January 2025

[psv88]

18 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

HRRR has flurries to maybe a dusting here or there. Hopefully you’re right. 

Upton has up to an inch for the twin forks with ocean enhancement. I think we get some flurries and that’s it 

[steve392]

Flurries in Manalapan, nj

[Bxstormwatcher360]

6 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Upton has up to an inch for the twin forks with ocean enhancement. I think we get some flurries and that’s it 

I agree, although the enhancement can come earlier depening in the actual short wave coming thru. It can easily get anyone from the city east with any ocean interaction or re development.

[jm1220]

Few flurries here.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Steady light snow 24 degrees. Nice surprise. 

[MANDA]

Had a period of steady very light snow with sun dimly visible a while ago. Left a coating on most everything except road and walks that had remaining salt.  Les than .10".  Just flurries now.  Cold with temperature of 22.

[winterwx21]

Looks like three nights in a row next week that we're gonna have a low temp of around 5 degrees here. Very impressive cold. 

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

30 or 40 years ago it was probably 36ish for the North Shore.  I'm old enough to be unwilling to let that go.  

When I see a high of 33 vs 36, I think a chilly day, but not outside of a range of  normal ( +/- 2⁰C).  We all perceive things different, but I think that range is reasonable.

The average highs from 1-16 to 1-31 have been holding the line much better at ISP than 01-01 to 01-15 over the last 60 years. It will match up with the coldest temperatures of January coming in next week. Probably related to the mid portion of winter holding onto the cold better than December and February. It also lines up with the forecast moderation in temperatures for early February.

 

 

 

[donsutherland1]

Clouds will break and any lingering flurries will end early tomorrow. Readings will climb into the upper 30s by day's end. The weekend will start out even milder with temperatures topping out in the lower and perhaps middle 40s. Afterward, an Arctic front will move across the region on Sunday with some periods of rain and/or snow. Any accumulations should be light.

Behind the front, January will see its first genuine Arctic air mass. During January 20-23, it is likely that New York City will experience its coldest weather this winter. Temperatures could fall into the single digits for lows in New York City, Philadelphia, and perhaps even Washington, DC. The last single-digit lows were as follows:

Baltimore: December 24, 2022 (6°)
Boston: February 4, 2023 (-10°)
New York City: February 4, 2023 (3°)
Newark: February 4, 2023 (5°)
Philadelphia: December 24, 2022 (7°)
Washington, DC: December 24, 2022 (9°)

Highs could reach no higher than the teens in New York City and perhaps Philadelphia during the peak of the cold. The last time both cities had high temperatures in the teens was:

New York City: December 24, 2022 (15°)
Philadelphia: December 24, 2022 (18°)

Moderation is possible during the last week of January.

There is potential for snow to accompany the arrival of the Arctic air and perhaps afterward. However, with the AO forecast to become predominantly positive with the exception of a window during the January 18-24 period, prospects for a 6" or above snowstorm in the New York City and Philadelphia areas could become limited after January 24th. Opportunities for a 6" or above snowstorm would likely persist for parts of southern New England, including Boston, through January.

At present, it appears that New York City and Philadelphia may be in line for one or two snowfalls. The first such snowfall is likely on Sunday into Monday. That snowfall could be the larger of the two possible snow events in New York City and Philadelphia. If things come together, a moderate snowfall is possible.

The second snowfall is possible with a larger storm that will likely be passing far to the south and east of the region from Tuesday into Thursday. The second storm has the potential to bring measurable snowfall to Atlanta, Charleston, Norfolk, and Wilmington, NC. The last time that happened was during what became known as the Boxing Day Blizzard of December 25-27, 2010. This time around the storm track will likely be more suppressed to the south likely limiting snowfall to light amounts in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. Parts of the Southeast could see a significant snow, sleet, and ice event from this storm.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around January 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.02°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.70°C. La Niña conditions are underway and will likely persist into the start of spring.

The SOI was +6.08 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.325 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 93% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 30.0° (3.9° below normal).

 

[Dark Star]

1 hour ago, winterwx21 said:

Looks like three nights in a row next week that we're gonna have a low temp of around 5 degrees here. Very impressive cold. 

Maybe, but don't forget that the Great Lakes aren't frozen yet...

[winterwx21]

2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Clouds will break and any lingering flurries will end early tomorrow. Readings will climb into the upper 30s by day's end. The weekend will start out even milder with temperatures topping out in the lower and perhaps middle 40s. Afterward, an Arctic front will move across the region on Sunday with some periods of rain and/or snow. Any accumulations should be light.

