January 2025

[Dark Star]

2 hours ago, NittanyWx said:

There's a limit to how much forestry management can do with this.  Its a perfect trifecta of fire weather conditions.  Just needed one spark.

and let's just hope it was from a spark, not that it really matters...

[bluewave]

Having the 1st half of winter finish closer to average across the Northeast feels much colder given the record warmth last few winters plus the very windy conditions this month.

 

[Big Jims Videos]

22 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

and let's just hope it was from a spark, not that it really matters...

I should probably help take the fire discussion to off topic (mods feel free to move the fire related posts) but I heard today lawsuits were filed against the electric company. It's believed downed wires still charged started the Altadena fire according to the lawsuits. 

[Allsnow]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

Philly is similar to our area since the 90s in needing KU storms that pass within a certain distance of the BM in order to reach 20” on the season. Before the 90s seasons could get either KUs or more moderate events and still reach 20”. So with all the cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks since 18-19, only 20-21 made it over 20” with the great KU storm tracks that winter. 2022 was a little too wide of the BM to the south and east which favored ACY. So the lack of BM KU events in recent years where some part of the region gets a 10”+ jackpots has resulted in the 2020s starting off as the least snowiest decade in several spots. So we will need to see a big storm track improvement back to the BM going forward for the 19-20 to 20-29 to avoid becoming the least snowiest decade across the region.

 

[bluewave]

22 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

19-20 to 20-24 was the first time that the Boston 5 year moving average snowfall dipped down to only 25.1”. The lowest of the 1980s was 31.1”. So the persistent cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks since 18-19 is really being felt across the region. We will need a return of the KU BM storm tracks before 28-29 in order to avoid the least snowiest decade on record for spots across the region.

[donsutherland1]

A colder air mass has returned to the region. Temperatures will generally average below normal across the region through Thursday or Friday before it turns briefly milder.

Highs will mainly be in the lower 30s and lows will mainly be in the lower 20s in New York City and Philadelphia and teens outside the Cities through Thursday.

An extended period of generally below normal temperatures is underway in the New York City area. The cold regime will likely last into at least the fourth week of January. The third week of January could see the month's first genuine Arctic outbreak around the the January 20-23 period. Moreover, there is a chance that New York City could experience temperatures falling into the low teens or even the single digits for lows. Moderation is possible during the closing days of January.

There is potential for some snow to accompany the arrival of the Arctic air and perhaps afterward. However, with the AO forecast to become predominantly positive with the exception of a window during the January 18-24 period, prospects of a 6" or above snowstorm in the New York City and Philadelphia areas could be limited.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around January 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.02°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.70°C. La Niña conditions are underway and will likely persist into the start of spring.

The SOI was -18.41 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.483 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 89% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 30.2° (3.7° below normal).

 

[EastonSN+]

This look could end up snowy if we are on the right side of the gradient. That PV SE of Greenland can help ensure the SE ridge does not link up with the NAO (as long as it's not to Baja).

 

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 70 (1932)
NYC: 70 (1932)
LGA: 64 (1995)
JFK: 60 (1950)


Lows:

EWR: 7 (1957)
NYC: -5 (1914)
LGA: 7 (1988)
JFK: 5 (1988)

Historical:

 

1863 - The greatest snowstorm of record for Cincinnati OH commenced, and a day later twenty inches of snow covered the ground. That total has remained far above the modern day record for Cincinnati of eleven inches of snow in one storm. (David Ludlum)

1882 - Southern California's greatest snow occurred on this date. Fifteen inches blanketed San Bernardino, and even San Diego reported a trace of snow. (David Ludlum)

 

 

1972: In Loma, Montana, the temperature soared from 54 degrees below zero to 49 degrees above zero on January 14-15, 1972. The 103-degree change is the greatest ever recorded in the world for a 24 hour period.

1882: Snow fell in southern California, with the highest amount of 15 inches at San Bernardino. Three feet of snow fell in Campo over four days and produced 8-foot drifts in spots. Two to five inches fell in outlying San Diego, including four inches along Poway Grade, 3 inches at El Cajon, and one inch in Poway. Five inches fell in Riverside. Light snow fell in Del Mar. Snowflakes fell but did not stick at San Diego Lindbergh Field. Birds and livestock were killed, telegraph lines were knocked down, and citrus crops were damaged.

