January 2025

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Was it a good look though? The trough access was over us during this time period, and forky warned that the period could easily be cold and dry. 

I think this was one of the thought extinct cold and dry weather patterns of the '70s and '80s that has somehow come back. 

I remember during the snowy period we thought coastal huggers until March 2017, and clippers were extinct and suddenly they're back. Well now that 1970s 1980s cold and dry pattern is back.

yes and even early 90s too.  I have to think the solar max also bears some responsibility.

 

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Was it a good look though? The trough access was over us during this time period, and forky warned that the period could easily be cold and dry. 

I think this was one of the thought extinct cold and dry weather patterns of the '70s and '80s that has somehow come back. 

I remember during the snowy period we thought coastal huggers until March 2017, and clippers were extinct and suddenly they're back. Well now that 1970s 1980s cold and dry pattern is back.

Yes, it was a good look. 
 

We have had sustained cold since the start of December outside of a week after Christmas. 

Cold/dry is always a risk in our favorable patterns. Think back to December 2010 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Was it a good look though? The trough access was over us during this time period, and forky warned that the period could easily be cold and dry. 

I think this was one of the thought extinct cold and dry weather patterns of the '70s and '80s that has somehow come back. 

I remember during the snowy period we thought coastal huggers until March 2017, and clippers were extinct and suddenly they're back. Well now that 1970s 1980s cold and dry pattern is back.

By the way, we're also trending towards drier months (2024 was the first drier than normal year in awhile and I expect more to follow.)

 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yes, it was a good look. 
 

We have had sustained cold since the start of December outside of a week after Christmas. 

Cold/dry is always a risk in our favorable patterns. Think back to December 2010 

I think we've been trending towards drier months for awhile now and I expect this to continue in the following years.

This isn't a GW thing it's a cyclic thing.

Early 2010s was a much wetter period than the one we've now begun.

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 70 (1998)
NYC: 65 (1998)
LGA: 64 (2008)
JFK: 58 (1949)


Lows:

EWR: 3 (1970)
NYC: 2 (1968)
LGA: 3 (1968)
JFK: 1 (1968)

Historical:

 

1953 - A severe icestorm in the northeastern U.S. produced up to four inches of ice in Pennsylvania, and two to three inches in southeastern New York State. In southern New England the ice coated a layer of snow up to 20 inches deep. The storm resulted in 31 deaths and 2.5 million dollars damage. (David Ludlum)

1973 - A severe icestorm struck Atlanta GA. The storm paralyzed the city closing schools and businesses, and damage from the storm was estimated at 25 million dollars. One to four inches of ice coated northern Georgia leaving 300,000 persons without electricity for up to a week. Between 7 PM and 9 PM on the 7th, 2.27 inches (liquid content) of freezing rain, sleet and snow coated Atlanta, as the temperature hovered at 32 degrees. (7th-8th) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

 

1973: Georgia's worst ice storm since 1935 occurred from the 7th through the 8th. Freezing rain and sleet began during the early morning hours on Sunday the 7th and ended in most areas on Monday. Total damage was estimated at well over $25 million. The electric power companies suffered losses estimated at $5 million, and telephone companies had another $2 million in damages. Some schools were closed for more than a week. 

1987 - A winter storm moving out of the Southern Rockies into the Central Plains Region produced 14 inches of snow at Red River NM, and 17 inches in the Wolf Creek ski area of Colorado. Wichita KS was blanketed with seven inches of snow. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - A winter storm spread heavy snow across the northeastern U.S., with up to ten inches reported in southern New Jersey. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Strong northwesterly winds and bitterly cold temperatures prevailed in the north central U.S. Winds in the Great Lakes Region gusted to 58 mph at Chicago IL, and reached 63 mph at Niagara Falls NY. Squalls in western New York State produced 20 inches of snow at Barnes Corners and Lowville. Snow squalls in Upper Michigan produced 26 inches around Keweenaw. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - High winds plagued the northwestern U.S., with the state of Oregon hardest hit. Two persons were killed in Oregon, and nine others were injured, and the high winds downed fifty-five million board feet of timber, valued at more than twenty million dollars. Winds gusted to 90 mph near Pinehurst ID, and wind gusts reached 96 mph at Stevenson WA. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

