January 2025

[LibertyBell]

35 minutes ago, bluewave said:

March 2013 to 2019 was the exception rather than the rule in NYC. 
 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	8.4	8.4
2013	7.3	7.3
2014	0.1	0.1
2015	18.6	18.6
2016	0.9	0.9
2017	9.7	9.7
2018	11.6	11.6
2019	10.4	10.4

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	0.1	0.1
2020	T	T
2021	T	T
2022	0.4	0.4
2023	0.1	0.1
2024	T	T

 

it's why I liked 14-15 so much, the historically cold February and the very snowy March that did not disappoint!

 

[jm1220]

8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

In addition to that, correct me if I'm wrong Don, but in la ninas you typically have smaller snow shields and more thread the needle events?  January 1996 was an obvious exception, but in most la ninas I remember the area that gets hit with heavy snow is usually small.

DCA to BOS heavy snowfalls typically occur in el ninos?

El Niño probably has the best chance of it since you want to time the charged up STJ with cold enough air. PDII in 2003 was an El Niño storm that nailed all 4 metros. Jan 2016 was another that was very close to. You want a big STJ infusion into a deep cold air dome for a massive overrunning event, and some suppressive confluence but not overpowering like today’s. Or a fluke coastal storm like some in Feb 1996 that tracked in a way that hit all 4 metros. But generally we have the good New England patterns and good Mid Atlantic. This upcoming storm was fairly easy to call 4 days out as one that would favor DC-this is a bread and butter setup for them. Boston has their bread and butter setups like Jan 2022 or Jan-Feb 2015. We don’t have an easy to call from days out setup for snow for NYC since we’re at the transition zone between New England and Mid Atlantic. NYC I think by far is the hardest to forecast for in winter storms generally because we always have to edge our way into any major storm. I can’t think of the last one that wasn’t some kind of nail biter. 2/1/21 might be one that was easier to call as a hit for us. 

[SnoSki14]

10 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Understandable. 
 

but @bluewaveis saying its because of CC with the fast northern stream and pac. Which is different than saying this h5 look produces for the mid Atlantic historically. 
 

That’s why I asked the question. If cc is causing flaws in the ointment then we shouldn’t expect much snow in the coming years 

At this point one of our typically crappiest pattern will be the one that gives us a HECS

And a moderate Nino with strong blocking is probably ideal for us. Strong STJ with cold air flowing down. 

Unfortunately we've been dealing with the opposite aka Nina dominated pattern

[White Gorilla]

11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

It proved the old saying about winters usually sucking if you get a snowstorm in November lol

I am always curious why that is so often the case 

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

El Niño probably has the best chance of it since you want to time the charged up STJ with cold enough air. PDII in 2003 was an El Niño storm that nailed all 4 metros. Jan 2016 was another that was very close to. You want a big STJ infusion into a deep cold air dome for a massive overrunning event, and some suppressive confluence but not overpowering like today’s. Or a fluke coastal storm like some in Feb 1996 that tracked in a way that hit all 4 metros. But generally we have the good New England patterns and good Mid Atlantic. This upcoming storm was fairly easy to call 4 days out as one that would favor DC-this is a bread and butter setup for them. Boston has their bread and butter setups like Jan 2022 or Jan-Feb 2015. We don’t have an easy to call from days out setup for snow for NYC since we’re at the transition zone between New England and Mid Atlantic. NYC I think by far is the hardest to forecast for in winter storms generally because we always have to edge our way into any major storm. I can’t think of the last one that wasn’t some kind of nail biter. 2/1/21 might be one that was easier to call as a hit for us. 

I think 03-04 was a special winter because it was one of the rare NYC winters, it wasn't particularly great north or south of us.  Was that the winter when NYC got more snow than either Boston or Worcester or am I thinking of a different one?

 

Us being tucked into the coast also makes us somewhat different from southern NE.  Eastern Suffolk county has more of a southern NE type of winter climate.

