January 2025

[WestBabylonWeather]

10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

90s were fine because of 1992-93, 1993-94 and 1995-96

None of the other winters matter.

 

Late 90s sucked 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, WestBabylonWeather said:

Late 90s sucked 

everything after 1995-96 was a blur to me lol

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

The 1990s were the All or nothing home run hitters of the winter decades.

this is why the 80s/early 90s were the worst decade between 1983-84 up to 1991-92

 

 

[NEG NAO]

If Only Dreams Came True........

[donsutherland1]

The teleconnections are forecast to move into a combination that has often been associated with moderate or significant snowstorms in New York City. Based on the 12/27 0z EPS and latest 46-day ECMWF forecast, the teleconnections could be in a favorable state through January 20th.

Moderate or significant snowfalls are still infrequent events.

Assuming that the favorable combination occurs and persists through January 20th, one will need to look for additional factors:

- Sufficient cold: Likely through most of the period
- Short waves that could become storms: Multiple candidates on the guidance through 15 days
- Synoptic details: TBD (can't be reliably forecast beyond 5-7 days)

With the ENSO being in a neutral-cool phase, the active subtropical jet stream that is conducive to the development of Miller A storms is less prominent.

At present, the potential for at least moderate (4" or above) snowfalls will become more favorable than it has been during all of the winter so far. However, the potential still needs to be realized.

Based on the statistics (1950-2024), here's what seems plausible right now for the January 1-20 period:

- Measurable snowfalls: 2-4 days
- 1" or more snowfall: 1-3 days
- 2" or more snowfall: 1-2 days
- 4" or more snowfall: 1 day

Moderate snowfalls: 1 to perhaps 2
Significant snowfalls: Maybe 1

[NEG NAO]

6 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The teleconnections are forecast to move into a combination that has often been associated with moderate or significant snowstorms in New York City. Based on the 12/27 0z EPS and latest 46-day ECMWF forecast, the teleconnections could be in a favorable state through January 20th.

Moderate or significant snowfalls are still infrequent events.

Assuming that the favorable combination occurs and persists through January 20th, one will need to look for additional factors:

- Sufficient cold: Likely through most of the period
- Short waves that could become storms: Multiple candidates on the guidance through 15 days
- Synoptic details: TBD (can't be reliably forecast beyond 5-7 days)

With the ENSO being in a neutral-cool phase, the active subtropical jet stream that is conducive to the development of Miller A storms is less prominent.

At present, the potential for at least moderate (4" or above) snowfalls will become more favorable than it has been during all of the winter so far. However, the potential still needs to be realized.

Based on the statistics (1950-2024), here's what seems plausible right now for the January 1-20 period:

- Measurable snowfalls: 2-4 days
- 1" or more snowfall: 1-3 days
- 2" or more snowfall: 1-2 days
- 4" or more snowfall: 1 day

Moderate snowfalls: 1 to perhaps 2
Significant snowfalls: Maybe 1

In a percentage how likely is the Euro weeklies I posted 1 post above yours to verify across our region ?

[Snowshack]

22 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The teleconnections are forecast to move into a combination that has often been associated with moderate or significant snowstorms in New York City. Based on the 12/27 0z EPS and latest 46-day ECMWF forecast, the teleconnections could be in a favorable state through January 20th.

Moderate or significant snowfalls are still infrequent events.

Assuming that the favorable combination occurs and persists through January 20th, one will need to look for additional factors:

- Sufficient cold: Likely through most of the period
- Short waves that could become storms: Multiple candidates on the guidance through 15 days
- Synoptic details: TBD (can't be reliably forecast beyond 5-7 days)

With the ENSO being in a neutral-cool phase, the active subtropical jet stream that is conducive to the development of Miller A storms is less prominent.

At present, the potential for at least moderate (4" or above) snowfalls will become more favorable than it has been during all of the winter so far. However, the potential still needs to be realized.

Based on the statistics (1950-2024), here's what seems plausible right now for the January 1-20 period:

- Measurable snowfalls: 2-4 days
- 1" or more snowfall: 1-3 days
- 2" or more snowfall: 1-2 days
- 4" or more snowfall: 1 day

Moderate snowfalls: 1 to perhaps 2
Significant snowfalls: Maybe 1

Nice presentation of the data, thanks for posting.   Can't really ask for more than an extended favorable period.    Hopefully we cash in.

[MJO812]

No shock that the gfs is getting better with blocking.  Interior threat possibly for NYD with a possible threat around the 4th /5th and then 9/10.

[MJO812]

Loving the PNA rise and the dip in the AO.

[snowman19]

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

No shock that the gfs is getting better with blocking.  Interior threat possibly for NYD with a possible threat around the 4th /5th and then 9/10.

I doubt NYD is a snow threat even for interior southern New England. Even the mets in that forum are doubting that’s a threat for interior northern New England, let alone SNE

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I doubt NYD is a snow threat even for interior southern New England. Even the mets in that forum are doubting that’s a threat for interior northern New England, let alone SNE

They think it's a possibility.  A small one though. Even CMC is close for them.

[SnoSki14]

33 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

They think it's a possibility.  A small one though. Even CMC is close for them.

That was a nice trend on the GFS. Better Atlantic blocking and stronger heights out west on the GEFS. 

NYD is a long shot due to air mass and less than ideal track but not impossible especially for NW zones and higher elevations

[Allsnow]

I do like seeing some of ops showing the potential in the pattern. Obviously, you can’t take it as gospel but I think it’s important moving forward if the pattern is legit 

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

In a percentage how likely is the Euro weeklies I posted 1 post above yours to verify across our region ?

Its verification requires a major snowstorm. We’ll have to see if things come together. Such storms are uncommon.

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

I doubt NYD is a snow threat even for interior southern New England. Even the mets in that forum are doubting that’s a threat for interior northern New England, let alone SNE

It’s not a snow threat for the NYC area. 

[North and West]

Late 90s sucked 

Early 1990s as well! The past few years have felt like the early and late 1990s again. At least there’s better TV options now.


.

[Allsnow]

That’s some real legit cold on the ensembles to start January. 

[MJO812]

[MJO812]

[Stormlover74]

13 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

What about week 1 to 2 precip?

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

What about week 1 to 2 precip?

Dry

[MJO812]

Weeklies are loaded

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Weeklies are loaded

I want more then 12 over the next 30 days 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I want more then 12 over the next 30 days 

We all do

[wdrag]

Not sure if anyone is noticing the past 3 cycles of the GFS and one or 2 12 hr cycles of CMC,  backside measurable snow down to I84 on Jan 1 as rapid intensification occurs with the neg tilt shortwave near LI.  I see the latest GFS op has heavy snow Catskills on Jan 1.  

 

Gonna be a chilly rain in Time Sq NYE. 

[North and West]

Not sure if anyone is noticing the past 3 cycles of the GFS and one or 2 12 hr cycles of CMC,  backside measurable snow down to I84 on Jan 1 as rapid intensification occurs with the neg tilt shortwave near LI.  I see the latest GFS op has heavy snow Catskills on Jan 1.  
 
Gonna be a chilly rain in Time Sq NYE. 

.

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

We all do

12 inches is a very high amount for an ensemble mean.

[Stormlover74]

gfs has a storm on the 7th and potentially a 2nd one around the 10th

[MJO812]

16 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

12 inches is a very high amount for an ensemble mean.

It's the weeklies 

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

gfs has a storm on the 7th and potentially a 2nd one around the 10th

Models been pretty consistent about that.