January 2025

[LibertyBell]

40 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

It wouldn't take much to outperform the 70s 80s and 90s with regards to average snowfall as all three decades were around 20 inches.

Agreed we will have a huge drop from the 2000s and the 2010s as they were historically high and snowfall and of course matched the 1955 through 1969 period.

All it takes is one higher than average snowfall season to greatly affect the decades average and we've already had one above average snowfall season. Look at the 1990s, if you take 95/96 and convert that to 28 inch average season, suddenly the average for that decade is extremely low. The point being is we have a few years left this decade and there's no reason at all to think we cannot get a major snowfall season. 

Don't forget 1993-94 that was better than any season since 1977-78 and our first great snowfall season since then!

 

[LibertyBell]

41 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

It wouldn't take much to outperform the 70s 80s and 90s with regards to average snowfall as all three decades were around 20 inches.

Agreed we will have a huge drop from the 2000s and the 2010s as they were historically high and snowfall and of course matched the 1955 through 1969 period.

All it takes is one higher than average snowfall season to greatly affect the decades average and we've already had one above average snowfall season. Look at the 1990s, if you take 95/96 and convert that to 28 inch average season, suddenly the average for that decade is extremely low. The point being is we have a few years left this decade and there's no reason at all to think we cannot get a major snowfall season. 

I have zero issues with the 90s because 2 years of 50+ inches of snow is more than enough

 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

20 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I was looking at the longer term snowfall distribution from 1951 to 2020. From the 1950s into the early 1990s we had a high number of years within 5” of that 25” average. With fewer years much higher and much lower. But starting in 1994 it’s fewer years in the median of the distribution range and more years skewed much higher or much lower. So we went from a more compressed distribution near the center to one defined more by extremes.
 

1951-1980…24.8”

1961-1990…23.9”

1971-2000…21.9”

1981-2010….25.3”

1991-2020…29.8”

avg…25.1”

 

I'm splitting hairs here but actually the correct figure for 1951-2020 is 26.3 inches. By adding 30 year averages in ten year increments you're including several decades three times in the average while only using others once or twice. I get your original point though and as always it's a good one.

[bluewave]

11 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I'm splitting hairs here but actually the correct figure for 1951-2020 is 26.3 inches. By adding 30 year averages in ten year increments you're including several decades three times in the average while only using others once or twice. I get your original point though and as always it's a good one.

I understand that. But if you leave out the anomalous 2010s the 1950 to 2009 average was 24.6. So we can either use 25” or 26” and still see a tighter clustering around that midpoint from the 50s into early 90s on a seasonal basis. 

[MANDA]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

 

Happy to say I'm doing better than all of those.  Sitting at 17.3" on the season.

Picked up 1.5" overnight from .08" liquid.  Almost 19:1 ratio.  Very fluff stuff.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I understand that. But if you leave out the anomalous 2010s the 1950 to 2009 average was 24.6. So we can either use 25” or 26” and still see a tighter clustering around that midpoint from the 50s into early 90s on a seasonal basis. 

Well the 1970's and the 1980's were the lowest decades in NYC recorded history. They were anomalous for their low totals. 1970's 21.3 and the 1980's 20.2. Although especially the 1970's were much colder than our new climate.

[psv88]

Will nice Sunday and Monday with sunshine, 40s, no wind 

[dseagull]

Bring on the 1/20-1/21 threat.   

[cleetussnow]

22 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I understand that. But if you leave out the anomalous 2010s the 1950 to 2009 average was 24.6. So we can either use 25” or 26” and still see a tighter clustering around that midpoint from the 50s into early 90s on a seasonal basis. 

You have to leave out some low anomalies too then.  

[cleetussnow]

2 minutes ago, dseagull said:

Bring on the 1/20-1/21 threat.   

I’m not sure there is one.  At all.

[bluewave]

35 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

If we use just decadal averages, the 70s and 80s were our least snowiest decades with the 80s averaging less than 20 inches of snow!

If we use the least snowiest 10 year period, who comes in first? The period from 1983-84 through 1992-93?

 

JFK is off to the slowest snowfall start of any decade going back to the 60s. The first 5 seasons of the 2020s through last year was only 15.0”. The previous slowest start was the 70s at only 15.6”. So JFK will need a big increase in KU events ASAP for through 28-29 to avoid a new lowest snowfall decade. Remember, the last 5 seasons of the 1970s averaged 25.9” to get back to 20.8” on the decade. So JFK will need a big finish to the 2020s to get above 20”.

