January 2025

[donsutherland1]

37 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Intriguing look at the end of the month. Heights over Alaska and the trough south of Greenland have been static all winter season. Now we get an RNA pumping up the southeast ridge. Unlike recent years the RNA at this time does not look to be that deep, which can easily work in our favor as that can allow Southwest flow events. We play with fire here as if the RNA gets too deep the southeast ridge will take over. That being said, that trough south of Greenland will continue to allow for a confluence and mitigate the South East ridge encroachment. 

Don/Blue Wave are there any good analogs for this type of setup? Not sure if I remember seeing this before.

There were a number of storms that occurred with similar 500 mb patterns during January 16-February 7, 1950-2024. None of them were major East Coast snowstorms.

Composite 500 mb pattern:

 

January 31, 1950:

Boston: 3.9"; New York City: 0.4"; Philadelphia: None

February 1-2, 1950:

Boston: 0.1"; New York City: 2.2"; Philadelphia: 0.9"

January 31-February 2, 1957:

Boston: 2.4"; New York City: 6.4"; Philadelphia: 0.8"

January 19-20, 2002:

Boston: 4.5"; New York City: 3.0"; Philadelphia: 4.0" (probably the worst fit of the similar 500 mb patterns)

Synoptic details would be important once one gets closer to any event, should the pattern hold.

[EastonSN+]

8 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

There were a number of storms that occurred with similar 500 mb patterns during January 16-February 7, 1950-2024. None of them were major East Coast snowstorms.

Composite 500 mb pattern:

 

January 31, 1950:

Boston: 3.9"; New York City: 0.4"; Philadelphia: None

February 1-2, 1950:

Boston: 0.1"; New York City: 2.2"; Philadelphia: 0.9"

January 31-February 2, 1957:

Boston: 2.4"; New York City: 6.4"; Philadelphia: 0.8"

January 19-20, 2002:

Boston: 4.5"; New York City: 3.0"; Philadelphia: 4.0" (probably the worst fit of the similar 500 mb patterns)

Synoptic details would be important once one gets closer to any event, should the pattern hold.

Thanks Don that composite is almost a perfect match!

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, North and West said:

My parents are in Florida for a month starting this week and my dad called this morning to let me know it’s chilly. It’s 50°.


.

Relative to the means, Florida had been having much more impressive cold than our area. While our area has been -0.4° during the first half of January, Northern Florida has been -5° to -8°. The Canadian warmth with the delayed freeze-up on Hudson Bay and near record Great Lakes temperatures and low ice has kept the Northeast much milder relative to the means. You could make the case that it has actually felt much colder in a place like Gainesville, Florida to the locals when they dropped from 75° to 26° within a few days earlier this month. Cold always seems to feel more pronounced when it’s closer to a much warmer day.
 

[EastonSN+]

14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Relative to the means, Florida had been having much more impressive cold than our area. While our area has been -0.4° during the first half of January, Northern Florida has been -5° to -8°. The Canadian warmth with the delayed freeze-up on Hudson Bay and near record Great Lakes temperatures and low ice has kept the Northeast much milder relative to the means. You could make the case that it has actually felt much colder in a place like Gainesville, Florida to the locals when they dropped from 75° to 26° within a few days earlier this month. Cold always seems to feel more pronounced when it’s closer to a much warmer day.
 

Seems to be what would be expected from a temperature departure perspective in phase one.

 

[ILoveWinter]

47 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The GFS raw 2m low temps have been verifying closer than the Euro for NYC in recent years with these Arctic outbreaks. NYC usually needs a N to NW flow to drop under 5°. This was the case in early February 2023 when NYC made it down to 3°. The GFS has upper single digits to near 10° for NYC. Even if we blend the guidance it’s been tough for NYC to dip under 5° with westerly flow Arctic outbreaks. 
 

 

If it does end up snowing several inches in the Park on Sunday, it could help to cut a few degrees off this forecast 

[North and West]

Relative to the means, Florida had been having much more impressive cold than our area. While our area has been -0.4° during the first half of January, Northern Florida has been -5° to -8°. The Canadian warmth with the delayed freeze-up on Hudson Bay and near record Great Lakes temperatures and low ice has kept the Northeast much milder relative to the means. You could make the case that it has actually felt much colder in a place like Gainesville, Florida to the locals when they dropped from 75° to 26° within a few days earlier this month. Cold always seems to feel more pronounced when it’s closer to a much warmer day.
 

That’s very informative - thanks!


.

[bluewave]

13 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said:

If it does end up snowing several inches in the Park on Sunday, it could help to cut a few degrees off this forecast 

Even so, it’s been tough for NYC to dip under 5° with westerly flow Arctic outbreaks last 30 years. All the really cold days under 5° like the 3° on 2-3-23 had N to NW flow down the Hudson Valley. The Great Lakes often had a large coverage of ice back in the 70s to early 90s. So NYC went to 0° or lower multiple times with westerly flow. 

[psv88]

14 this morning. Colder than forecast. 
 

forecast high today is 32. Nothing crazy. Next week will be cold but not historic. Overall feels like what January should feel like. Cold. 

[RU848789]

17 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

A colder air mass has returned to the region. Temperatures will generally average below normal across the region through Thursday or Friday before it turns briefly milder. Some snow flurries or even a period of light snow is possible tomorrow afternoon into Friday morning as milder air begins to push into the region.

Highs will mainly be in the lower 30s and lows will mainly be in the lower 20s in New York City and Philadelphia and teens outside the Cities through Thursday. Temperatures should return to the upper 30s on Friday.

