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Records:

Highs:

EWR: 72 (2007)
NYC: 72 (2007)
LGA: 72 (2007)
JFKK : 71 (2007)


Lows:

EWR: 6 (2018)
NYC: -2 (1896)
LGA: 8 (2018)
JFK: 7 (2018)

Historical:

 

1880 - Seattle, WA, was in the midst of their worst snowstorm of record. Hundreds of barns were destroyed, and transportation was brought to a standstill, as the storm left the city buried under four feet of snow. (David Ludlum)

1884 - The temperature dipped to one degree below zero at Atlanta, GA. It marked the final day of a severe arctic outbreak in the South and Midwest. (David Ludlum)

 

1886: The "Great Blizzard of 1886" struck the Midwest with high winds, subzero temperatures, and heavy snowfall. These conditions caused as many as 100 deaths, and 80% of the cattle in Kansas perished.

1987 - A storm moving across the western U.S. spread heavy snow into the Central Rockies. Casper WY received 14 inches of snow in 24 hours, a January record for that location. Big Piney WY reported 17 inches of snow. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - It was a bad day for chickens. Heavy snow in Arkansas, with totals ranging up to 16 inches at Heber Springs, claimed the lives of 3.5 million chickens, and snow and ice up to three inches thick claimed the lives of another 1.75 million chickens in north central Texas. Up to 18 inches of snow blanketed Oklahoma, with Oklahoma City reporting a record 12 inches of snow in 24 hours. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - A "bonafide blizzard" ripped through south central and southeastern Idaho. Strong winds, gusting to 60 mph at the Fort Hall Indian Reservation, whipped the snow into drifts five feet high, and produced wind chill readings as cold as 35 degrees below zero. The blizzard prompted an Idaho Falls air controller to remark that "the snow is blowing so hard you can't see the fog".(National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Rain and gale force winds prevailed along the Northern Pacific Coast. Winds at Astoria OR gusted to 65 mph. Unseasonably warm weather prevailed over Florida. Five cities reported record high temperatures for the date, including Miami with a reading of 86 degrees. The hot spot in the nation was West Palm Beach with a high of 87 degrees. (National Weather Summary)

 

1996: A severe nor'easter paralyzed the East Coast from January 6 to the 8. In Washington D.C., this storm is also known as the "Great Furlough Storm" because it occurred during the 1996 federal government shutdown. Snowfall amounts from this event include 47 inches in Big Meadows, Virginia; 30.7" in Philadelphia; 27.8" in Newark; 24.6" at the Dulles International Airport; 24.2" in Trenton; 24" in Providence; 22.5" in Baltimore; 18.2" in Boston; 17.1" in D.C.; and 9.6" in Pittsburgh.

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4 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

Blocking refers to more than just an index value of the AO, as you know.

The issue with the Pacific blocking not being able to hold is more a Northern Stream function of lowering heights out West too much with the added shortwaves in the fast flow becoming kickers. A dominant STJ that is strong enough usually has better wave spacing allowing more amplitude and less suppression. Sometimes suppression can become an issue with El Niños which are too weak like 79-80.

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Just now, bluewave said:

The issue with the Pacific blocking not being able to hold is more a Northern Stream function of lowering heights out West too much with the added shortwaves in the fast flow becoming kickers. A dominant STJ that is strong enough usually has better wave spacing allowing more amplitude and less suppression. Sometimes suppression can become an issue with El Niños which are too weak like 79-80.

It can be argued that the kicker today is actually helping this lift a bit further north than it otherwise would be expected with how amplified this block/pattern is.

 

 

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16 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

It can be argued that the kicker today is actually helping this lift a bit further north than it otherwise would be expected with how amplified this block/pattern is.

 

 

We just tend to do better here when the NS backs off a bit. Most would be happy with a stronger STJ like we got in January 2016. Things just tend to fall into place easier when we have blocking and a strong STJ. Even La a Nina’s like 20-21 did fine with the NS easing up enough.

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1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 72 (2007)
NYC: 72 (2007)
LGA: 72 (2007)
JFKK : 71 (2007)


Lows:

EWR: 6 (2018)
NYC: -2 (1896)
LGA: 8 (2018)
JFK: 7 (2018)

Historical:

 

1880 - Seattle, WA, was in the midst of their worst snowstorm of record. Hundreds of barns were destroyed, and transportation was brought to a standstill, as the storm left the city buried under four feet of snow. (David Ludlum)

1884 - The temperature dipped to one degree below zero at Atlanta, GA. It marked the final day of a severe arctic outbreak in the South and Midwest. (David Ludlum)

 

1886: The "Great Blizzard of 1886" struck the Midwest with high winds, subzero temperatures, and heavy snowfall. These conditions caused as many as 100 deaths, and 80% of the cattle in Kansas perished.

