January 2025

[NorthShoreWx]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

NYC would have been much colder if the flow was more NW to NNW down the Hudson Valley. Wind direction is very important for our area. Back in the 70s to early 90s NYC could get to 0° or below on a westerly flow when the Great Lakes had record amounts of ice. These days for NYC to get below 0° like on 2-14-16 NYC needs N to NW flow down the Hudson Valley which avoids the Great Lakes. 

Back in the 70s they used to say the same, that NYC's coldest weather was on a northerly flow down the Hudson Valley.  The difference was attributed to downsloping, rather than to lake ice or lack thereof.

[bluewave]

11 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Back in the 70s they used to say the same, that NYC's coldest weather was on a northerly flow down the Hudson Valley.  The difference was attributed to downsloping, rather than to lake ice or lack thereof.

There wasn’t a lack Great Lakes ice from the 70s to early 90s so the airmass warmed less crossing the Great Lakes prior to the warmer downsloping to the east. So NYC regularly got down to the 0 to -2 range even with westerly flow. NYC has struggled to drop under 5° since the 90s with a westerly flow which crosses the Great Lakes and downslopes. Most under 5° readings have been N to NW flow like when NYC got down to 3° in early February 2023.

Monthly Data for February 2023 for Upton NY NWS CWA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NY	CARMEL 4N	COOP	-10
CT	OXFORD WATERBURY	WBAN	-9
CT	DANBURY	COOP	-7
CT	MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP	WBAN	-6
CT	DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP	WBAN	-5
CT	GUILFORD	COOP	-5
CT	NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT	COOP	-5
NY	SHRUB OAK	COOP	-4
CT	IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT	WBAN	-4
NY	PORT JERVIS	COOP	-4
CT	GROTON NEW LONDON AP	WBAN	-4
NJ	CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR	COOP	-3
NY	MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP	WBAN	-3
CT	NEW HAVEN TWEED AP	WBAN	-3
NY	WEST POINT	COOP	-2
NY	ORIENT POINT STATE PARK	COOP	-2
NY	RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM	COOP	-1
NY	WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP	WBAN	0
NY	BAITING HOLLOW	COOP	0
NY	UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK	COOP	0
NY	MONTAUK AIRPORT	WBAN	0
NY	WESTCHESTER CO AP	WBAN	1
NY	SHIRLEY BROOKHAVEN AIRPORT	WBAN	1
NY	SYOSSET	COOP	2
NJ	TETERBORO AIRPORT	WBAN	2
NY	CENTERPORT	COOP	3
NY	ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP	WBAN	3
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	3
NJ	HARRISON	COOP	3
NJ	CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP	WBAN	3
NY	FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP	WBAN	4
NY	JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	4
NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	5
NJ	CANOE BROOK	COOP	5
NY	WORLD TRADE CENTER	WBAN	5
NY	LAGUARDIA AIRPORT	WBAN	5

[Dark Star]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

NYC would have been much colder if the flow was more NW to NNW down the Hudson Valley. Wind direction is very important for our area. Back in the 70s to early 90s NYC could get to 0° or below on a westerly flow when the Great Lakes had record amounts of ice. These days for NYC to get below 0° like on 2-14-16 NYC needs N to NW flow down the Hudson Valley which avoids the Great Lakes. 

I will be pretty stubborn to be convinced on the effect of the Great Lakes on NYC temperatures.  The calculations would be mind boggling.  You would have to overcome factors like where the core of the cold air comes from (in this case it was west), wind speeds preventing significant overnight radiational cooling, snow cover, orographic heating.  Then, one has to split hairs like the cold air did not come straight down the Hudson Valley, as eastern Canada has not seen true arctic air vs. the lakes not being frozen.  Surely, friction alone is increased with an unfrozen Hudson Bay, but I think you are mainly targeting the effects the Great Lakes have on NYC metro temperatures.  Perhaps this has been intensely studied, but no way anyone without a computer program could come close to estimating the effect the Great Lakes would have on temperatures in NYC, especially when other factors like windspeed significantly retard radiational cooling.  Good idea for a thesis however.  My guess, it "might affect northeastern NJ temperatures by about a degree.  And the effect should be equal both day and night.  Our night time lows were higher than normal 99% because of the strong winds, regardless of the temperatures of any lake(s) 400 miles or more, away.

