January 2025

[EastonSN+]

Just now, Allsnow said:

The Nina look keeps getting pushed back 

There is an X post in the MA forum where the East Coast prediction from the European monthly model showing above average snowfall for February for the MA and Northeast. Grain of salt, but as Bluewave pointed out track is more important than temps in Jan/February.

[donsutherland1]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

and it was after that we banned the aerosols, Don?

this is why there are major projects now underway to emit aerosols into the upper atmosphere beginning in 2030 to neutralize climate change, Don.  All that needs to be done is to block 1% of sunlight....

The aerosols were progressively reduced due to their health impact. It was only later that scientists concluded that aerosols had driven the post-1950 cooling. Aerosol injections could well have unintended adverse consequences. I still believe the better route is to address the root cause of the issue, namely the burning of fossil fuels. But, we'll see where things are in the 2030s.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

The aerosols were progressively reduced due to their health impact. It was only later that scientists concluded that aerosols had driven the post-1950 cooling. Aerosol injections could well have unintended adverse consequences. I still believe the better route is to address the root cause of the issue, namely the burning of fossil fuels. But, we'll see where things are in the 2030s.

I agree with you there, but I think both will need to be done, because there is going to be a big lag effect when burning of fossil fuels is reduced and even ended and meanwhile a great deal of damage will have happened before we see the effects of reducing and even stopping them, like the multibillion dollar disasters as we have seen becoming far too common.  So I believe the two will have to be done in conjunction.

[bluewave]

30 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

So you are saying that the winds in the deep south were the same as the NYC metro area?  And that the core of the cold air dropped south, west of the northeast coast, which is not uncommon, since places like Atlanta are farther west and the southern coast tapers westward.  I was also told that the night time temperatures in NW New Jersey had bigger temperature drops at night.  Surely they are closer to the Great Lakes?

The nighttime temperatures in NW New Jersey have been warmer for average for January so far. The one time they got really cold was right before Christmas. That was when we had the great radiational cooling with the record high pressure. So there was no flow across the Great Lakes. 

 

[EastonSN+]

29 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

From NE subforum 

https://x.com/meteomark/status/1879062270723977690?s=46&t=m4Eqkekadb-JCXTm7k-Txg

 

[EastonSN+]

23 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The aerosols were progressively reduced due to their health impact. It was only later that scientists concluded that aerosols had driven the post-1950 cooling. Aerosol injections could well have unintended adverse consequences. I still believe the better route is to address the root cause of the issue, namely the burning of fossil fuels. But, we'll see where things are in the 2030s.

I agree on the best route being the root cause. However, how is it possible to get developing countries onboard.

I did not know until now about the aerosols very interesting. 

[EastonSN+]

Strong wave developing in phase 2 and 3. Looks to die out before the end of the month. 

[Snowshack]

3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I agree on the best route being the root cause. However, how is it possible to get developing countries onboard.

I did not know until now about the aerosols very interesting. 

Challenging, when we can't even get our own on board.

[donsutherland1]

11 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I agree on the best route being the root cause. However, how is it possible to get developing countries onboard.

I did not know until now about the aerosols very interesting. 

Unfortunately, a growing convergence of factors makes the kind of global cooperation that led to the Montreal Protocol to protect the ozone layer unlikely anytime soon when it comes to addressing fossil fuel burning. I don't see that changing for at least this decade, as the factors underpinning the status quo are likely too strong to overcome.

[forkyfork]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

76-77 was the 8th coldest winter temperature on record for NYC since 1870. It was the last time NYC had a top 10 coldest winter at 28.4°. 93-94 was the 20th coldest winter temperature at 31.1°. 14-15 was the 22nd coldest winter at 31.4° and the last time NYC had a winter average under 32.0°.