JFK seasonal snowfall

2020s so far from 19-20 to 20-24….15.0”

2010s…32.3”

2000s…25.1”

1990s…20.8”

1980s…20.4”

1970s…20.8”

1960s…30.4”

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

I’m not sure there is one.  At all.

The cutter will come right on time though. 

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The EPS is correcting sharper with the -PNA trough in the Western US as we approach the 20th. Also more of a Southeast Ridge now than previous runs and trough digging into the Baja. Gradients usually favor the more interior areas for frozen precipitation. Since we often see a stronger Southeast Ridge than forecast once within 168 hrs. But it will still be a window for frozen precipitation here. Just the amounts and exact gradient location will be uncertain until the short term forecasts. Maybe we can get lucky with an overrunning event or two.
 

New run

Old run

 

 

 

 Cutter. Pattern 

 

4+ probably won’t happen in NYC 

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

JFK is off to the slowest snowfall start of any decade going back to the 60s. The first 5 seasons of the 2020s through last year was only 15.0”. The previous slowest start was the 70s at only 15.6”. So JFK will need a big increase in KU events ASAP for through 28-29 to avoid a new lowest snowfall decade. Remember, the last 5 seasons of the 1970s averaged 25.9” to get back to 20.8” on the decade. So JFK will need a big finish to the 2020s to get above 20”.

JFK seasonal snowfall

2020s so far from 19-20 to 20-24….15.0”

2010s…32.3”

2000s…25.1”

1990s…20.8”

1980s…20.4”

1970s…20.8”

1960s…30.4”

Thanks, wow, the 1970s, 80s and 90s were amazingly..... consistent there lol

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The EPS is correcting sharper with the -PNA trough in the Western US as we approach the 20th. Also more of a Southeast Ridge now than previous runs and trough digging into the Baja. Gradients usually favor the more interior areas for frozen precipitation. Since we often see a stronger Southeast Ridge than forecast once within 168 hrs. But it will still be a window for frozen precipitation here. Just the amounts and exact gradient location will be uncertain until the short term forecasts. Maybe we can get lucky with an overrunning event or two.
 

New run

Old run

 

 

 

Good. Put us and this winter out of its misery. 

[LibertyBell]

14 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Will nice Sunday and Monday with sunshine, 40s, no wind 

agreed, just like yesterday!

I hate rain and warm more than anything... well except rain and cold lol.

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

Good. Put us and this winter out of its misery. 

Let’s torch it! 
 

@bluewave when is your inferno p5 coming? I want a torch February 

[qg_omega]

 still waiting for the cold pattern, we are only running slightly below normal….

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, qg_omega said:

 still waiting for the cold pattern, we are only running slightly below normal….

Beer? 
 

it’s been cold 

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Let’s torch it! 
 

@bluewave when is your inferno p5 coming? I want a torch February 

Hopefully it’s a normal Nina torch February. I’m totally serious. If cold means more of this suppressed garbage and windy freezing dry, I’m happy with it gone. Put it out of its misery and CA needs the rain. 

[bluewave]

41 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Well the 1970's and the 1980's were the lowest decades in NYC recorded history. They were anomalous for their low totals. 1970's 21.3 and the 1980's 20.2. Although especially the 1970's were much colder than our new climate.

That’s the point. Even in the 1970s and 1980s the NYC decadal average snowfall got close to or above 20”. The 19-20 to 23-24 new 2020s average so far in NYC is only 14.2”. So NYC will need a big increase the remainder of this season through 2029 to avoid the least snowiest decade on record. Let’s hope the BM KU storm track comes to life in a very big way. Since we don’t have a cold enough climate anymore to get near and into the 20s for seasonal snowfall with a bunch of small to moderate events like numerous years prior to the 1990s.

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	0.0	T	2.6	4.4	7.1	0.1	T	14.2
2023-2024	0.0	T	T	2.3	5.2	T	0.0	7.5
2022-2023	0.0	0.0	T	T	2.2	0.1	0.0	2.3
2021-2022	0.0	T	0.2	15.3	2.0	0.4	0.0	17.9
2020-2021	0.0	0.0	10.5	2.1	26.0	T	0.0	38.6
2019-2020	0.0	0.0	2.5	2.3	T	T	T	4.8