[bluewave]

37 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

I will be pretty stubborn to be convinced on the effect of the Great Lakes on NYC temperatures.  The calculations would be mind boggling.  You would have to overcome factors like where the core of the cold air comes from (in this case it was west), wind speeds preventing significant overnight radiational cooling, snow cover, orographic heating.  Then, one has to split hairs like the cold air did not come straight down the Hudson Valley, as eastern Canada has not seen true arctic air vs. the lakes not being frozen.  Surely, friction alone is increased with an unfrozen Hudson Bay, but I think you are mainly targeting the effects the Great Lakes have on NYC metro temperatures.  Perhaps this has been intensely studied, but no way anyone without a computer program could come close to estimating the effect the Great Lakes would have on temperatures in NYC, especially when other factors like windspeed significantly retard radiational cooling.  Good idea for a thesis however.  My guess, it "might affect northeastern NJ temperatures by about a degree.  And the effect should be equal both day and night.  Our night time lows were higher than normal 99% because of the strong winds, regardless of the temperatures of any lake(s) 400 miles or more, away.

All you have to do is look at the departures for the entire Northeast section of the country this month to see what influence the warmer Great Lakes and Eastern Canada are having. The reason for the delayed freeze-up on Hudson Bay and record high Great Lakes water temperatures has been the record Canadian warmth. This has been the case going back to May 2023. 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 62 (1990)
NYC: 63 (1990)
LGA: 59 (1990)
JFK: 55 (1973)

Lows:

EWR: -7 (1982)
NYC: -2 (1977)
LGA: -1 (1982)
JFK: -1 (1982)

Historical: 

 

1817 - A luminous snowstorm occurred in Vermont and New Hampshire. Saint Elmo's fire appeared as static discharges on roof peaks, fence posts, and the hats and fingers of people. Thunderstorms prevailed over central New England. (David Ludlum)

1893 - The mercury dipped to 17 degrees below zero at Millsboro, DE, to establish a state record. (The Weather Channel)

 

1916: Reno, Nevada, received 22.5 inches of snow, its greatest 1-day snowfall total ever. 

1972 - A single storm unloaded 77.5 inches of snow at Summit, MT, to establish a state record. (The Weather Channel)

1982 - Strong chinook winds caused severe wind damage in Boulder, CO. Wind gusts to 118 mph was recorded on the roof of the Environmental Research Laboratories (ERL), and a wind gust to 137 mph was measured atop the roof of the NCAR building (in the southwest part of the city, 600 feet above ground level). The high winds uprooted trees and damage roofs. (Storm Data)

1987 - A winter storm spread snow from the Southern Rockies into the Middle Mississippi Valley and southwestern sections of the Great Lakes Region, and freezing rain across Texas and oklahoma. Snowfall totals ranged up to 16 inches at Tulia TX, with 12 inches at Wellington KS. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - A Pacific storm battered the southern coast of California. Winds gusting to 65 mph uprooted trees in San Diego. Los Angeles reported an all-time record low baromteric pressure reading of 29.25 inches. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Strong chinook winds along the eastern slopes of the Rockies gusted to 90 mph near Rollinsville CO, and reached 94 mph near Big Timber MT. Heavy snow blanketed parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley, with eight inches reported in Douglas County WI. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Twenty cities across the southeastern half of the country reported record high temperatures for the date. Record highs included 61 degrees at Williamstown PA and 85 degrees at Brownsville TX. Evening thunderstorms produced large hail and damaging winds from eastern Texas to Mississippi. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

1999: An F4 tornado tracked across southern Jacksonville, Tennessee, damaging more than 200 homes and 55 buses. The storm killed six people and injured 106.

