January 2025

[donsutherland1]

Next week will likely see temperatures bottom out in the lower teens or possibly even single digits in New York City as a genuine Arctic air mass overspreads the region. However, the cold air coming from near or off Russia is not exceptionally cold for the season, so that precludes the kind of strong Arctic outbreaks seen in 1985, 1994, and 2016.

[forkyfork]

15 minutes ago, North and West said:

California manages forestry like the Giants manage offensive lines… poorly.


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the humidity was near 0% with 100 mph winds

[Allsnow]

 

[Allsnow]

24 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The EPS, GEPS and GEFS all show it in the closing days of this month. Verbatim, the end of the runs also show the ridge over AK starting to retrograde out towards the Aleutians. This is the GEPS/EPS, GEFS is the same:

 

 

 

 

It’s been stuck inside that timeframe 

[LibertyBell]

20 minutes ago, psv88 said:

It’s more so arsonists lighting fires when it’s dry and windy. There’s no way to “manage” that. Many of the areas that burned are suburban areas, not even forests at all. 

the winds were unprecedented too and it's been very dry there.

I think everyone wants la nina to end, I really wish we could control it and make it so la nina could only happen once every 10 years. And control marine heatwaves through artificial upwelling.

Controlling ocean currents would be absolutely awesome, maybe one day.

[North and West]

the humidity was near 0% with 100 mph winds

That’s akin (on a far smaller scale) to not clearing your gutters or storm drains before a heavy rain or building on a storm-prone coast or taking care of your body and diet even if you can’t change genetic predisposition; you can’t control the rate or lack of precipitation, but you can mitigate what’s within your grasp.


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[forkyfork]

1 minute ago, North and West said:

That’s akin (on a far smaller scale) to not clearing your gutters or storm drains before a heavy rain or building on a storm-prone coast or taking care of your body and diet even if you can’t change genetic predisposition; you can’t control the rate or lack of precipitation, but you can mitigate what’s within your grasp.


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you know what clears the brush? fire

[LibertyBell]

28 minutes ago, North and West said:

California manages forestry like the Giants manage offensive lines… poorly.


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Giants and Jets need to relocate somewhere else and we need new teams.  Like LA got them and the Rams won the SB right after.

I'm fully on board with making the Giants and Jets both leave.

 

[North and West]

you know what clears the brush? fire

Prescribed burns. New Jersey does a lot poorly, but manages forestry very well.


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[LibertyBell]

Just now, North and West said:

Prescribed burns. New Jersey does a lot poorly, but manages forestry very well.


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we had this issue last October too.

Funny that back in 2002 when it was also very dry we didn't have any fires.

Funny that in 1965 into 1966 our driest period on record we didn't have any fires.

The fact is we have gotten unnaturally high rainfall from starting from 2005 onwards.  It's caused a lot of excessive growth that needs to be chopped down (including in our parks!)  Once we remove that growth the chances for fire will be less.  The same needs to be done in California.

There are also other issues, like power companies needing to shut power off when the wind is very high (they have been sued for not doing this before.)

[bluewave]

7 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

Philly is similar to our area since the 90s in needing KU storms that pass within a certain distance of the BM in order to reach 20” on the season. Before the 90s seasons could get either KUs or more moderate events and still reach 20”. So with all the cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks since 18-19, only 20-21 made it over 20” with the great KU storm tracks that winter. 2022 was a little too wide of the BM to the south and east which favored ACY. So the lack of BM KU events in recent years where some part of the region gets a 10”+ jackpots has resulted in the 2020s starting off as the least snowiest decade in several spots. So we will need to see a big storm track improvement back to the BM going forward for the 19-20 to 20-29 to avoid becoming the least snowiest decade across the region.

[EastonSN+]

CFS weekly stronger with the -EPO on current run pushing the SE ridge. Deeper vortex over Atlantic. Something to watch as we head towards February. SE ridge lower on New run.

Previous 

Current

 

 

 

[SnowGoose69]

51 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Unlike earlier in the year, this time it actually fits Niña climo to turn to a canonical look. -AAM, jet retraction, very strong EWB coming up, convection moving along…..2010-11 did the same thing right around the same time. That was also a front loaded Nina winter, cold from late November to late January then it flipped

It torched everywhere though after that.  If I remember right even places like SLC/SEA had record warm Februarys in 2011.  The entire pattern just went full blown 01-02

[EastonSN+]

17 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It torched everywhere though after that.  If I remember right even places like SLC/SEA had record warm Februarys in 2011.  The entire pattern just went full blown 01-02

We still managed two snow events after the flip. The February rainstorm which started with one to three inches of snow, and an overrunning event in March which I believe Central Park had 4.5 inches of snow. At this point a repeat of 2011 would be welcomed LOL.

[Brian5671]

20 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It torched everywhere though after that.  If I remember right even places like SLC/SEA had record warm Februarys in 2011.  The entire pattern just went full blown 01-02

We lucked out though, it was fairly dry so the melt of the 50-60 inch snowpack was gradual...a few cutters would have been disastrous...