2019: An unusual January tornado impacted Cortland, Ohio, during the mid-morning hours. The EF-1 tornado developed northeast of Champion Township in Trumbull County and moved east. The tornado brought down numerous trees and wires along the 4.5-mile path. 

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Although snowfall has been disappointing in the New York City area so far, Winter 2024-2025 ranks vastly better than the past two winters in terms of the combination of cold and snow through January 7th. Winter 2022-2023 finished as the second worst (only exceeded by 2001-2002) in terms of warmth and lack of snowfall. Winter 2023-2024 finished as the fourth worst.

In contrast, Winter 2024-2025 currently ranks 84th worst, just marginally worse than Winter 1954-1955.

lol we're right smack dab in the middle of 80s winters 1981-82 and 1985-86, Don.

 

Those weren't bad winters at all!  1981-82 had memorable cold and snowfall in both January and April !! And 1985-86 was actually a very snowy winter in Monmouth county and points south!

 

[SACRUS]

23 hours ago, SACRUS said:

Cold period daily 

 

 

 

Jan 4

EWR: 36 / 28 (-2)
NYC: 33 / 28 (-4)
LGA: 34 / 29 (-4)
JFK: 37 / 30 (0 E)

 

--------------------------------------------------

Jan 5:

EWR: 36 / 28 (-2)
NYC: 33 / 28 (-4)
LGA: 34 / 28 (-4)
JFK: 37 / 29 (-1)

-

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Jan 6:

EWR:   31 / 22 (-6)
NYC: 30 / 22 (-8)
LGA:  33 / 23 (-7)
JFK: 33 / 24 (-5)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Jan 7

EWR: 35 / 19 (-6)
NYC: 33 / 19 (-8)
LGA: 34 / 20 (-8)
JFK: 36 / 20 (-6)

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Allsnow]

 

[Allsnow]

-8 departures in NYC during January isn’t exactly warm especially considering how mild the winters have become 

[SACRUS]

 

more on the Jan 8, 1988(southern) NJ snowstorm

 

https://www.upi.com/Archives/1988/01/08/A-winter-snowstorm-that-smothered-the-Plains-and-the/6715668680040/

[SACRUS]

5 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

-8 departures in NYC during January isn’t exactly warm especially considering how mild the winters have become 

the 22/23 - 30th are looking very cold on the latest guidance to add to those colder dept's.

 

 

[EastonSN+]

13 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yes, it was a good look. 
 

We have had sustained cold since the start of December outside of a week after Christmas. 

Cold/dry is always a risk in our favorable patterns. Think back to December 2010 

Why would forky say we had a risk of cold and dry if it was a good look? It was a cold look for sure, however, as one met stated we were on the backside of a trough and that's why we were dry. 

Trough access is very important. 

In 2018 we had a record warm February with 80° temps and 5 1/2 in of snow. 

 

[Allsnow]

6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Why would forky say we had a risk of cold and dry if it was a good look? It was a cold look for sure, however, as one met stated we were on the backside of a trough and that's why we were dry. 

Trough access is very important. 

In 2018 we had a record warm February with 80° temps and 5 1/2 in of snow. 

