January 2025

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Nice hit Thursday for the immediate coast/LI on gfs

could be one of our coldest snowstorms, rivaling 03-04

[sussexcountyobs]

Snow currently falling here. 35.6°

[EastonSN+]

8 hours ago, Allsnow said:

EPS snow mean the best I have seen it in years. 7/8 for nyc 

Hoping the 12Z EPS snow mean is as good. Unfortunately the OP didn't show much.

[steve392]

Drizzle with some wet flakes mixing in up in Mahwah, NJ

[Allsnow]

42 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Hoping the 12Z EPS snow mean is as good. Unfortunately the OP didn't show much.

6-7 again 

3-4 for tomorrow on the mean 

 

then mid week and next weekend potential. Both events on the mean were just offshore 

[EastonSN+]

4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

6-7 again 

3-4 for tomorrow on the mean 

 

then mid week and next weekend potential. Both events on the mean were just offshore 

Thanks would be a shame if we miss out on both events.

[Allsnow]

 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, Allsnow said:

 

This will be a bigger deal than a hurricane down there.

Winter Storm Warning  criteria must be 1 inch for them lol.

 

[bluewave]

24 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

This will be a bigger deal than a hurricane down there.

Winter Storm Warning  criteria must be 1 inch for them lol.

 

1895 is their benchmark storm.

 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

1895 is their benchmark storm.

 

How does that compare to the famous Christmas storm of 2004?

[donsutherland1]

An Arctic front will move across the region early tomorrow with some periods of rain and/or snow. Any accumulations should be light. Later in the day a steadier snow will likely overspread the region. The snow could fall moderately to even heavily at times during the first half of tomorrow night. New York City will likely see its heaviest snow during the 6 pm - 8 pm period where visibility could be reduced to 1/4-mile.

The developing storm will likely bring a general 3"-6" snowfall from Philadelphia to New York City with a stripe of 4"-8" amounts to the north and west of this region. 1"-3" amounts are likely east of Islip.

Select snowfall amounts:
Allentown: 4"-8"
Baltimore: 2"-4"
Boston: 4"-8"
Islip: 2"-4"
New York City: 3"-6"
Newark: 3"-6"
Philadelphia: 3"-6"
Washington, DC: 2"-4"

In the wake of the storm, January will see its first genuine Arctic air mass. During January 20-23, it is likely that New York City will experience its coldest weather this winter. Temperatures could fall into the single digits for lows in New York City, Philadelphia, and perhaps even Washington, DC. The last single-digit lows were as follows:

Baltimore: December 24, 2022 (6°)
Boston: February 4, 2023 (-10°)
New York City: February 4, 2023 (3°)
Newark: February 4, 2023 (5°)
Philadelphia: December 24, 2022 (7°)
Washington, DC: December 24, 2022 (9°)

Highs could reach no higher than the teens in New York City and perhaps Philadelphia during the peak of the cold. The last time both cities had high temperatures in the teens was:

New York City: December 24, 2022 (15°)
Philadelphia: December 24, 2022 (18°)

There is a chance that New York City could see two consecutive highs in the teens for the first time since January 6-7, 2018 when the highs were 13° and 18° respectively.

New York City and Philadelphia could also be grazed by a storm tracking well south and east of the region from Tuesday into Thursday. That storm has the potential to bring measurable snowfall to Atlanta, Charleston, Norfolk, and Wilmington, NC. The last time that happened was during what became known as the Boxing Day Blizzard of December 25-27, 2010. Parts of the Southeast could see a significant snow, sleet, and ice event from this storm. Tallahassee could see its first snowfall since January 3, 2018 when 0.1" fell. New Orleans could see its first measurable snowfall since December 4, 2009. The last storm that brought measurable snowfall to both New Orleans and Tallahassee occurred on February 9-10, 1973.

The AO has now gone negative. With the AO forecast to become predominantly positive after January 24th, prospects for a 6" or above snowstorm in the New York City and Philadelphia areas could become limited after January 24th. Opportunities for a 6" or above snowstorm would likely persist for parts of southern New England, including Boston, through January.  

Moderation is possible during the last week of January.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around January 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.02°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.70°C. La Niña conditions are underway and will likely persist into the start of spring.

The SOI was +3.63 yesterday.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.203 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 97% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 29.8° (4.1° below normal).

 

[Stormlover74]

Gfs Thursday night

 

[LibertyBell]

41 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

An Arctic front will move across the region early tomorrow with some periods of rain and/or snow. Any accumulations should be light. Later in the day a steadier snow will likely overspread the region. The snow could fall moderately to even heavily at times during the first half of tomorrow night. New York City will likely see its heaviest snow during the 6 pm - 8 pm period where visibility could be reduced to 1/4-mile.

