January 2025

[Stormlover74]

Wind advisory issued for most of us. Gusts to 50 tomorrow 

[Eduardo]

1 hour ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

I'm always surprised that a lot of posters here have the preference that if it's not going to snow that they prefer it to be mild.  I admit that as I get older I like the idea of the cold more in theory than in actual practice, but still I'll take the cold over mild in January and February, whether its accompanied by snow or not.  This goes double for the Thanksgiving to New Year's timeframe.  Love the idea of seeing the lakes freeze over, and walking on a frozen lawn.  Why?  Who knows.  But I think part of it is that surprise 60s once March gets here feel 10x better when they follow a cold winter.  When the winter is full of damp 55s, March 60s don't hit the same way.  Ok, I could have started this thing Dear Diary lol but anyway that's my take.

 

I’ll second this! My wife thinks I’m a total nutjob but—while I’d definitely prefer it be accompanied by snow—I absolutely love any and all cold during this time of year.  To me, there’s something invigorating about it and, yes, it makes the weather ‘breaking’ in the spring all the more satisfying.

[ForestHillWx]

Seasons in seasons as DIT claims. I have no problem with the cold, and wouldn’t mind seeing records. 

I was simply noting it’s brutal, and I’m about to attend a site inspection this morning that’ll take at least 3 hours standing outdoors. Time to bundle up. 

[bluewave]

12 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

33.0 average for the first 7 days of January would have been above average a couple of decades ago. My how things have changed and how we've forgotten. 

Yeah, the 7 station average for January so far would be a little above average in 81-10 normals. We are currently running -0.6 in 91-20 averages. The warmth in Canada has worked down into the Northeast as Caribou is +4.8 so far. Same pattern as recent years with the coldest departures going to our west and south.
 

EWR….-0.6

NYC….-2.4

JFK…..+0.5

LGA…..-2.2

HPN….+1.0

BDR….-0.4

ISP……-0.1

 

[LibertyBell]

11 hours ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

Check this out.  I get the gist of it but not well enough to articulate it (even though most here would probably consider this to be written at a first grade reading level), so here's the link:  

BTW, I bet if you ask 100 people on the street on what day is the latest sunrise and earliest sunset, 99 out of 100 will say the first day of winter.

Thanks!  I also read somewhere that there are two latitudes on the earth where the longest and shortest days are actually on the equinoxes!  From what I read, the two latitudes where this happens are something like +1.5 degrees (north latitude) and -2.0 degrees (south latitude).... not sure why these are asymmetric too, but I think it might also have something to do with the earth's tilt.

 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the 7 station average for January so far would be a little above average in 81-10 normals. We are currently running -0.6 in 91-20 averages. The warmth in Canada has worked down into the Northeast as Caribou is +4.8 so far. Same pattern as recent years with the coldest departures going to our west and south.
 

EWR….-0.6

NYC….-2.4

JFK…..+0.5

LGA…..-2.2

HPN….+1.0

BDR….-0.4

ISP……-0.1

 

Chris, why don't we use a fixed seasonal average instead of updating it every 10 years?  A fixed seasonal average would show the true nature of the warming.  For example, I think we should base our averages off of the 1951-1980 30 year period.

 

 

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Wind advisory issued for most of us. Gusts to 50 tomorrow 

I wonder if today will be the windiest of the three days?

Best weather of the entire week will be on Friday-- low 40s and no wind!

[Dark Star]

6 hours ago, Eduardo said:

I’ll second this! My wife thinks I’m a total nutjob but—while I’d definitely prefer it be accompanied by snow—I absolutely love any and all cold during this time of year.  To me, there’s something invigorating about it and, yes, it makes the weather ‘breaking’ in the spring all the more satisfying.

Actually saw kids playing hockey on a local pond in Linden today!  Unheard of over the last 30 years or so (sort of).  Can't have snow without a cold air source.  That's why I have to keep posting my snow triangle (for the NYC metro area)...

[steve392]

Winds were fierce driving into work.  Tossing my truck around with the gusts.  21 in mahwah right now feels like 3

[Dark Star]

23 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Chris, why don't we use a fixed seasonal average instead of updating it every 10 years?  A fixed seasonal average would show the true nature of the warming.  For example, I think we should base our averages off of the 1951-1980 30 year period.

 

 

I debated with one poster stating that it is not really that cold, more like "Seasonable", but it is the winds making the wind chill effect unbearable.  

[Dan76]

Would of been nice to have a foot of snow on the ground with all this wind.

