January 2025

[The 4 Seasons]

Just finished a tri-state season to date snowfall map if anyones interested.

Totals are from COOP sites, here, and the 6 climo sites. Ill probably do any update in Feb and March. 

[wdrag]

In case anyone was looking. No second thread from me for the 22nd, but another pretty decent short wave at the bottom of the departing polar vortex moving ne of the Great Lakes will whip through here.  For now, not worth a fringe outlook but will revisit tomorrow morning.

I'm more interested in the 24th which will clearly have backing flow up the east coast as the PV moves to Baffin Bay Area.  Not starting a thread for that till more consensus and its 8 days away but it looks fairly juicy to me.  Will recheck Friday as time allows.

[Allsnow]

Some nice returns in snj 

 

it’s their winter so far 

[WestBabylonWeather]

Dusting so far in Babylon 

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

TTN wins again 

 

[donsutherland1]

Light snow in Larchmont, NY:

[jm1220]

Light snow-dusting on cars. 

[Stormlover74]

.25" 

[psv88]

Flurries 

[RU848789]

Been snowing lightly off and on for a few hours and we have a decent coating of about 1/4" on all surfaces, given how cold it's been.  Could be some slick spots out there.  Nice surprise as I wasn't expecting much.  

[Rjay]

Nice to see it knows how to snow a little

[Allsnow]

Mix line down to Florida 

 

 

[kat5hurricane]

Light snow that's really sticking whatever little is falling, had to dust off the car. Nice scene

[Stormlover74]

Just heard a salt truck

[psv88]

Dusting on the road. Looks like pixie dust falling 

[wdrag]

Good Friday morning. everyone. No new 1/21-22 thread nor a 1/24-25 thread.  Uncertainties and think we have enough to look at for 1/19.

 

[sussexcountyobs]

@ 5am. Light snow falling. 19°

[Retrobuc]

9 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Mix line down to Florida 

 

 

I moved to Florida 5 years ago after a lifetime in NJ and this is the coldest winter since Ive been here.  40s at night, 50s/60s during the day for the last 2-3 weeks.  This graph makes me want to move further south!

[jm1220]

16 this AM. Again colder than expected.

[Dark Star]

12 hours ago, USCG RS said:

A coating by definition is to completely cover. 

A dusting, again by definition, is to lightly cover. 

Consequently, I would say a covering is more snow than a dusting.

 

[EWR757]

.02" liquid / 0.3" snow in the last 24 hours.   A quiet morning here with a low of 21 degrees, but colder downhill. 

 

 

[bluewave]

14 hours ago, Dark Star said:

Maybe, but don't forget that the Great Lakes aren't frozen yet...

The coldest departures so far went south of the Great Lakes this month. You can see the moderating effect of flow across the Great Lakes in conjunction with the warmth in Eastern Canada keeping the Northeast warmer than areas to the south relative to the means. While we will finish below average here this month due to the cold next week, coldest departures will remain south when the month finishes. 
 

 

[EastonSN+]

Flat, however could be due model spread. 

[SACRUS]

 

26 / 21 a coating of snow last night.  48 hour moderation and warmup - near or low 40s today and low/mid 40s on saturday.  Sunday mix to snow well discussed (2-4 or more type deal).  Very cold Mon - Fri, coldest (mon-wed) with single digits in metro , 0 or sub zero inland and coldest of the season, looks dry through the 29th after the Sun night system moves out and cold moves in.  Moderation to close the month - overall solidly colder than normal in the -2 to -4 or lower range for most sites on the month.

 

[Dark Star]

38 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The coldest departures so far went south of the Great Lakes this month. You can see the moderating effect of flow across the Great Lakes in conjunction with the warmth in Eastern Canada keeping the Northeast warmer than areas to the south relative to the means. While we will finish below average here this month due to the cold next week, coldest departures will remain south when the month finishes. 
 

 

But if the core of the cold air went west of the greater NYC metro area, doesn't that mean that the NYC metro area would not have gotten as cold, with or without any "warming" effect from the Great Lakes heat source?

[bluewave]

14 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

But if the core of the cold air went west of the greater NYC metro area, doesn't that mean that the NYC metro area would not have gotten as cold, with or without any "warming" effect from the Great Lakes heat source?

NYC would have been much colder if the flow was more NW to NNW down the Hudson Valley. Wind direction is very important for our area. Back in the 70s to early 90s NYC could get to 0° or below on a westerly flow when the Great Lakes had record amounts of ice. These days for NYC to get below 0° like on 2-14-16 NYC needs N to NW flow down the Hudson Valley which avoids the Great Lakes. 

[LibertyBell]

On 1/14/2025 at 2:19 PM, North and West said:

That looks otherworldly. Great photo.


.

It looks like something that should be on the Great Lakes

[LibertyBell]

43 minutes ago, bluewave said:

NYC would have been much colder if the flow was more NW to NNW down the Hudson Valley. Wind direction is very important for our area. Back in the 70s to early 90s NYC could get to 0° or below on a westerly flow when the Great Lakes had record amounts of ice. These days for NYC to get below 0° like on 2-14-16 NYC needs N to NW flow down the Hudson Valley which avoids the Great Lakes. 

it was very weird during the 80s, EWR and PHL would get down to -8 to -10 and NYC barely made it below zero -1 to -2.  You don't ever see that much of a separation anymore.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The coldest departures so far went south of the Great Lakes this month. You can see the moderating effect of flow across the Great Lakes in conjunction with the warmth in Eastern Canada keeping the Northeast warmer than areas to the south relative to the means. While we will finish below average here this month due to the cold next week, coldest departures will remain south when the month finishes. 
 

 

it's weird that with unfrozen Great Lakes, Buffalo still doesn't get much snow.  For the third year in a row all the snow is going towards Erie and Buffalo has below normal snowfall.

 

[LibertyBell]

On 1/14/2025 at 12:34 PM, bluewave said:

The long term snowfall in the South is declining. But since the bar is lower for average there, it’s easier for an event or two to reach average. So if you average less than 10” annually, it doesn’t take much to have an occasional average to above average season. This is like what happened during May 2020 in NYC. All it took was a T to tie the previous snowiest May on record in 1977. May 2020 was the only month in NYC since 2018-2019 with a new snowiest month or tie of a previous snowiest month. 
 

 

and the ironic thing is, 2019-2020 was one of our least snowy seasons in total.