1987 - A storm moving across the western U.S. spread heavy snow into the Central Rockies. Casper WY received 14 inches of snow in 24 hours, a January record for that location. Big Piney WY reported 17 inches of snow. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - It was a bad day for chickens. Heavy snow in Arkansas, with totals ranging up to 16 inches at Heber Springs, claimed the lives of 3.5 million chickens, and snow and ice up to three inches thick claimed the lives of another 1.75 million chickens in north central Texas. Up to 18 inches of snow blanketed Oklahoma, with Oklahoma City reporting a record 12 inches of snow in 24 hours. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - A "bonafide blizzard" ripped through south central and southeastern Idaho. Strong winds, gusting to 60 mph at the Fort Hall Indian Reservation, whipped the snow into drifts five feet high, and produced wind chill readings as cold as 35 degrees below zero. The blizzard prompted an Idaho Falls air controller to remark that "the snow is blowing so hard you can't see the fog".(National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Rain and gale force winds prevailed along the Northern Pacific Coast. Winds at Astoria OR gusted to 65 mph. Unseasonably warm weather prevailed over Florida. Five cities reported record high temperatures for the date, including Miami with a reading of 86 degrees. The hot spot in the nation was West Palm Beach with a high of 87 degrees. (National Weather Summary)

 

1996: A severe nor'easter paralyzed the East Coast from January 6 to the 8. In Washington D.C., this storm is also known as the "Great Furlough Storm" because it occurred during the 1996 federal government shutdown. Snowfall amounts from this event include 47 inches in Big Meadows, Virginia; 30.7" in Philadelphia; 27.8" in Newark; 24.6" at the Dulles International Airport; 24.2" in Trenton; 24" in Providence; 22.5" in Baltimore; 18.2" in Boston; 17.1" in D.C.; and 9.6" in Pittsburgh.

Long live January 1996!

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The issue with the Pacific blocking not being able to hold is more a Northern Stream function of lowering heights out West too much with the added shortwaves in the fast flow becoming kickers. A dominant STJ that is strong enough usually has better wave spacing allowing more amplitude and less suppression. Sometimes suppression can become an issue with El Niños which are too weak like 79-80.

this is why we need a super el nino to stop that northern stream

 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

We just tend to do better here when the NS backs off a bit. Most would be happy with a stronger STJ like we got in January 2016. Things just tend to fall into place easier when we have blocking and a strong STJ. Even La a Nina’s like 20-21 did fine with the NS easing up enough

 

You can also have a strong/juicy STJ in the scenario you're describing and absolutely crush the mid-atl and southeast when the block is too amped while the area gets skunked...

 

Which is the point.

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22 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

this is why we need a super el nino to stop that northern stream

 

 

17 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

You can also have a strong/juicy STJ in the scenario you're describing and absolutely crush the mid-atl and southeast when the block is too amped while the area gets skunked...

 

Which is the point.

But the -AO blocking threshold is much higher near or over -5 with a solid STJ than with the weaker -3.5 range we see today. 

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23 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

 

Cold period daily 

 

Jan 4

EWR: 36 / 28 (-2)
NYC: 33 / 28 (-4)
LGA: 34 / 29 (-4)
JFK: 37 / 30 (0 E)

 

--------------------------------------------------

Jan 5:

EWR: 36 / 28 (-2)
NYC: 33 / 28 (-4)
LGA: 34 / 28 (-4)
JFK: 37 / 29 (-1)

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3 hours ago, SACRUS said:

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 72 (2007)
NYC: 72 (2007)
LGA: 72 (2007)
JFKK : 71 (2007)


Lows:

EWR: 6 (2018)
NYC: -2 (1896)
LGA: 8 (2018)
JFK: 7 (2018)

Historical:

 

1880 - Seattle, WA, was in the midst of their worst snowstorm of record. Hundreds of barns were destroyed, and transportation was brought to a standstill, as the storm left the city buried under four feet of snow. (David Ludlum)

1884 - The temperature dipped to one degree below zero at Atlanta, GA. It marked the final day of a severe arctic outbreak in the South and Midwest. (David Ludlum)

 

1886: The "Great Blizzard of 1886" struck the Midwest with high winds, subzero temperatures, and heavy snowfall. These conditions caused as many as 100 deaths, and 80% of the cattle in Kansas perished.