[wdrag]

My 2c perceptions based on ensemble modeling.

Northeast USA next Tuesday-Wednesday: Wind driven reinforcing cold shot. 

Around Thursday January 16 PA-NJ-MD-DE-CT-MA-LI: areas of snow or snow showers should dust portions of this area with 1/4-1" of snow. UNCERTAIN target area but the snow could briefly be a hazard since it will be very cold again with frozen surfaces! 

 

Late Saturday January 18-early Wednesday the 22nd: Probably one or maybe two eventual threads but would like to isolate to a short time frame, just as this current Jan 6-11 period split into two threads:  mainly interior northeast USA along or just northwest of Interstate 95 from VA-DC to Boston up through NYS and the Great Lakes. Worthy of monitoring for eventual adjustment of travel plans. Either a "potentially" large moderate to high impact event or two separate minor events including NYC-LI. It probably will be snow or ice mix in the northeast except along I95 where maybe more of a wintry mix briefly to rain? Another shot of very cold air should follow around the 22nd. 

 

Will check back tomorrow and see where all this is at. Enjoy a seasonably cold wintry day exacerbated by the well in advance modeling of 40-60 MPH strong wind gusts. 

 

 

 

[MJO812]

24 outside. This is the weather I love. I just wish we had a snowpack.

[donsutherland1]

43 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Chris, why don't we use a fixed seasonal average instead of updating it every 10 years?  A fixed seasonal average would show the true nature of the warming.  For example, I think we should base our averages off of the 1951-1980 30 year period.

 

 

There is a fixed baseline for the long-term climate. For example, GISS uses 1951-80. NOAA uses 1901-99.

The climate "normals" serve a different purpose. Their purpose is to convey information what the present climate of a location is like. That's why the climate normals are updated every 10 years (not just in the U.S., but worldwide).

[forkyfork]

none of the other radars i look at break down this often 

679
NOUS61 KPHI 090052
FTMDIX
Message Date: Jan 09 2025 00:52:16

THE KDIX RADAR HAS SUFFERED A MECHANICAL FAILURE. TECHNICIANS WILL INVESTIGATE T
HE ISSUE ON THURSDAY. STAARMANN

[LibertyBell]

Just now, forkyfork said:

none of the other radars i look at break down this often 

679
NOUS61 KPHI 090052
FTMDIX
Message Date: Jan 09 2025 00:52:16

THE KDIX RADAR HAS SUFFERED A MECHANICAL FAILURE. TECHNICIANS WILL INVESTIGATE T
HE ISSUE ON THURSDAY. STAARMANN

Who is Staarmann (is that even a real name lol)?

 

[donsutherland1]

The source region of today's air mass:

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The source region of today's air mass:

The delayed freeze-up on Hudson Bay and warmer lakes really moderating the cold.

https://sites.google.com/view/arctic-sea-ice/home/nsidc-arctic

 

[SACRUS]

24 / 6 off a low of 18 here.   Winds whipping.  Sat miss opens way to a mainly dry and overall colder next 7 days.  Beyond there the next system to watch in the 19 - 21 period could yield the proverbial kick in the gut, with rain - wait out there to tell.   Overnight data was a bit less intense with the cold in the post Jan 21 period, cold with the strongest north and west.  

 

[EastonSN+]

4 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said:

@Patrick-02540

Besides the 5 climo sites, take those numbers with a grain of salt as most are missing many days over 25 years. Which is understandable. I tried to only include reports that are missing <1000 days, which is actually not that much over 9,125 days, about 10%. I also have the 1981-2010 and 1990-2020 Northeast maps from the NWS on our site as well.

https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/average-seasonal-snowfall

Wanted to share with this audience as the four seasons poster is amazing and this website is amazing. It's new england-based but if you click on the link you will see how the tri-state area increase snowfall over the 2 30 or periods (amazing how the snowfall averaged increased so much).

Thanks as always 4 seasons.

https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/average-seasonal-snowfall

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 67 (1998)
NYC: 64 (2008)
LGA: 66 (2008)
JFK: 65 (2008)


Lows:

EWR: 1 (1968)
NYC: -1 (1968)
LGA: 1 (1968)
JFK: 0 (1968)  cold week

Historical:

 

1875 - The temperature at Cheyenne, WY, dipped to an all-time record cold reading of -38 degrees. (The Weather Channel)

1880: A rapidly deepening low-pressure system produced powerful winds along the Pacific Northwest coast. While wind measurements were limited, there were widespread reports of wind damage. 

