first time in my life, but it's not that great for snowfall.  Furthermore, there may be a lag effect meaning the next two winters may not be that good either.

 

This solar maximum effect is looking to be little more than hocus-pocus at this point, no? This has been the coldest winter in years and, given the forecast, looks like it has a decent chance of being the coldest winter since, well, the last solar maximum. The last cycle peaked in 2014 and was bookended by some of the coldest winters in decades (2013-2014, 2014-2015). Maybe there's a small global warming attributable to solar maxima, but the link between solar maxima and warm/mild mid-latitude winters seems to be tenuous at best.

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

This solar maximum effect is looking to be little more than hocus-pocus at this point, no? This has been the coldest winter in years and, given the forecast, looks like it has a decent chance of being the coldest winter since, well, the last solar maximum. The last cycle peaked in 2014 and was bookended by some of the coldest winters in decades (2013-2014, 2014-2015). Maybe there's a small global warming attributable to solar maxima, but the link between solar maxima and warm/mild mid-latitude winters seems to be tenuous at best.

Maybe it just doesn't have as much of an effect as other factors.  In 2013-14 and 2014-15 we had a -EPO and we have one now too.  Those years had much more snow and cold than this year though so maybe without the solar maximum this winter would have been even colder.

[donsutherland1]

Moderate to heavy snow has been falling in eastern Pennsylvania late this afternoon. Some early accumulations include:

Nazareth: 3.4"
New Hanover TWP 3.4"
Spring TWP: 3.8"

The biggest snowstorm in nearly three years at Central Park will begin to blanket the New York City area this evening. The snow will fall moderately to heavily at times during the first half of tonight. New York City will likely see its heaviest snow during the 6:30 pm - 9:30 pm period where visibility could be reduced to 1/4-mile or less.

The storm will likely bring a general 3"-6" snowfall from Philadelphia to New York City with a stripe of 4"-8" amounts to the north and west of this region and also in parts of southern New England.

Final snowfall estimates:
Allentown: 4"-8"
Baltimore: 2"-4"
Boston: 4"-8"
Islip: 2"-4"
New York City: 3"-6"
Newark: 3"-6"
Philadelphia: 3"-6"
Washington, DC: 1"-3"

In the wake of the storm, January will see its first genuine Arctic air mass. From tomorrow through Thursday, it is likely that New York City will experience its coldest weather this winter. Temperatures could fall into the single digits for lows in New York City, Philadelphia, and perhaps even Washington, DC. The last single-digit lows were as follows:

Baltimore: December 24, 2022 (6°)
Boston: February 4, 2023 (-10°)
New York City: February 4, 2023 (3°)
Newark: February 4, 2023 (5°)
Philadelphia: December 24, 2022 (7°)
Washington, DC: December 24, 2022 (9°)

Highs could reach no higher than the teens in New York City and perhaps Philadelphia during the peak of the cold. The last time both cities had high temperatures in the teens was:

New York City: December 24, 2022 (15°)
Philadelphia: December 24, 2022 (18°)

There is a chance that New York City could see two consecutive highs in the teens for the first time since January 6-7, 2018 when the highs were 13° and 18° respectively.

New York City and Philadelphia could also be grazed by a storm tracking well south and east of the region from Tuesday into Thursday. That storm has the potential to bring measurable snowfall to Atlanta, Charleston, Norfolk, and Wilmington, NC. The last time that happened was during what became known as the Boxing Day Blizzard of December 25-27, 2010. Parts of the Southeast could see a significant snow, sleet, and ice event from this storm. Tallahassee could see its first snowfall since January 3, 2018 when 0.1" fell. New Orleans could see its first measurable snowfall since December 4, 2009. The last storm that brought measurable snowfall to both New Orleans and Tallahassee occurred on February 9-10, 1973.

The AO went negative yesterday. With the AO forecast to become predominantly positive after January 24th, prospects for a 6" or above snowstorm in the New York City and Philadelphia areas could become limited after January 24th. Opportunities for a 6" or above snowstorm would likely persist for parts of southern New England, including Boston, through January.  

Moderation is possible during the last week of January or the opening of February.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around January 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.02°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.70°C. La Niña conditions are underway and will likely persist into the start of spring.

The SOI was +6.13 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.570 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 29.5° (4.4° below normal).

 

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Moderate to heavy snow has been falling in eastern Pennsylvania late this afternoon. Some early accumulations include:

Nazareth: 3.4"
New Hanover TWP 3.4"
Spring TWP: 3.8"

The biggest snowstorm in nearly three years at Central Park will begin to blanket the New York City area this evening. The snow will fall moderately to heavily at times during the first half of tonight. New York City will likely see its heaviest snow during the 6:30 pm - 9:30 pm period where visibility could be reduced to 1/4-mile or less.

The storm will likely bring a general 3"-6" snowfall from Philadelphia to New York City with a stripe of 4"-8" amounts to the north and west of this region and also in parts of southern New England.

