EastonSN+ Posted Sunday at 04:34 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:34 PM Interesting development on the 12z GFS and CMC. Both models suits now have a great lakes low much further south than last runs. Wouldn't take much to get further south. Instead of one low with the precipitation going in the Canada, the initial wave in Canada is much weaker and the follow-up wave stronger. Next runs will be very interesting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted Sunday at 04:35 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:35 PM GFS blew major chunks with its "storm" depiction for Friday night. I'll take the other models over it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegan_edible Posted Sunday at 04:36 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:36 PM Just now, SnoSki14 said: GFS blew major chunks with its "storm" depiction for Friday night. I'll take the other models over it yeah was gonna say it hasn't been very reliable with storms this year in particular. so lets just wait and see how this pans out. i do have a feeling this is probs our best window of opportunity so lets just hope we can score the 4+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted Sunday at 04:38 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:38 PM 12z 6z In my opinion this is an improvement. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted Sunday at 04:40 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:40 PM I don't trust the CMC however it's been pretty consistent with a general storm track on the East Coast. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Sunday at 04:43 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:43 PM 7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: GFS blew major chunks with its "storm" depiction for Friday night. I'll take the other models over it Yeah, this won’t work for snow here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Sunday at 04:48 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:48 PM 4 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Yeah, this won’t work for snow here Brutal cold on the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted Sunday at 04:49 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:49 PM The lack of good radiational cooling so far this month is keeping the outlying areas departures warmer than the urban areas. POU…+1.6 HPN…+0.1 ISP…..+0.1 JFK…+0.6 BDR….0.0 SMQ…+0.2 EWR…-0.6 LGA….-2.3 NYC….-2.6 New Brunswick…+0.2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcwx Posted Sunday at 04:50 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:50 PM 3 hours ago, bluewave said: New Brunswick is +0.2 for January so far with the warmer minimums and cooler maximums. Climatological Data for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx) - January 2025Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Sum 425 293 - - 354 0 0.84 1.5 - Average 38.6 26.6 32.6 0.2 - - - - 0.3 Normal 40.8 24.0 32.4 - 359 0 1.35 2.5 2025-01-01 56 39 47.5 14.3 17 0 0.24 0.0 0 2025-01-02 49 35 42.0 9.0 23 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-01-03 44 30 37.0 4.1 28 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-01-04 38 28 33.0 0.3 32 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-01-05 34 25 29.5 -3.0 35 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-01-06 34 26 30.0 -2.4 35 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-01-07 30 18 24.0 -8.2 41 0 0.10 1.0 1 2025-01-08 34 23 28.5 -3.6 36 0 0.00 0.0 1 2025-01-09 31 20 25.5 -6.5 39 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-01-10 35 23 29.0 -2.8 36 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-01-11 40 26 33.0 1.3 32 0 0.50 0.5 1 2025-01-12 M M M M M M M M M 2025-01-13 M M M M M M M M M 2025-01-14 M M M M M M M M M 2025-01-15 M M M M M M M M M 2025-01-16 M M M M M M M M M 2025-01-17 M M M M M M M M M 2025-01-18 M M M M M M M M M 2025-01-19 M M M M M M M M M 2025-01-20 M M M M M M M M M 2025-01-21 M M M M M M M M M 2025-01-22 M M M M M M M M M 2025-01-23 M M M M M M M M M 2025-01-24 M M M M M M M M M 2025-01-25 M M M M M M M M M 2025-01-26 M M M M M M M M M 2025-01-27 M M M M M M M M M 2025-01-28 M M M M M M M M M 2025-01-29 M M M M M M M M M 2025-01-30 M M M M M M M M M 2025-01-31 M M M M M M M M M Interesting since TTN (Trenton) is -3.0 for the month so far. [TEMPERATURE DATA] AVERAGE MONTHLY: 29.4 DPTR FM NORMAL: -3.0 and that site only had 2 AN days on the 1st and 2nd. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted Sunday at 04:57 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:57 PM 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: But we are also cycling backs to a drier period as the historic all time dryness October-mid November period showed. I strongly suspect we will get another period like that this year, likely in the early part of the summer this time. Perhaps, but the long-term trend still favors wetter years. There will be internal variability on a year-to-year basis. Drier cycles will probably be wetter than they were in the past, though stuck patterns such as what occurred in October may also increase in frequency. 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: Don, is this why no one ever talked about the EPO before the early 2010s? I suspect that the difficulty using it for forecasting purposes likely precluded much discussion. There is literature that goes back to the 1980s that I'm aware of. I suspect improvement in modeling resolution, better understanding of ocean-atmosphere dynamics (including second order effects), and AI/ML may add to forecasting skill over the next decade or so. But there may still be real limits on forecasting capacity beyond 15 days even then. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted Sunday at 05:06 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:06 PM 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted Sunday at 05:14 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:14 PM 31 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Yeah, this won’t work for snow here Not a chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted Sunday at 05:15 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:15 PM 26 minutes ago, bluewave said: The lack of good radiational cooling so far this month is keeping the outlying areas departures warmer than the urban areas. POU…+1.6 HPN…+0.1 ISP…..+0.1 JFK…+0.6 BDR….0.0 SMQ…+0.2 EWR…-0.6 LGA….-2.3 NYC….-2.6 New Brunswick…+0.2 wind. lots of it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted Sunday at 05:22 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:22 PM Three opportunities for snowfall on the GFS 12z run. A couple need a little work but not that at this range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Sunday at 05:26 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:26 PM 36 minutes ago, mcwx said: Interesting since TTN (Trenton) is -3.0 for the month so far. [TEMPERATURE DATA] AVERAGE MONTHLY: 29.4 DPTR FM NORMAL: -3.0 and that site only had 2 AN days on the 1st and 2nd. it's weird also because somehow JFK is a little above normal and NYC and LGA are both way below normal. There has been zero ocean influence this year so no idea what's going on. I want to see the actual averages for all these locations to be compared directly, rather than just these departures from average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted Sunday at 06:03 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:03 PM 35 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: it's weird also because somehow JFK is a little above normal and NYC and LGA are both way below normal. There has been zero ocean influence this year so no idea what's going on. I want to see the actual averages for all these locations to be compared directly, rather than just these departures from average. Through January 11th, every high and low at JFK has been above that at Central Park. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Sunday at 06:20 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:20 PM Brutal cold air on all the models 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Sunday at 06:34 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:34 PM EPS wants nothing to do with warmth in the east 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Sunday at 06:35 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:35 PM 31 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Through January 11th, every high and low at JFK has been above that at Central Park. wow I wonder why, even LGA is colder and they are the local hotspot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Sunday at 06:36 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:36 PM 15 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Brutal cold air on all the models could be a milder version of 76-77 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Sunday at 06:37 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:37 PM 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: EPS wants nothing to do with warmth in the east at this rate it probably won't come until February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted Sunday at 06:46 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:46 PM 2 hours ago, mcwx said: Interesting since TTN (Trenton) is -3.0 for the month so far. [TEMPERATURE DATA] AVERAGE MONTHLY: 29.4 DPTR FM NORMAL: -3.0 and that site only had 2 AN days on the 1st and 2nd. Areas just to the south are colder so far this month since the flow isn’t coming directly off the warmer Great Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted Sunday at 07:05 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:05 PM Colder compared to norms, not colder in actual temps; not to nit-pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted Sunday at 07:08 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:08 PM Made it up to 45 before more clouds moves in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted Sunday at 07:09 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:09 PM 18 minutes ago, bluewave said: Areas just to the south are colder so far this month since the flow isn’t coming directly off the warmer Great Lakes. Lakes and Hudson Bay have to be freezing over some by this point though, no? If yes, then a discharge similar to last week’s would probably be a touch colder in terms of sensible weather, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted Sunday at 07:21 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:21 PM Beautiful day today. People out and about. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted Sunday at 07:24 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:24 PM Just now, psv88 said: Beautiful day today. People out and about out. Totally agree. Having had to get acclimated to even a modest stretch of 30s the past few weeks made a sunny and calm 42 today feel beautiful, as you say. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Sunday at 07:29 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:29 PM 8 minutes ago, psv88 said: Beautiful day today. People out and about. one more for tomorrow I'm fine with 40s and sunny it's the rain I hate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Sunday at 07:30 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:30 PM 21 minutes ago, SACRUS said: Made it up to 45 before more clouds moves in. the sun is back out here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Sunday at 07:31 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:31 PM 44 minutes ago, bluewave said: Areas just to the south are colder so far this month since the flow isn’t coming directly off the warmer Great Lakes. if the great lakes are so much warmer, shouldn't they be dumping a ton of snow in the lake effect belts and wouldn't the flow off all that snow cover make us much colder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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