 

2010 - A series of strong Pacific storms impacted Arizona, California, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada and Utah from January 17th through 23rd, leaving behind several feet of snow across the higher terrain and breaking numerous lowest barometric pressure records across the region. Sunrise Mountain, Arizona received 77 inches of snow, while Mammoth Lakes, California received 90 inches. (NCDC)

 

2016: A potent storm system developed and tracked quickly eastward across the Gulf of Mexico and toward Florida on Saturday, January 16, 2016. The impacts from this storm reached west-central and southwest Florida during the early morning hours of Sunday, January 17, 2016. A squall line of strong to severe thunderstorms, just ahead of the cold front, produced periodic wind damage and isolated tornadoes as it quickly moved ashore across west-central and southwest Florida and pushed across the state. Two EF2 tornadoes touched down, one near Siesta Key in Sarasota County and the other near Duette in Manatee County. Two adults were killed and four others injured when their mobile home rolled over and was destroyed by the tornado in Manatee County.

[Stormlover74]

Up to 40

[Volcanic Winter]

So far Jan is averaging 29.7F IMBY. Pretty wild that it’ll drop further after next week, only a brief dip into the 40’s - no signs of hitting 50 soon either which has been a lock every January lately.

[LibertyBell]

32 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 62 (1990)
NYC: 63 (1990)
LGA: 59 (1990)
JFK: 55 (1973)

Lows:

EWR: -7 (1982)
NYC: -2 (1977)
LGA: -1 (1982)
JFK: -1 (1982)

Historical: 

 

1817 - A luminous snowstorm occurred in Vermont and New Hampshire. Saint Elmo's fire appeared as static discharges on roof peaks, fence posts, and the hats and fingers of people. Thunderstorms prevailed over central New England. (David Ludlum)

1893 - The mercury dipped to 17 degrees below zero at Millsboro, DE, to establish a state record. (The Weather Channel)

 

1916: Reno, Nevada, received 22.5 inches of snow, its greatest 1-day snowfall total ever. 

1972 - A single storm unloaded 77.5 inches of snow at Summit, MT, to establish a state record. (The Weather Channel)

1982 - Strong chinook winds caused severe wind damage in Boulder, CO. Wind gusts to 118 mph was recorded on the roof of the Environmental Research Laboratories (ERL), and a wind gust to 137 mph was measured atop the roof of the NCAR building (in the southwest part of the city, 600 feet above ground level). The high winds uprooted trees and damage roofs. (Storm Data)

1987 - A winter storm spread snow from the Southern Rockies into the Middle Mississippi Valley and southwestern sections of the Great Lakes Region, and freezing rain across Texas and oklahoma. Snowfall totals ranged up to 16 inches at Tulia TX, with 12 inches at Wellington KS. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - A Pacific storm battered the southern coast of California. Winds gusting to 65 mph uprooted trees in San Diego. Los Angeles reported an all-time record low baromteric pressure reading of 29.25 inches. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Strong chinook winds along the eastern slopes of the Rockies gusted to 90 mph near Rollinsville CO, and reached 94 mph near Big Timber MT. Heavy snow blanketed parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley, with eight inches reported in Douglas County WI. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Twenty cities across the southeastern half of the country reported record high temperatures for the date. Record highs included 61 degrees at Williamstown PA and 85 degrees at Brownsville TX. Evening thunderstorms produced large hail and damaging winds from eastern Texas to Mississippi. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

1999: An F4 tornado tracked across southern Jacksonville, Tennessee, damaging more than 200 homes and 55 buses. The storm killed six people and injured 106.

 

2010 - A series of strong Pacific storms impacted Arizona, California, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada and Utah from January 17th through 23rd, leaving behind several feet of snow across the higher terrain and breaking numerous lowest barometric pressure records across the region. Sunrise Mountain, Arizona received 77 inches of snow, while Mammoth Lakes, California received 90 inches. (NCDC)

 

2016: A potent storm system developed and tracked quickly eastward across the Gulf of Mexico and toward Florida on Saturday, January 16, 2016. The impacts from this storm reached west-central and southwest Florida during the early morning hours of Sunday, January 17, 2016. A squall line of strong to severe thunderstorms, just ahead of the cold front, produced periodic wind damage and isolated tornadoes as it quickly moved ashore across west-central and southwest Florida and pushed across the state. Two EF2 tornadoes touched down, one near Siesta Key in Sarasota County and the other near Duette in Manatee County. Two adults were killed and four others injured when their mobile home rolled over and was destroyed by the tornado in Manatee County.

wow JFK and LGA both -1 on this date and EWR -7, did Central Park also go below 0?

were all the airports also below 0 on this date in 1977-- the coldest day of one of our coldest winters!

