January 2025

[bluewave]

27 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Sometimes this isn't so, depending upon timing of fronts, clouds, inversions, etc.  And wind.

This is a function of the record Great Lakes warmth combined with lower pressures and stronger winds. So the clouds and wind at night kept the minimum departures up preventing good radiational cooling. More clouds during the day reduced the sunshine with lower maximum temperature departures across the region. But both the maximum and minimum departures were lower further south where the flow didn’t cross the warmer Great Lakes. Plus Eastern Canada has been very warm leading to the delayed freeze-up on Hudson Bay. So multiple ways to get a warmer departure north and colder departure south pattern.

 

 

[LibertyBell]

27 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This is a function of the record Great Lakes warmth combined with lower pressures and stronger winds. So the clouds and wind at night kept the minimum departures up preventing good radiational cooling. More clouds during the day reduced the sunshine with lower maximum temperature departures across the region. But both the maximum and minimum departures were lower further south where the flow didn’t cross the warmer Great Lakes. Plus Eastern Canada has been very warm leading to the delayed freeze-up on Hudson Bay. So multiple ways to get a warmer departure north and colder departure south pattern.

 

 

Yes, but the actual temperatures themselves were not colder in the South? Except near the ocean where it's always warmer anyway.

[bluewave]

46 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes, but the actual temperatures themselves were not colder in the South? Except near the ocean where it's always warmer anyway.

CRW is actually colder than ALB which is pretty rare in early January. 

CRW…..25.3°….-9.9°

ALB…….26.0°…+0.7°

[MJO812]

Brrr

[donsutherland1]

A cold front will cross the region tonight or early tomorrow morning, possibly with some snow flurries. In its wake, temperatures will again be below normal through at least Friday.

Highs will mainly be in the lower 30s and lows will mainly be in the lower 20s in New York City and Philadelphia and teens outside the Cities.

An extended period of generally below normal temperatures is underway in the New York City area. The cold regime will likely last into at least the fourth week of January. The third week of January could see the month's first genuine Arctic outbreak around the the January 20-23 period. There is potential for some snow to accompany the arrival of the Arctic air. Moreover, there is a chance that New York City could experience temperatures falling into the low teens or even the single digits for lows. Moderation is possible during the closing days of January.

There is potential for some snow to accompany the arrival of the Arctic air. However, with the AO forecast to become predominantly positive with the exception of a window during the January 18-24 period, prospects of a 6" or above snowstorm in the New York City and Philadelphia areas could be limited.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around January 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.02°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.70°C. La Niña conditions are underway and will likely persist into the start of spring.

The SOI was -19.12 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.303 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 88% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 30.3° (3.6° below normal).

 

[MJO812]

Wow

[cleetussnow]

33 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Wow

Shheesh.  Without snow that would just be a bummer.

[bluewave]

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Thanks Chris, do you have a similar list for JFK? Wild how high up 1976-77 is on this list and we only had about 25" of snow that winter?

76-77 was the coldest winter on record for JFK with an average temperature of 28.0°. So even though the snowfall total was only 22.7” for the season, JFK was able have 38 days with 1” of snow depth. It was the only time JFK had 35+ days with 1” OTG and under 33.8” on the season.

76-77 was one of those winters from a colder era when we could get numerous smaller and one moderate event and have a snowfall total in the 20s without someone in the area getting a big KU and 10”+ totals. The heaviest snowfall that winter was a 4-6” moderate event in mid-January.

 

Data for January 14, 1977 through January 15, 1977
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NY	MINEOLA	COOP	6.5
NY	ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP	WBAN	6.3
NY	NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN	COOP	6.0
NY	NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS	COOP	6.0
NJ	TETERBORO AIRPORT	WBAN	6.0
NY	SCARSDALE	COOP	6.0
NY	MARYKNOLL	COOP	5.9
NY	RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM	COOP	5.8
NY	JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	5.6
NY	PATCHOGUE 2 N	COOP	5.5
NJ	PLAINFIELD	COOP	5.2
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	5.2
NJ	CRANFORD	COOP	5.0
NJ	CANOE BROOK	COOP	5.0
NJ	MAHWAH	COOP	5.0
NY	BRIDGEHAMPTON	COOP	5.0
NY	LAGUARDIA AIRPORT	WBAN	4.8
NY	DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY	COOP	4.7
NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	4.5
NJ	LITTLE FALLS	COOP	4.5
NJ	CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR	COOP	4.5
NY	BEDFORD HILLS	COOP	4.5
NY	SETAUKET STRONG	COOP	4.5
NY	WESTCHESTER CO AP	WBAN	4.3

[LibertyBell]

21 minutes ago, bluewave said:

76-77 was the coldest winter on record for JFK with an average temperature of 28.0°. So even though the snowfall total was only 22.7” for the season, JFK was able have 38 days with 1” of snow depth. It was the only time JFK had 35+ days with 1” OTG and under 33.8” on the season.

