January 2025

[Allsnow]

 

[MJO812]

17 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yup, that’s all it needed to see the precipitation dry up 

We all wanted a cold winter but not a dry one.

[Allsnow]

Just now, MJO812 said:

We all wanted a cold winter but not a dry one.

Hopefully Brooklyn posts something soon 

[SACRUS]

37 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

sunrises have just started to get later too

We have gained 2 mins on earlier sunrises 7:18 vs 7:20 the latest.

[brooklynwx99]

4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Hopefully Brooklyn posts something soon 

so apparently we've gone from a "cutter pattern" to a cold and dry one in like two days? how does that happen? those are two completely different patterns

[Allsnow]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

so apparently we've gone from a "cutter pattern" to a cold and dry one in like two days? how does that happen? those are two completely different patterns

The cutter happens around the 19th then we get cold/dry 

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

The cutter happens around the 19th then we get cold/dry 

Say it ain’t so. That never happens, never ever ever. Maybe we can get Charleston to double our snow total this time while we get our consolation dusting gone in an hour! 

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The cutter happens around the 19th then we get cold/dry 

Unless a storm rides the front.  Let's hope the ridge flexibility it's muscle. 

I don't like how the models have gotten colder.

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Unless a storm rides the front.  Let's hope the ridge flexibility it's muscle. 

I don't like how the models have gotten colder.

Best shot will be a weak wave along the front before the cold sets in 

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

And before the blizzard, December 31 1963-January 1, 1964 saw snow in the Deep South. Atlanta picked up 2.2" and Birmingham saw 8.4".

Good morning Don, a bit OT however did a research on how many one foot plus snow storms occurred in the last four periods. Interesting to see the comparison between 1955 and 1969 vs 2000 and 2018. Also 1970 through 1999 compared to the current period:

1955 through 1969 - 8 in 15 seasons.

1970 through 1999 - 6 in 30 seasons.

2000 through 2018 - 10 in 18 seasons.

2019 through 2025 - 1 in 6 seasons.

Seems to be alternating regarding foot plus storms since 1955. 

[donsutherland1]

17 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Open question to the audience, if anybody knows, what is the catalyst for a negative EPO? It seems no matter what the phase is of the mjo, the negative EPO either stays or rebuilds immediately. 

I have heard the chicken or egg argument where it's either the -EPO warms the waters off the West Coast versus the warm Waters off the West Coast creates the negative EPO.

Whatever it is, all year the EPO has been predominantly negative. 

 

 

The pressure dipole that comprises the EPO is a functon of atmosphere-ocean forcing (both ways). Unfortunately, the processes are complex and not well-understood leading to forecasting challenges beyond the short-term. ENSO has an impact, but there is a lot of random variability (likely due to factors that have not been identified and/or are not well-understood). Beyond 10-14 days, EPO forecasts lack skill. This is why the long-range EPS, which has shown a shift to positive values, keeps failing when the timeframe draws closer.

[Dark Star]

1 hour ago, the_other_guy said:

This! I dont know why we are debating this.

This is a much colder and standard winter pattern then we have seen since the super nino in 2015/16.

 

Simple facts…not really debatable.

Dec and Jan will be BN. Let’s see Feb and March

This is never ending.  It is the wind chill that makes it uncomfortable and potentially dangerous to those who work outside, especially in the far northern and western parts of this forum.  The fact remains that we have only been about 0.6 degrees below normal using the arbitrary previous 20 years average, and normal to slightly above normal as compared to the previous 20 years or so before that.

[donsutherland1]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Good morning Don, a bit OT however did a research on how many one foot plus snow storms occurred in the last four periods. Interesting to see the comparison between 1955 and 1969 vs 2000 and 2018. Also 1970 through 1999 compared to the current period:

1955 through 1960 - 8 in 15 seasons.

1970 through 1999 - 6 in 30 seasons.

2000 through 2018 - 10 in 18 seasons.

2019 through 2025 - 1 in 6 seasons.

Seems to be alternating regarding foot plus storms since 1955. 

I suspect that there is a cyclical component. That's part of the reason I have been cautious in noting that it is possible, but not yet certain, that NYC is in the early stages of a decline in seasonal snowfall from warming . The recent low snowfall winters are probably a combination of the two, but more time is needed. By the mid-2030s, it should be clearer as winter temperatures reach thresholds where cities such as Washington saw a decline in seasonal snowfall. Having said that, there is added moisture from the warming atmosphere, hence the big snowstorms are even bigger (1996-2016 period) than they were in the past. Moreover, there will still be snowy winters and big snowstorms for at least decades to come.

[Allsnow]

All the cold going around the block @qg_omega

 

KC -7 for January 

 

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

All the cold going around the block @qg_omega

 

KC -7 for January 

 

But they've also had a lot of snow 

[Allsnow]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

But they've also had a lot of snow 

Yup, farther away from the suppression of the block. 

