January 2025

[uofmiami]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

41 kts isn't far from 50 mph

LGA up to 55mph

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Much weaker Pacific Jet in 90-91 so we were still able to reach average snowfall even if it was a mild winter by the averages in those days. The pattern really flipped warmer in Janaury 1990 with the amped up MJO. December 1989 into January 1990 was one of the strongest MJO driven patterns of that era.

 

Is that why 1989-90 was such a weird winter, with a historically cold December but very suppressed so not much snow for us and then it became historically warm in January and February, with monthly averages near 40 degrees after December's average was only 25 degrees?

How often has December been the coldest month of the entire winter? And in that case it was by 15 degrees!

 

[weathermedic]

Just now, uofmiami said:

LGA up to 55mph

And no wind advisory for the city/LI 

[EastonSN+]

Interesting week 3 look.

[TheClimateChanger]

32 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

What I like about the late 80s and early 90s is we had a solar maximum in 1991 I think it was and 1990 and 1991 were, at the time, two of NYC's warmest years on record (22 out of 24 months above normal.)  We have a solar maximum right now, I wonder how that has influenced this winter and the last 2 paltry winters we've had.

I love the solar maximum for being able to see the Northern Lights for the first time in my life, but it's not that great for snowfall.  Furthermore, there may be a lag effect meaning the next two winters may not be that good either.

 

Yeah, that's probably the closest analog - although it's much warmer now IMO. Both 1990 & 1991, at the time were considered very warm, but 2024 beat them by 2+ degrees at PIT airport. I was doing some research, and was reading an article published in the Pittsburgh Post Gazette in early March 1993, talking about how it was just a normal winter, but felt much worse due to the prior several being milder and less snowy than normal. Of course, less than two weeks later, the Superstorm would hit, and coupled with other snowfall that month, would send the final seasonal total to one of the higher amounts on record.

Maybe we just need another volcanic eruption like Pinatubo to give us a bit of help in our bleak climate state. About solar maximum. Curiously, I was reading "Climate Through the Ages" by C. E. P. Brooks (1926), and it's amazing how much our knowledge has improved. Believe it or not, but, at that time, high solar activity was believed to be correlated to colder weather, ostensibly by depletion of stratospheric ozone [a potent greenhouse gas] outweighing the small increase in irradiation. They did not believe carbon dioxide had a large impact on climate, due to Angstrom's experimentation, which suggested it largely absorbed radiation at wavelengths that were already saturated by water vapor absorption. Of course, that experiment was in a vacuum tube, and not representative of the earth's atmosphere. That myth still gets trotted out time to time from so-called contrarians.

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Yeah, that's probably the closest analog - although it's much warmer now IMO. Both 1990 & 1991, at the time were considered very warm, but 2024 beat them by 2+ degrees at PIT airport. I was doing some research, and was reading an article published in the Pittsburgh Post Gazette in early March 1993, talking about how it was just a normal winter, but felt much worse due to the prior several being milder and less snowy than normal. Of course, less than two weeks later, the Superstorm would hit, and coupled with other snowfall that month, would send the final seasonal total to one of the higher amounts on record.

Maybe we just need another volcanic eruption like Pinatubo to give us a bit of help in our bleak climate state. About solar maximum. Curiously, I was reading "Climate Through the Ages" by C. E. P. Brooks (1926), and it's amazing how much our knowledge has improved. Believe it or not, but, at that time, high solar activity was believed to be correlated to colder weather, ostensibly by depletion of stratospheric ozone [a potent greenhouse gas] outweighing the small increase in irradiation. They did not believe carbon dioxide had a large impact on climate, due to Angstrom's experimentation, which suggested it largely absorbed radiation at wavelengths that were already saturated by water vapor absorption. Of course, that experiment was in a vacuum tube, and not representative of the earth's atmosphere. That myth still gets trotted out time to time from so-called contrarians.

Thanks I read that Pinatubo might also have had something to do with how cold and snowy 1993-94 and 1995-96 were.