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	T	0.1	2.3	7.9	5.4	3.0	1.0	19.7
1988-1989	0.0	0.0	0.3	5.0	0.3	2.5	0.0	8.1
1987-1988	0.0	1.1	2.6	13.9	1.5	T	0.0	19.1
1986-1987	0.0	T	0.6	13.6	7.0	1.9	0.0	23.1
1985-1986	0.0	T	0.9	2.2	9.9	T	T	13.0
1984-1985	0.0	T	5.5	8.4	10.0	0.2	T	24.1
1983-1984	0.0	T	1.6	11.7	0.2	11.9	0.0	25.4
1982-1983	0.0	0.0	3.0	1.9	21.5	T	0.8	27.2
1981-1982	0.0	0.0	2.1	11.8	0.4	0.7	9.6	24.6
1980-1981	0.0	T	2.8	8.0	T	8.6	0.0	19.4
1979-1980	T	0.0	3.5	2.0	2.7	4.6	T	12.8

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	T	0.3	2.0	8.0	9.9	2.3	0.1	22.5
1978-1979	0.0	2.2	0.5	6.6	20.1	T	T	29.4
1977-1978	0.0	0.2	0.4	20.3	23.0	6.8	T	50.7
1976-1977	0.0	T	5.1	13.0	5.8	0.6	T	24.5
1975-1976	0.0	T	2.3	5.6	5.0	4.4	T	17.3
1974-1975	0.0	0.1	0.1	2.0	10.6	0.3	T	13.1
1973-1974	0.0	0.0	2.8	7.8	9.4	3.2	0.3	23.5
1972-1973	T	T	T	1.8	0.8	0.2	T	2.8
1971-1972	0.0	T	T	2.8	17.8	2.3	T	22.9
1970-1971	0.0	0.0	2.4	11.4	T	1.3	0.4	15.5
1969-1970	0.0	T	6.8	8.4	6.4	4.0	T	25.6

[forkyfork]

13 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Beer? 
 

it’s been cold 

ewr is -.6 against the warmest 30 year normals we've had

[WX-PA]

20 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Good. Put us and this winter out of its misery. 

This winter has been ok so far. It has been colder than normal and some snow and a white Christmas for some.All thats missing so far is the big snowstorm..This winter reminds me of winters in the 70s and 80s especially with the cold.

[Allsnow]

11 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

ewr is -.6 against the warmest 30 year normals we've had

Obviously not frigid but it’s still cold. Not historic but it’s the first winter we have had a long stretch of below avg temps. 
 

 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

27 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That’s the point. Even in the 1970s and 1980s the NYC decadal average snowfall got close to or above 20”. The 19-20 to 23-24 new 2020s average so far in NYC is only 14.2”. So NYC will need a big increase the remainder of this season through 2029 to avoid the least snowiest decade on record. Let’s hope the BM KU storm track comes to life in a very big way. Since we don’t have a cold enough climate anymore to get near and into the 20s for seasonal snowfall with a bunch of small to moderate events like numerous years prior to the 1990s.

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	0.0	T	2.6	4.4	7.1	0.1	T	14.2
2023-2024	0.0	T	T	2.3	5.2	T	0.0	7.5
2022-2023	0.0	0.0	T	T	2.2	0.1	0.0	2.3
2021-2022	0.0	T	0.2	15.3	2.0	0.4	0.0	17.9
2020-2021	0.0	0.0	10.5	2.1	26.0	T	0.0	38.6
2019-2020	0.0	0.0	2.5	2.3	T	T	T	4.8

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	T	0.1	2.3	7.9	5.4	3.0	1.0	19.7
1988-1989	0.0	0.0	0.3	5.0	0.3	2.5	0.0	8.1
1987-1988	0.0	1.1	2.6	13.9	1.5	T	0.0	19.1
1986-1987	0.0	T	0.6	13.6	7.0	1.9	0.0	23.1
1985-1986	0.0	T	0.9	2.2	9.9	T	T	13.0
1984-1985	0.0	T	5.5	8.4	10.0	0.2	T	24.1
1983-1984	0.0	T	1.6	11.7	0.2	11.9	0.0	25.4
1982-1983	0.0	0.0	3.0	1.9	21.5	T	0.8	27.2
1981-1982	0.0	0.0	2.1	11.8	0.4	0.7	9.6	24.6
1980-1981	0.0	T	2.8	8.0	T	8.6	0.0	19.4
1979-1980	T	0.0	3.5	2.0	2.7	4.6	T	12.8