Final snowfall estimates:
Allentown: 4"-8"
Baltimore: 2"-4"
Boston: 4"-8"
Islip: 2"-4"
New York City: 3"-6"
Newark: 3"-6"
Philadelphia: 3"-6"
Washington, DC: 1"-3"

In the wake of the storm, January will see its first genuine Arctic air mass. From tomorrow through Thursday, it is likely that New York City will experience its coldest weather this winter. Temperatures could fall into the single digits for lows in New York City, Philadelphia, and perhaps even Washington, DC. The last single-digit lows were as follows:

Baltimore: December 24, 2022 (6°)
Boston: February 4, 2023 (-10°)
New York City: February 4, 2023 (3°)
Newark: February 4, 2023 (5°)
Philadelphia: December 24, 2022 (7°)
Washington, DC: December 24, 2022 (9°)

Highs could reach no higher than the teens in New York City and perhaps Philadelphia during the peak of the cold. The last time both cities had high temperatures in the teens was:

New York City: December 24, 2022 (15°)
Philadelphia: December 24, 2022 (18°)

There is a chance that New York City could see two consecutive highs in the teens for the first time since January 6-7, 2018 when the highs were 13° and 18° respectively.

New York City and Philadelphia could also be grazed by a storm tracking well south and east of the region from Tuesday into Thursday. That storm has the potential to bring measurable snowfall to Atlanta, Charleston, Norfolk, and Wilmington, NC. The last time that happened was during what became known as the Boxing Day Blizzard of December 25-27, 2010. Parts of the Southeast could see a significant snow, sleet, and ice event from this storm. Tallahassee could see its first snowfall since January 3, 2018 when 0.1" fell. New Orleans could see its first measurable snowfall since December 4, 2009. The last storm that brought measurable snowfall to both New Orleans and Tallahassee occurred on February 9-10, 1973.

The AO went negative yesterday. With the AO forecast to become predominantly positive after January 24th, prospects for a 6" or above snowstorm in the New York City and Philadelphia areas could become limited after January 24th. Opportunities for a 6" or above snowstorm would likely persist for parts of southern New England, including Boston, through January.  

Moderation is possible during the last week of January or the opening of February.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around January 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.02°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.70°C. La Niña conditions are underway and will likely persist into the start of spring.

The SOI was +6.13 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.570 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 29.5° (4.4° below normal).

 

wow the bottom really fell out of the predicted average, Don, now down to 29.5!  When was the last time we had a monthly mean below 29.5, Don?

[MANDA]

Ya don't see stuff like this all that often.  Certainly the most extensive Winter Weather Advisories, Watches and Warnings we've seen in a long time.

That I-10 corridor is going to be crippled for days.

[SACRUS]

30 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Ya don't see stuff like this all that often.  Certainly the most extensive Winter Weather Advisories, Watches and Warnings we've seen in a long time.

That I-10 corridor is going to be crippled for days.

 

One of the heaviest since the Valentines day 1895

 

[SnoSki14]

All these small events are nice and all but man would I love another KU, it's been years. 

I really think the right storm could deliver record snows given warm ssts, dynamics, more precip. 

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, MANDA said:

Ya don't see stuff like this all that often.  Certainly the most extensive Winter Weather Advisories, Watches and Warnings we've seen in a long time.

That I-10 corridor is going to be crippled for days.

Can't even imagine. They don't have the equipment down there or the experience to deal with an inch of snow much less 6"+. Any amount of snow/ice there pretty much shuts a city down. 

[JustinRP37]

This was not a warning level event for me. Looks like we are going to finish around 3.5-4 inches. 

[MJO812]

Looking good

[wdrag]

No further threads for storms. Looking at the 24th since many members at 5H are much sharper and concerning about 5H troughing down into the Virginias but for now, no thread. 

[donsutherland1]

On 1/12/2025 at 8:09 AM, donsutherland1 said:

The week ahead:

The final outcome:

[bluewave]

11 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

All these small events are nice and all but man would I love another KU, it's been years. 

I really think the right storm could deliver record snows given warm ssts, dynamics, more precip. 

Yeah, these cuttter, hugger, and suppressed southern stream storm tracks have really dominated since 18-19. Leaves very little room for a big KU to rapidly deepen out near the benchmark. The one exception was 20-21 for NYC into NJ and 22 which favored points east of NYC. That’s why I continue to stand by my observation that for NYC to get to 25” or greater on any season they will need to see the BM KU storm track return. Since we aren’t cold enough to get to average with a collection of small to moderate events like was the case during several years in the 1970s and 1980s. It was amazing how many historic BM KUs we had from 09-10 to 17-18. 

[brooklynwx99]

11 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

All these small events are nice and all but man would I love another KU, it's been years. 

I really think the right storm could deliver record snows given warm ssts, dynamics, more precip. 

i mean, it should take years between each KU. we've been spoiled with one every 1-2 years 

[NEG NAO]

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

No further threads for storms. Looking at the 24th since many members at 5H are much sharper and concerning about 5H troughing down into the Virginias but for now, no thread. 

IMO starting next week there will be more opportunities as the pattern relaxes and the southern stream will be allowed to trend further north to interact with the constant Arctic outbreaks and the last week of January through the first half of February are historically "Prime Time" for snowstorms around here -IMO there will be enough cold air around to support this..........

[SACRUS]

 

19 / 7 with 3.2 inches of snow and off a low of 14.  Cold work week, coldest readings of the season and cold departures - records look safe.  Looks dry with suppressed look and overall cold through Friday.  Slight moderation with cold nearby through the end of the month.  Perhaps moderation to a more sustained warmup post Groundhogs day.