About solar, I wonder how much was known back in the early 90s about the influence of solar maxima on atmospheric ozone levels and ozone's connection to climate too.  Not to be confused with ground level ozone of course which is a car exhaust NO2 byproduct and air pollutant.

 

[EWR757]

22 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

Winds are in kts or mph? I'm assuming for aviation in kts

Knots.

[SACRUS]

 

Gusting to 31 here now WNW

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Did you see that report of 22.5 inches from SW Delaware?

Likely wrong-doubt there was 22 inches anywhere

[Allsnow]

Awful euro run. 
 

cold/dry out to 360 hours. 

[winterwx21]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Awful euro run. 
 

cold/dry out to 360 hours. 

But if it's consistent cold it's likely that at least light snowfall threats will pop up. We're not doing too bad with over 5 inches so far and likely a little more on the way for Saturday. I'll take a consistent cold pattern that at least gives us a chance. 

[SACRUS]

 Gusts to 40 at EWR
and 46 at LGA

[Big Jims Videos]

1 hour ago, MANDA said:

Seems a tad sparse over SNJ considering what fell yesterday but maybe not yet included. 

Manahawkin in Southern Ocean County got less snow than Wall Township in southern Monmouth County.  

[JustinRP37]

16 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Awful euro run. 
 

cold/dry out to 360 hours. 

Hey cold and dry is great to make snow in! I am happy if the ski areas are able to make it! 

[MANDA]

2024 highlights for NJ:

https://www.njweather.org/content/onjscs-top-10-nj-weather-and-climate-events-2024

[EastonSN+]

Can't shake the trough right over us 

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Can't shake the trough right over us 

I have to think sooner or later a real threat will pop up if we keep the cold. The SE ridge will help. 

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I have to think sooner or later a real threat will pop up if we keep the cold. The SE ridge will help. 

[Allsnow]

22 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I have to think sooner or later a real threat will pop up if we keep the cold. The SE ridge will help. 

@snowman19 must be slamming his fists screaming where is the RNA 

gefs/eps/geps continue with the current look we have now 

[snowman19]

29 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

@snowman19 must be slamming his fists screaming where is the RNA 

gefs/eps/geps continue with the current look we have now 

Keep the current look we have now. Cold, suppressive and dry!! Lmfaoooooo

@Allsnow In all seriousness I wholeheartedly believe we go RNA. Forcing is going into the IO. You can hold me to it

[Allsnow]

Just now, snowman19 said:

Keep the current look we have now. Cold, suppressive and dry!! Lmfaoooooo

Haha. I still think we get that look In February 

[bluewave]

Another day with the highs beating guidance with many spots getting above 32° today.

[Allsnow]

EPS showing some support for a Miller B around the 20th 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

Gusting to 31 here now WNW

What's the reason for these 3 days of high winds? Can the stronger northern stream actually make winds stronger at the surface too?

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

I have to think sooner or later a real threat will pop up if we keep the cold. The SE ridge will help. 

The real threat will be in the transition period, probably around January 20th.  Historically, at least over the last decade or so, January 20th is around the time when we get our largest snow events of the season.

[Eduardo]

5 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Interesting week 3 look.

Not sure that’ll verify, but that’s kind of a ‘13-14’ish look, no?

I find it hard to believe that we don’t score at least one warning-criteria event if the cold stays nearby.

[donsutherland1]

Final snowfalls from the January 5-6, 2025 Mid-Atlantic snowstorm included:

Baltimore: 6.6"
Bridgeport: 0.4"
Islip: 0.4"
New York City: 0.9"
Newark: 0.8"
Philadelphia: 1.8"
Richmond: 6.0"
Washington, DC: 7.2"

The last storm to bring 6" or more snow to Baltimore, Richmond, and Washington, DC occurred during January 22-24, 2016.

In the wake of the recent snowstorm, the rest of the week will feature quieter weather in terms of precipitation. There will be a gusty wind, at times. A developing coastal storm could graze parts of the region during the weekend. Before then, the storm has the potential to bring Atlanta a minor accumulation of snow on Friday into Saturday. The last time Atlanta experienced a measurable snowfall was December 26, 2022 when 0.1" snow fell.

