January 2025

[Stormlover74]

Next weekend continues to show up as a potential light to moderate event. Cmc has rain, Gfs snow

[bluewave]

17 hours ago, JerseyWx said:

But I have to say, it's at least a lot colder than it's been since the 20's era began.  We're not far off from 2015 either.

To me, I don't agree with the if it's not snowing it may as well be warm sentiment.  I can't speak for the city and surrounding areas, but we've had a lot of mornings in the teens here, and I've taken some cold hikes so far, including Sunday which was brutal with the wind.  Maybe not a lot to show for it, but it feels like winter at least.  Look how bad 2023 was.

The cold departures so far in January are being driven by the cooler maxes rather than the minimums. The strong winds blowing across the warm lakes along with the clouds are keeping the minimum temperatures up. This is why even interior spots around our area have been struggling to get into the single digits like they often do during colder patterns in early January. 

 

Time Series Summary for SUSSEX AIRPORT, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending January 1-8 minimum temperature 

2025-01-08	17	1
2024-01-08	18	0
2023-01-08	25	0
2022-01-08	12	0
2021-01-08	17	0
2020-01-08	22	0
2019-01-08	20	0
2018-01-08	-4	2
2017-01-08	13	0
2016-01-08	4	0
2015-01-08	2	0
2014-01-08	-9	0
2013-01-08	8	0
2012-01-08	9	0
2011-01-08	0	0

[NEG NAO]

25 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Next weekend continues to show up as a potential light to moderate event. Cmc has rain, Gfs snow

the model solutions change on every model run - still 9 + days away out of forecasting range.......

[Allsnow]

28 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Next weekend continues to show up as a potential light to moderate event. Cmc has rain, Gfs snow

Finally looks active with cold near by. 
 

but not all those storms will be snow 

[Stormlover74]

5 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

the model solutions change on every model run - still 9 + days away out of forecasting range.......

Cool

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Finally looks active with cold near by. 
 

but not all those storms will be snow 

Yeah just a time period to keep an eye on

[Cfa]

Odd seeing NYC warmer than DC everyday on a 10-day forecast.

[Volcanic Winter]

22 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The cold departures so far in January are being driven by the cooler maxes rather than the minimums. The strong winds blowing across the warm lakes along with the clouds are keeping the minimum temperatures up. This is why even interior spots around our area have been struggling to get into the single digits like they often do during colder patterns in early January. 

 

Time Series Summary for SUSSEX AIRPORT, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending January 1-8 minimum temperature 

2025-01-08	17	1
2024-01-08	18	0
2023-01-08	25	0
2022-01-08	12	0
2021-01-08	17	0
2020-01-08	22	0
2019-01-08	20	0
2018-01-08	-4	2
2017-01-08	13	0
2016-01-08	4	0
2015-01-08	2	0
2014-01-08	-9	0
2013-01-08	8	0
2012-01-08	9	0
2011-01-08	0	0

Been noticing the minimums are not really "impressive" despite the continued cold. I'm not talking about subjective "what feels cold," just statistical. My average low is 22F right now, and I've not even been hitting that consistently despite the continued cold.

It's absolutely the maximums driving this outbreak, as the high temperatures are certainly below normal. With this kind of airmass and this level of persistence, I'd of otherwise been expecting more nights in the low teens. We've had a couple now, especially with the 1-2 inch snowcover that's rapidly receding (sublimating?).

Just interesting.

[brooklynwx99]

13 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Finally looks active with cold near by. 
 

but not all those storms will be snow 

i think everyone would take a front end thump to rain at this point. certainly possible with the -EPO pattern. will be lots of cold nearby

[North and West]

Would be neat to see an Inauguration Day storm for the historical aspect of it, since they’re only every four years and D.C. has wild winter swings.


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[Volcanic Winter]

4 minutes ago, Cfa said:

Odd seeing NYC warmer than DC everyday on a 10-day forecast.