 

 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, White Gorilla said:

I am always curious why that is so often the case 

We tried to figure it out a few years ago when it last happened and I believe we concluded that the pattern needs a few weeks to recover and by the time it does December is done.

[LibertyBell]

10 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

El Niño probably has the best chance of it since you want to time the charged up STJ with cold enough air. PDII in 2003 was an El Niño storm that nailed all 4 metros. Jan 2016 was another that was very close to. You want a big STJ infusion into a deep cold air dome for a massive overrunning event, and some suppressive confluence but not overpowering like today’s. Or a fluke coastal storm like some in Feb 1996 that tracked in a way that hit all 4 metros. But generally we have the good New England patterns and good Mid Atlantic. This upcoming storm was fairly easy to call 4 days out as one that would favor DC-this is a bread and butter setup for them. Boston has their bread and butter setups like Jan 2022 or Jan-Feb 2015. We don’t have an easy to call from days out setup for snow for NYC since we’re at the transition zone between New England and Mid Atlantic. NYC I think by far is the hardest to forecast for in winter storms generally because we always have to edge our way into any major storm. I can’t think of the last one that wasn’t some kind of nail biter. 2/1/21 might be one that was easier to call as a hit for us. 

and then there are the rare *hook and ladder* stemwinder kind of storms..... do you remember these, JM? They seem to have become more rare now..... in these, DC through PHL gets hit hard and BOS also gets hit hard but NYC gets a minimal amount of snow.  I think Vet's Day 1987 was this kind of storm? If there's a more recent example I don't remember, maybe January 1999?

 

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I think 03-04 was a special winter because it was one of the rare NYC winters, it wasn't particularly great north or south of us.  Was that the winter when NYC got more snow than either Boston or Worcester or am I thinking of a different one?

 

Us being tucked into the coast also makes us somewhat different from southern NE.  Eastern Suffolk county has more of a southern NE type of winter climate.

 

 

In 03-04 NYC did better than Boston by an inch or two if not mistaken. That’s really the last winter I can think of where like you said, I-80 was hit pretty good by a few storms. We had the bitter cold Jan clipper with heavy snow in single digits and a nice 8-12” type event in late Jan that both missed Boston. NYC seems to do better than Boston maybe 2-3x per decade. 2015-16 NYC did better, and 2020-21 was tied. 

[MJO812]

We usually get a big storm when the teleconnections go the other way and that is going to happen next week.

[SACRUS]

 

[bkviking]

1 hour ago, wishcast_hater said:

That’s why I blocked him. Unfortunately, I still see his posts when others quote him.


.

Snowman19 has a kind of purpose. To provide verifiable climatic conditions as antipodes to our snow-weenie dreams. 
He is legit enough to be able to add useful counter-balance to groupthink. 
 

Agree or disagree - it is highly useful to have- at least to keep in back of mind. His main contribution is in La Nina thread in main forum but he really does offer at least a counter thought to everyone else. Even if it is warm biased. 

[wdrag]

Not thinking any thread for 1/11ish tonight...and if it starts tomorrow, probably hold off til dinner time.   Mainly NC-Delmarva,  at least until the Canadian joins the intermittent fray up here on LI. 

[North and West]

Snowman19 has a kind of purpose. To provide verifiable climatic conditions as antipodes to our snow-weenie dreams. 
He is legit enough to be able to add useful counter-balance to groupthink. 
 
Agree or disagree - it is highly useful to have- at least to keep in back of mind. His main contribution is in La Nina thread in main forum but he really does offer at least a counter thought to everyone else. Even if it is warm biased. 

Doesn’t it feel like the purpose is to just make others who disagree with him feel bad? It just seems played out and the same show every season.

It’s good to have to counter-weights; it’s tiring to have condescension.


.

[donsutherland1]

An extended period of generally below normal temperatures is underway in the New York City area. Although this cold regime will likely extend through at least mid-month, the kind of severe cold that produces minimum temperatures below 10° in the Philadelphia to New York City areas is unlikely during that period. The cold could still peak with readings dropping into the teens and several subfreezing highs.

