January 2025

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Irish said:

So true, however, this is just the beginning. I think we have several chances lining up as we move through January and have read as much. 

I think we'll have more chances if one of these actually hits us.  In my experience snow begets more snow.  A feedback mechanism.

[jm1220]

8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Normally we would still see snowy la ninas if they came right after an el nino because the subtropical jet would still be there (a la 95-96 and 10-11) but last year's el nino didn't have a normal el nino subtropical jet either.

 

We definitely had the subtropical jet last winter. We had a record rainiest Dec-Feb. But the northern stream acted very much Nina with the fast Pacific flow continuing and we couldn't access any cold air when needed. We had one window in Feb when there was some cold air which is when we had most of our snow. 

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

We definitely had the subtropical jet last winter. We had a record rainiest Dec-Feb. But the northern stream acted very much Nina with the fast Pacific flow continuing and we couldn't access any cold air when needed. We had one window in Feb when there was some cold air which is when we had most of our snow. 

Yes, I think JFK capitalized because it was closest to that west to east band of heavy snow, got a surprise 6 inch snowstorm here.

But that fast pac flow might be the reason this area runs into multiyear snow droughts even when there's an el nino.  It explains the 80s.  Do we need a super strong el nino to neutralize the Pacific Jet?

[Franklin0529]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Euro AI came west

There's a thread for this

[Allsnow]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

I had an earlier post today which discussed NYC needing KU benchmark storms to reach average to above average seasonal snowfall. The one time this worked since 18-19 for NYC was 20-21 which was the only above average snowfall season last 6 years. So the frequent cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks with the stronger Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet has been working against normal to above normal snowfall in NYC. All we know so far is that this has carried over into December and early January again this year. Too early to tell if it will continue beyond early January and into the next several winters. So we need to take it one step at a time. 

I am guessing this shift in the Pacific Jet is related to all the record marine heatwaves in the Pacific Basin which have appeared since 18-19. This faster Pacific Jet is also leading to changes in the 500mb patterns. Some of these changes have actually been to the benefit of the mid-Atlantic as we are seeing the next few days. Plus it’s easier for regions with traditionally lower average seasonal snowfall to get close to average with just one or two big snowstorms.

Thanks for the response 

[MJO812]

Lol

[bluewave]

The EPS took a step toward the GEFS with the return of the Southeast Ridge by around January 20th. So we could see an end to this suppression pattern around then. Could also be our first 50° day since January 1st. 
 

New Euro run similar to GEFS

Old run

New GEFS run

 

[SnoSki14]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The EPS took a step toward the GEFS with the return of the Southeast Ridge by around January 20th. So we could see an end to this suppression pattern around then. Could also be our first 50° day since January 1st. 
 

New Euro run similar to GEFS

Old run

New GEFS run

 

From suppression to cutters. Lovely. 

Gotta watch the Hudson bay blocking as that has tended to trend stronger too and could hold back SE ridge 

[psv88]

17 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The EPS took a step toward the GEFS with the return of the Southeast Ridge by around January 20th. So we could see an end to this suppression pattern around then. Could also be our first 50° day since January 1st. 
 

New Euro run similar to GEFS

Old run

New GEFS run

 

Good. Bring back the warmth if we aren’t going to snow. Screw this cold and dry. 

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

From suppression to cutters. Lovely. 

Gotta watch the Hudson bay blocking as that has tended to trend stronger too and could hold back SE ridge 

We want a Southeast Ridge since most of the NYC 4”+ snowfalls this time of year have occurred right before or after a 50° day. Very tough to generate snow here with steady below average cold and no warm ups. The cold that starts building out West with the -PNA could be more impressive than what we will see over the next few weeks. So maybe we get a big cutter and a 50° day followed by a cool down and overrunning hugger snowfall event with more Arctic air available in Canada.

Canada finally getting getting colder

 

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Good. Bring back the warmth if we aren’t going to snow. Screw this cold and dry. 

Totally agree. Get this useless dry cold out of here. Bare ground in winter is at least more tolerable with bearable conditions outside. Otherwise it’s just misery. 

[Allsnow]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We want a Southeast Ridge since most of the NYC 4”+ snowfalls this time of year have occurred right before or after a 50° day. Very tough to generate snow here with steady below average cold and no warm ups. The cold that starts building out West with the -PNA could be more impressive than what we will see over the next few weeks. So maybe we get a big cutter and a 50° day followed by a cool down and overrunning hugger snowfall event with more Arctic air available in Canada.

Canada finally getting getting colder

 

Agreed. I’ll take my chances with a cold Canada with perhaps lingering blocking 

[SnoSki14]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Agreed. I’ll take my chances with a cold Canada with perhaps lingering blocking 

Would be nice if the 11-12th threat could materialize otherwise we're going into late Jan with little to show for it despite BN temperatures 

[bluewave]

4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Agreed. I’ll take my chances with a cold Canada with perhaps lingering blocking 

The GEFS generates some impressive Arctic air to our West for a week 2 ensemble mean. 

 

[Allsnow]

5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Would be nice if the 11-12th threat could materialize otherwise we're going into late Jan with little to show for it despite BN temperatures 

Finally get a cold winter and nothing to show for it in the snow department. 
 

