January 2025

[ForestHillWx]

8 hours ago, psv88 said:

High today was 33. About normal for mid January. 

Come on dude; sarc tag missing. The average at MMU is 39/25… 

[SACRUS]

 

Current cold period departures:

Jan 15:

LGA: 33 / 24 (-5)
NYC: 32 / 23 (-5)
EWR: 35 / 22 (-3)
JFK: 36 / 25 (-2)

[jm1220]

41 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Way colder than expected, down to 13 this AM. 

Westhampton down to 5. 

[North and West]

In Chicago maybe. This January is a nightmare. Still sitting at only about an inch of snow for the season though.
Down to 15 here this morning.

C’mon, why can’t we just admit it’s cold? Not every storm or every cold spell or heat wave has to be of historic proportions. Sometimes it’s just cold… or warm… or dry.

We can’t seem to get over that it was generally colder when we were kids, so we don’t want to acknowledge when it occurs when we’re adults.


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[BlizzLuv]

14 hours ago, wishcast_hater said:

Since Mother Nature is not cooperating I am getting desperate and was looking to make my own snow.
 

 

https://www.snowathome.com/


.

 

I wish I had not seen that...LOL. Tempting!

[the_other_guy]

19 minutes ago, North and West said:

C’mon, why can’t we just admit it’s cold? Not every storm or every cold spell or heat wave has to be of historic proportions. Sometimes it’s just cold… or warm… or dry.

We can’t seem to get over that it was generally colder when we were kids, so we don’t want to acknowledge when it occurs when we’re adults.


.

The most ridiculous thing I have seen in this forum.

The first truly cold January in a while…and we have a handful of guys on here (and they are generally well respected guys) trying to convince us it isnt cold.

”alternative facts” as Ms Conway likes to say. 

 

20F in Westchester. Weird trend I notice, when FOK area radiates real well…by area doesnt.

[MJO812]

23 here

This is what winter feels like

 Stop complaining

[MJO812]

6z Euro brrr

[bluewave]

30 minutes ago, North and West said:

C’mon, why can’t we just admit it’s cold? Not every storm or every cold spell or heat wave has to be of historic proportions. Sometimes it’s just cold… or warm… or dry.

We can’t seem to get over that it was generally colder when we were kids, so we don’t want to acknowledge when it occurs when we’re adults.

I get what you are saying since January is our coldest month of the year. So it’s always going to feel cold when we have the first half of January near normal. Especially with such strong winds like we have been getting. But the 8 station average is only -0.4 and 32.5° for  the 1981-2010 warmest climate normals period. In earlier eras this would have been a warmer than average January so far. Plus after the last 2 Januaries this one feels much colder since it has been. The other issue is that it looks like the tree growth has created some cooling at Central Park since it has the coldest departure out of any of the stations. This effect has been more prominent when the trees have been fully leafed out. 

New Brunswick….0.0…32.2°

EWR…-0.2…33.0°

NYC…-2.1…32.1°

LGA….-1.8…33.2°

JFK….+0.9…34.4°

HPN….+0.2…30.5°

BDR……0.0…32.0°

ISP……-0.1…..32.1°

AVG….-0.4….32.5°

 

[Rjay]

8 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

The most ridiculous thing I have seen in this forum.

The first truly cold January in a while…and we have a handful of guys on here (and they are generally well respected guys) trying to convince us it isnt cold.

”alternative facts” as Ms Conway likes to say. 

 

20F in Westchester. Weird trend I notice, when FOK area radiates real well…by area doesnt.

Here's an actual fact:

HPN is +0.2 this month against the warmest normals we've had.

[North and West]

I get what you are saying since January is our coldest month of the year. So it’s always going to feel cold when we have the first half of January near normal. Especially with such strong winds like we have been getting. But the 8 station average is only -0.4 and 32.5° for  the 1981-2010 warmest climate normals period. In earlier eras this would have been a warmer than average January so far. Plus after the last 2 Januaries this one feels much colder since it has been. The other issue is that it looks like the tree growth has created some cooling at Central Park since it has the coldest departure out of any of the stations. This effect has been more prominent when the trees have been fully leafed out. 
New Brunswick….0.0…32.2°
EWR…-0.2…33.0°
NYC…-2.1…32.1°
LGA….-1.8…33.2°
JFK….+0.9…34.4°
LGA….-1.8….33.2°
HPN….+0.2…30.5°
BDR……0.0…32.0°
ISP……-0.1…..32.1°
AVG….-0.4….32.5°
 

Right. We get that we’re screwing up the chemistry of the atmosphere, but let’s enjoy it when the cake is comes out the way we like it!

It’s akin to be annoyed that no matter how good you look in a photo today, you’re not as young as you were ten years ago.


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[North and West]

Here's an actual fact:
HPN is +0.2 this month against the warmest normals we've had.

are they taking temperatures next to the jet engine?


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[Rjay]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I get what you are saying since January is our coldest month of the year. So it’s always going to feel cold when we have the first half of January near normal. Especially with such strong winds like we have been getting. But the 8 station average is only -0.4 and 32.5° for  the 1981-2010 warmest climate normals period. In earlier eras this would have been a warmer than average January so far. Plus after the last 2 Januaries this one feels much colder since it has been. The other issue is that it looks like the tree growth has created some cooling at Central Park since it has the coldest departure out of any of the stations. This effect has been more prominent when the trees have been fully leafed out. 

