January 2025

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Don, do you think the chances are there that we average under 30.0 for the month?

I know you don't do precip forecasts but what are the chances that January finishes with below average precipitation?

2024 is going to finish with below normal precipitation and I think we're headed that way in following years.  Looks like our extremely wet period is coming to an end. We are cycling back towards the 70s-90s era of drier years (and hotter summers with more 90 degree days too.)

I believe it will be tough for January to average below 30° in NYC. We're really not getting cross-polar flow. When the pattern begins to break down late in the month, it will turn milder.

[LibertyBell]

27 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I am happy for the Mid-Atlantic they have a real shot of having an above average snowfall winter.

Maybe New England too when the pattern flips.

Living in the middle is no man's land.

 

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

What's the reason for these 3 days of high winds? Can the stronger northern stream actually make winds stronger at the surface too?

One of the most expansive 50/50 lows that we have seen so far this decade with high pressure pressing in from the west.

 

 

 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

One of the most expansive 50/50 lows that we have seen so far this decade with high pressure pressing in from the west.

 

 

 

Was the 50/50 low one of our previous storms that stalled out in the Atlantic because of the blocking?

Maybe southern Greenland is getting historic snows from that beast.

[bluewave]

22 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Was the 50/50 low one of our previous storms that stalled out in the Atlantic because of the blocking?

Maybe southern Greenland is getting historic snows from that beast.

Yeah, a bunch of individual lows under the block feeding into the big gyre. It may take the transient Southeast Ridge in a little over 10 days to finally weaken it. Then it looks like we get a vortex consolidating closer to Hudson Bay out toward day 15.

 

[Allsnow]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, a bunch of individual lows under the block feeding into the big gyre. It may take the transient Southeast Ridge in a little over 10 days to finally weaken it. Then it looks like we get a vortex consolidating closer to Hudson Bay out toward day 15.

 

Day 15 look might be from the stratosphere disruption 

[Allsnow]

 

[sussexcountyobs]

Currently: Gusty winds. Snow flurries falling. 21.2°

[Volcanic Winter]

Even if cold and dry is the risk, I will always take the cold and hope snow opportunities work their way in later.

We have shown that we're consistently able to fail via too warm too often, I'm all for rolling the dice during an unexpected cooler winter if a similar set up does continue.

We all want a big storm, but if we can get a couple - few more minor events even to break up the monotony, to me that's an infinite improvement on watching cutter after cutter bringing 45 degree rainstorms all winter long.

C'mon, it may not be ideal but let's roll the dice and see what happens. For some reason it feels later this year than it actually is, I genuinely feel like it's Jan 28th and not Jan 8th, but it's actually still rather early in the season. May end up another ratter, just a cooler one. Or we could have some nice surprises; at least we've had some fun 'model cinema' as @Typhoon Tip calls it .

[TJW014]

JCP&L sucks. This is the 3rd time in under two weeks that half of the town is without power. On one of the coldest nights of the year as well. Completely unacceptable. 

[Volcanic Winter]

32 minutes ago, TJW014 said:

JCP&L sucks. This is the 3rd time in under two weeks that half of the town is without power. On one of the coldest nights of the year as well. Completely unacceptable. 

My power just blinked out but came right back on, I'm right on the Manchester border. Sure enough, JCP&L just texted me as if my power's out.. At least they're on it .

I've been here since 2011 and always felt the grid in this area is extremely fragile.

[TJW014]

24 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

My power just blinked out but came right back on, I'm right on the Manchester border. Sure enough, JCP&L just texted me as if my power's out.. At least they're on it .

I've been here since 2011 and always felt the grid in this area is extremely fragile.

Just blows my mind it always goes out for something pointless. Not going to get any better as more folks are connecting their cars to the grid too. 

[wdrag]

Around Thursday January 16 PA-NJ-CT-MA-LI:  areas of snow or snow showers should dust portions of this area with 1/2-2" of snow. UNCERTAIN target area but the snow could briefly be a hazard and the max amount may only be an inch?  Where is the target for accumulative snow.  No thread til we get past the 11th event and even then maybe no thread, especially if target for a minor 1" s outside of our NYC subforum. 

January 19-22 NO THREAD from me until some sort of consistent thermal modeling develops but all modeling says there will be an event. Is it mainly rain here in NYC with a little ice-snow to start?   I've taken the pessimistic view to start. Overall I think a "potentially" large areal coverage wintry impact event probably evolves first over the southern USA as rain around the 19th-then becomes larger as it moves northward the 20th-22nd. Does it come out in pieces? It probably but not certainly,  should be a snow or ice mix in the northeast, at least to start.   No thread since 12 days away and what I perceive as vast uncertainty on thermal structure. 

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

My power just blinked out but came right back on, I'm right on the Manchester border. Sure enough, JCP&L just texted me as if my power's out.. At least they're on it .

I've been here since 2011 and always felt the grid in this area is extremely fragile.