An extended period of generally below normal temperatures is underway in the New York City area. The cold regime will likely last into at least the fourth week of January. The third week of January could see the month's first genuine Arctic outbreak around the the January 20-23 period. It is likely that New York City will experience its coldest weather this winter. Temperatures could fall into the low teens or even the single digits for lows. Moderation is possible during the closing days of January.

There is potential for some snow to accompany the arrival of the Arctic air and perhaps afterward. However, with the AO forecast to become predominantly positive with the exception of a window during the January 18-24 period, prospects for a 6" or above snowstorm in the New York City and Philadelphia areas could become limited.

At present, it appears that both cities may only be in line for light snowfalls, one on Sunday into Monday with another storm passing far to the south and east on Tuesday into Wednesday and possibly bringing some light snow or flurries mainly from southern New Jersey and southward.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around January 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.02°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.70°C. La Niña conditions are underway and will likely persist into the start of spring.

The SOI was -3.86 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.742 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 93% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 30.0° (3.9° below normal).

 

Thanks, as always.  Do you (or maybe @bluewave) know when was the last time we had below normal temps for both Dec/Jan?  Feels like many years, but I don't track temps closely.  

[NorthShoreWx]

3 hours ago, ForestHillWx said:

Come on dude; sarc tag missing. The average at MMU is 39/25… 

Average high for this date is probably about 37 in his area, maybe 36.  It isn't that far off.

[Stormlover74]

Maybe squeeze out a dusting this afternoon?

[NorthShoreWx]

2 hours ago, Rjay said:

The only 2 stations solidly below normal are NYC and LGA by ~2 degrees. 

This might be a function of the high winds.  The urban heat island really shows itself when the winds drop.

[donsutherland1]

40 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Thanks, as always.  Do you (or maybe @bluewave) know when was the last time we had below normal temps for both Dec/Jan?  Feels like many years, but I don't track temps closely.  

2017-18. 2009-10 was the last winter with all three months below normal.

[psv88]

33 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Average high for this date is probably about 37 in his area, maybe 36.  It isn't that far off.

Yes. Maybe 3-4 degrees below normal which is about normal to me. When it’s 40 out I’m not screaming torch. It’s all about normal. 

[ForestHillWx]

I like your posts @psv88 but +3 to +4 in the summer and you guys would be all over the torch. 

[uofmiami]

2 hours ago, psv88 said:

Yes. Maybe 3-4 degrees below normal which is about normal to me. When it’s 40 out I’m not screaming torch. It’s all about normal. 

That would +1 since ISP is 39 for their normal high on the daily climo report for yesterday.  33 is not about normal but to each their own.

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=okx

[brooklynwx99]

EPS just beating down the SE ridge 

[psv88]

36 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

I like your posts @psv88 but +3 to +4 in the summer and you guys would be all over the torch. 

+3-4 in the summer is 87-88. Hot but I don’t think anyone here screams torch for 87/88. (Other than Metfan who cries when it’s above 76). 

[psv88]

8 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

That would +1 since ISP is 39 for their normal high on the daily climo report for yesterday.  33 is not about normal but to each their own.

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=okx

Not to split hairs (why not though) but I usually run 1-2 degrees colder than ISP in the winter. For example, month to date ISP average temp for January 2025 is 31.52, I’m at 30.4. So figure my normal is 37-38 (on the new normals)

[NorthShoreWx]

4 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Not to split hairs (why not though) but I usually run 1-2 degrees colder than ISP in the winter. For example, month to date ISP average temp for January 2025 is 31.52, I’m at 30.4. So figure my normal is 37-38 (on the new normals)

30 or 40 years ago it was probably 36ish for the North Shore.  I'm old enough to be unwilling to let that go.  

When I see a high of 33 vs 36, I think a chilly day, but not outside of a range of  normal ( +/- 2⁰C).  We all perceive things different, but I think that range is reasonable.

[Bxstormwatcher360]

Its 27f/cloudy here. curiousity turns to a shortwave rounding the base. We should see some snow flurries or showers associated with it. Also Keeping track of the pressure drops around the area,just to see if a low pops up just off the mid-atlantic coast later.

[Allsnow]

3 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Maybe squeeze out a dusting this afternoon?

Snowing at phl, new castle and Lehigh valley airports 

[ForestHillWx]

Flurries at the office in Bridgewater. 

[Bxstormwatcher360]

8 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Snowing at phl, new castle and Lehigh valley airports 

I think we get a burst or two..the actual energy is still to our west,so enhancement is not out of question esp along the coast.

[Dark Star]

4 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Seems to be what would be expected from a temperature departure perspective in phase one.

 

Once again, I ask, do the Great Lakes have a different effect on daytime maximums as opposed to overnight minimums in the NYC area?

[Bxstormwatcher360]

Radar starting to bloom along i95 nyc down to phil.. interaction is def happening with this one. We might be in a sweetspot depending on where the precip sets up.

[Stormlover74]

25 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Snowing at phl, new castle and Lehigh valley airports 

Had a few flurries earlier

[sussexcountyobs]

Very light snow starting to fall here in Dumont, NJ

[jm1220]

21 minutes ago, Bxstormwatcher360 said:

Radar starting to bloom along i95 nyc down to phil.. interaction is def happening with this one. We might be in a sweetspot depending on where the precip sets up.

HRRR has flurries to maybe a dusting here or there. Hopefully you’re right. 

[Bxstormwatcher360]

6 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

HRRR has flurries to maybe a dusting here or there. Hopefully you’re right. 

Its flurring here currently. Its def snowing high atop. Skies got dark too.