1888 - Severe cold gripped much of the western U.S. At Portland OR the Columbia River was frozen for two weeks, and in southern California temperatures dipped below freezing in some of the citrus growing areas. (David Ludlum)

1976 - Lake effect snow squalls buried the town of Adams NY under 68 inches of snow. (David Ludlum)

1987 - A winter storm spread heavy snow from the Central Plains into the Great Lakes Region. Heavier totals included 9 inches at Sun City KS, 7 inches at Columbia MO, 11 inches at Terre Haute IN, and up to 10 inches in the southern suburbs of Chicago IL. (National Weather Summary) ( Storm Data)

1988 - A storm in the northeastern U.S. produced ten inches of snow at Boston MA, and 14 inches at Worcester MA. A winter storm in the northwestern U.S. produced a foot of snow in three hours at McCall ID. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Strong winds prevailed along the eastern slopes of the Rockies in Colorado. Winds gusted to 113 mph at the Air Force Academy near Colorado Springs, and reached 115 mph at Boulder. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - A third storm in four days hit the Pacific Northwest. Winds in Oregon gusted above 100 mph at Netarts and at Oceanside. Up to 8.16 inches of rain was reported around Seaside OR, and the total of 4.53 inches of rain at Astoria OR was a record for the date. Twelve cities in the western U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. The high of 70 degrees at Cedar City UT was a record for January. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

2015: The halo picture below was taken by Texan Joshua Thomas in Red River, New Mexico. 

 

[SACRUS]

On 1/8/2025 at 8:22 AM, SACRUS said:

 

Jan 4

EWR: 36 / 28 (-2)
NYC: 33 / 28 (-4)
LGA: 34 / 29 (-4)
JFK: 37 / 30 (0 E)

 

--------------------------------------------------

Jan 5:

EWR: 36 / 28 (-2)
NYC: 33 / 28 (-4)
LGA: 34 / 28 (-4)
JFK: 37 / 29 (-1)

-

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Jan 6:

EWR:   31 / 22 (-6)
NYC: 30 / 22 (-8)
LGA:  33 / 23 (-7)
JFK: 33 / 24 (-5)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Jan 7

EWR: 35 / 19 (-6)
NYC: 33 / 19 (-8)
LGA: 34 / 20 (-8)
JFK: 36 / 20 (-6)

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Cold period daily dep:

 

Jan 4

EWR: 36 / 28 (-2)
NYC: 33 / 28 (-4)
LGA: 34 / 29 (-4)
JFK: 37 / 30 (0 E)

 

--------------------------------------------------

Jan 5:

EWR: 36 / 28 (-2)
NYC: 33 / 28 (-4)
LGA: 34 / 28 (-4)
JFK: 37 / 29 (-1)

-

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Jan 6:

EWR:   31 / 22 (-6)
NYC: 30 / 22 (-8)
LGA:  33 / 23 (-7)
JFK: 33 / 24 (-5)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Jan 7

EWR: 35 / 19 (-6)
NYC: 33 / 19 (-8)
LGA: 34 / 20 (-8)
JFK: 36 / 20 (-6)

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Jan 8

EWR: 32 / 22 (-6)
NYC: 30 / 23 (-7)
LGA: 31 / 24 (-7)
JFK: 33 / 24 (-4)

----------------------------

 

May get to or above normal Fri (10)

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the 7 station average for January so far would be a little above average in 81-10 normals. We are currently running -0.6 in 91-20 averages. The warmth in Canada has worked down into the Northeast as Caribou is +4.8 so far. Same pattern as recent years with the coldest departures going to our west and south.
 

EWR….-0.6

NYC….-2.4

JFK…..+0.5

LGA…..-2.2

HPN….+1.0

BDR….-0.4

ISP……-0.1

 

Looks like we are heading to phase 3 high amplitude. 

If I am not mistaken, while not conducive to snowfall in February this phase can work well in March, assuming it's fairly static.

[SACRUS]

 

Gusting to 32 here


JFK: 44
LGA: 41
EWR: 35 

[bluewave]

38 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Looks like we are heading to phase 3 high amplitude. 

If I am not mistaken, while not conducive to snowfall in February this phase can work well in March, assuming it's fairly static.

I am hoping NYC can find a way to sneak in a 4”+ event during the PNA transition being forecast for later January. Maybe some type of overrunning once the Southeast Ridge starts flexing?  But no guarantees with the way things have been going. Would want to see something within 120 hrs on all 3 models to be believable. 
 
