January 2025

[LibertyBell]

27 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We really need at least a transient SER in order to not suppress the overrunning zone too far south with colder air in Canada for the first time this winter. Maybe we get a compromise between the GEFS and EPS. A more well defined lead shortwave which cuts and drags in cold air behind. Then hopefully a serviceable baroclinic zone nearby for overrunning potential.

TWC just showed the GFS output and said "it shows over a foot of snow from Dallas to Boston" lol....

 

[LibertyBell]

30 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We really need at least a transient SER in order to not suppress the overrunning zone too far south with colder air in Canada for the first time this winter. Maybe we get a compromise between the GEFS and EPS. A more well defined lead shortwave which cuts and drags in cold air behind. Then hopefully a serviceable baroclinic zone nearby for overrunning potential.

why is it that we have a strong southeast ridge 11 months out of the year and the one month we need it, it disappears....

 

this may be a case of us needing more global warming to pump up the southeast ridge lol.

 

[jm1220]

27 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

TWC just showed the GFS output and said "it shows over a foot of snow from Dallas to Boston" lol....

 

Another reason I haven’t watched them in years. 

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Another reason I haven’t watched them in years. 

it really is a joke.... even their so-called local forecast (check it) says 1-3 inches for both Huntington and Valley Stream lol.

[donsutherland1]

A significant snowstorm continues to bring light snow to parts of the Middle Atlantic region. Snowfall amounts so far, include:

Baltimore: 5.8"
Bridgeport: 0.4"
Islip: 0.4"
New York City: 0.9"
Newark: 0.8"
Philadelphia: 1.8"
Richmond: 4.0"
Washington, DC: 5.5"

An extended period of generally below normal temperatures is underway in the New York City area. Although this cold regime will likely extend through at least mid-month, the kind of severe cold that produces minimum temperatures below 10° in the Philadelphia to New York City areas is unlikely during that period. The cold could still peak with readings dropping into the teens and several subfreezing highs.

The second and third weeks of January will likely feature widespread cold anomalies in much of the eastern half of the CONUS and Canada south of the Hudson and James Bays. The potential exists for widespread cold anomalies of 6°-10° below normal during that week in parts of that region, particularly the Southeast. Those anomalies will likely result more from the prolonged nature of the cold than its severity. However, notable exceptions could be areas with fresh snow cover that experience strong radiational cooling.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around January 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.02°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.63°C. Neutral ENSO conditions may still evolve into a La Niña event during the winter. Uncertainty as to whether a La Niña will actually develop persists. On the December 19 outlook, 56% of dynamical models but 0% of the statistical models forecast the development of a La Niña.

The SOI was +5.33 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -3.752 today.

 

[North and West]

DC is just a snow hole in general. I’d hate to live there and expect a snowier outcome. And there’s always that weenie 700mb fronto area that likes to set up north of where models have. Even helped us to a small extent. 

Yea, it’s a swamp plus an UHI. Rough place to be if you like snow.


.

[psv88]

Going to be a brutal week. Windy and cold. 

[psv88]

20 outside and 40 mph winds. Terrible 

[wdrag]

 

Today through Thursday I84 corridor: Check for black ice this morning-residual moisture freezing. Windy and winter cold. Scattered northwest wind gusts 40-50 MPH! Isolated power outages especially Thursday when ridge gusts in PA/northern NJ and eastern NYS might reach 55 MPH!

 

 

January 19-22 mainly interior northeast USA just northwest of Interstate 95 from DC to Boston up through NYS and the Great Lakes. It becomes wet or white depending on location but storminess increases the last 10 days or so in January as temps moderate. This is when I think we have a decent chance of a snowstorm but timing is everything.  Modeling continues to open up the eastern half of the country to moderating temps (seasonable) and better chances for significant precipitation. 

 

 

 

[bluewave]

Big windchill factor day with highs below freezing and wind gusts over 40 mph.

[Dark Star]

9 hours ago, psv88 said:

Going to be a brutal week. Windy and cold. 

The cold not so brutal, the wind does make it uncomfortable at times...

[MJO812]

22 outside

Very icy with everything covered in snow.

