Allsnow Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago Just now, EastonSN+ said: We lose the blocking however Eastern Canada will become very cold and we would have a great cold source to tap into. That can be a suppressive look in the pv is to far southeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago Just now, Allsnow said: That can be a suppressive look in the pv is to far southeast Agreed, also the nao is not too positive in that depiction. Something that amplifies too much would cut in that look however we could score a front end dump also. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: The best sustained h5 look we have had in years and only 3.7 of snowfall haha The Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet has just been too overpowering. So we have continued the cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks. If this was an El Niño with a STJ further south near the Baja then we would probably all be in double digit snowfall by now. It would have carved out more of a trough near the Tennessee Valley. Hopefully, we can get some relaxation of this theme later this month. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 30 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said: Oh it's cold lol and feels especially cold because we haven't been used to this in recent winters. It's the wind that's making it cold and the dry air that's creating dry skin, crappy weather. No wind and it wouldn't be bad. I also went to a funeral yesterday out in Farmingdale where it felt like 50mph winds with 25 degree temperatures at the gravesite so I was out in it for a while. Cold as a brick. We had a downed pole on route 9 yesterday that remained closed all day, snarling traffic to the NJTPK into Manhattan because the high winds precluded the linesmen from proper repairs. What a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 7 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Agreed, also the nao is not too positive in that depiction. Something that amplifies too much would cut in that look however we could score a front end dump also. I think the last good winter here was 2021; we can hope for is one or two decent events, like last year. Don't need 60 inches to make a good winter IMO. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: The Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet has just been too overpowering. So we have continued the cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks. If this was an El Niño with a STJ further south near the Baja then we would probably all be in double digit snowfall by now. It would have carved out more of a trough near the Tennessee Valley. Hopefully, we can get some relaxation of this theme later this month. Time is starting to tick down now. February has a warm risk which will probably be very hard for snowfall in nyc 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 4 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Time is starting to tick down now. February has a warm risk which will probably be very hard for snowfall in nyc At this point the definition of a good season in NYC would be going over 10” and reverting to the 2020s decadal mean around 14.2”. Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 0.0 T 2.6 4.4 7.1 0.1 T 14.2 2019-2020 0.0 0.0 2.5 2.3 T T T 4.8 2020-2021 0.0 0.0 10.5 2.1 26.0 T 0.0 38.6 2021-2022 0.0 T 0.2 15.3 2.0 0.4 0.0 17.9 2022-2023 0.0 0.0 T T 2.2 0.1 0.0 2.3 2023-2024 0.0 T T 2.3 5.2 T 0.0 7.5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: At this point the definition of a good season in NYC would be going over 10” and reverting to the decadal mean around 14.2”. Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 0.0 T 2.6 4.4 7.1 0.1 T 14.2 2019-2020 0.0 0.0 2.5 2.3 T T T 4.8 2020-2021 0.0 0.0 10.5 2.1 26.0 T 0.0 38.6 2021-2022 0.0 T 0.2 15.3 2.0 0.4 0.0 17.9 2022-2023 0.0 0.0 T T 2.2 0.1 0.0 2.3 2023-2024 0.0 T T 2.3 5.2 T 0.0 7.5 Atlanta might have more snow then Boston-orh-nyc by Saturday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 15 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Not when the storm track is into the lakes what storm tracks have you been looking at sir? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: At this point the definition of a good season in NYC would be going over 10” and reverting to the 2020s decadal mean around 14.2”. Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 0.0 T 2.6 4.4 7.1 0.1 T 14.2 2019-2020 0.0 0.0 2.5 2.3 T T T 4.8 2020-2021 0.0 0.0 10.5 2.1 26.0 T 0.0 38.6 2021-2022 0.0 T 0.2 15.3 2.0 0.4 0.0 17.9 2022-2023 0.0 0.0 T T 2.2 0.1 0.0 2.3 2023-2024 0.0 T T 2.3 5.2 T 0.0 7.5 Would be hilarious if we had a 32 inch Nemo bomb in February bringing our snowfall total to above average LOL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 4 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Time is starting to tick down now. February has a warm risk which will probably be very hard for snowfall in nyc In the last few years that’s been when we’ve been able to get snow-early Feb timeframe like in 2024, 2021. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 4 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Time is starting to tick down now. February has a warm risk which will probably be very hard for snowfall in nyc No its not. just stop. you have a cold winter on your hands. snowfall possibilities exist for the next 9 weeks in this type of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 12 minutes ago, bluewave said: The Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet has just been too overpowering. So we have continued the cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks. If this was an El Niño with a STJ further south near the Baja then we would probably all be in double digit snowfall by now. It would have carved out more of a trough near the Tennessee Valley. Hopefully, we can get some relaxation of this theme later this month. if this was el nino, we would be running +5 or more with a lot of rain and talking about it being too warm to snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 7 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: what storm tracks have you been looking at sir? I think he meant the long range look that was depicted? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago That was the issue to start December not now Hopefully we reach 80 this February If my memory serves correct, it snowed a lot very soon after that 80°. That’s the one thing that people go out of their minds about when it’s not super cold; we act like it hasn’t snowed a day or two after it’s 45° or 50°.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago Once past Saturday, aside from possible light snow showers or flurries, the next system to watch is Jan 19 / 21 period. Untill then the 7 day precip forecast is dry north of VA. Can see what could be (have been) the storm offshore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 19 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: if this was el nino, we would be running +5 or more with a lot of rain and talking about it being too warm to snow New Brunswick went +4.5 last February with 16.5” of snow due to the record STJ and borderline super El Nino in mid-February allowing the Northern Stream to relax. So unless the monthly average temperature is above 40° in January and February, it’s always cold enough to snow this year. But December and March are different as +5 patterns will usually be too warm for snow. So for us storm tracks are more important than departures in January and February. Climatological Data for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx) - February 2024Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Sum 1381 820 - - 777 0 1.90 16.0 - Average 47.6 28.3 37.9 4.5 - - - - 0.9 Normal 42.8 24.0 33.4 - 885 0 2.97 9.3 2024-02-01 40 29 34.5 3.2 30 0 0.00 0.0 0 2024-02-02 48 30 39.0 7.6 26 0 0.12 0.0 0 2024-02-03 44 32 38.0 6.5 27 0 0.08 0.0 0 2024-02-04 47 27 37.0 5.4 28 0 0.00 0.0 0 2024-02-05 49 25 37.0 5.3 28 0 0.00 0.0 0 2024-02-06 48 23 35.5 3.6 29 0 0.00 0.0 0 2024-02-07 45 24 34.5 2.5 30 0 0.00 0.0 0 2024-02-08 49 26 37.5 5.4 27 0 0.00 0.0 0 2024-02-09 56 30 43.0 10.7 22 0 0.00 0.0 0 2024-02-10 60 37 48.5 16.1 16 0 0.00 0.0 0 2024-02-11 59 41 50.0 17.4 15 0 0.00 0.0 0 2024-02-12 48 33 40.5 7.7 24 0 0.00 0.0 0 2024-02-13 48 32 40.0 7.1 25 0 0.62 4.0 4 2024-02-14 43 30 36.5 3.4 28 0 0.14 1.0 2 2024-02-15 38 23 30.5 -2.8 34 0 0.00 0.0 2 2024-02-16 42 26 34.0 0.5 31 0 0.00 0.0 1 2024-02-17 44 30 37.0 3.3 28 0 0.38 11.0 11 2024-02-18 37 18 27.5 -6.4 37 0 T T 3 2024-02-19 42 24 33.0 -1.1 32 0 0.00 0.0 2 2024-02-20 43 23 33.0 -1.3 32 0 0.00 0.0 1 2024-02-21 41 20 30.5 -4.0 34 0 0.00 0.0 0 2024-02-22 43 23 33.0 -1.7 32 0 0.00 0.0 0 2024-02-23 50 29 39.5 4.5 25 0 0.14 0.0 0 2024-02-24 48 36 42.0 6.8 23 0 0.01 0.0 0 2024-02-25 45 20 32.5 -2.9 32 0 0.00 0.0 0 2024-02-26 42 25 33.5 -2.2 31 0 0.00 0.0 0 2024-02-27 56 32 44.0 8.1 21 0 0.00 0.0 0 2024-02-28 63 42 52.5 16.3 12 0 0.21 0.0 0 2024-02-29 63 30 46.5 10.2 18 0 0.20 0.0 0 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 27 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Time is starting to tick down now. February has a warm risk which will probably be very hard for snowfall in nyc But February 2018 which hit 80 still had a 4 inch snowfall that month 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 24 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Would be hilarious if we had a 32 inch Nemo bomb in February bringing our snowfall total to above average LOL. but bring it farther west next time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 25 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Would be hilarious if we had a 32 inch Nemo bomb in February bringing our snowfall total to above average LOL. I would far prefer Jonas ;-) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: But February 2018 which hit 80 still had a 4 inch snowfall that month Yeah BlueWave stated that storm track was more important for January and February. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: New Brunswick went +4.5 last February with 16.5” of snow due to the record STJ and borderline super El Nino in mid-February allowing the Northern Stream to relax. So unless the monthly average temperature is above 40° in January and February, it’s always cold enough to snow this year. But December and March are different as +5 patterns will usually be too warm for snow. So for us storm tracks are more important than departures in January and February. Climatological Data for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx) - February 2024Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Sum 1381 820 - - 777 0 1.90 16.0 - Average 47.6 28.3 37.9 4.5 - - - - 0.9 Normal 42.8 24.0 33.4 - 885 0 2.97 9.3 2024-02-01 40 29 34.5 3.2 30 0 0.00 0.0 0 2024-02-02 48 30 39.0 7.6 26 0 0.12 0.0 0 2024-02-03 44 32 38.0 6.5 27 0 0.08 0.0 0 2024-02-04 47 27 37.0 5.4 28 0 0.00 0.0 0 2024-02-05 49 25 37.0 5.3 28 0 0.00 0.0 0 2024-02-06 48 23 35.5 3.6 29 0 0.00 0.0 0 2024-02-07 45 24 34.5 2.5 30 0 0.00 0.0 0 2024-02-08 49 26 37.5 5.4 27 0 0.00 0.0 0 