January 2025

[LibertyBell]

15 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

80s were a lot colder with more frequent snow events 

This a completely different era

Just talking about January specifically.

 

[LibertyBell]

16 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We are coming up on the 40th anniversary of one of the greatest Arctic outbreaks of the late 20th Century. It was one the most impressive displays from the Long Beach Boardwalk of Arctic Seasmoke plus multiple steamnadoes over the ocean. I was out on the boardwalk with -2° temperatures and 40 to 50 mph gusts. One of the few times I got to experience a below 0° in morning and afternoon temperatures in the single digits. We had a 6” snowstorm a few days earlier with highs below freezing ratio fluff. Then another 6” with a few events a week later. So our 80s Arctic outbreaks usually had at least some snow and not cold and dry.
 

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KJFK/date/1985-1-21
 

 

That 1985 arctic outbreak was even more extreme than the one in 1994.

Didn't NYC have this long streak without any 6" events during the 80s? It barely ended with a 6.2" event in the early 90s in March I think? But it was a mix storm and JFK's streak without 6" events continued...

Chris do you know offhand what the longest streaks without a 6" storm were at both NYC and JFK?

 

[EastonSN+]

19 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

80s were a lot colder with more frequent snow events 

This a completely different era

This aligns more closely with the 1970s which were cold and relatively dry. 1980s were split and volatile where we had very very warm periods Mixed in with the cold.

[wdrag]

KAOO: Altoona, Altoona-Blair County Airport, PA, United States [41kt, 21m/s]

KHPN: White Plains, NY, United States [41kt, 21m/s]

KLGA: New York, La Guardia Airport, NY, United States [40kt, 21m/s]

KMPO: Mount Pocono, PA, United States [47kt, 24m/s]

 

I saw a 50 Knot at Mt Pocono recently. 

[EastonSN+]

1979/80 maybe a good match.

[LibertyBell]

23 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We are coming up on the 40th anniversary of one of the greatest Arctic outbreaks of the late 20th Century. It was one the most impressive displays from the Long Beach Boardwalk of Arctic Seasmoke plus multiple steamnadoes over the ocean. I was out on the boardwalk with -2° temperatures and 40 to 50 mph gusts. One of the few times I got to experience a below 0° in morning and afternoon temperatures in the single digits. We had a 6” snowstorm a few days earlier with highs below freezing ratio fluff. Then another 6” with a few events a week later. So our 80s Arctic outbreaks usually had at least some snow and not cold and dry.
 

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KJFK/date/1985-1-21
 

 

Wow, JFK hit -2 at three different points that morning, including as late as 9 AM!

That 10 degree *high* from 7 PM to 10 PM would have really annoyed me lol, the real high was less than that, during the day.

Do you know of the last time JFK officially had a low below zero and a high below 10?

What was the lowest wind chill that morning with winds of 30 mph gusting to 40 mph and was that the lowest wind chill ever recorded at JFK? Thanks!

 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, wdrag said:

KAOO: Altoona, Altoona-Blair County Airport, PA, United States [41kt, 21m/s]

KHPN: White Plains, NY, United States [41kt, 21m/s]

KLGA: New York, La Guardia Airport, NY, United States [40kt, 21m/s]

KMPO: Mount Pocono, PA, United States [47kt, 24m/s]

 

I saw a 50 Knot at Mt Pocono recently. 

JFK might beat those numbers, my house just shook with our latest wind gust, Walt!

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

1979/80 maybe a good match.

Too bad we didn't get an October snowfall lol, October 1979 saw a surprise October snowfall all the way down to DC.

[bluewave]

13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

That 1985 arctic outbreak was even more extreme than the one in 1994.

Didn't NYC have this long streak without any 6" events during the 80s? It barely ended with a 6.2" event in the early 90s in March I think? But it was a mix storm and JFK's streak without 6" events continued...

Chris do you know offhand what the longest streaks without a 6" storm were at both NYC and JFK?

 

We had multiple 3-6” events around our big 1980s Arctic Outbreaks. Even if NYC didn’t make it to exactly 6”, several spots around the area from NNJ out to Suffolk did. So the cold and dry during the 1980s was a bit of a misnomer. While it was true that the big 12”+ KU events were a rarity back then , we had multiple seasons with close to 25” average in the 70s and 80s without one. Since it was cold enough back then to get to average with a bunch of small to moderate events. With the warmer winters since the 1990s, a KU has been become a prerequisite for average snowfall. These days we just don’t have enough sustained cold to get to average with just small to moderate events.

[EastonSN+]

15 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Too bad we didn't get an October snowfall lol, October 1979 saw a surprise October snowfall all the way down to DC.

Yeah we haven't had in October snowstorm since 2011 I believe? At least we had a May dusting a couple years ago LOL.

[North and West]

Walt it sounds like you feel it might be just a little too mild for significant snowfall for NYC, Long Island, etc, post January 20th?
 

Sun angle!




.

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yeah we haven't had in October snowstorm since 2011 I believe? At least we had a May dusting a couple years ago LOL.

Both of those were historic.  I was in the Poconos for the May 2020 event and there was 2-4 inches of snow there and it snowed all night Saturday night and almost all day Sunday with wind chills near 0 and lows in the teens and highs in the 20s.  And then Monday we had thunderstorms with hail there! Brought back memories of May 1977!

October 2011 had thundersnow and 20 inches of a very wet snow in the Poconos!