[Allsnow]

January feel outside this morning 

 

finally a cold winter after 10 years 

[Cfa]

Today’s sun should annihilate what little snow fell, but the heavy salt everywhere will persist by the looks of things, we need another New Years Eve style thunderstorm setup ASAP.

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, Cfa said:

Today’s sun should annihilate what little snow fell, but the heavy salt everywhere will persist by the looks of things, we need another New Years Eve style thunderstorm setup ASAP.

That will come without a doubt. Winter T-storms we can always count on now, any real snow enough to completely cover the grass when it’s cold enough for weeks, like pulling teeth. As soon as the warmth comes back, we can likely count on the cutters to come back or a SWFE that gives 6-10” to I-90 but some sleet to rain here. 

[donsutherland1]

Today's air mass has origins in eastern Greenland.

[the_other_guy]

It is bitter out! wow!

[Volcanic Winter]

39 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Today's air mass has origins in eastern Greenland.

This is so incredibly cool and interesting, where do you get / view this data? This is something I'd love to review from time to time.

[SACRUS]

 

24 / 8 static shock type day.  Low of 17 here.   Cold and windy the main story the next 3 days.  Watch how much precip (snow) can make it up with this saturday storm.  Beyond there cold overall and latest look has coldest airmass Jan 13 - 15 then reloading post the 20th into the northeast with trough digging in.

 

[donsutherland1]

2 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

This is so incredibly cool and interesting, where do you get / view this data? This is something I'd love to review from time to time.

Volcanic Winter,

You can find the Hysplit Model at: https://www.ready.noaa.gov/HYSPLIT_traj.php

[Volcanic Winter]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

Volcanic Winter,

You can find the Hysplit Model at: https://www.ready.noaa.gov/HYSPLIT_traj.php

Amazing, thank you so much!

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 64 (2012)
NYC: 64 (1907)
LGA: 62 (2012)
JFK: 61 (2012)


Lows:

EWR: 3 (2014)
NYC: 4 (2014)
LGA: 4 (2014)
JFK: 4 (2018)

Historical: 

1873 - A blizzard raged across the Great Plains. Many pioneers, unprepared for the cold and snow, perished in southwest Minnesota and northwestern Iowa. (David Ludlum)

1971 - The temperature at Hawley Lake, located southeast of McNary, AZ, plunged to 40 degrees below zero to establish a state record. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - A storm in the southwestern U.S. produced 30 inches of snow north of Zion National Park in southern Utah, with 18 inches reported at Cedar Canyon UT. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - A winter storm in the southeastern U.S. produced 27 inches of snow in the Bad Creek area of South Carolina, and claimed the lives of two million chickens in Alabama. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - A tornado in southern Illinois obliterated half the community of Allendale, injuring fifty perons and causing more than five million dollars damage, while thunderstorm winds gusting higher than 100 mph caused ten million dollars damage at Franklin KY. Twenty-five cities, from the Gulf coast to Michigan, reported record high temperatures for the date. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

1990 - A rapidly intensifying low pressure system and a vigorous cold front brought heavy rain and high winds to the Pacific Northwest. Two to five inches rains soaked western Washington and western Oregon, and winds gusting above 70 mph caused extensive damage. Wind gusts on Rattlesnake Ridge in Washington State reached 130 mph. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

2008: A rare, EF3 tornado tracked across southeastern Wisconsin. Experiencing a tornado in Wisconsin in January is extremely rare. In fact, it had only happened once between 1950 and 2007, when an F3 tornado affected parts of Green and Rock Counties on January 24, 1967. That tornado in South Central Wisconsin was part of a much larger outbreak of 30 tornadoes across mostly Iowa, Illinois, and Missouri. Wisconsin ended up with 30 tornadoes in 1967. 

[SACRUS]

 

2022

Jan 7 :

NYC: 5.8 inches of snow
EWR: 5.2"
LGA: 9.7"
JFK: 6.2"
 

[SACRUS]

20 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

Cold period daily 

 

Jan 4

EWR: 36 / 28 (-2)
NYC: 33 / 28 (-4)
LGA: 34 / 29 (-4)
JFK: 37 / 30 (0 E)

 

--------------------------------------------------

Jan 5:

EWR: 36 / 28 (-2)
NYC: 33 / 28 (-4)
LGA: 34 / 28 (-4)
JFK: 37 / 29 (-1)

-

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Jan 6:

EWR:   31 / 22 (-6)
NYC: 30 / 22 (-8)
LGA:  33 / 23 (-7)
JFK: 33 / 24 (-5)

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Big windchill factor day with highs below freezing and wind gusts over 40 mph.

such a reminder of what Januarys in the 80s were like.