Behind the front, January will see its first genuine Arctic air mass. During January 20-23, it is likely that New York City will experience its coldest weather this winter. Temperatures could fall into the single digits for lows in New York City, Philadelphia, and perhaps even Washington, DC. The last single-digit lows were as follows:

Baltimore: December 24, 2022 (6°)
Boston: February 4, 2023 (-10°)
New York City: February 4, 2023 (3°)
Newark: February 4, 2023 (5°)
Philadelphia: December 24, 2022 (7°)
Washington, DC: December 24, 2022 (9°)

Highs could reach no higher than the teens in New York City and perhaps Philadelphia during the peak of the cold. The last time both cities had high temperatures in the teens was:

New York City: December 24, 2022 (15°)
Philadelphia: December 24, 2022 (18°)

Moderation is possible during the last week of January.

There is potential for snow to accompany the arrival of the Arctic air and perhaps afterward. However, with the AO forecast to become predominantly positive with the exception of a window during the January 18-24 period, prospects for a 6" or above snowstorm in the New York City and Philadelphia areas could become limited after January 24th. Opportunities for a 6" or above snowstorm would likely persist for parts of southern New England, including Boston, through January.

At present, it appears that New York City and Philadelphia may be in line for one or two snowfalls. The first such snowfall is likely on Sunday into Monday. That snowfall could be the larger of the two possible snow events in New York City and Philadelphia. If things come together, a moderate snowfall is possible.

The second snowfall is possible with a larger storm that will likely be passing far to the south and east of the region from Tuesday into Thursday. The second storm has the potential to bring measurable snowfall to Atlanta, Charleston, Norfolk, and Wilmington, NC. The last time that happened was during what became known as the Boxing Day Blizzard of December 25-27, 2010. This time around the storm track will likely be more suppressed to the south likely limiting snowfall to light amounts in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. Parts of the Southeast could see a significant snow, sleet, and ice event from this storm.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around January 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.02°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.70°C. La Niña conditions are underway and will likely persist into the start of spring.

The SOI was +6.08 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.325 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 93% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 30.0° (3.9° below normal).

 

It would be impressive to have a January that finishes 4 degrees below normal. A real winter month for a change. 

[NorthShoreWx]

41 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The average highs from 1-16 to 1-31 have been holding the line much better at ISP than 01-01 to 01-15 over the last 60 years. It will match up with the coldest temperatures of January coming in next week. Probably related to the mid portion of winter holding onto the cold better than December and February. It also lines up with the forecast moderation in temperatures for early February.

 

 

 

Those 3 charts illustrate the "January thaw" in the early years.

[ForestHillWx]

Light snow at home in Chester. 1/4” down. 

[EWR757]

Very light snow here in Bridgewater, NJ most of the afternoon.  The sun (now stars) have been visible throughout, less than 0.1".  

The HRRR output I saw before the snow began seemed to "miss" this event east of the Delaware River.

[Nibor]

Pixie dust in the air. 

[Bxstormwatcher360]

Nice burst of snow rn..apparently its been snowing though since i see light dustings everywhere. Pixie dust for sure.

[Dark Star]

very light snow with a dusting on the cars in Garwood NJ, central Union county

[Stormlover74]

15 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

very light snow with a dusting on the cars in Garwood NJ, central Union county

Same here. Coating on everything 

[winterwx21]

Nice to see the dusting out there. 

[MANDA]

Very light snow ongoing here.  Just shy of .20" on the day.  Cold - 21 degrees.

 

[RU848789]

7 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

2017-18. 2009-10 was the last winter with all three months below normal.

Thanks!!

[steve392]

Flurries the whole drive up 95. Airplanes appearing out of the snow was pretty cool looking at Newark Airport.  Dusting at home in little ferry, nj. 

[Allsnow]

Where did this snow come from? 
 

Dusting currently 

[Allsnow]

TTN wins again 

[MJO812]

18 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Where did this snow come from? 
 

Dusting currently 

It was modeled all week.

[wishcast_hater]

What is more a dusting or a coating?

[steve392]

3 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

What is more a dusting or a coating?

Coating to me is more. Dusting just barely anything.  

[sussexcountyobs]

Very light steady snow falling. All surfaces white. Maybe approaching  .20"

21°

[wishcast_hater]

3 minutes ago, steve392 said:

Coating to me is more. Dusting just barely anything.  

Then I got a glorified coating and its still coming down. 

[USCG RS]

12 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

What is more a dusting or a coating?

A coating by definition is to completely cover. 

A dusting, again by definition, is to lightly cover. 

Consequently, I would say a covering is more snow than a dusting.