 

[Stormlover74]

Wind is whipping today 

[LibertyBell]

19 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We had multiple 3-6” events around our big 1980s Arctic Outbreaks. Even if NYC didn’t make it to exactly 6”, several spots around the area from NNJ out to Suffolk did. So the cold and dry during the 1980s was a bit of a misnomer. While it was true that the big 12”+ KU events were a rarity back then , we had multiple seasons with close to 25” average in the 70s and 80s without one. Since it was cold enough back then to get to average with a bunch of small to moderate events. With the warmer winters since the 1990s, a KU has been become a prerequisite for average snowfall. These days we just don’t have enough sustained cold to get to average with just small to moderate events.

the late 80s to early 90s though could be a good match for what we have now.

1988-89, 1989-90, 1990-91, 1991-92 four winters that didn't have much snow although there was a positive bust in there when we got like 9 inches of snow in a 36 hour February snowstorm lol.

 

[wdrag]

1 minute ago, North and West said:

Sun angle!




.

Funny...  I just look at basics..daily norms etc. Jan 20 CP Max 35-40, Min 25-30 low. 18z/20 ensembles are all just above freezing which tells me maybe melting on streets?  NAEFS 00z/21 BL temp just sub freezing here... so odds permit snow.  

 

Let it snow...

 

One thing seems to stand out is the snow hole here in se CT/se MA recent event and future modeling, 

[MANDA]

Overnight low of 14 with a howling wind.  Lost power briefly.  It is cold out there.

Finished with .30" snow yesterday with a melted total of .02".

[bluewave]

14 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

the late 80s to early 90s though could be a good match for what we have now.

1988-89, 1989-90, 1990-91, 1991-92 four winters that didn't have much snow although there was a positive bust in there when we got like 9 inches of snow in a 36 hour February snowstorm lol.

 

1990-1991 wasn’t too bad as it was of those more frequent near average winters for snowfall close to 25” following the previous 2 lower seasons.

[LibertyBell]

21 minutes ago, bluewave said:

1990-1991 wasn’t too bad as it was of those more frequent near average winters for snowfall close to 25” following the previous 2 lower seasons.

The interesting thing I find about this period is that the very warm 2 year period 1990-1991 is usually blamed on a solar maximum (22 out of 24 months above normal at NYC.)  We are now in the midst of a solar maximum, I wonder how much this is linked to the weather we have now.  I saw Ray mentioned it in his long range forecast and said there is also a lag effect so the next two winters may also lack in the snowfall department.

 

 

 

[LibertyBell]

23 minutes ago, bluewave said:

1990-1991 wasn’t too bad as it was of those more frequent near average winters for snowfall close to 25” following the previous 2 lower seasons.

February 1991 had that weird storm that no one predicted and gave us 9 inches of snow over 36 hours lol.

[LibertyBell]

36 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Funny...  I just look at basics..daily norms etc. Jan 20 CP Max 35-40, Min 25-30 low. 18z/20 ensembles are all just above freezing which tells me maybe melting on streets?  NAEFS 00z/21 BL temp just sub freezing here... so odds permit snow.  

 

Let it snow...

 

One thing seems to stand out is the snow hole here in se CT/se MA recent event and future modeling, 

Interesting thing is a few days before the 20th we're predicted to have some of our coldest weather of the month with highs only in the 20s.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

1979/80 maybe a good match.

What I like about the late 80s and early 90s is we had a solar maximum in 1991 I think it was and 1990 and 1991 were, at the time, two of NYC's warmest years on record (22 out of 24 months above normal.)  We have a solar maximum right now, I wonder how that has influenced this winter and the last 2 paltry winters we've had.

I love the solar maximum for being able to see the Northern Lights for the first time in my life, but it's not that great for snowfall.  Furthermore, there may be a lag effect meaning the next two winters may not be that good either.

 

[MANDA]

Love a good visible satellite loop after a snowfall.

 

https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/PSUGOES_MESO1/loop60.html

[EWR757]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

JFK might beat those numbers, my house just shook with our latest wind gust, Walt!

It would be useful if the scale continued beyond 30 knots.  The wind gusts at JFK have really increased the last hour.

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=KJFK&hours=72&units=english&chart=on&headers=on&obs=raw&hourly=false&pview=standard

[EWR757]

Here is a better link for instant winds:

https://runwayweather.com/itws

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, EWR757 said:

Here is a better link for instant winds:

https://runwayweather.com/itws

Thanks this will really help, in the last minute there was a really strong wind gust here!

[MANDA]

Seems a tad sparse over SNJ considering what fell yesterday but maybe not yet included. 

[uofmiami]

4 minutes ago, EWR757 said:

Here is a better link for instant winds:

https://runwayweather.com/itws

Winds are in kts or mph? I'm assuming for aviation in kts

[LibertyBell]

Just now, MANDA said:

Seems a tad sparse over SNJ considering what fell yesterday but maybe not yet included. 

Did you see that report of 22.5 inches from SW Delaware?

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, uofmiami said:

Winds are in kts or mph? I assuming for aviation in kts

41 kts isn't far from 50 mph

[bluewave]

11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

February 1991 had that weird storm that no one predicted and gave us 9 inches of snow over 36 hours lol.

Much weaker Pacific Jet in 90-91 so we were still able to reach average snowfall even if it was a mild winter by the averages in those days. The pattern really flipped warmer in Janaury 1990 with the amped up MJO. December 1989 into January 1990 was one of the strongest MJO driven patterns of that era.