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	T	0.3	2.0	8.0	9.9	2.3	0.1	22.5
1978-1979	0.0	2.2	0.5	6.6	20.1	T	T	29.4
1977-1978	0.0	0.2	0.4	20.3	23.0	6.8	T	50.7
1976-1977	0.0	T	5.1	13.0	5.8	0.6	T	24.5
1975-1976	0.0	T	2.3	5.6	5.0	4.4	T	17.3
1974-1975	0.0	0.1	0.1	2.0	10.6	0.3	T	13.1
1973-1974	0.0	0.0	2.8	7.8	9.4	3.2	0.3	23.5
1972-1973	T	T	T	1.8	0.8	0.2	T	2.8
1971-1972	0.0	T	T	2.8	17.8	2.3	T	22.9
1970-1971	0.0	0.0	2.4	11.4	T	1.3	0.4	15.5
1969-1970	0.0	T	6.8	8.4	6.4	4.0	T	25.6

Can you match up the monthly temperature averages, for the 1970's and 1980's against the 2000's and 2010's? I'm curious how much colder the 1970-1989 period was compared to the much snowier period of 2000-2019 period.

[qg_omega]

10 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Obviously not frigid but it’s still cold. Not historic but it’s the first winter we have had a long stretch of below avg temps. 
 

 

It’s near normal, nothing close to actual cold weather so far

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

21 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

ewr is -.6 against the warmest 30 year normals we've had

It's funny how many people seem to miss that point completely. We keep raising the bar against the averages by recalculating every ten years.

A better comparison would be to compare the current monthly average temperatures against the average temperature from 1870-1979.  I use that period because the noticeable increases seem to accelerate in the 1980's.

If you use those instead of the NEW 1991-2020 averages this would just be another above normal month. December 2024 would also be above normal.

[cleetussnow]

2 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

It's funny how many people seem to miss that point completely. We keep raising the bar against the averages by recalculating every ten years.

A better comparison would be to compare the current monthly average temperatures against the average temperature from 1870-1979.  I use that period because the noticeable increases seem to accelerate in the 1980's.

If you use those instead of the NEW 1991-2020 averages this would just be another above normal month. December 2024 would also be above normal.

Even better go back 100,000 years.  Its insanely hot!

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Thanks, wow, the 1970s, 80s and 90s were amazingly..... consistent there lol

We had a much narrower distribution range of snowfall back in that era. So many years closer to something in the middle. ISP has probably seen the most extreme distribution or variance shift. From 1963 to 1993 there were 15 seasons clustered in the 18-32” range. Since 1994 only 1 season in that mid range. All the other seasons were dominated by very high and very low years since then.

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	0.0	0.4	5.3	10.2	9.9	5.5	0.7	32.0
2023-2024	0.0	T	T	3.1	7.8	0.0	0.0	10.9
2022-2023	0.0	0.0	0.4	T	3.0	1.6	0.0	5.0
2021-2022	0.0	T	0.3	31.8	3.3	1.6	0.0	37.0
2020-2021	T	0.0	7.5	1.1	24.9	T	T	33.5
2019-2020	0.0	0.1	4.2	2.5	0.0	T	T	6.8
2018-2019	0.0	4.3	T	0.9	3.5	4.1	T	12.8
2017-2018	0.0	T	6.0	22.0	1.4	31.9	4.6	65.9
2016-2017	T	T	3.2	14.0	14.7	7.4	T	39.3
2015-2016	0.0	0.0	T	24.8	13.2	3.2	0.2	41.4
2014-2015	0.0	T	0.4	30.2	13.4	19.7	0.0	63.7
2013-2014	0.0	0.3	8.1	25.2	24.5	5.4	0.2	63.7
2012-2013	0.0	4.2	0.6	3.3	31.4	7.4	0.0	46.9
2011-2012	0.3	0.0	T	3.8	0.6	T	0.0	4.7
2010-2011	0.0	T	14.9	34.4	3.9	2.1	T	55.3
2009-2010	0.0	0.0	25.3	6.4	21.7	0.4	0.0	53.8
2008-2009	0.0	T	10.4	8.9	3.3	13.6	T	36.2
2007-2008	0.0	0.0	2.6	0.8	7.3	T	0.0	10.7
2006-2007	0.0	T	0.0	1.0	4.2	3.8	T	9.0
2005-2006	0.0	0.5	7.6	4.7	19.9	3.2	0.1	36.0
2004-2005	0.0	T	7.0	21.5	17.0	13.3	0.0	58.8
2003-2004	0.0	0.0	15.5	19.1	1.1	5.7	0.0	41.4
2002-2003	0.0	1.0	16.0	2.6	26.3	3.7	5.0	54.6
2001-2002	0.0	0.0	0.0	3.7	T	T	0.0	3.7
2000-2001	T	0.0	10.8	9.2	8.6	10.3	T	38.9
1999-2000	0.0	T	0.4	5.8	2.6	0.2	T	9.0
1998-1999	0.0	0.0	3.0	4.5	2.8	9.1	T	19.4
1997-1998	0.0	T	1.0	T	T	1.6	T	2.6
1996-1997	0.0	T	1.2	3.3	2.2	3.7	2.0	12.4
1995-1996	0.0	3.0	13.3	20.2	19.0	12.0	9.6	77.1
1994-1995	0.0	T	T	T	5.1	T	0.0	5.1
1993-1994	0.0	T	3.3	8.8	20.0	5.0	0.0	37.1