The developing storm will likely bring a general 3"-6" snowfall from Philadelphia to New York City with a stripe of 4"-8" amounts to the north and west of this region. 1"-3" amounts are likely east of Islip.

Select snowfall amounts:
Allentown: 4"-8"
Baltimore: 2"-4"
Boston: 4"-8"
Islip: 2"-4"
New York City: 3"-6"
Newark: 3"-6"
Philadelphia: 3"-6"
Washington, DC: 2"-4"

In the wake of the storm, January will see its first genuine Arctic air mass. During January 20-23, it is likely that New York City will experience its coldest weather this winter. Temperatures could fall into the single digits for lows in New York City, Philadelphia, and perhaps even Washington, DC. The last single-digit lows were as follows:

Baltimore: December 24, 2022 (6°)
Boston: February 4, 2023 (-10°)
New York City: February 4, 2023 (3°)
Newark: February 4, 2023 (5°)
Philadelphia: December 24, 2022 (7°)
Washington, DC: December 24, 2022 (9°)

Highs could reach no higher than the teens in New York City and perhaps Philadelphia during the peak of the cold. The last time both cities had high temperatures in the teens was:

New York City: December 24, 2022 (15°)
Philadelphia: December 24, 2022 (18°)

There is a chance that New York City could see two consecutive highs in the teens for the first time since January 6-7, 2018 when the highs were 13° and 18° respectively.

New York City and Philadelphia could also be grazed by a storm tracking well south and east of the region from Tuesday into Thursday. That storm has the potential to bring measurable snowfall to Atlanta, Charleston, Norfolk, and Wilmington, NC. The last time that happened was during what became known as the Boxing Day Blizzard of December 25-27, 2010. Parts of the Southeast could see a significant snow, sleet, and ice event from this storm. Tallahassee could see its first snowfall since January 3, 2018 when 0.1" fell. New Orleans could see its first measurable snowfall since December 4, 2009. The last storm that brought measurable snowfall to both New Orleans and Tallahassee occurred on February 9-10, 1973.

The AO has now gone negative. With the AO forecast to become predominantly positive after January 24th, prospects for a 6" or above snowstorm in the New York City and Philadelphia areas could become limited after January 24th. Opportunities for a 6" or above snowstorm would likely persist for parts of southern New England, including Boston, through January.  

Moderation is possible during the last week of January.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around January 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.02°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.70°C. La Niña conditions are underway and will likely persist into the start of spring.

The SOI was +3.63 yesterday.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.203 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 97% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 29.8° (4.1° below normal).

 

Looks like we finally have a projection of below 30.0 Don, maybe the next few snowfall chances are helping to bring the January projected average lower?

[RU848789]

10 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

There's a window of opportunity for the 24th and perhaps 25th if the forecast waning blocking doesn't break down faster. After that, prospects for a significant snowfall in the NYC to Philadelphia area could be reduced.

Great, thanks!

[cleetussnow]

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

 

How can this be?  I heard on these forums that it’s not cold. 

[cleetussnow]

GFS trying for Friday

[psv88]

Could be a nice little event Thursday night for Long Island and coastal NJ. Outside shot now, but potential for 2-4” of fluff

[Allsnow]

35 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Could be a nice little event Thursday night for Long Island and coastal NJ. Outside shot now, but potential for 2-4” of fluff

Best shot would be the northern stream s/w Tuesday night to develop some light snow 

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Best shot would be the northern stream s/w Thursday night to develop some light snow 

Euro showed this potential at 18z 

[Allsnow]

EPS around a inch for Tuesday night 

[MJO812]

[bluewave]

4 hours ago, Allsnow said:

 

Yeah, the most anomalous cold and snow relative to the means are south of us this month.

 

[H2Otown_WX]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

EPS around a inch for Tuesday night 

Anything for Thursday night?

[Allsnow]

16 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

Anything for Thursday night?

Eh more Friday evening 

 

but it only goes out to hr 144 

[TJW014]

Power's out. Again. Same area. 5th time this month. 

[MJO812]

Hi

[cleetussnow]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Hi

Eh.  I need more than the cmc to brick up on this one.  Gfs isn’t there yet.  Haven’t seen the euro all day.  
 

Keep an eye on it, will ya, Ant?

[Wxoutlooksblog]

We've still got to watch Tuesday night-Wed and even more-so Thursday night-Friday. Then I like another threat at the end of the month or very beginning of February.

WX/PT

[Monmouth_County_Jacpot]

Starting to thing snowman19 is right. These models don’t have a clue 

[steve392]

31 in mahwah.  Everything is ice!  Horrible once I got to work.