1979 - Chicago, IL, was in the midst of their second heaviest snow of record as, in thirty hours, the city was buried under 20.7 inches of snow. The twenty-nine inch snow cover following the storm was an all-time record for Chicago. (David Ludlum)

1987 - Arctic cold invaded the north central U.S. By evening blustery northwest winds and temperatures near zero at Grand Forks ND were producing wind chill readings of 50 degrees below zero. (National Weather Summary)

1988 - A powerful Pacific storm produced rain and high winds in the western U.S. In Nevada, a wind gust to 90 mph at Reno was an all-time record for that location, and wind gusts reached 106 mph southwest of Reno. A wind gust to 94 mph was recorded at nearby Windy Hill. Rainfall totals in Oregon ranged up to six inches at Wilson River. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - A winter storm spread snow and sleet and freezing rain from the Middle Mississippi Valley to the northeastern U.S. Freezing rain in West Virginia caused fifteen traffic accidents in just a few minutes west of Charleston. Tennessee was deluged with up to 7.5 inches of rain. Two inches of rain near Clarksville TN left water in the streets as high as car doors.

1990 - A winter storm in the southwestern U.S. blanketed the mountains of southwest Utah with 18 to 24 inches of snow, while sunshine and strong southerly winds helped temperatures warm into the 60s in the Central Plains Region. Five cities reported record high temperatures for the date, including North Platte NE with a reading of 63 degrees. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

2009: In Washington State, freezing fog and freezing drizzle enveloped much of the Inland Northwest during 13-23 January 2009. The area most affected by this was the high plateau region along Highway 2 between Wenatchee and Spokane. 

 

2016: Hurricane Alex became the first January hurricane in the Atlantic since Hurricane Alice in 1955.

 

 

[North and West]

19-20 to 20-24 was the first time that the Boston 5 year moving average snowfall dipped down to only 25.1”. The lowest of the 1980s was 31.1”. So the persistent cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks since 18-19 is really being felt across the region. We will need a return of the KU BM storm tracks before 28-29 in order to avoid the least snowiest decade on record for spots across the region.

That’s really interesting. Thanks for sharing. It always seemed to snow easily in Boston up until fairly recently.


.

[sussexcountyobs]

Been getting light snow showers/flurries here for last hour or so. 22°

[sussexcountyobs]

Snowing nicely here now. All surfaces getting whitened.

[Monty]

17 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Snowing nicely here now. All surfaces getting whitened.

Snow squall warning to your north

[mcwx]

6 hours ago, North and West said:

Sorry for the delay, I was busy pushing along the corporate industrial complex.

I think you’re right in that there are some things you just cannot control; an issue is the bureaucratic mismanagement of what you can. I read this from a nonprofit interview earlier this week:

https://www.wsj.com/us-news/fierce-winds-unrelenting-flames-and-rushed-evacuations-the-night-wildfires-engulfed-los-angeles-3dba318c?

‘“City and county officials weren’t immediately available to comment on their brush-management program. 

Jennifer Gray Thompson, CEO of After the Fire USA, a California nonprofit that helps towns rebuild after disasters, said she could see the lack of brush management by L.A. County in a visit with the fire chief of Beverly Hills last year. “You could clearly see where L.A. County property began, full of chaparral,” Thompson said via email. “BH? Mitigated.”’


.

Also, cut down all the Eucalyptus trees. They're non-native and flammable. Yet, people continue to plant them for their desirability as wind breaks. 

[North and West]

Also, cut down all the Eucalyptus trees. They're non-native and flammable. Yet, people continue to plant them for their desirability as wind breaks. 

I’ve heard that. I just read this and it’s along the same vein of not taking care of what you can take care of. https://firesafemarin.org/articles/everything-you-need-to-know-about-eucalyptus-trees/

It’s like around here. You can’t stop windy days; you can prune the trees on your property for dead wood or broken branches to lower the odds of damage when natural phenomena occurs.