1987 - A storm moving across the western U.S. spread heavy snow into the Central Rockies. Casper WY received 14 inches of snow in 24 hours, a January record for that location. Big Piney WY reported 17 inches of snow. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - It was a bad day for chickens. Heavy snow in Arkansas, with totals ranging up to 16 inches at Heber Springs, claimed the lives of 3.5 million chickens, and snow and ice up to three inches thick claimed the lives of another 1.75 million chickens in north central Texas. Up to 18 inches of snow blanketed Oklahoma, with Oklahoma City reporting a record 12 inches of snow in 24 hours. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - A "bonafide blizzard" ripped through south central and southeastern Idaho. Strong winds, gusting to 60 mph at the Fort Hall Indian Reservation, whipped the snow into drifts five feet high, and produced wind chill readings as cold as 35 degrees below zero. The blizzard prompted an Idaho Falls air controller to remark that "the snow is blowing so hard you can't see the fog".(National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Rain and gale force winds prevailed along the Northern Pacific Coast. Winds at Astoria OR gusted to 65 mph. Unseasonably warm weather prevailed over Florida. Five cities reported record high temperatures for the date, including Miami with a reading of 86 degrees. The hot spot in the nation was West Palm Beach with a high of 87 degrees. (National Weather Summary)

 

1996: A severe nor'easter paralyzed the East Coast from January 6 to the 8. In Washington D.C., this storm is also known as the "Great Furlough Storm" because it occurred during the 1996 federal government shutdown. Snowfall amounts from this event include 47 inches in Big Meadows, Virginia; 30.7" in Philadelphia; 27.8" in Newark; 24.6" at the Dulles International Airport; 24.2" in Trenton; 24" in Providence; 22.5" in Baltimore; 18.2" in Boston; 17.1" in D.C.; and 9.6" in Pittsburgh.

wild I forgot it was in the 70s on this date in 2007, 11 years after the big blizzard.

Second half of winter that year was much colder, even April's first 3 weeks were colder than January.

 

and then 11 years after that we had a record cold stretch lol.  There's that 11 year sunspot cycle again....

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6 hours ago, bluewave said:

The EPS took a step toward the GEFS with the return of the Southeast Ridge by around January 20th. So we could see an end to this suppression pattern around then. Could also be our first 50° day since January 1st. 
 

New Euro run similar to GEFS

IMG_2652.thumb.png.b520658f0bd2498ea81d90fd665f7966.png

Old run

IMG_2651.thumb.png.b38db1c045cf9e3aeda5784734ba19ad.png

New GEFS run

IMG_2653.thumb.png.89bca714d4b0da260c488029c4610f56.png

 

EPS went back to the ridge in the west and trough in the east today. 

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4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Delmarva and cape May ended up doing better then the dca region 

 

1pm airport measurements

BWI: 5.8

DCA: 5.5

IAD: 4.6

High res models probably overplayed the banding but even back into the OH Valley/Midwest there was some underperforming in some spots and overperforming in others

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9 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

EPS went back to the ridge in the west and trough in the east today. 

Subtle differences like how much -AO blocking lingers and whether we can hold some Baja ridging will probably determine the mean trough axis location at that time.

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Just now, LibertyBell said:

Notice how Baltimore has more than DC... it's because DC mixed over for awhile.

DC is just a snow hole in general. I’d hate to live there and expect a snowier outcome. And there’s always that weenie 700mb fronto area that likes to set up north of where models have. Even helped us to a small extent. 

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6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Subtle differences like how much -AO blocking lingers and whether we can hold some Baja ridging will probably determine the mean trough axis location at that time.

GEFS seems like all winter it wants to keep yanking things too far west.  I see the GEPS is now more east today as well.  I wonder if the NAO/AO just tank again and that results in a trof that extends to the east coast as the SER won't develop

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Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

GEFS seems like all winter it wants to keep yanking things too far west.  I see the GEPS is now more east today as well.  I wonder if the NAO/AO just tank again and that results in a trof that extends to the east coast as the SER won't develop

We really need at least a transient SER in order to not suppress the overrunning zone too far south with colder air in Canada for the first time this winter. Maybe we get a compromise between the GEFS and EPS. A more well defined lead shortwave which cuts and drags in cold air behind. Then hopefully a serviceable baroclinic zone nearby for overrunning potential.

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