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	T	0.6	3.4	8.1	8.6	4.3	0.8	25.8
1992-1993	0.0	0.0	2.1	2.3	10.9	13.3	0.0	28.6
1991-1992	0.0	0.0	2.0	2.3	1.5	7.6	T	13.4
1990-1991	0.0	0.0	4.0	3.6	4.3	1.9	0.0	13.8
1989-1990	0.0	7.6	0.2	2.0	2.0	4.2	3.0	19.0
1988-1989	0.0	0.0	10.4	4.4	1.2	3.0	T	19.0
1987-1988	0.0	1.1	4.2	10.7	0.1	3.4	0.0	19.5
1986-1987	0.0	T	3.4	8.8	8.6	1.7	0.0	22.5
1985-1986	0.0	T	2.1	2.6	10.4	0.1	T	15.2
1984-1985	0.0	T	4.7	13.5	8.7	T	T	26.9
1983-1984	0.0	T	2.6	11.9	T	13.0	0.0	27.5
1982-1983	0.0	0.0	3.2	1.5	26.1	T	1.1	31.9
1981-1982	0.0	0.0	1.0	18.1	0.3	T	16.0	35.4
1980-1981	0.0	T	0.5	13.2	T	7.1	0.0	20.8
1979-1980	T	0.0	1.5	4.0	1.5	2.0	0.0	9.0
1978-1979	0.0	4.0	T	6.9	17.2	T	T	28.1
1977-1978	0.0	0.8	0.2	27.7	28.9	10.4	T	68.0
1976-1977	0.0	T	6.2	11.2	6.6	4.0	0.0	28.0
1975-1976	0.0	T	11.0	7.8	7.5	3.9	0.0	30.2
1974-1975	0.0	0.5	T	1.8	11.0	1.2	T	14.5
1973-1974	0.0	0.0	T	9.0	17.0	8.0	T	34.0
1972-1973	T	0.0	T	1.5	3.0	T	T	4.5
1971-1972	0.0	T	T	2.1	12.5	1.0	T	15.6
1970-1971	0.0	0.0	2.1	11.3	2.0	1.0	2.5	18.9
1969-1970	0.0	T	12.0	7.0	7.0	1.0	T	27.0
1968-1969	0.0	T	3.0	T	19.5	11.0	0.0	33.5
1967-1968	0.0	2.5	5.0	9.1	3.0	3.0	0.0	22.6
1966-1967	0.0	0.0	8.6	1.0	19.5	21.7	T	50.8
1965-1966	0.0	0.0	T	12.1	3.6	0.0	0.0	15.7
1964-1965	0.0	0.0	2.0	24.6	7.4	4.5	1.0	39.5
1963-1964	0.0	T	11.0	11.7	16.0	1.0	0.0	39.7

[coastalplainsnowman]

7 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

It's funny how many people seem to miss that point completely. We keep raising the bar against the averages by recalculating every ten years.

A better comparison would be to compare the current monthly average temperatures against the average temperature from 1870-1979.  I use that period because the noticeable increases seem to accelerate in the 1980's.

If you use those instead of the NEW 1991-2020 averages this would just be another above normal month. December 2024 would also be above normal.

But it feels like winter.  Ground's been covered a decent amount of time with a bit of snow, there was snow around twice in December, ground's been frozen at times, back bays have some ice. I think that's all folks are really saying.  The fact that it's warm relative to the previous 30 year averages, or vs the *1870s* when only a few of us were around, may be true.  But it still feels like winter, and much better than what we've dealt with much of the last few years.  That's all.

Separately - I don't see how we square 'throw in the towel forever' with the fact that we've seen it snow pretty nicely to our *south* a few times this year alone.  As long as that's still happening, I have to think the ingredients are still around for us to retain our usual small chance of a nice storm or two this winter.