[snowman19]

29 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It torched everywhere though after that.  If I remember right even places like SLC/SEA had record warm Februarys in 2011.  The entire pattern just went full blown 01-02

Not sure about SEA but I remember the high latitude -NAO/-AO blocking started to break down in late January, 2011. Then at the start of February it went full blown canonical Niña with a big -PNA/Aleutian ridge/SE ridge and all the blocking was totally gone. It followed a typical “front loaded” cold late Nov - late Jan Niña climo winter in the east though

[EastonSN+]

13 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Not sure about SEA but I remember the high latitude -NAO/-AO blocking started to break down in late January, 2011. Then at the start of February it went full blown canonical Niña with a big -PNA/Aleutian ridge/SE ridge and all the blocking was totally gone. It followed a typical “front loaded” cold late Nov - late Jan Niña climo winter in the east though

I have to point out we still had two snow events following the pattern flip. 

[NJwx85]

Lots of potential here.

 

[EastonSN+]

5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Lots of potential here.

 

Blocking weakening. Forky mentioned previously the end of month for potential as the blocking migrated and broke down.

[Allsnow]

No signs of the southeast ridge on the gfs op. Just the tpv over our heads till the end of the month 

[SnowGoose69]

4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

No signs of the southeast ridge on the gfs op. Just the tpv over our heads till the end of the month 

Unfortunately its been bad in the long range this winter.  the EPS has tended to verify better past D10 on the overall look

[bluewave]

On 1/11/2025 at 2:27 PM, LibertyBell said:

I have a different question.... granted CC is making our snowfall more extreme (either a lot or not much).... but how is CC causing all this abnormal snowfall way south where it doesn't normally ever snow? We had another year in this decade where Texas was completely frozen and there was widespread snow in the Deep South too.  It can't be that our snowfall is going down but the snowfall in the Deep South is going up?

The long term snowfall in the South is declining. But since the bar is lower for average there, it’s easier for an event or two to reach average. So if you average less than 10” annually, it doesn’t take much to have an occasional average to above average season. This is like what happened during May 2020 in NYC. All it took was a T to tie the previous snowiest May on record in 1977. May 2020 was the only month in NYC since 2018-2019 with a new snowiest month or tie of a previous snowiest month. 
 

 

[NittanyWx]

2 hours ago, North and West said:

Prescribed burns. New Jersey does a lot poorly, but manages forestry very well.


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There's a limit to how much forestry management can do with this.  Its a perfect trifecta of fire weather conditions.  Just needed one spark.

[North and West]

There's a limit to how much forestry management can do with this.  Its a perfect trifecta of fire weather conditions.  Just needed one spark.

Sorry for the delay, I was busy pushing along the corporate industrial complex.

I think you’re right in that there are some things you just cannot control; an issue is the bureaucratic mismanagement of what you can. I read this from a nonprofit interview earlier this week:

https://www.wsj.com/us-news/fierce-winds-unrelenting-flames-and-rushed-evacuations-the-night-wildfires-engulfed-los-angeles-3dba318c?

‘“City and county officials weren’t immediately available to comment on their brush-management program. 

Jennifer Gray Thompson, CEO of After the Fire USA, a California nonprofit that helps towns rebuild after disasters, said she could see the lack of brush management by L.A. County in a visit with the fire chief of Beverly Hills last year. “You could clearly see where L.A. County property began, full of chaparral,” Thompson said via email. “BH? Mitigated.”’


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[SACRUS]

 

32/ 6 sunny and breezy.  Core of the deepest cold looking 1/21 - 1/26 coming up.  We'll see if we can beat the seasonal low readings and daily cold departures.

 

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Next week will likely see temperatures bottom out in the lower teens or possibly even single digits in New York City as a genuine Arctic air mass overspreads the region. However, the cold air coming from near or off Russia is not exceptionally cold for the season, so that precludes the kind of strong Arctic outbreaks seen in 1985, 1994, and 2016.

If the flow remains off the Great Lakes, then NYC may struggle to get much under 10°. But more of a N to NW flow then NYC could make it into the single digits. NYC was able was able to dip to 3° on 2-4-23 due to the cold air drain down the Hudson Valley avoiding the warmer Great Lakes.

[Silver Meteor]

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I think the extreme cold started in October with temps in the upper 20s and only got stronger from there-- truly historic stuff, more rare than a 2 foot blizzard, that's for sure! But not as much fun....

 

Son of a gun, found this slush wave pic from Delaware in my files. 

 

[North and West]

Son of a gun, found this slush wave pic from Delaware in my files. 

 

That looks otherworldly. Great photo.


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[Dark Star]

4 hours ago, forkyfork said:

the humidity was near 0% with 100 mph winds

You are both correct...

[Dark Star]

4 hours ago, forkyfork said:

you know what clears the brush? fire

Exactly.  Thats what controlled burns are designed to do.   I think they also just lifted their ban on using ocean water to fight forest fires?