KC 11 yesterday 

DCA up to 5 already 

[jm1220]

22 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Finally get a cold winter and nothing to show for it in the snow department. 
 

KC 11 yesterday 

DCA up to 5 already 

If you were to tell me that by 1/10 in a Nina winter that DC would have the most snow of the major NE metros I would crack up. 

[Dark Star]

9 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

If you were to tell me that by 1/10 in a Nina winter that DC would have the most snow of the major NE metros I would crack up. 

Garwood received 4.0" of the white stuff during December...

[LibertyBell]

11 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

If you were to tell me that by 1/10 in a Nina winter that DC would have the most snow of the major NE metros I would crack up. 

might as well stick 88-89 and 89-90 in the analog list lol

 

[Allsnow]

15 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

If you were to tell me that by 1/10 in a Nina winter that DC would have the most snow of the major NE metros I would crack up. 

Disappointing 

 

We might have missed our window on a great Nina winter with how good the pac has been since December 

[Brian5671]

52 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Finally get a cold winter and nothing to show for it in the snow department. 
 

KC 11 yesterday 

DCA up to 5 already 

Still early but I get it...stinks around here

[jm1220]

10 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Disappointing 

 

We might have missed our window on a great Nina winter with how good the pac has been since December 

I have to think we get something in the end but the fast Pacific pattern might ruin it again. Once we go back to cutters and SE ridge, that obviously shuts off our chances. There always seems to be something wrong or off with every setup we get even in a colder regime and no, that can’t all just be bad luck. It seems to be the northern stream and fast Pacific just flinging crap to interfere with anything trying to dig and setup, and moving things along too fast. 

[NittanyWx]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

I have to think we get something in the end but the fast Pacific pattern might ruin it again. Once we go back to cutters and SE ridge, that obviously shuts off our chances. There always seems to be something wrong or off with every setup we get even in a colder regime and no, that can’t all just be bad luck. It seems to be the northern stream and fast Pacific just flinging crap to interfere with anything trying to dig and setup, and moving things along too fast. 

The issue with this current setup is much more related to block amplification than anything else.

[bluewave]

7 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

The issue with this current setup is much more related to block amplification than anything else.

Block amplification issues usually occur with a dominant Northern Stream. Plus this block isn’t that strong. Remember back in 2010 with the record STJ and wall to wall -3 to -5 -AO days how the systems had no trouble eventually coming north after 2-6-10. Pure -AO suppression is rare with a strong enough STJ. It only really happened once on 2-6-10. But that was one of the strongest -AOs on record. This event is much weaker. Then the snows eventually came north so only one system was blocked.

[Allsnow]

6 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

The issue with this current setup is much more related to block amplification than anything else.

Yes, the position of the tpv today is not good 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Block amplification issues usually occur with a dominant Northern Stream. Plus this block isn’t that strong. Remember back in 2010 with the record STJ and wall to wall -3 to -5 -AO days how the systems had no trouble coming north. Pure -AO suppression is rare with a strong enough STJ. It only really happened once on 2-6-10. But that was one of the strongest -AOs on record. This event is much weaker. Then the snows eventually came north so only one system was blocked.

did we ever figure out why the block was so strong in 2009-10 and 2010-11 and is that cyclic or a one off?  The interesting thing is we've had very strong blocks before that did not pay off with a lot of snow....

[NittanyWx]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Block amplification issues usually occur with a dominant Northern Stream. Plus this block isn’t that strong. Remember back in 2010 with the record STJ and wall to wall -3 to -5 -AO days how the systems had no trouble eventually coming north after 2-6-10. Pure -AO suppression is rare with a strong enough STJ. It only really happened once on 2-6-10. But that was one of the strongest -AOs on record. This event is much weaker. Then the snows eventually came north so only one system was blocked.

Blocking refers to more than just an index value of the AO, as you know.

[SACRUS]

 

27 / 18 light snow (coating).  Cold windy week in the (-5 to - 8 daily range).  Overall cold through the 20th, we'll see if any of the precip can work its way north in a meaningful way later this week and coming weekend.

 

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Block amplification issues usually occur with a dominant Northern Stream. Plus this block isn’t that strong. Remember back in 2010 with the record STJ and wall to wall -3 to -5 -AO days how the systems had no trouble coming north. Pure -AO suppression is rare with a strong enough STJ. It only really happened once on 2-6-10. But that was one of the strongest -AOs on record. This event is much weaker. Then the snows eventually came north so only one system was blocked.

You don’t think the tpv position really limits how north the system can get today? 

[LibertyBell]

11 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I have to think we get something in the end but the fast Pacific pattern might ruin it again. Once we go back to cutters and SE ridge, that obviously shuts off our chances. There always seems to be something wrong or off with every setup we get even in a colder regime and no, that can’t all just be bad luck. It seems to be the northern stream and fast Pacific just flinging crap to interfere with anything trying to dig and setup, and moving things along too fast. 

might be those SST anomalies and marine heatwaves at work to speed up the northern stream.

A super el nino would probably upend this entire awful pattern.

[NittanyWx]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

You don’t think the tpv position really limits how north the system can get today? 

Certainly one of the more dominant features leading to suppression in my opinion.