 

That was the issue to start December not now 

 

Hopefully we reach 80 this February 

[LibertyBell]

23 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 70 (1998)
NYC: 65 (1998)
LGA: 64 (2008)
JFK: 58 (1949)


Lows:

EWR: 3 (1970)
NYC: 2 (1968)
LGA: 3 (1968)
JFK: 1 (1968)

Historical:

 

1953 - A severe icestorm in the northeastern U.S. produced up to four inches of ice in Pennsylvania, and two to three inches in southeastern New York State. In southern New England the ice coated a layer of snow up to 20 inches deep. The storm resulted in 31 deaths and 2.5 million dollars damage. (David Ludlum)

1973 - A severe icestorm struck Atlanta GA. The storm paralyzed the city closing schools and businesses, and damage from the storm was estimated at 25 million dollars. One to four inches of ice coated northern Georgia leaving 300,000 persons without electricity for up to a week. Between 7 PM and 9 PM on the 7th, 2.27 inches (liquid content) of freezing rain, sleet and snow coated Atlanta, as the temperature hovered at 32 degrees. (7th-8th) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

 

1973: Georgia's worst ice storm since 1935 occurred from the 7th through the 8th. Freezing rain and sleet began during the early morning hours on Sunday the 7th and ended in most areas on Monday. Total damage was estimated at well over $25 million. The electric power companies suffered losses estimated at $5 million, and telephone companies had another $2 million in damages. Some schools were closed for more than a week. 

1987 - A winter storm moving out of the Southern Rockies into the Central Plains Region produced 14 inches of snow at Red River NM, and 17 inches in the Wolf Creek ski area of Colorado. Wichita KS was blanketed with seven inches of snow. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - A winter storm spread heavy snow across the northeastern U.S., with up to ten inches reported in southern New Jersey. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Strong northwesterly winds and bitterly cold temperatures prevailed in the north central U.S. Winds in the Great Lakes Region gusted to 58 mph at Chicago IL, and reached 63 mph at Niagara Falls NY. Squalls in western New York State produced 20 inches of snow at Barnes Corners and Lowville. Snow squalls in Upper Michigan produced 26 inches around Keweenaw. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - High winds plagued the northwestern U.S., with the state of Oregon hardest hit. Two persons were killed in Oregon, and nine others were injured, and the high winds downed fifty-five million board feet of timber, valued at more than twenty million dollars. Winds gusted to 90 mph near Pinehurst ID, and wind gusts reached 96 mph at Stevenson WA. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

2019: An unusual January tornado impacted Cortland, Ohio, during the mid-morning hours. The EF-1 tornado developed northeast of Champion Township in Trumbull County and moved east. The tornado brought down numerous trees and wires along the 4.5-mile path. 

1953 - A severe icestorm in the northeastern U.S. produced up to four inches of ice in Pennsylvania, and two to three inches in southeastern New York State. In southern New England the ice coated a layer of snow up to 20 inches deep. The storm resulted in 31 deaths and 2.5 million dollars damage. (David Ludlum)

 

omg, how much did we have in NYC and Long Island and in NE PA? It sounds like it was historic down here!  Southeastern NY is us!

[LibertyBell]

18 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

-8 departures in NYC during January isn’t exactly warm especially considering how mild the winters have become 

The interesting thing about the tweet from your previous post is the idea that extreme (below zero) cold is blocked by the warmer than normal Great Lakes.

[LibertyBell]

13 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

the 22/23 - 30th are looking very cold on the latest guidance to add to those colder dept's.

 

 

when is that change to warm weather supposed to come now, Tony?

at this rate a below 30.0 mean in NYC for January is within reach.

 

[EastonSN+]

30 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

That was the issue to start December not now 

 

Hopefully we reach 80 this February 

I agree that this coming event had a small window with a bit of Southeast ridging, however it still needed a phase and snow goose was the first to say days ago that this favored the southeast. 

The trough access has definitely been over us this month. 

Yes I want 80° weather now.

[SACRUS]

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

1953 - A severe icestorm in the northeastern U.S. produced up to four inches of ice in Pennsylvania, and two to three inches in southeastern New York State. In southern New England the ice coated a layer of snow up to 20 inches deep. The storm resulted in 31 deaths and 2.5 million dollars damage. (David Ludlum)

 

omg, how much did we have in NYC and Long Island and in NE PA? It sounds like it was historic down here!  Southeastern NY is us!