76-77 was one of those winters from a colder era when we could get numerous smaller and one moderate event and have a snowfall total in the 20s without someone in the area getting a big KU and 10”+ totals. The heaviest snowfall that winter was a 4-6” moderate event in mid-January.

 

Data for January 14, 1977 through January 15, 1977
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NY	MINEOLA	COOP	6.5
NY	ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP	WBAN	6.3
NY	NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN	COOP	6.0
NY	NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS	COOP	6.0
NJ	TETERBORO AIRPORT	WBAN	6.0
NY	SCARSDALE	COOP	6.0
NY	MARYKNOLL	COOP	5.9
NY	RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM	COOP	5.8
NY	JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	5.6
NY	PATCHOGUE 2 N	COOP	5.5
NJ	PLAINFIELD	COOP	5.2
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	5.2
NJ	CRANFORD	COOP	5.0
NJ	CANOE BROOK	COOP	5.0
NJ	MAHWAH	COOP	5.0
NY	BRIDGEHAMPTON	COOP	5.0
NY	LAGUARDIA AIRPORT	WBAN	4.8
NY	DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY	COOP	4.7
NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	4.5
NJ	LITTLE FALLS	COOP	4.5
NJ	CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR	COOP	4.5
NY	BEDFORD HILLS	COOP	4.5
NY	SETAUKET STRONG	COOP	4.5
NY	WESTCHESTER CO AP	WBAN	4.3

That's probably the rarest type of winter and will probably never happen again (at least not in our lifetimes.)

 

The top winters with snow cover at JFK.... 1960-61, 1977-78, 1993-94, 1995-96, 2002-03, 2010-11.... in chronological order? I'm not sure if I left any out.

 

[Volcanic Winter]

@Typhoon Tipalways has such a way with words .

[NorthShoreWx]

9 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

I'm still holding some paltry snow piles

We don't brag about that until May 

[Volcanic Winter]

Just now, NorthShoreWx said:

We don't brag about that until May 

Jealous?

[NorthShoreWx]

7 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Jealous?

This is sadder than I thought.  I have more than that.

 

Edit:  PS I wish I was lying.

[EWR757]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

That's probably the rarest type of winter and will probably never happen again (at least not in our lifetimes.)

 

The top winters with snow cover at JFK.... 1960-61, 1977-78, 1993-94, 1995-96, 2002-03, 2010-11.... in chronological order? I'm not sure if I left any out.

 

Does anyone know where snow is measured at JFK?  Before airport reconstruction it was measured on the roof of the International Arrivals Building using a plastic cafeteria tray.  

[rclab]

42 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

We don't brag about that until May 

 

34 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

This is sadder than I thought.  I have more than that.

 

Edit:  PS I wish I was lying.

…. Good thing we’re talking about snow. As always ….

[rclab]

29 minutes ago, rclab said:

 

…. Good thing we’re talking about snow. As always ….

Appropriate Rjay …… no complaints. As always ……

[Snowstorms]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

76-77 was the coldest winter on record for JFK with an average temperature of 28.0°. So even though the snowfall total was only 22.7” for the season, JFK was able have 38 days with 1” of snow depth. It was the only time JFK had 35+ days with 1” OTG and under 33.8” on the season.

76-77 was one of those winters from a colder era when we could get numerous smaller and one moderate event and have a snowfall total in the 20s without someone in the area getting a big KU and 10”+ totals. The heaviest snowfall that winter was a 4-6” moderate event in mid-January.

 

Data for January 14, 1977 through January 15, 1977
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NY	MINEOLA	COOP	6.5
NY	ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP	WBAN	6.3
NY	NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN	COOP	6.0
NY	NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS	COOP	6.0
NJ	TETERBORO AIRPORT	WBAN	6.0
NY	SCARSDALE	COOP	6.0
NY	MARYKNOLL	COOP	5.9
NY	RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM	COOP	5.8
NY	JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	5.6
NY	PATCHOGUE 2 N	COOP	5.5
NJ	PLAINFIELD	COOP	5.2
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	5.2
NJ	CRANFORD	COOP	5.0
NJ	CANOE BROOK	COOP	5.0
NJ	MAHWAH	COOP	5.0
NY	BRIDGEHAMPTON	COOP	5.0
NY	LAGUARDIA AIRPORT	WBAN	4.8
NY	DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY	COOP	4.7
NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	4.5
NJ	LITTLE FALLS	COOP	4.5
NJ	CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR	COOP	4.5
NY	BEDFORD HILLS	COOP	4.5
NY	SETAUKET STRONG	COOP	4.5
NY	WESTCHESTER CO AP	WBAN	4.3

What are NYC's top 10 coldest winters since 1950, irrespective of normals. 