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1917-1918	25.7	0
2	1880-1881	26.5	0
3	1903-1904	27.3	0
4	1919-1920	27.4	0
5	1874-1875	27.7	4
-	1872-1873	27.7	0
6	1904-1905	28.1	0
7	1935-1936	28.3	0
8	1976-1977	28.4	0
-	1884-1885	28.4	0
-	1882-1883	28.4	0
9	1892-1893	28.6	0
-	1887-1888	28.6	0
10	1878-1879	29.0	2
11	1933-1934	29.1	0
12	1871-1872	29.5	2
13	1962-1963	29.9	0
-	1922-1923	29.9	0
-	1885-1886	29.9	0
-	1876-1877	29.9	0
14	1947-1948	30.0	0
-	1886-1887	30.0	0
-	1883-1884	30.0	0
15	1894-1895	30.2	0
16	1977-1978	30.3	0
17	1969-1970	30.5	0
-	1944-1945	30.5	0
18	1911-1912	30.7	0
19	1958-1959	30.8	0
20	1993-1994	31.1	0
-	1934-1935	31.1	0
21	2002-2003	31.2	0
-	1967-1968	31.2	0
-	1909-1910	31.2	0
-	1870-1871	31.2	4
22	2014-2015	31.4	0
-	1921-1922	31.4	0
23	1898-1899	31.5	0
24	1939-1940	31.6	0
-	1906-1907	31.6	0
25	1960-1961	31.7	0
-	1916-1917	31.7	0
-	1900-1901	31.7	0
26	1913-1914	31.9	0

i want everyone here to look at this list and then tell me with a straight face that this winter has been "cold"

[ForestHillWx]

You know things are bad when the January thread morphs into the climate change thread.

[donsutherland1]

9 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

i want everyone here to look at this list and then tell me with a straight face that this winter has been "cold"

For context, the Winter 2024-25 mean temperature (through January 13th) is 36.6° in New York City.

[forkyfork]

6 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

You know things are bad when the January thread morphs into the climate change thread.

well when we easily get top 10 warm winters but only one top 10 cold winter in the past 90 years i think it's worth discussing 

[psv88]

9 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

You know things are bad when the January thread morphs into the climate change thread.

What else you want to talk about?

[bluewave]

14 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

That's probably the rarest type of winter and will probably never happen again (at least not in our lifetimes.)

 

The top winters with snow cover at JFK.... 1960-61, 1977-78, 1993-94, 1995-96, 2002-03, 2010-11.... in chronological order? I'm not sure if I left any out.

 

Anything at or above 32 days for JFK qualifies for the 10 highest number of days with 1” of snow OTG.

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Oct through Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1995-1996	50	0
2	2014-2015	48	0
3	1977-1978	44	0
4	2002-2003	43	0
-	1960-1961	43	1
5	2010-2011	41	0
6	1976-1977	38	0
7	2004-2005	36	0
8	2000-2001	35	0
9	2013-2014	34	0
-	1963-1964	34	0
10	1993-1994	32	0

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Anything at or above 32 days for JFK qualifies for the 10 highest number of days with 1” of snow OTG.

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Oct through Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1995-1996	50	0
2	2014-2015	48	0
3	1977-1978	44	0
4	2002-2003	43	0
-	1960-1961	43	1
5	2010-2011	41	0
6	1976-1977	38	0
7	2004-2005	36	0
8	2000-2001	35	0
9	2013-2014	34	0
-	1963-1964	34	0
10	1993-1994	32	0

wow no wonder I have such positive memories of 2014-15, it was so close to 1995-96.....

 

 

[bluewave]

7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

wow no wonder I have such positive memories of 2014-15, it was so close to 1995-96.....

 

 

14-15 was the only season with so many days having 1” OTG following a top 5 warmest Christmas high temperature.

Data for December 25 - JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2015-12-25	64	52	0.10	0.0	0
2020-12-25	60	29	0.59	0.0	0
1982-12-25	58	42	0.01	0.0	0
2014-12-25	57	42	0.06	0.0	0
2008-12-25	57	32	0.06	0.0	0
1994-12-25	57	41	T	0.0	0
1964-12-25	56	42	0.02	0.0	0

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The nighttime temperatures in NW New Jersey have been warmer for average for January so far. The one time they got really cold was right before Christmas. That was when we had the great radiational cooling with the record high pressure. So there was no flow across the Great Lakes. 

 

we still haven't beaten those low temperatures of 11-12 from back then.

Nor the snowfall.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

14-15 was the only season with so many days with 1” OTG that had a top 5 warmest Christmas high temperature.

Data for December 25 - JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2015-12-25	64	52	0.10	0.0	0
2020-12-25	60	29	0.59	0.0	0
1982-12-25	58	42	0.01	0.0	0
2014-12-25	57	42	0.06	0.0	0
2008-12-25	57	32	0.06	0.0	0
1994-12-25	57	41	T	0.0	0
1964-12-25	56	42	0.02	0.0	0

Such a Jekyll and Hyde winter, even the New England people almost gave up on winter after December was so mild.

Was that an el nino Chris?