A storm will bring parts of the Middle Atlantic region a moderate to locally significant snowfall tonight into tomorrow. Parts of the region will see 4"-8" of snow with locally higher amounts. The focus of the heaviest snows favors the Washington-Baltimore-Annapolis areas.

Only minor adjustments were made to the estimated snowfall totals, as the block and confluence have been well-modeled for several days.

Final snowfall estimates:

Atlantic City: 4"-8"
Baltimore: 4"-8"
Islip: 0.5" or less (possibly no measurable snow)
New York City: 0.5" or less (possibly no measurable snow)
Newark: 0.5" or less
Philadelphia: 2"-4"
Richmond: 1"-3"
Washington, DC: 4"-8"

This kind of limited focus storm is far more common than storms that bring an extensive significant snowfall from Richmond to Boston. Since 1895, 429 storms have brought 6" or more snowfall to at least one of the following cities: Baltimore, Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Richmond, or Washington, DC. Just 11 (2.6%) brought 6" or more snow to all six of those cities. In terms of even larger snowfalls, just three (0.7%) legendary storms brought 10" or more snowfall to each of those cities: February 11-14, 1899, February 10-12, 1983, and January 6-8, 1996.

The second and third weeks of January will likely feature widespread cold anomalies in much of the eastern half of the CONUS and Canada south of the Hudson and James Bays. The potential exists for widespread cold anomalies of 6°-10° below normal during that week in parts of that region, particularly the Southeast. Those anomalies will likely result more from the prolonged nature of the cold than its severity. However, notable exceptions could be areas with fresh snow cover that experience strong radiational cooling.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around December 25. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.10°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.53°C. Neutral ENSO conditions may still evolve into a La Niña event during the winter. Uncertainty as to whether a La Niña will actually develop persists. On the December 19 outlook, 56% of dynamical models but 0% of the statistical models forecast the development of a La Niña.

The SOI was +5.80 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -3.577 today.

 

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

 

What pattern will work for snow now in NYC? Certainly, KC-dca isn’t complaining about the fast northern stream today. Respectfully, if we have flaws in all these h5 looks now then nyc-bos shouldn’t expect to see much snow in the coming winters 

Here are some clusters that provide insight into patterns that can deliver a significant snowfall to NYC:

[Stormlover74]

Gfs incoming

[White Gorilla]

11 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

An extended period of generally below normal temperatures is underway in the New York City area. Although this cold regime will likely extend through at least mid-month, the kind of severe cold that produces minimum temperatures below 10° in the Philadelphia to New York City areas is unlikely during that period. The cold could still peak with readings dropping into the teens and several subfreezing highs.

A storm will bring parts of the Middle Atlantic region a moderate to locally significant snowfall tonight into tomorrow. Parts of the region will see 4"-8" of snow with locally higher amounts. The focus of the heaviest snows favors the Washington-Baltimore-Annapolis areas.

Only minor adjustments were made to the estimated snowfall totals, as the block and confluence have been well-modeled for several days.

Final snowfall estimates:

Atlantic City: 4"-8"
Baltimore: 4"-8"
Islip: 0.5" or less (possibly no measurable snow)
New York City: 0.5" or less (possibly no measurable snow)
Newark: 0.5" or less
Philadelphia: 2"-4"
Richmond: 1"-3"
Washington, DC: 4"-8"

This kind of limited focus storm is far more common than storms that bring an extensive significant snowfall from Richmond to Boston. Since 1895, 429 storms have brought 6" or more snowfall to at least one of the following cities: Baltimore, Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Richmond, or Washington, DC. Just 11 (2.6%) brought 6" or more snow to all six of those cities. In terms of even larger snowfalls, just three (0.7%) legendary storms brought 10" or more snowfall to each of those cities: February 11-14, 1899, February 10-12, 1983, and January 6-8, 1996.