2024-02-09 56 30 43.0 10.7 22 0 0.00 0.0 0 2024-02-10 60 37 48.5 16.1 16 0 0.00 0.0 0 2024-02-11 59 41 50.0 17.4 15 0 0.00 0.0 0 2024-02-12 48 33 40.5 7.7 24 0 0.00 0.0 0 2024-02-13 48 32 40.0 7.1 25 0 0.62 4.0 4 2024-02-14 43 30 36.5 3.4 28 0 0.14 1.0 2 2024-02-15 38 23 30.5 -2.8 34 0 0.00 0.0 2 2024-02-16 42 26 34.0 0.5 31 0 0.00 0.0 1 2024-02-17 44 30 37.0 3.3 28 0 0.38 11.0 11 2024-02-18 37 18 27.5 -6.4 37 0 T T 3 2024-02-19 42 24 33.0 -1.1 32 0 0.00 0.0 2 2024-02-20 43 23 33.0 -1.3 32 0 0.00 0.0 1 2024-02-21 41 20 30.5 -4.0 34 0 0.00 0.0 0 2024-02-22 43 23 33.0 -1.7 32 0 0.00 0.0 0 2024-02-23 50 29 39.5 4.5 25 0 0.14 0.0 0 2024-02-24 48 36 42.0 6.8 23 0 0.01 0.0 0 2024-02-25 45 20 32.5 -2.9 32 0 0.00 0.0 0 2024-02-26 42 25 33.5 -2.2 31 0 0.00 0.0 0 2024-02-27 56 32 44.0 8.1 21 0 0.00 0.0 0 2024-02-28 63 42 52.5 16.3 12 0 0.21 0.0 0 2024-02-29 63 30 46.5 10.2 18 0 0.20 0.0 0 January 2016 comes to mind.... JFK 40 inches of snow 40 degrees average temperature that winter. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago I wonder when the last time DC, Raleigh and Dallas had more snow than Central Park in mid January. Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Raleigh NC 628 AM EST Wed Jan 8 2025 NCZ007>010-021>026-038>041-091130- Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-Orange- Durham-Franklin-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake- 628 AM EST Wed Jan 8 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Wind chill values late tonight into Thursday morning are forecast to be 5 to 10 degrees above zero. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Snow is expected to develop across the forecast area Friday afternoon and evening, then become a wintry mix of precipitation overnight Friday into early Saturday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. $$ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: I wonder when the last time DC, Raleigh and Dallas had more snow than Central Park in mid January. Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Raleigh NC 628 AM EST Wed Jan 8 2025 NCZ007>010-021>026-038>041-091130- Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-Orange- Durham-Franklin-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake- 628 AM EST Wed Jan 8 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Wind chill values late tonight into Thursday morning are forecast to be 5 to 10 degrees above zero. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Snow is expected to develop across the forecast area Friday afternoon and evening, then become a wintry mix of precipitation overnight Friday into early Saturday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. $$ Maybe 1979-80 but that was an El Niño. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago 35 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: No its not. just stop. you have a cold winter on your hands. snowfall possibilities exist for the next 9 weeks in this type of winter. Exactly. No clue why he is all doom. It's tough right now to get snow but something will eventually pop up with all this cold around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago 13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: January 2016 comes to mind.... JFK 40 inches of snow 40 degrees average temperature that winter. Basically 1 huge storm to get to 40 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago 9 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Exactly. No clue why he is all doom. It's tough right now to get snow but something will eventually pop up with all this cold around. One would argue that's probably true. La nina or not February often produces. I just don't know how much cold will be around and I could see us getting some rain late January before we see any significant snow as people cancel winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Exactly. No clue why he is all doom. It's tough right now to get snow but something will eventually pop up with all this cold around. see that’s what they don’t seem to get. They rather it be +5 and get one big storm by luck. if you look at this January, all the fundamentals are in place. youre gonna get a lot of little stuff and you may get a big thing. It will click. much better to have prolonged cold in place then pray for a perfect nino track with mid 40s on both ends of it..if you truly want winter 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago hmm slightly below average temps for a few weeks or one of our biggest blizzards ever i can't decide 1 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago 38 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: I wonder when the last time DC, Raleigh and Dallas had more snow than Central Park in mid January. Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Raleigh NC 628 AM EST Wed Jan 8 2025 NCZ007>010-021>026-038>041-091130- Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-Orange- Durham-Franklin-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake- 628 AM EST Wed Jan 8 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Wind chill values late tonight into Thursday morning are forecast to be 5 to 10 degrees above zero. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Snow is expected to develop across the forecast area Friday afternoon and evening, then become a wintry mix of precipitation overnight Friday into early Saturday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. $$ It hasn't happened (at least not yet). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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