1976-77 is Toronto's coldest winter as well with a mean temp of 16.8 for DJF. 1969-70 and 1944-45 are tied for second and 1993-94 and 1977-78 are tied for third.

[Silver Meteor]

6 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

That's probably the rarest type of winter and will probably never happen again (at least not in our lifetimes.)

 

The top winters with snow cover at JFK.... 1960-61, 1977-78, 1993-94, 1995-96, 2002-03, 2010-11.... in chronological order? I'm not sure if I left any out.

 

The winter of 76-77 does seem to be a once in a lifetime event (and not typical of some "era.") I was 25 years old and living in Maryland that winter, one like none I'd ever seen before or seen since, three months of perpetual cold. There's a video clip from that winter with waves of slush rolling into the Delaware beaches. Who knows what freaks of nature lie ahead in the coming years and decades.   

[donsutherland1]

6 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

What are NYC's top 10 coldest winters since 1950, irrespective of normals. 

1976-77 is Toronto's coldest winter as well with a mean temp of 16.8 for DJF. 1969-70 and 1944-45 are tied for second and 1993-94 and 1977-78 are tied for third.

Here's a list of New York City's coldest winters since 1950:

[bluewave]

7 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

What are NYC's top 10 coldest winters since 1950, irrespective of normals. 

1976-77 is Toronto's coldest winter as well with a mean temp of 16.8 for DJF. 1969-70 and 1944-45 are tied for second and 1993-94 and 1977-78 are tied for third.

76-77 was the 8th coldest winter temperature on record for NYC since 1870. It was the last time NYC had a top 10 coldest winter at 28.4°. 93-94 was the 20th coldest winter temperature at 31.1°. 14-15 was the 22nd coldest winter at 31.4° and the last time NYC had a winter average under 32.0°.

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1917-1918	25.7	0
2	1880-1881	26.5	0
3	1903-1904	27.3	0
4	1919-1920	27.4	0
5	1874-1875	27.7	4
-	1872-1873	27.7	0
6	1904-1905	28.1	0
7	1935-1936	28.3	0
8	1976-1977	28.4	0
-	1884-1885	28.4	0
-	1882-1883	28.4	0
9	1892-1893	28.6	0
-	1887-1888	28.6	0
10	1878-1879	29.0	2
11	1933-1934	29.1	0
12	1871-1872	29.5	2
13	1962-1963	29.9	0
-	1922-1923	29.9	0
-	1885-1886	29.9	0
-	1876-1877	29.9	0
14	1947-1948	30.0	0
-	1886-1887	30.0	0
-	1883-1884	30.0	0
15	1894-1895	30.2	0
16	1977-1978	30.3	0
17	1969-1970	30.5	0
-	1944-1945	30.5	0
18	1911-1912	30.7	0
19	1958-1959	30.8	0
20	1993-1994	31.1	0
-	1934-1935	31.1	0
21	2002-2003	31.2	0
-	1967-1968	31.2	0
-	1909-1910	31.2	0
-	1870-1871	31.2	4
22	2014-2015	31.4	0
-	1921-1922	31.4	0
23	1898-1899	31.5	0
24	1939-1940	31.6	0
-	1906-1907	31.6	0
25	1960-1961	31.7	0
-	1916-1917	31.7	0
-	1900-1901	31.7	0
26	1913-1914	31.9	0

[Dark Star]

16 hours ago, bluewave said:

This is a function of the record Great Lakes warmth combined with lower pressures and stronger winds. So the clouds and wind at night kept the minimum departures up preventing good radiational cooling. More clouds during the day reduced the sunshine with lower maximum temperature departures across the region. But both the maximum and minimum departures were lower further south where the flow didn’t cross the warmer Great Lakes. Plus Eastern Canada has been very warm leading to the delayed freeze-up on Hudson Bay. So multiple ways to get a warmer departure north and colder departure south pattern.