Yup, I've been panning around temperatures on my radar apps the past few days. Much of the northeast is "milder" than the mid atlantic, the further west you go the sharper the cold. Definitely interesting.

[psv88]

7 minutes ago, North and West said:

Would be neat to see an Inauguration Day storm for the historical aspect of it, since they’re only every four years and D.C. has wild winter swings.


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No comment

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Is there any useful visualization from overlaying the tracks of multiple endpoints?

There can be differences in the trajectory e.g., Washington, DC has a direct shot of Arctic air. I'm not sure if the tool allows the use of multiple endpoints.

[North and West]

No comment

Nothing about the people involved, more about the event itself.


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[North and West]

No comment

Every Inauguration, you seemingly hear about the Kennedy snowstorm or the cold at Reagan’s in 1985. Just a neat snapshot in time.


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[bluewave]

16 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Been noticing the minimums are not really "impressive" despite the continued cold. I'm not talking about subjective "what feels cold," just statistical. My average low is 22F right now, and I've not even been hitting that consistently despite the continued cold.

It's absolutely the maximums driving this outbreak, as the high temperatures are certainly below normal. With this kind of airmass and this level of persistence, I'd of otherwise been expecting more nights in the low teens. We've had a couple now, especially with the 1-2 inch snowcover that's rapidly receding (sublimating?).

Just interesting.

Yeah, the minimum departure is currently running +8.4 up in Caribou through the 8th. My guess is it’s a function of how warm Canada has been around Hudson Bay with the delayed freeze-up. Plus the lower pressures, very strong winds, and clouds limiting the overnight low potential. 
 

Climatological Data for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx) - January 2025
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Sum	187	107	-	-	371	0	1.03	8.0	-
Average	23.4	13.4	18.4	4.8	-	-	-	-	2.4
Normal	22.2	5.0	13.6	-	412	0	0.80	6.6
2025-01-01	39	31	35.0	20.5	30	0	0.47	0.2	0
2025-01-02	34	24	29.0	14.8	36	0	0.19	2.2	1
2025-01-03	24	13	18.5	4.6	46	0	0.07	1.5	3
2025-01-04	13	3	8.0	-5.7	57	0	0.01	0.2	3
2025-01-05	10	-3	3.5	-9.9	61	0	T	T	3
2025-01-06	18	7	12.5	-0.7	52	0	T	T	3
2025-01-07	25	15	20.0	7.1	45	0	0.06	0.8	3
2025-01-08	24	17	20.5	7.8	44	0	0.23	3.1	3
2025-01-09	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
2025-01-10	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
2025-01-11	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
2025-01-12	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
2025-01-13	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
2025-01-14	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
2025-01-15	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
2025-01-16	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
2025-01-17	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
2025-01-18	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
2025-01-19	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
2025-01-20	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
2025-01-21	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
2025-01-22	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
2025-01-23	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
2025-01-24	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
2025-01-25	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
2025-01-26	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
2025-01-27	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
2025-01-28	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
2025-01-29	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
2025-01-30	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
2025-01-31	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M

[donsutherland1]

15 minutes ago, North and West said:

Would be neat to see an Inauguration Day storm for the historical aspect of it, since they’re only every four years and D.C. has wild winter swings.


.

For reference: https://www.weather.gov/lwx/events_Inauguration

[North and West]

For reference: https://www.weather.gov/lwx/events_Inauguration

tyvm!


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[Volcanic Winter]

The wind is also brutal today here. Just had a shutter come down off a bedroom window. My Tempest isn’t in a great spot to record wind properly and tends to underrate it, but I would imagine it was at least a couple good 40-50mph gusts. 

