January 2025

[bluewave]

The Euro and EPS have been running too cold at times like today. Remember it had highs staying under 32° today. Several spots made it into the mid to upper 30s.

 

 

 

 

 

[FPizz]

32/19 split here, max wind gust on my station was 39.  Forecast was 32

[donsutherland1]

Today was fair, very windy, and continued cold, although the mercury topped out at 33° in Central Park. Clouds could incrase tomorrow afternoon or evening as a storm passes well south and east of the region. There could be some snow flurries or snow showers tomorrow night into Saturday. Any accumulations will be small.

Before then, the storm has the potential to bring Atlanta a minor accumulation of snow on Friday into Saturday. The last time Atlanta experienced a measurable snowfall was December 26, 2022 when 0.1" snow fell. In most cases, Atlanta's snowfalls don't result in much snowfall in the New York City area. For example, since 1950, Atlanta has seen 17 January snowstorms of 1" or more. In 12 (71%) of those cases, New York City saw less than 0.5" of snow, including 8 (47%) cases with no measurable snowfall.

An extended period of generally below normal temperatures is underway in the New York City area. Although this cold regime will likely extend through at least the first three weeks of January, the kind of severe cold that produces minimum temperatures below 10° in the Philadelphia to New York City areas is unlikely during that period. The cold could still peak with readings dropping into the teens and several subfreezing highs.

The third week of January will likely feature a continuation of widespread cold anomalies in much of the eastern half of the CONUS and Canada south of the Hudson and James Bays. Those anomalies will likely result more from the prolonged nature of the cold than its severity. However, notable exceptions could be areas with fresh snow cover that experience strong radiational cooling. Moderation is possible during the closing week of the month.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around January 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.02°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.63°C. La Niña conditions are underway and will likely persist into the start of spring.

The SOI was -4.75 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.784 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 80% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 30.5° (3.2° below normal).

 

[EastonSN+]

39 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

thanks for clarifying Walt....at least the cold will extend a little bit beyond the end of January.

 

I don't trust the weeklies whatsoever at that range, it's a coin toss whether we reload into the same type of pattern we have now or we default into a typical Nina pattern.

[LibertyBell]

28 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Today was fair, very windy, and continued cold, although the mercury topped out at 33° in Central Park. Clouds could incrase tomorrow afternoon or evening as a storm passes well south and east of the region. There could be some snow flurries or snow showers tomorrow night into Saturday. Any accumulations will be small.

Before then, the storm has the potential to bring Atlanta a minor accumulation of snow on Friday into Saturday. The last time Atlanta experienced a measurable snowfall was December 26, 2022 when 0.1" snow fell. In most cases, Atlanta's snowfalls don't result in much snowfall in the New York City area. For example, since 1950, Atlanta has seen 17 January snowstorms of 1" or more. In 12 (71%) of those cases, New York City saw less than 0.5" of snow, including 8 (47%) cases with no measurable snowfall.

An extended period of generally below normal temperatures is underway in the New York City area. Although this cold regime will likely extend through at least the first three weeks of January, the kind of severe cold that produces minimum temperatures below 10° in the Philadelphia to New York City areas is unlikely during that period. The cold could still peak with readings dropping into the teens and several subfreezing highs.

The third week of January will likely feature a continuation of widespread cold anomalies in much of the eastern half of the CONUS and Canada south of the Hudson and James Bays. Those anomalies will likely result more from the prolonged nature of the cold than its severity. However, notable exceptions could be areas with fresh snow cover that experience strong radiational cooling. Moderation is possible during the closing week of the month.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around January 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.02°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.63°C. La Niña conditions are underway and will likely persist into the start of spring.

The SOI was -4.75 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.784 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 80% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 30.5° (3.2° below normal).

 

wow you raised the January mean prediction from 30.3 to 30.5 Don!

[wdrag]

I'm in agreement with doubters about the weeklies beyond week two and also the cold bias. Added the Pivotal EPS weekly means FEB 3-17. They are warmer than normal but not ANOMALOUSLY WARM. 

Minor good news... the EPS week 2-3 courtesy of Pivotal shows a tendency for above normal snowfall see in our area.  That didnt say KU..just a decent chance we get some normal snowfall within a two week period sometime between January 20ish and Feb 3.  This latter will factor into a thread, whenever I can see it having a better chance of verifying on LI.  Right now, am cautious but I see more snow in our future.  Take this for whatever it is worth. 

 

[Rjay]

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

Do I have it wrong?

No

1 hour ago, cleetussnow said:

The dates ranges are out of sync

Weatherbell is messing with their temperature anomaly algorithm which is completely insane to me.

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

wow you raised the January mean prediction from 30.3 to 30.5 Don!

Guidance raised it. It's based purely on the guidance.

[wdrag]

18 minutes ago, Rjay said:

No

Weatherbell is messing with their temperature anomaly algorithm which is completely insane to me.

I dropped weather bell many years ago... the graphics looked nice but other stuff got me down. Pivotal has been good for all of us...maybe their graphics are not quite as shiny but I like what they produce and also how they respond to inquiries. 

I am hopeful everyone is in agreement that odds,  according to the EPS show a possibly warmer than normal week 4-5 both in the Pivotal and the ECMWF.int presentations. 

Fingers crossed the EC, RGEM, SREF and BOM are wrong about meager accumulation or Trace on Saturday.

[NorthShoreWx]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

January 2022 was pretty impressive on the back bays but nothing like February 2015 on our local waterways.

https://tomsriver.shorebeat.com/2022/02/fire-and-ice-blazing-sunset-blankets-a-frozen-barnegat-bay-video-gallery/

 

 

Long Island Sound / Smithtown Bay, February 2015

[wdrag]

NAEFS is tightening up to 1/19-20 event with 4" snowfall potential where all snow (no sleet/ice/rain).  Looks to me like rain or ice could edge all the way into nw NJ/se NYS/s CT for a time in this two day period but am also pretty sure there should  be some snow on the front and back end but will it be meaningful for Li?  My guess is yes, but what is meaningful to each of us?  

That's the direction I'm going in.  Want to check tomorrow morning to see if this minor or moderate impact event still looks decent for our subforum.  

There will be more snow possibilities behind this in January but at the forefront (imo) for starting a probable tracking thread in the next day or two, is the 19th-20th. Tracking does not mean this will satisfy our snow thirst... just allow us to direct comments from the January thread to a probable event thread. 

For fun I added the 12z/9 NAEFS probability of more than 10MM of qpf for this period (0.4" melted).  See the graphic-click and check the legend. 50% or greater...  nice start. Hope it holds.   NAEFS is made up GEFS and CMCE.  IMPERFECT but an idea that the storm track, barring a closed low at 5H developing down into the Great Lakes, should be just to our south.  I'm VERY confident of an event = 90%,  just not confident how much of it can be snow.    CPC on the right track with a slight risk of heavy snow into e NYS and ne PA... just not us. 

Have a good night. 

[ForestHillWx]

23 here now, was 17 when I left the house this morning. Seems cold out this way…

[Allsnow]

 

[North and West]

 

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[Tatamy]

1 hour ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Long Island Sound / Smithtown Bay, February 2015

The last time that I am aware of significant icing on LI Sound other than that noted above was in February 1979 in the week prior to PD 1.  I was able to walk several hundred yards out onto the ice at Sunken Meadow at that time.