[bluewave]

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

we still haven't beaten those low temperatures of 11-12 from back then.

Nor the snowfall.

11-12 got pushed further back in the pack after all the warmth since then.

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending average winter low temperature

1	2015-2016	34.0	0
2	2001-2002	33.5	0
3	2016-2017	33.2	0
4	2023-2024	33.0	0
-	1997-1998	33.0	0
5	2011-2012	32.7	0
6	1982-1983	32.6	0
7	2022-2023	32.5	0
8	1974-1975	32.2	0
-	1952-1953	32.2	0
9	2019-2020	32.1	0

[snowman19]

The Nina look keeps getting pushed back 

The EPS, GEPS and GEFS all show it in the closing days of this month. Verbatim, the end of the runs also show the ridge over AK starting to retrograde out towards the Aleutians. This is the GEPS/EPS, GEFS is the same:

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

11-12 got pushed further back in the pack after all the warmth since then.

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending average winter low temperature

1	2015-2016	34.0	0
2	2001-2002	33.5	0
3	2016-2017	33.2	0
4	2023-2024	33.0	0
-	1997-1998	33.0	0
5	2011-2012	32.7	0
6	1982-1983	32.6	0
7	2022-2023	32.5	0
8	1974-1975	32.2	0
-	1952-1953	32.2	0
9	2019-2020	32.1	0

no no, I meant the temperatures we had last December of 11 degrees to 12 degrees were the coldest of the season so far, Chris ;-)

 

I love your data but I was talking about something else this time....

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

The EPS, GEPS and GEFS all show it in the closing days of this month. Verbatim, the end of the runs also show the ridge over AK starting to retrograde out towards the Aleutians. This is the GEPS/EPS, GEFS is the same:

 

 

 

 

We have been seeing the models all winter showing this look in the long range just to scale back. 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

The EPS, GEPS and GEFS all show it in the closing days of this month. Verbatim, the end of the runs also show the ridge over AK starting to retrograde out towards the Aleutians. This is the GEPS/EPS, GEFS is the same:

 

 

 

 

Is this going to help end those California fires?

That should be our main concern now.

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

11-12 got pushed further back in the pack after all the warmth since then.

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending average winter low temperature

1	2015-2016	34.0	0
2	2001-2002	33.5	0
3	2016-2017	33.2	0
4	2023-2024	33.0	0
-	1997-1998	33.0	0
5	2011-2012	32.7	0
6	1982-1983	32.6	0
7	2022-2023	32.5	0
8	1974-1975	32.2	0
-	1952-1953	32.2	0
9	2019-2020	32.1	0

wild how 2015-16 was so warm with a HECS that dumped 30"+ of snow here and a -1 low at NYC!

1982-83 was the only other winter even remotely similar to it, Chris!

[North and West]

Is this going to help end those California fires?
That should be our main concern now.

California manages forestry like the Giants manage offensive lines… poorly.


.

[snowman19]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

We have been seeing the models all winter showing this look in the long range just to scale back. 

Unlike earlier in the year, this time it actually fits Niña climo to turn to a canonical look. -AAM, jet retraction, very strong EWB coming up, convection moving along…..2010-11 did the same thing right around the same time. That was also a front loaded Nina winter, cold from late November to late January then it flipped

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

wild how 2015-16 was so warm with a HECS that dumped 30"+ of snow here and a -1 low at NYC!

1982-83 was the only other winter even remotely similar to it, Chris!

The record warmth in December 2015.

 

Monthly Mean Min Temperature for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2015-2016

44.2

27.6

30.1

34.0

 

[psv88]

4 minutes ago, North and West said:

California manages forestry like the Giants manage offensive lines… poorly.


.

It’s more so arsonists lighting fires when it’s dry and windy. There’s no way to “manage” that. Many of the areas that burned are suburban areas, not even forests at all. 

[North and West]

I think going the anticorporation route is easier, a vast majority of americans are now anticorporation.
welcome to the club....
the only people who are pro corporation are the politicians who take bribes from them (and both major political parties are guilty as sin of this.)
 
 

That’s too simplistic. What do you invest in? I’m pro-making money.

Broad brushstrokes can hurt a lot of the rank and file in corporate America.

Organizations aren’t inherently good or evil; they’re doing what the public demands. We know snack foods and too salty and not good for you, b it we can demanding them. Alcohol causes a lot of problems, but people can’t stop. Organizations go where the demand is.


.