[snowman19]

43 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i think everyone would take a front end thump to rain at this point. certainly possible with the -EPO pattern. will be lots of cold nearby

Just said it before in the Niña thread, but the 1/18 - 1/22 period looks cutter-ish, inland runner-ish to me. Blocking is gone. Ridge is completely off the west coast, +NAO/+AO and a WAR signature is showing up

[brooklynwx99]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Just said it before in the Niña thread, but the 1/18 - 1/22 period looks cutter-ish, inland runner-ish to me. Blocking is gone. Ridge is completely off the west coast, +NAO/+AO and a WAR signature is showing up

you always risk cutters with that kind of pattern in the same way you risk suppression in blocking patterns. still doesn't take away the cold and active look. 2013-14, which this pattern reminds me of, also had cutters. usually those help to push the baroclinic zone SE for moisture to ride along

[Picard]

18 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

The wind is also brutal today here. Just had a shutter come down off a bedroom window. My Tempest isn’t in a great spot to record wind properly and tends to underrate it, but I would imagine it was at least a couple good 40-50mph gusts. 

This "cold outbreak" would not be impressive, historically speaking, if it wasn't for the persistent, brutal wind keeping wind chills in the single digits and low teens.
Our campus is closed for the 2nd day this week due to a power outage.  Earlier today, I actually couldn't close my truck door because of a brutal wind gust.  All I could do was hang on.  
Calmer air can't come fast enough.  I'm sure California would agree.

[NEG NAO]

3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

you always risk cutters with that kind of pattern in the same way you risk suppression in blocking patterns. still doesn't take away the cold and active look. 2013-14, which this pattern reminds me of, also had cutters

so you agree we are going into a cutter pattern ? Consider the source you responded too- look at the guidance....

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

so you agree we are going into a cutter pattern ? Consider the source you responded too- look at the guidance....

no, calling it a cutter pattern is reductive and doesn't really tell you anything. my point is that the pattern leaves you open to them in the same way that a -NAO pattern leaves you open to suppression. we could see a cutter, just as other favorable patterns like 2013-14 produced. however, often times these cutters in these kinds of patterns only serve to tamp down the baroclinic zone such that a second wave can slide across the Arctic boundary

the EPS, for example, is not what I would consider a "cutter pattern." there is lots of TPV vorticity sitting over SE Canada, tons of cold air in the flow, and no SE ridge... it's displaced more over the Caribbean and would just prevent suppression. of course you can get a cutter here, but storms can easily just slide to the south with Arctic air over the top. looks active with overrunning as the main storm track

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

no, calling it a cutter pattern is reductive and doesn't really tell you anything. my point is that the pattern leaves you open to them in the same way that a -NAO pattern leaves you open to suppression. we could see a cutter, just as other favorable patterns like 2013-14 produced. however, often times these cutters in these kinds of patterns only serve to tamp down the baroclinic zone such that a second wave can slide across the Arctic boundary

the EPS, for example, is not what I would consider a "cutter pattern." there is lots of TPV vorticity sitting over SE Canada, tons of cold air in the flow, and no SE ridge... it's displaced more over the Caribbean and would just prevent suppression. of course you can get a cutter here, but storms can easily just slide to the south with Arctic air over the top. looks active with overrunning as the main storm track

This isn't a cutter at all. I know this is way out .

[NorthShoreWx]

51 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

There can be differences in the trajectory e.g., Washington, DC has a direct shot of Arctic air. I'm not sure if the tool allows the use of multiple endpoints.

Thanks.  It's a cool graphic that I hadn't seen before.  That's a good scenario that you mentioned with the DC example.  It would probably be interesting this month with the greatest departures to the SW.

[Volcanic Winter]

I don’t really ever recall a winter with locked in favorable storm tracks, there’s always variation. I don’t know the meteorological details as well as many of you, but that doesn’t strike me as too big a problem. We’ll likely have some rain storms with unfavorable tracks, absolutely. Hopefully we still get some chances. I don’t want to be a broken record but I truly believe that believing in the cold is warranted; as long as we’re not staring down protracted positive high temp departures, I think we’re in the game with a bit of luck (nod to @Dark Star). 