An extended period of generally below normal temperatures is underway in the New York City area. Although this cold regime will likely extend through at least mid-month, the kind of severe cold that produces minimum temperatures below 10° in the Philadelphia to New York City areas is unlikely during that period. The cold could still peak with readings dropping into the teens and several subfreezing highs.

The second and third weeks of January will likely feature widespread cold anomalies in much of the eastern half of the CONUS and Canada south of the Hudson and James Bays. The potential exists for widespread cold anomalies of 6°-10° below normal during that week in parts of that region, particularly the Southeast. Those anomalies will likely result more from the prolonged nature of the cold than its severity. However, notable exceptions could be areas with fresh snow cover that experience strong radiational cooling.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around January 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.02°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.63°C. Neutral ENSO conditions may still evolve into a La Niña event during the winter. Uncertainty as to whether a La Niña will actually develop persists. On the December 19 outlook, 56% of dynamical models but 0% of the statistical models forecast the development of a La Niña.

The SOI was +3.02 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -3.440 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 80% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 30.3° (3.4° below normal).

 

[LibertyBell]

10 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Final snowfalls from the January 5-6, 2025 Mid-Atlantic snowstorm included:

Baltimore: 6.6"
Bridgeport: 0.4"
Islip: 0.4"
New York City: 0.9"
Newark: 0.8"
Philadelphia: 1.8"
Richmond: 6.0"
Washington, DC: 7.2"

The last storm to bring 6" or more snow to Baltimore, Richmond, and Washington, DC occurred during January 22-24, 2016.

In the wake of the recent snowstorm, the rest of the week will feature quieter weather in terms of precipitation. There will be a gusty wind, at times. A developing coastal storm could graze parts of the region during the weekend. Before then, the storm has the potential to bring Atlanta a minor accumulation of snow on Friday into Saturday. The last time Atlanta experienced a measurable snowfall was December 26, 2022 when 0.1" snow fell.

An extended period of generally below normal temperatures is underway in the New York City area. Although this cold regime will likely extend through at least mid-month, the kind of severe cold that produces minimum temperatures below 10° in the Philadelphia to New York City areas is unlikely during that period. The cold could still peak with readings dropping into the teens and several subfreezing highs.

The second and third weeks of January will likely feature widespread cold anomalies in much of the eastern half of the CONUS and Canada south of the Hudson and James Bays. The potential exists for widespread cold anomalies of 6°-10° below normal during that week in parts of that region, particularly the Southeast. Those anomalies will likely result more from the prolonged nature of the cold than its severity. However, notable exceptions could be areas with fresh snow cover that experience strong radiational cooling.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around January 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.02°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.63°C. Neutral ENSO conditions may still evolve into a La Niña event during the winter. Uncertainty as to whether a La Niña will actually develop persists. On the December 19 outlook, 56% of dynamical models but 0% of the statistical models forecast the development of a La Niña.

The SOI was +3.02 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -3.440 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 80% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 30.3° (3.4° below normal).

 

Don, do you think the chances are there that we average under 30.0 for the month?

I know you don't do precip forecasts but what are the chances that January finishes with below average precipitation?

2024 is going to finish with below normal precipitation and I think we're headed that way in following years.  Looks like our extremely wet period is coming to an end. We are cycling back towards the 70s-90s era of drier years (and hotter summers with more 90 degree days too.)

[Allsnow]

I get that it’s frustrating being in a cold dry pattern.

 

At the very least, I’m glad we are tracking winter storms. I think this beats the alternative which is looking at 11-15 day ensemble runs while it’s mild/raining 

[EastonSN+]

18 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I get that it’s frustrating being in a cold dry pattern.

 

At the very least, I’m glad we are tracking winter storms. I think this beats the alternative which is looking at 11-15 day ensemble runs while it’s mild/raining 

I am happy for the Mid-Atlantic they have a real shot of having an above average snowfall winter.