[EastonSN+]

5 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Flat, however could be due model spread. 

This is exactly the type of system we could encounter with this setup.

[Dark Star]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

All you have to do is look at the departures for the entire Northeast section of the country this month to see what influence the warmer Great Lakes and Eastern Canada are having. The reason for the delayed freeze-up on Hudson Bay and record high Great Lakes water temperatures has been the record Canadian warmth. This has been the case going back to May 2023. 

As I said, TOO many factors involved.  Can't just state it.  What is the correlation to Canadian land temperatures vs. Great Lakes temperatures?  We are in the midst of substantial warming.  To isolate the effects the Great Lakes would have on the immediate NYC metro area would take an intensive study, year by year, scenario by scenario, and some pretty involved modeling. While we know in practical terms, a cold air system retains its core better when traveling over colder (snow covered) land masses.  I'm not sure if any of the existing synoptic models include this variable?  Again, I'm old school, old in general and stubborn.  The most significant reason why the recent cold snap wasn't that cold here is because it came here "indirectly", like so often before.  Your theory would have perhaps been more evident if the cold air plunged directly across the pole and down the Hudson valley.  

[MJO812]

No sign of a pattern change to warmth on the euro.  Cold and storm chances continue.

[hooralph]

How much for... the oil rigs and shrimp boats? 

[hooralph]

Never mind Cajun Navy gonna need skimobiles. 

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, hooralph said:

How much for... the oil rigs and shrimp boats? 

Blowing and drifting for the Alamo? 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, Dark Star said:

The most significant reason why the recent cold snap wasn't that cold here is because it came here "indirectly", like so often before

The reason the temperature departures for the first half of winter weren’t as cold as past instances with similar teleconnections was due to the source regions in Eastern Canada being much warmer than average. 

[cleetussnow]

1 hour ago, Dark Star said:

As I said, TOO many factors involved.  Can't just state it.  What is the correlation to Canadian land temperatures vs. Great Lakes temperatures?  We are in the midst of substantial warming.  To isolate the effects the Great Lakes would have on the immediate NYC metro area would take an intensive study, year by year, scenario by scenario, and some pretty involved modeling. While we know in practical terms, a cold air system retains its core better when traveling over colder (snow covered) land masses.  I'm not sure if any of the existing synoptic models include this variable?  Again, I'm old school, old in general and stubborn.  The most significant reason why the recent cold snap wasn't that cold here is because it came here "indirectly", like so often before.  Your theory would have perhaps been more evident if the cold air plunged directly across the pole and down the Hudson valley.  

I don't even know what the issue is.   

[bluewave]

6 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

it was very weird during the 80s, EWR and PHL would get down to -8 to -10 and NYC barely made it below zero -1 to -2.  You don't ever see that much of a separation anymore.

Yeah, we don’t get Arctic cold like that anymore with -29° in Sussex County, -8° at Newark, -16° at SMQ, and -13° at New Brunswick.

Monthly Data for January 1994 for New Jersey
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

SUSSEX 1 NW	COOP	-29
NEWTON	COOP	-26
SUSSEX 8 NNW	COOP	-20
LONG VALLEY	COOP	-18
Belvidere Area	ThreadEx	-17
BELVIDERE BRIDGE	COOP	-17
FLEMINGTON 5 NNW	COOP	-15
PHILLIPSBURG-EASTON BRIDGE	COOP	-13
BOONTON 1 SE	COOP	-13
CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR	COOP	-13
SOMERVILLE 4 NW	COOP	-11
WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM	COOP	-11
LAMBERTVILLE	COOP	-10
CANOE BROOK	COOP	-10

 

Monthly Data for January 1985 for Upton NY NWS CWA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NJ	ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG	COOP	-14
NJ	CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR	COOP	-12
NJ	WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM	COOP	-12
NJ	CRANFORD	COOP	-10
NY	MIDDLETOWN 2 NW	COOP	-10
NY	PORT JERVIS	COOP	-9
NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	-8
NJ	CANOE BROOK	COOP	-8
NJ	LITTLE FALLS	COOP	-8

 