Nothing we say impacts what happens, so we do unfortunately have to rely on a bit of hope. Something I’m not well accustomed to as I try to keep a more scientific mindset, but this is the intersection of science and desire / preference / personal enjoyment, etc. 

[the_other_guy]

1 hour ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Yup, I've been panning around temperatures on my radar apps the past few days. Much of the northeast is "milder" than the mid atlantic, the further west you go the sharper the cold. Definitely interesting.

Colder in ATL this morning than JFK. although that isn’t unusual on clear nights with cool airmasses.

 

Usually, you see it more for Raleigh and Charlotte. At Atlanta is pretty far south, but they do have the elevation.

[jm1220]

27 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

I don’t really ever recall a winter with locked in favorable storm tracks, there’s always variation. I don’t know the meteorological details as well as many of you, but that doesn’t strike me as too big a problem. We’ll likely have some rain storms with unfavorable tracks, absolutely. Hopefully we still get some chances. I don’t want to be a broken record but I truly believe that believing in the cold is warranted; as long as we’re not staring down protracted positive high temp departures, I think we’re in the game with a bit of luck (nod to @Dark Star). 

Nothing we say impacts what happens, so we do unfortunately have to rely on a bit of hope. Something I’m not well accustomed to as I try to keep a more scientific mindset, but this is the intersection of science and desire / preference / personal enjoyment, etc. 

Eventually something has to happen to get us out of this rut though. Any winter that ended favorably like 13-14 had ways to make significant snow events here happen. So far we’ve totally struck out other than the lucky inverted trough setup before Christmas, and this winter has that flavor of just striking out when we’re cold enough but it’s an immediate rainy cutter when the SE ridge returns. Sure that can change but it’s clear this pattern now where it’s cold enough won’t do it. Gradient patterns where it’s cold just to our N give us a chance, but could easily just be SWFEs that are just too warm here but are cold enough for I-90 to cash in. Bottom line is I’m not optimistic until we get a threat within 72 hours that any number of turds in the punchbowl won’t happen again and ruin it for us. 

[Volcanic Winter]

12 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Eventually something has to happen to get us out of this rut though. Any winter that ended favorably like 13-14 had ways to make significant snow events here happen. So far we’ve totally struck out other than the lucky inverted trough setup before Christmas, and this winter has that flavor of just striking out when we’re cold enough but it’s an immediate rainy cutter when the SE ridge returns. Sure that can change but it’s clear this pattern now where it’s cold enough won’t do it. Gradient patterns where it’s cold just to our N give us a chance, but could easily just be SWFEs that are just too warm here but are cold enough for I-90 to cash in. Bottom line is I’m not optimistic until we get a threat within 72 hours that any number of turds in the punchbowl won’t happen again and ruin it for us. 

I agree with you, it’s undoubtedly a bad stretch. I’d just rather roll the dice and see how we do - after a complete DJFM period - starting off with a pattern like this relative to the more typical crap we’ve seen since 2019 or so. I’m fully onboard with the Pac oceanic heatwaves and the downstream changes that’s caused which is interfering with our winter patterns, as @bluewave has posted about ad nauseum. But, and please correct me if this is false, I don’t think we’ve seen an extended pattern yet quite like the one we’re in since the mid 2010’s. I’d like to see how we end up failing with this deck of cards in this new era, for lack of a better way to phrase It . We’ve seen the extreme suppressive look so far, guys I even got relatively skunked on this last one, officially TR received 2.1 inches but in my yard it’s really closer To 1.5 if I’m being honest. I’m tucked in right by Manchester, so idk - it was kind of an odd event / non event here. Seemed about the same as my in laws in Milltown, where we were yesterday. 

Originally until those final southward shifts, I was supposed to be closer to a 3-6 ballpark. Meh. , same boat as the rest of you, really. Those final southward shifts really hurt, but in a silver lining sense I’m happy flakes flew for much of the metro. Infinitely better than zero, which is now my expectation Saturday. 

If we’re going to fail, let’s at least fail with a new look on an old clown show .