 

 

So you are saying that the winds in the deep south were the same as the NYC metro area?  And that the core of the cold air dropped south, west of the northeast coast, which is not uncommon, since places like Atlanta are farther west and the southern coast tapers westward.  I was also told that the night time temperatures in NW New Jersey had bigger temperature drops at night.  Surely they are closer to the Great Lakes?

[EastonSN+]

If I am not mistaken it looks like the PV is disrupted again on the ensembles. Could make for an interesting February. 

 

[LibertyBell]

25 minutes ago, bluewave said:

76-77 was the 8th coldest winter temperature on record for NYC since 1870. It was the last time NYC had a top 10 coldest winter at 28.4°. 93-94 was the 20th coldest winter temperature at 31.1°. 14-15 was the 22nd coldest winter at 31.4° and the last time NYC had a winter average under 32.0°.

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1917-1918	25.7	0
2	1880-1881	26.5	0
3	1903-1904	27.3	0
4	1919-1920	27.4	0
5	1874-1875	27.7	4
-	1872-1873	27.7	0
6	1904-1905	28.1	0
7	1935-1936	28.3	0
8	1976-1977	28.4	0
-	1884-1885	28.4	0
-	1882-1883	28.4	0
9	1892-1893	28.6	0
-	1887-1888	28.6	0
10	1878-1879	29.0	2
11	1933-1934	29.1	0
12	1871-1872	29.5	2
13	1962-1963	29.9	0
-	1922-1923	29.9	0
-	1885-1886	29.9	0
-	1876-1877	29.9	0
14	1947-1948	30.0	0
-	1886-1887	30.0	0
-	1883-1884	30.0	0
15	1894-1895	30.2	0
16	1977-1978	30.3	0
17	1969-1970	30.5	0
-	1944-1945	30.5	0
18	1911-1912	30.7	0
19	1958-1959	30.8	0
20	1993-1994	31.1	0
-	1934-1935	31.1	0
21	2002-2003	31.2	0
-	1967-1968	31.2	0
-	1909-1910	31.2	0
-	1870-1871	31.2	4
22	2014-2015	31.4	0
-	1921-1922	31.4	0
23	1898-1899	31.5	0
24	1939-1940	31.6	0
-	1906-1907	31.6	0
25	1960-1961	31.7	0
-	1916-1917	31.7	0
-	1900-1901	31.7	0
26	1913-1914	31.9	0

also the only winter that averaged below 30.0 since 1933-34, crazy stuff!

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Here's a list of New York City's coldest winters since 1950:

what was going on to have such extremely cold winters back to back back then Don? I know they were both el ninos but you NEVER see this kind of cold in an el nino, not like 76-77 and 77-78

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, Silver Meteor said:

The winter of 76-77 does seem to be a once in a lifetime event (and not typical of some "era.") I was 25 years old and living in Maryland that winter, one like none I'd ever seen before or seen since, three months of perpetual cold. There's a video clip from that winter with waves of slush rolling into the Delaware beaches. Who knows what freaks of nature lie ahead in the coming years and decades.   

I think the extreme cold started in October with temps in the upper 20s and only got stronger from there-- truly historic stuff, more rare than a 2 foot blizzard, that's for sure! But not as much fun....

 

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, EWR757 said:

Does anyone know where snow is measured at JFK?  Before airport reconstruction it was measured on the roof of the International Arrivals Building using a plastic cafeteria tray.  

That might explain the 14" total from the February 1978 blizzard lol.

And even with that historic undermeasurement JFK still got over 60" in that winter!

 

[donsutherland1]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

what was going on to have such extremely cold winters back to back back then Don? I know they were both el ninos but you NEVER see this kind of cold in an el nino, not like 76-77 and 77-78

The Earth was also gradually cooling, as it turned out from rising aerosols that were gradually reducing the amount of energy from the sun reaching the Earth. There were extensive deep pools of cold and sufficient blocking to lock in the cold in the Northeast.

[Allsnow]

5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

If I am not mistaken it looks like the PV is disrupted again on the ensembles. Could make for an interesting February. 

 

The Nina look keeps getting pushed back 

[MJO812]

Just now, Allsnow said:

The Nina look keeps getting pushed back 

Just in time for Spring

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

The Earth was also gradually cooling, as it turned out from rising aerosols that were gradually reducing the amount of energy from the sun reaching the Earth. There were extensive deep pools of cold and sufficient blocking to lock in the cold in the Northeast.

and it was after that we banned the aerosols, Don?

this is why there are major projects now underway to emit aerosols into the upper atmosphere beginning in 2030 to neutralize climate change, Don.  All that needs to be done is to block 1% of sunlight....