Jan 20-27

 

Jan 27 to Feb 3

 

 

[TheClimateChanger]

46 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 67 (1998)
NYC: 64 (2008)
LGA: 66 (2008)
JFK: 65 (2008)


Lows:

EWR: 1 (1968)
NYC: -1 (1968)
LGA: 1 (1968)
JFK: 0 (1968)  cold week

Historical:

 

1875 - The temperature at Cheyenne, WY, dipped to an all-time record cold reading of -38 degrees. (The Weather Channel)

1880: A rapidly deepening low-pressure system produced powerful winds along the Pacific Northwest coast. While wind measurements were limited, there were widespread reports of wind damage. 

1888 - Severe cold gripped much of the western U.S. At Portland OR the Columbia River was frozen for two weeks, and in southern California temperatures dipped below freezing in some of the citrus growing areas. (David Ludlum)

1976 - Lake effect snow squalls buried the town of Adams NY under 68 inches of snow. (David Ludlum)

1987 - A winter storm spread heavy snow from the Central Plains into the Great Lakes Region. Heavier totals included 9 inches at Sun City KS, 7 inches at Columbia MO, 11 inches at Terre Haute IN, and up to 10 inches in the southern suburbs of Chicago IL. (National Weather Summary) ( Storm Data)

1988 - A storm in the northeastern U.S. produced ten inches of snow at Boston MA, and 14 inches at Worcester MA. A winter storm in the northwestern U.S. produced a foot of snow in three hours at McCall ID. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Strong winds prevailed along the eastern slopes of the Rockies in Colorado. Winds gusted to 113 mph at the Air Force Academy near Colorado Springs, and reached 115 mph at Boulder. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - A third storm in four days hit the Pacific Northwest. Winds in Oregon gusted above 100 mph at Netarts and at Oceanside. Up to 8.16 inches of rain was reported around Seaside OR, and the total of 4.53 inches of rain at Astoria OR was a record for the date. Twelve cities in the western U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. The high of 70 degrees at Cedar City UT was a record for January. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

2015: The halo picture below was taken by Texan Joshua Thomas in Red River, New Mexico. 

 

I was doing some research and discovered a tornado outbreak on this date in 1889. A tornado struck downtown Pittsburgh around noon, destroying a building under construction and killing 14. Later in the day, a tornado struck Reading, Pennsylvania, destroying a textile mill, killing 33 people. A tornado struck Brooklyn, New York, causing extensive damage, particularly to the Naval Yard. Tornado damage was also reported in York, Williamsport, Carlisle, and Sunbury, Pennsylvania. It appears at least 20 distinct tornadic circulations struck Pennsylvania. Additionally, the suspension bridge at Niagara Falls was felled by the winds, although I have not found evidence of this being attributed to a tornado. Based on the description, this would rival, if not exceed, the outbreak of May 31, 1985. A stark reminder that tornados can and do hit at any time of the year in this part of the world. Looking at observations from the day, high temperatures ranged from the upper 40s to mid 50s in the affected regions. With January heat waves increasingly seeing temperatures reach the 60s and even 70s in the Mid Atlantic (I believe there was a recent case where Washington, DC nearly hit 80F!), it would be interesting to see what kind of damaging tornados could be spawned with the right atmospheric ingredients.

 

[TJW014]

Gusting to 45-50 already on the barrier island

[NEG NAO]

40 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I am hoping NYC can find a way to sneak in a 4”+ event during the PNA transition being forecast for later January. Maybe some type of overrunning once the Southeast Ridge starts flexing?  But no guarantees with the way things have been going. Would want to see something within 120 hrs on all 3 models to be believable. 
 
Jan 20-27

 

Jan 27 to Feb 3

 

 

Need the ridge out west to move away from the coast into the Rockies for a more favorable snowstorm pattern along the east coast which would also favor a better chance of negatively tilted trough axis in the east......another crucial ingredient needed is a Negative NAO along with a strong anchored HP in southeast Canada....

[RU848789]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Wanted to share with this audience as the four seasons poster is amazing and this website is amazing. It's new england-based but if you click on the link you will see how the tri-state area increase snowfall over the 2 30 or periods (amazing how the snowfall averaged increased so much).

Thanks as always 4 seasons.

https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/average-seasonal-snowfall

Great stuff, especially the page with graphics for NE US winter snowfall for the last 25 years, as per the one for last year, below.  Would love it if there were a site like this for NJ/NY/PA.  

https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/northeast

[NorthShoreWx]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The source region of today's air mass:

Is there any useful visualization from overlaying the tracks of multiple endpoints?