New Brunswick….0.0…32.2°

EWR…-0.2…33.0°

NYC…-2.1…32.1°

LGA….-1.8…33.2°

JFK….+0.9…34.4°

HPN….+0.2…30.5°

BDR……0.0…32.0°

ISP……-0.1…..32.1°

AVG….-0.4….32.5°

 

Next week should eliminate those positive departures. 

[bluewave]

Just now, North and West said:

Right. We get that we’re screwing up the chemistry of the atmosphere, but let’s enjoy it when the cake is comes out the way we like it!

It’s akin to be annoyed that no matter how good you look in a photo today, you’re not as young as you were ten years ago.


.

Getting annoyed by certain types of weather is a different topic than what types of patterns are average now vs in the past.

[lee59]

The wind has made it feel colder than what it is, so far the month is normal January cold. After next week the area should be decisively below normal for the month.

[the_other_guy]

5 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Here's an actual fact:

HPN is +0.2 this month against the warmest normals we've had.

yeh and the rest of the region is negative…and not by a decimal point dude.

Which tells me HPN is the outlier…like JFK last month

[Rjay]

1 minute ago, the_other_guy said:

yeh and the rest of the region is negative…and not by a decimal point dude.

Which tells me HPN is the outlier…like JFK last month

The only 2 stations solidly below normal are NYC and LGA by ~2 degrees. 

[North and West]

Getting annoyed by certain types of weather is a different topic than what types of patterns are average now vs in the past.

My parents are in Florida for a month starting this week and my dad called this morning to let me know it’s chilly. It’s 50°.


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[lee59]

17 degrees here this morning

[Rjay]

6 minutes ago, lee59 said:

The wind has made it feel colder than what it is, so far the month is normal January cold. After next week the area should be decisively below normal for the month.

Yup and hopefully we get some snow to accompany that. 

[bluewave]

16 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Next week should eliminate those positive departures. 

That’s true. It will be interesting to see how close we can come to January 2022 cold levels when the month finishes. With enough cold it’s possible that spots like Newark could have a rare month under 30° like in 2022. The cold in the forecast for next week is much more impressive than anything we have seen so far this month and winter to date. Especially for areas that missed out on the great radiational cooling that arrived right before Christmas.

[jm1220]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That’s true. It will be interesting to see how close we can come to January 2022 cold levels when the month finishes. With enough cold it’s possible that spots like Newark could have a rare month under 30° like in 2022. The cold in the forecast for next week is much more impressive than anything we have seen so far this month and winter to date. Especially for areas that missed out on the great radiational cooling that arrived right before Christmas.

Models are showing us in the low single digits and below zero just inland on Tue AM and any snow cover would make it even colder. It’s not historic cold but impressive all the same. 

[Allsnow]

Just now, jm1220 said:

Models are showing us in the low single digits and below zero just inland on Tue AM and any snow cover would make it even colder. It’s not historic cold but impressive all the same. 

The longevity of this colder regime is the most impressive to me. As I said to Bluewave yesterday, we haven’t experienced this in a very long time 

[donsutherland1]

32 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

The most ridiculous thing I have seen in this forum.

The first truly cold January in a while…and we have a handful of guys on here (and they are generally well respected guys) trying to convince us it isnt cold.

”alternative facts” as Ms Conway likes to say. 

 

20F in Westchester. Weird trend I notice, when FOK area radiates real well…by area doesnt.

So far, NYC is having its 6th coldest January since 2010, but the coldest period still lies ahead. By the time the month is finished, January 2025 will likely be among the five coldest Januaries since 2010.

[Allsnow]

30 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Next week should eliminate those positive departures. 

It will all becomes a mute point at that time 

[EastonSN+]

Intriguing look at the end of the month. Heights over Alaska and the trough south of Greenland have been static all winter season. Now we get an RNA pumping up the southeast ridge. Unlike recent years the RNA at this time does not look to be that deep, which can easily work in our favor as that can allow Southwest flow events. We play with fire here as if the RNA gets too deep the southeast ridge will take over. That being said, that trough south of Greenland will continue to allow for a confluence and mitigate the South East ridge encroachment. 

Don/Blue Wave are there any good analogs for this type of setup? Not sure if I remember seeing this before.

[kat5hurricane]

21 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Models are showing us in the low single digits and below zero just inland on Tue AM and any snow cover would make it even colder. It’s not historic cold but impressive all the same. 

Honestly, even slightly below normal for a lengthy amount of time feels impressively cold compared to what our bodies have been used to feeling this decade of winters. At least to me it does, so next week is going to feel brutal but at least it'll feel less brutal if we have some snowcover to enjoy.

[EastonSN+]

The gefs races the mjo through phase 3 into phase 4 for by the end of the month.

The Pacific view below matches the amplitude. 

Again phase 3 looks to be a cold phase for February, although that look to me does not look like one that has a lot of precip but someone can correct me if I'm wrong. 

 

 

[bluewave]

23 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Models are showing us in the low single digits and below zero just inland on Tue AM and any snow cover would make it even colder. It’s not historic cold but impressive all the same. 

The GFS raw 2m low temps have been verifying closer than the Euro for NYC in recent years with these Arctic outbreaks. NYC usually needs a N to NW flow to drop under 5°. This was the case in early February 2023 when NYC made it down to 3°. The GFS has upper single digits to near 10° for NYC. Even if we blend the guidance it’s been tough for NYC to dip under 5° with westerly flow Arctic outbreaks. 
 

 

[Allsnow]