`1. a little snow and ice on the ground, just enough to make you slip and fall.

2.  temperatures below freezing all day.

3. very windy and extreme wind chills.

[wdrag]

Following up on Don's post of several days ago regarding the disconnect in the BOM QPF vs snowfall; here is a reply from Pivotal that confirms Don's post of several days ago.   The is a frank response that I do not want shared as an insult-put down for anyone trying to improve our science.  Thank you for your respect on this particular post. 

 

Hi Walter,

 

Thanks for reaching out. The short answer is that there are sometimes internal inconsistencies within a single NBM run as you switch between forecast fields. The NWS NBM is a hodgepodge blend of numerous models and ensembles. Confusingly, the composition of which models are used in the blend changes depending on the forecast time and even the forecast field.

 

We do see the discrepancy you mentioned from the 19z/04 NBM run, and have verified that this discrepancy between the snowfall and QPF variables actually exists in the raw NBM data files from NCEP. For example, in the 6-hour period between forecast hours 53-59 of that run, the data file shows ~0 QPF on Long Island but up to ~1" of snowfall. Our best guess is that NOAA MDL uses a different blend of models to produce the QPF field vs. the snowfall field, and in this case, one or more models that were only used for snowfall had a more northward storm track. 

 

The official NBM documentation here should provide more details, although it is pretty dense and loosely organized: https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/mdl/nbm-documentation

 

It may also be worth reaching out directly to NOAA MDL if you want a definitive answer on how they compute a specific NBM variable at a specific forecast lead time. If you do reach out and they ask which NBM version we're using, you can let them know that we are using the publicly available grib2 files from NCEP.

 

Best,

PW Team

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, wdrag said:

 

 

Today through Thursday I84 corridor: Check for black ice this morning-residual moisture freezing. Windy and winter cold. Scattered northwest wind gusts 40-50 MPH! Isolated power outages especially Thursday when ridge gusts in PA/northern NJ and eastern NYS might reach 55 MPH!

 

 

January 19-22 mainly interior northeast USA just northwest of Interstate 95 from DC to Boston up through NYS and the Great Lakes. It becomes wet or white depending on location but storminess increases the last 10 days or so in January as temps moderate. This is when I think we have a decent chance of a snowstorm but timing is everything.  Modeling continues to open up the eastern half of the country to moderating temps (seasonable) and better chances for significant precipitation. 

 

 

 

Walt it sounds like you feel it might be just a little too mild for significant snowfall for NYC, Long Island, etc, post January 20th?

 

[wdrag]

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Walt it sounds like you feel it might be just a little too mild for significant snowfall for NYC, Long Island, etc, post January 20th?

 

Door opens for melting and rain as temps warm to normal. Timing.

[bluewave]

14 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

such a reminder of what Januarys in the 80s were like.

`1. a little snow and ice on the ground, just enough to make you slip and fall.

2.  temperatures below freezing all day.

3. very windy and extreme wind chills.

We are coming up on the 40th anniversary of one of the greatest Arctic outbreaks of the late 20th Century. It was one the most impressive displays from the Long Beach Boardwalk of Arctic Seasmoke plus multiple steamnadoes over the ocean. I was out on the boardwalk with -2° temperatures and 40 to 50 mph gusts. One of the few times I got to experience a below 0° in morning and afternoon temperatures in the single digits. We had a 6” snowstorm a few days earlier with highs below freezing ratio fluff. Then another 6” with a few events a week later. So our 80s Arctic outbreaks usually had at least some snow and not cold and dry.
 

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KJFK/date/1985-1-21
 

 

[SnoSki14]

13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

such a reminder of what Januarys in the 80s were like.

`1. a little snow and ice on the ground, just enough to make you slip and fall.

2.  temperatures below freezing all day.

3. very windy and extreme wind chills.

80s were a lot colder with more frequent snow events 

This a completely different era