Monthly Data for January 1984 for New Jersey
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR	COOP	-24
SUSSEX 1 NW	COOP	-21
NEWTON	COOP	-20
FLEMINGTON 5 NNW	COOP	-18
INDIAN MILLS 2 W	COOP	-18
PEMBERTON	COOP	-17
Trenton Area	ThreadEx	-16
SOMERVILLE 4 NW	COOP	-16
HIGH POINT PARK	COOP	-16
LAKEHURST NAS	WBAN	-16
EWING 3 WNW	COOP	-16
CANOE BROOK	COOP	-15
LONG VALLEY	COOP	-15
BOONTON 1 SE	COOP	-15
MORRIS PLAINS 1 W	COOP	-14
New Brunswick Area	ThreadEx	-13
WOODSTOWN PITTSGROV 4E	COOP	-13
NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE	COOP	-13
Belvidere Area	ThreadEx	-12
BELVIDERE BRIDGE	COOP	-12
ESTELL MANOR	COOP	-12
HIGHTSTOWN 2 W	COOP	-12
RINGWOOD	COOP	-11
LAMBERTVILLE	COOP	-11
ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG	COOP	-10
LITTLE FALLS	COOP	-10

[ForestHillWx]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Blowing and drifting for the Alamo? 

All joking aside, if that were to verify as modeled it would create a logistical nightmare and depending on the duration of cold, cause major problems with the water mains, etc. 

[jm1220]

Just now, ForestHillWx said:

All joking aside, if that were to verify as modeled it would create a logistical nightmare and depending on the duration of cold, cause major problems with the water mains, etc. 

I know, I used to live in Austin where I was urged to stay off any road after there was a tiny amount of sleet on the ground. Feb 2021 was an absolute disaster there and 6” in Houston would be just the same. 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Blowing and drifting for the Alamo? 

I wonder if Christmas 2004 was like that down there, Victoria Texas got close to 10" if I remember correctly.

[donsutherland1]

The weekend will start out with unseasonably mild temperatures. The thermometer will likely top out in the lower and perhaps middle 40s tomorrow. Afterward, an Arctic front will move across the region on Sunday with some periods of rain and/or snow. Any accumulations should be light. Later in the day a steadier snow will likely overspread the region.

Behind the front, January will see its first genuine Arctic air mass. During January 20-23, it is likely that New York City will experience its coldest weather this winter. Temperatures could fall into the single digits for lows in New York City, Philadelphia, and perhaps even Washington, DC. The last single-digit lows were as follows:

Baltimore: December 24, 2022 (6°)
Boston: February 4, 2023 (-10°)
New York City: February 4, 2023 (3°)
Newark: February 4, 2023 (5°)
Philadelphia: December 24, 2022 (7°)
Washington, DC: December 24, 2022 (9°)

Highs could reach no higher than the teens in New York City and perhaps Philadelphia during the peak of the cold. The last time both cities had high temperatures in the teens was:

New York City: December 24, 2022 (15°)
Philadelphia: December 24, 2022 (18°)

There is a chance that New York City could see two consecutive highs in the teens for the first time since January 6-7, 2018 when the highs were 13° and 18° respectively.

Moderation is possible during the last week of January.

Snow will likely accompany the arrival of the Arctic air to the region. A developing storm will likely bring a general 3"-6" snowfall from Philadelphia to New York City with a stripe of 4"-8" amounts to the north and west of this region. 1"-3" amounts are likely east of Islip.

New York City and Philadelphia could also be grazed by a storm tracking well south and east of the region from Tuesday into Thursday. That storm has the potential to bring measurable snowfall to Atlanta, Charleston, Norfolk, and Wilmington, NC. The last time that happened was during what became known as the Boxing Day Blizzard of December 25-27, 2010. Parts of the Southeast could see a significant snow, sleet, and ice event from this storm.

With the AO forecast to become predominantly positive with the exception of a window during the January 18-24 period, prospects for a 6" or above snowstorm in the New York City and Philadelphia areas could become limited after January 24th. Opportunities for a 6" or above snowstorm would likely persist for parts of southern New England, including Boston, through January.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around January 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.02°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.70°C. La Niña conditions are underway and will likely persist into the start of spring.

The SOI was +6.08 yesterday.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.506 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 95% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 30.0° (3.9° below normal).