.

[Snowstorms]

15 hours ago, bluewave said:

76-77 was the 8th coldest winter temperature on record for NYC since 1870. It was the last time NYC had a top 10 coldest winter at 28.4°. 93-94 was the 20th coldest winter temperature at 31.1°. 14-15 was the 22nd coldest winter at 31.4° and the last time NYC had a winter average under 32.0°.

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1917-1918	25.7	0
2	1880-1881	26.5	0
3	1903-1904	27.3	0
4	1919-1920	27.4	0
5	1874-1875	27.7	4
-	1872-1873	27.7	0
6	1904-1905	28.1	0
7	1935-1936	28.3	0
8	1976-1977	28.4	0
-	1884-1885	28.4	0
-	1882-1883	28.4	0
9	1892-1893	28.6	0
-	1887-1888	28.6	0
10	1878-1879	29.0	2
11	1933-1934	29.1	0
12	1871-1872	29.5	2
13	1962-1963	29.9	0
-	1922-1923	29.9	0
-	1885-1886	29.9	0
-	1876-1877	29.9	0
14	1947-1948	30.0	0
-	1886-1887	30.0	0
-	1883-1884	30.0	0
15	1894-1895	30.2	0
16	1977-1978	30.3	0
17	1969-1970	30.5	0
-	1944-1945	30.5	0
18	1911-1912	30.7	0
19	1958-1959	30.8	0
20	1993-1994	31.1	0
-	1934-1935	31.1	0
21	2002-2003	31.2	0
-	1967-1968	31.2	0
-	1909-1910	31.2	0
-	1870-1871	31.2	4
22	2014-2015	31.4	0
-	1921-1922	31.4	0
23	1898-1899	31.5	0
24	1939-1940	31.6	0
-	1906-1907	31.6	0
25	1960-1961	31.7	0
-	1916-1917	31.7	0
-	1900-1901	31.7	0
26	1913-1914	31.9	0

Thank you and @donsutherland1 for sharing that.

Those top 10 winters in your list were also impressively cold here too. 1874-75 actually beat 1976-77 by a hair. But the severity of the cold in 1976-77 remains unmatched. Toronto went a staggering 51 days below freezing in a row. 1977-78 was impressive too with 41 straight days. Almost all of our coldest winters were either cold Neutrals or weak El Ninos. 

Honorable mention is the February 1979 cold outbreak. We went 10 straight days below 14. I think even NYC with the exception of one day for a couple hours, practically went 15 straight days below freezing. 

 

[Snowstorms]

12 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

CFS weekly stronger with the -EPO on current run pushing the SE ridge. Deeper vortex over Atlantic. Something to watch as we head towards February. SE ridge lower on New run.

Previous 

Current

 

 

 

The bottom image looks more like a neutral EPO and strong Aleutian ridge pattern, typical Nina look with the weak SE ridge.

[RU848789]

11 hours ago, NittanyWx said:

There's a limit to how much forestry management can do with this.  Its a perfect trifecta of fire weather conditions.  Just needed one spark.

Yep, NJ has nowhere near the fire risk that Cali does - it's in the desert with incredibly dry fuels from months without rain (much more of a 6- month drought than we ever get), plus we don't ever get 5-10% humidity with dry wind gusts over 70 mph - the only time we get gusts over 40 or maybe 50 mph is from a storm bringing moisture.  Throw in more density in their forested areas, plus the very rugged terrain and less water available to fight fires and there's the recipe for disaster.  As we see almost every year, despite CA probably having the most advanced firefighting systems and personnel anywhere.  

 

[NorthShoreWx]

5 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

1882: Snow fell in southern California, with the highest amount of 15 inches at San Bernardino. Three feet of snow fell in Campo over four days and produced 8-foot drifts in spots. Two to five inches fell in outlying San Diego, including four inches along Poway Grade, 3 inches at El Cajon, and one inch in Poway. Five inches fell in Riverside. Light snow fell in Del Mar. Snowflakes fell but did not stick at San Diego Lindbergh Field. 

 

San Diego had an airport in 1882?