We have that here too, but it's usually in the summer. Sometimes with thunderstorms but sometimes on a bright sunny day when the wind gusts to 20 lol.

Had one of those last summer, my power went out for 4 hours and I was sweltering in the heat.

 

 

[TJW014]

Got the wood stove going. Gonna take a while to get some heat going upstairs. 

[Allsnow]

 

[bluewave]

NYC and surrounding areas are on the lower side of La Niña seasonal snowfall by January 10th since 1980. The best La Ninas are usually frontloaded by nature. We are behind 2022 but ahead of 2012. 
 

NYC La Niña snowfall by January 10th

2025…3.7”

2023…T

2022…6.0”

2021…10.5”

2018…17.5”

2017….9.5”

2012….2.9”

2011…21.8”

2009…7.0”

2008…2.9”

2006…9.7”

2001…15.2”

1999…4.5”

1996…37.2”

1989….5.3”

1986….0.9”

1985….7.0”

1984….5.4”

[Allsnow]

The best sustained h5 look we have had in years and only 3.7 of snowfall haha 

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

NYC and surrounding areas are on the lower side of La Niña seasonal snowfall by January 10th since 1980. The best La Ninas are usually frontloaded by nature. We are behind 2022 but ahead of 2012. 
 

NYC La Niña snowfall by January 10th

2025…3.7”

2022…6.0”

2021…10.5”

2018…17.5”

2017….9.5”

2012….2.9”

2011…21.8”

2009…7.0”

2008…2.9”

2006…9.7”

2001…15.2”

1999…4.5”

1996…37.2”

1989….5.3”

1986….0.9”

1985….7.0”

1984….5.4”

But la ninas are also back loaded, so I think people have hope that once this pattern breaks there will be better chances for snowfall.

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

NYC and surrounding areas are on the lower side of La Niña seasonal snowfall by January 10th since 1980. The best La Ninas are usually frontloaded by nature. We are behind 2022 but ahead of 2012. 
 

NYC La Niña snowfall by January 10th

2025…3.7”

2022…6.0”

2021…10.5”

2018…17.5”

2017….9.5”

2012….2.9”

2011…21.8”

2009…7.0”

2008…2.9”

2006…9.7”

2001…15.2”

1999…4.5”

1996…37.2”

1989….5.3”

1986….0.9”

1985….7.0”

1984….5.4”

Interesting more than a few of those years also had good snowfall in March.

 

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The best sustained h5 look we have had in years and only 3.7 of snowfall haha 

Just about everyone to our south cashing in though, in a Nina. Nature has a weird cruel dry sense of humor. 

[kat5hurricane]

Cold and dry, the worst 

[Dark Star]

1 hour ago, TJW014 said:

Got the wood stove going. Gonna take a while to get some heat going upstairs. 

My parents used to tell me about growing up in the coal mining region in Pennsylvania, with frost on the walls in their bedrooms.  They had down comforters...

[Dark Star]

Just now, kat5hurricane said:

Cold and dry, the worst 

Isn't even that cold, except for the wind chill effect...

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

Just about everyone to our south cashing in though, in a Nina. Nature has a weird cruel dry sense of humor. 

Yup. Unbelievable. It’s like a Nino winter with storms sliding to our south and the coldest anomalies down in that area 

[Allsnow]

Looks like the coldest air of the month will be at the end of the month 

[EastonSN+]

12 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The best sustained h5 look we have had in years and only 3.7 of snowfall haha 

Was it a good look though? The trough access was over us during this time period, and forky warned that the period could easily be cold and dry. 

I think this was one of the thought extinct cold and dry weather patterns of the '70s and '80s that has somehow come back. 

I remember during the snowy period we thought coastal huggers until March 2017, and clippers were extinct and suddenly they're back. Well now that 1970s 1980s cold and dry pattern is back.

[donsutherland1]

Although snowfall has been disappointing in the New York City area so far, Winter 2024-2025 ranks vastly better than the past two winters in terms of the combination of cold and snow through January 7th. Winter 2022-2023 finished as the second worst (only exceeded by 2001-2002) in terms of warmth and lack of snowfall. Winter 2023-2024 finished as the fourth worst.

In contrast, Winter 2024-2025 currently ranks 84th worst, just marginally worse than Winter 1954-1955.

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yup. Unbelievable. It’s like a Nino winter with storms sliding to our south and the coldest anomalies down in that area 

this happens in la ninas too.... for example 1988-89 and a few of the late 90s la nina winters.

When you have a strong northern stream, storms generally go west to east (whether south of us or north of us.)

 

[SACRUS]

 

25 / 7 winds a bit calmer for now.  Cold / windy highs near or sub 30 tomorrow lows teens.  Precip stays focused south of DC this Saturday, light stuff this way.  Cold overall the next 7 - 10 days with coldest days looking 9th, 15-16 so far.    Perhaps stronger reinforcing cold rebuilding by the last week of the month, which can offer the next opportunity for some more meaningful snows and even colder departures solidifying a deep negative monthly departure - hope there is some snow to show for the cold.