Ill have to ding into these events (believe it was multiple event/day).  More focussed in N-NJ and S-NE

[SACRUS]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

when is that change to warm weather supposed to come now, Tony?

at this rate a below 30.0 mean in NYC for January is within reach.

 

 

No warmup, let alone any sustained warmup on the horizon.  These types of cold patterns seem to lock in or settle in (overall) for 45 - 60 days (overall)  So with that guess if you count early Jan as the staring point, it would be later in towards mid/late Feb. 

Time will tell.    Chilly into the deep south and Gulf states

 

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

No warmup, let alone any sustained warmup on the horizon.  These types of cold patterns seem to lock in or settle in (overall) for 45 - 60 days (overall)  So with that guess if you count early Jan as the staring point, it would be later in towards mid/late Feb. 

Time will tell.    Chilly into the deep south and Gulf states

 

Already some GEFS members are bailing on the -PNA, it was a unanimous move to -1 or so a few days back now its a split with some wanting to stay positive.  I still think the pattern goes lousy at some stage but it might be mid or late February by the time it does

[the_other_guy]

39 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I think we've been trending towards drier months for awhile now and I expect this to continue in the following years.

This isn't a GW thing it's a cyclic thing.

Early 2010s was a much wetter period than the one we've now begun.

one could hope. snow aside, the climate here has become disgustingly moist.

I would like a year of BN precip

[the_other_guy]

5 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

No warmup, let alone any sustained warmup on the horizon.  These types of cold patterns seem to lock in or settle in (overall) for 45 - 60 days (overall)  So with that guess if you count early Jan as the staring point, it would be later in towards mid/late Feb. 

Time will tell.    Chilly into the deep south and Gulf states

 

Amen. A real winter.

 

One we havent had in a while

[kat5hurricane]

1 hour ago, Dark Star said:

Isn't even that cold, except for the wind chill effect...

Oh it's cold lol and feels especially cold because we haven't been used to this in recent winters. It's the wind that's making it cold and the dry air that's creating dry skin, crappy weather. No wind and it wouldn't be bad.

I also went to a funeral yesterday out in Farmingdale where it felt like 50mph winds with 25 degree temperatures at the gravesite so I was out in it for a while. Cold as a brick.

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

one could hope. snow aside, the climate here has become disgustingly moist.

I would like a year of BN precip

Me too, getting rid of the mold allergies would be absolutely awesome.

We're fine with 40 inches of precip, 50+ inches is way too much.

[EastonSN+]

11 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Already some GEFS members are bailing on the -PNA, it was a unanimous move to -1 or so a few days back now its a split with some wanting to stay positive.  I still think the pattern goes lousy at some stage but it might be mid or late February by the time it does

I agree that the ensembles are starting to move away from a negative PNA which is odd given the proged mjo forcing per below. Although, I am not sure if that is phase two or three in the last frame.

 

[Allsnow]

It’s refreshing to not be looking at mjo charts every day looking for a path to 8-1-2 

[LibertyBell]

18 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

No warmup, let alone any sustained warmup on the horizon.  These types of cold patterns seem to lock in or settle in (overall) for 45 - 60 days (overall)  So with that guess if you count early Jan as the staring point, it would be later in towards mid/late Feb. 

Time will tell.    Chilly into the deep south and Gulf states

 

It reminds me of what happened in 06-07, the back half of winter was 8 weeks of cold.

But didn't our cold start in December? With a short break at the end of the month.

[MJO812]

The one positive about this cold air is that the ocean is cooling which should help the coastal folks later in the winter.

[EastonSN+]

We lose the blocking however Eastern Canada will become very cold and we would have a great cold source to tap into.

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The one positive about this cold air is that the ocean is cooling which should help the coastal folks later in the winter.

Not when the storm track is into the lakes