[SnowGoose69]

32 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

so apparently we've gone from a "cutter pattern" to a cold and dry one in like two days? how does that happen? those are two completely different patterns

Models definitely are overdoing the -PNA long range, they keep trying to have a run or two every few days where they really tank it down to -1 then the average goes back to neutral or positive.  If the MJO wave weakens before it can strongly go through 3 and 4 its hard to believe we ever see this pattern shift, even in February which means sooner or later it'll snow but the 06z runs no doubt again have a look that favors the TN Valley/SE/MA more so

[LibertyBell]

21 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Good morning Don, a bit OT however did a research on how many one foot plus snow storms occurred in the last four periods. Interesting to see the comparison between 1955 and 1969 vs 2000 and 2018. Also 1970 through 1999 compared to the current period:

1955 through 1969 - 8 in 15 seasons.

1970 through 1999 - 6 in 30 seasons.

2000 through 2018 - 10 in 18 seasons.

2019 through 2025 - 1 in 6 seasons.

Seems to be alternating regarding foot plus storms since 1955. 

yes it's cyclic and worth noting, wet and dry are also cyclic, we have entered another dry cycle.

[LibertyBell]

22 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Good morning Don, a bit OT however did a research on how many one foot plus snow storms occurred in the last four periods. Interesting to see the comparison between 1955 and 1969 vs 2000 and 2018. Also 1970 through 1999 compared to the current period:

1955 through 1969 - 8 in 15 seasons.

1970 through 1999 - 6 in 30 seasons.

2000 through 2018 - 10 in 18 seasons.

2019 through 2025 - 1 in 6 seasons.

Seems to be alternating regarding foot plus storms since 1955. 

Don, is this why no one ever talked about the EPO before the early 2010s?

 

[LibertyBell]

16 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I suspect that there is a cyclical component. That's part of the reason I have been cautious in noting that it is possible, but not yet certain, that NYC is in the early stages of a decline in seasonal snowfall from warming . The recent low snowfall winters are probably a combination of the two, but more time is needed. By the mid-2030s, it should be clearer as winter temperatures reach thresholds where cities such as Washington saw a decline in seasonal snowfall. Having said that, there is added moisture from the warming atmosphere, hence the big snowstorms are even bigger (1996-2016 period) than they were in the past. Moreover, there will still be snowy winters and big snowstorms for at least decades to come.

But we are also cycling backs to a drier period as the historic all time dryness October-mid November period showed.  I strongly suspect we will get another period like that this year, likely in the early part of the summer this time.

[qg_omega]

14 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

But they've also had a lot of snow 

It’s not like it’s been too cold for snow, far from it.  Midwest is colder and snowier it’s just big -NAO are not good for snow for the Northeast, they are good for the Midwest south and mid Atlantic.  Negative NAO are only good in a specific combination with the correct orientation

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

But we are also cycling backs to a drier period as the historic all time dryness October-mid November period showed.  I strongly suspect we will get another period like that this year, likely in the early part of the summer this time.

Eventually the AMO will go negative again.  Those typically lead to less snowy/drier winters even if its cold.  Thats partly why the 80s were not terribly snowy, especially western parts of the metro.  Many storms in the 80s favored SNE/Eastern LI

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Eventually the AMO will go negative again.  Those typically lead to less snowy/drier winters even if its cold.  Thats partly why the 80s were not terribly snowy, especially western parts of the metro.  Many storms in the 80s favored SNE/Eastern LI

Thanks, SG, they also lead to more below zero arctic outbreaks.  Are we close to entering another one of these periods? It seems like we've been in a +AMO forever (since 1995 I think?)

[SnowGoose69]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Thanks, SG, they also lead to more below zero arctic outbreaks.  Are we close to entering another one of these periods? It seems like we've been in a +AMO forever (since 1995 I think?)

Some AMO periods have lasted 30-35 years I believe so its not surprising we are delayed.  There were signs a few years back it was going to flip.  I guess the WATL is colder this winter than recent years but we'd need to see a shift in summer months and not see well above normal SSTs

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Some AMO periods have lasted 30-35 years I believe so its not surprising we are delayed.  There were signs a few years back it was going to flip.  I guess the WATL is colder this winter than recent years but we'd need to see a shift in summer months and not see well above normal SSTs

last tropical season was very weird with displacement of african waves further north and historic SAL  and the atlantic was historically quiet during peak tropical season, maybe that was a sign of that happening too?

[qg_omega]

54 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

so apparently we've gone from a "cutter pattern" to a cold and dry one in like two days? how does that happen? those are two completely different patterns

Except they aren’t, we have two warm days, then a few cold days then a cutter and then more of the same with cold and dry before we flip to a torch pattern in February

[SACRUS]

 

Quickly up to 42 here, last of the snow cover is slipping away.

[brooklynwx99]

2 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Except they aren’t, we have two warm days, then a few cold days then a cutter and then more of the same with cold and dry before we flip to a torch pattern in February

yes they are. a cutter pattern has the mean storm track over the OH Valley with a deep -PNA and strong SE ridge. cold and dry has the mean storm track out in the Atlantic with a deep trough over the East. two completely different things. this is a cutter pattern:

also, it doesn't even look dry. precip is about normal and ensembles are still showing a signal for that 18-22nd timeframe. I swear some of you are just making stuff up 

[Allsnow]

Gfs with the cutter next weekend. Looks like it will have nothing behind that one. 

[Metasequoia]

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