The second and third weeks of January will likely feature widespread cold anomalies in much of the eastern half of the CONUS and Canada south of the Hudson and James Bays. The potential exists for widespread cold anomalies of 6°-10° below normal during that week in parts of that region, particularly the Southeast. Those anomalies will likely result more from the prolonged nature of the cold than its severity. However, notable exceptions could be areas with fresh snow cover that experience strong radiational cooling.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around December 25. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.10°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.53°C. Neutral ENSO conditions may still evolve into a La Niña event during the winter. Uncertainty as to whether a La Niña will actually develop persists. On the December 19 outlook, 56% of dynamical models but 0% of the statistical models forecast the development of a La Niña.

The SOI was +5.80 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -3.577 today.

 

Happy for the weenies down there.  They’ve been really starving for many years if I am not mistaken.

[Yaz]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Gfs incoming

 

[SI Mailman]

18z with a monster coming up from the gulf

[Stormlover74]

Holy crap

[Stormlover74]

[Yaz]

[SI Mailman]

[Stormlover74]

DC gets 3 feet for the week 

[Yaz]

Just now, Yaz said:

GFS is all over the place

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Understandable. 
 

but @bluewaveis saying its because of CC with the fast northern stream and pac. Which is different than saying this h5 look produces for the mid Atlantic historically. 
 

That’s why I asked the question. If cc is causing flaws in the ointment then we shouldn’t expect much snow in the coming years 

There is a slowly building body of literature suggesting that CC impacts the North Pacific Jet. At present, the literature does not appear to rule out favorable winter configurations, but there is a shorter winter-season jet and earlier transition to spring/summer states. Over the long-term, there will likely be a structural decline in seasonal snowfall from warming, as has occurred from DCA southward. However, there will still be a lot of interannual and intraseasonal variability, so opportunities for big snowstorms and snowy seasons will still exist for the forseeable future.

[ILoveWinter]

2 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

Happy for the weenies down there.  They’ve been really starving for many years if I am not mistaken.

Same with us within the very immediate metro, it’s been a few years since a solid moderate snowfall. While it has snowed many times, it hasn’t always accumulated.

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, Allsnow said:

 

What pattern will work for snow now in NYC? Certainly, KC-dca isn’t complaining about the fast northern stream today. Respectfully, if we have flaws in all these h5 looks now then nyc-bos shouldn’t expect to see much snow in the coming winters 

I had an earlier post today which discussed NYC needing KU benchmark storms to reach average to above average seasonal snowfall. The one time this worked since 18-19 for NYC was 20-21 which was the only above average snowfall season last 6 years. So the frequent cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks with the stronger Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet has been working against normal to above normal snowfall in NYC. All we know so far is that this has carried over into December and early January again this year. Too early to tell if it will continue beyond early January and into the next several winters. So we need to take it one step at a time. 

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Understandable. 
 

but @bluewaveis saying its because of CC with the fast northern stream and pac. Which is different than saying this h5 look produces for the mid Atlantic historically. 
 

That’s why I asked the question. If cc is causing flaws in the ointment then we shouldn’t expect much snow in the coming years 

I am guessing this shift in the Pacific Jet is related to all the record marine heatwaves in the Pacific Basin which have appeared since 18-19. This faster Pacific Jet is also leading to changes in the 500mb patterns. Some of these changes have actually been to the benefit of the mid-Atlantic as we are seeing the next few days. Plus it’s easier for regions with traditionally lower average seasonal snowfall to get close to average with just one or two big snowstorms.

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

In addition to that, correct me if I'm wrong Don, but in la ninas you typically have smaller snow shields and more thread the needle events?  January 1996 was an obvious exception, but in most la ninas I remember the area that gets hit with heavy snow is usually small.

DCA to BOS heavy snowfalls typically occur in el ninos?

The far more active subtropical jet during El Niño events facilitates the development of Miller A storms. During La Niña's the subtropical jet is less impactful and often quiet. It's a non-factor with the current storm. Phased solutions and Miller B transitions are more challenging dynamically.

[cleetussnow]

Hell yes