qg_omega Posted Sunday at 04:27 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:27 PM 3 minutes ago, jm1220 said: My concern is that the models that do phase seem to blow it up too far west and cause it to hug the coast and it ends up another 3/14/17. We want it a little more progressive so that the phase and trough are 75-100 miles further east. The non-phased ones are maybe a period of light snow as it gets booted out to sea. The 6z GFS would be the worst imaginable kick in the balls east of NYC-too far north for tomorrow's event to a hugger mostly rain. We want a full phase and take our chances with ptype. Take a bomb all day over a scraper but scraper is very likely or complete miss given the pattern 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted Sunday at 04:28 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:28 PM Just now, Stormlover74 said: Huge bust. Blizzard warnings for the city Like 2015 I do not consider this a bust. In 2015 I was supposed to get almost 3 ft and got 7 inches, and in this event was supposed to get one to two feet and got nine and a half inches. Disappointments but not a bust, even the city had a six to eight event out of this. To me a bust is like what Philadelphia was supposed to get in 2015 which was 6 to 12 inches and got zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted Sunday at 04:28 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:28 PM Just now, EastonSN+ said: I would sign up for a repeat of that in a heartbeat. You and any NW posters certainly. I had maybe 3" that turned to heavy rain and by the end it was gone. It's one of the most infuriating storms I lived through since there was hope even 24 hours out that east of NYC could salvage something but it ticked NW at the very end. So no, that's not something I want happening again lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted Sunday at 04:38 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:38 PM 9 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Like 2015 I do not consider this a bust. In 2015 I was supposed to get almost 3 ft and got 7 inches, and in this event was supposed to get one to two feet and got nine and a half inches. Disappointments but not a bust, even the city had a six to eight event out of this. To me a bust is like what Philadelphia was supposed to get in 2015 which was 6 to 12 inches and got zero. Sleet wasn't even in my forecast and I mixed almost immediately. Still got a nice storm out of it but half what was expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted Sunday at 04:42 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:42 PM 13 minutes ago, jm1220 said: You and any NW posters certainly. I had maybe 3" that turned to heavy rain and by the end it was gone. It's one of the most infuriating storms I lived through since there was hope even 24 hours out that east of NYC could salvage something but it ticked NW at the very end. So no, that's not something I want happening again lol. That was awful. Just sleet in my area. Turned over very quickly. Rule of thumb is March does not deliver more than 11 inches in the modern era, and no less than Mitch Volk weighed in the night before and indicated he wasn't buying the deep snows for us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted Sunday at 04:46 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:46 PM 3 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: That was awful. Just sleet in my area. Turned over very quickly. Rule of thumb is March does not deliver more than 11 inches in the modern era, and no less than Mitch Volk weighed in the night before and indicated he wasn't buying the deep snows for us. Yeah but where? Green brook is very close by and got 18" in the March 2018 storm. Just a tiny bit of elevation was the difference between 5 and 20" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted Sunday at 04:48 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:48 PM Just now, Stormlover74 said: Yeah but where? Green brook is very close by and got 18" in the March 2018 storm. Just a tiny bit of elevation was the difference between 5 and 20" i got a foot from that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted Sunday at 04:49 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:49 PM I think it's worth mentioning that Central Park only had 4 one foot plus snow storms in March in recorded history. Getting a KU 1-ft Plus in March has never been common in Central Park, ever. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Sunday at 04:49 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:49 PM 3 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: What's hilarious is my childhood vacation spot Ocean City Maryland is going to do great with respect to average snowfall once again this year. Even they are doing better than us compared to average. They are in a better position for the west to east track that typically exits near the Virginia capes. I remember seeing a map of typical tracks storms take that go west to east and they're well located for that track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Sunday at 04:49 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:49 PM 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: Yeah but where? Green brook is very close by and got 18" in the March 2018 storm. Just a tiny bit of elevation was the difference between 5 and 20" Over a foot here in Metuchen during the last storm in March 2018 March 2017 we kept switching between sleet/snow which ended in 6 of concrete. Can’t imagine it was much different in Woodbridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Sunday at 04:50 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:50 PM 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: I think it's worth mentioning that Central Park only had 4 one foot plus snow storms in March in recorded history. Getting a KU 1-ft Plus in March has never been common in Central Park, ever. and it hasn't happened in my lifetime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted Sunday at 04:51 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:51 PM 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Yeah but where? Green brook is very close by and got 18" in the March 2018 storm. Just a tiny bit of elevation was the difference between 5 and 20" He was talking NYC, mostly Manhattan really, but it's been pretty true for my area as well. Green Brook is pretty far out, and the elevation matters there; I have seen snow at Washington Rock but not down at 22. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Sunday at 04:54 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:54 PM 27 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Huge bust. Blizzard warnings for the city we had blizzard warnings in the city? I don't remember that. I remember 6-8 inches here which is a very good storm for March. Can't really expect more than that in March, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted Sunday at 04:54 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:54 PM 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Over a foot here in Metuchen during the last storm in March 2018 March 2017 we kept switching between sleet/snow which ended in 6 of concrete. Can’t imagine it was much different in Woodbridge It was the only one that March that hit our area good, but I don't think Woodbridge managed more than a foot. I think we measured around 10 and change. Which is a good storm any time in my book. Two footers are rare, and lethal. Even last Feb I had to break out the pack boots and get the big snowblower out of mothballs, and that was just under a foot. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted Sunday at 04:54 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:54 PM 3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: and it hasn't happened in my lifetime. Only four times in recorded history, and one of them was 1888 one of the best of all time. I would pay almost anything to have a repeat of 1888 now. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted Sunday at 04:55 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:55 PM 30 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Euro is OTS You are talking about tomorrow we have been talking about next weekend not tomorrow. WX/PT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted Sunday at 04:57 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:57 PM On 12/30/2024 at 11:23 AM, forkyfork said: it took over a month of blocking to get boxing day. same with dec 2000 bump. the blocking is still there through the end of the ensembles. patience 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Sunday at 04:57 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:57 PM 1 hour ago, jm1220 said: We're still many years or decades away from CC being the primary driver destroying snow threats. The patterns matter much more. When DC to Richmond and down to Ocean City MD have perfect tracks, "cold" pattern for then and no snow is when I'd worry. DC has lowered their snow average over the last 20 years and ours went up largely because the patterns/storm evolutions have been a lot more favorable from 2000-18 for this area through much of New England with more Miller B type storms. Since late 2018 we're seeing serious regression which we're due for and the pattern shift to very fast Pacific flow that our area is almost uniquely situated for the worst outcomes-too suppressed like tomorrow, late bloomer which hits Boston, or SWFE/cutter. What CC is likely doing is creating these long lasting marine heatwaves that then alter the patterns-the MJO constantly being in phase 4-6 (doesn't seem to be the case this winter) and essentially permanent Nina effects because of the boiling W PAC that then charges up the Pacific jet, likely has something to do with CC. This is very similar to what happened in the late 80s, the last three years are a good match for that overall. Maybe the fast Pac hurt us back then too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted Sunday at 04:59 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:59 PM 9 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Over a foot here in Metuchen during the last storm in March 2018 March 2017 we kept switching between sleet/snow which ended in 6 of concrete. Can’t imagine it was much different in Woodbridge 14" here from that late March 2018 storm. Wintry mix all day long then absolutely ripping once the sun set. 3-4"/hr out of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Sunday at 05:00 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:00 PM 1 hour ago, wdrag said: Seasonal since 11/20 via CoCoRaHs obs: If interested click for clarity. I'm surprised that Mt Pocono has 30.5 inches while the southern part of the same county only has 6 inches lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Sunday at 05:01 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:01 PM 5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Only four times in recorded history, and one of them was 1888 one of the best of all time. I would pay almost anything to have a repeat of 1888 now. But you're in SE CT right? You would be better off near New Haven, they were the jackpot in that storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted Sunday at 05:02 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:02 PM Just now, LibertyBell said: But you're in SE CT right? You would be better off near New Haven, they were the jackpot in that storm. Southwest Connecticut. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Sunday at 05:02 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:02 PM 3 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: Thunder snow in Kansas city! Hoping they reach 12 inches for the first time since 1962. I see they're under a blizzard warning, I saw some forecasts for there up to 20 inches of snow? Wow! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted Sunday at 05:03 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:03 PM We got a huge blizzard out here in March…2019 maybe? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Sunday at 05:03 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:03 PM 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: Southwest Connecticut. The East in your location always throws me off lol I always think Weston= Western CT Easton= Eastern CT lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted Sunday at 05:07 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:07 PM 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: The East in your location always throws me off lol I always think Weston= Western CT Easton= Eastern CT lol I lived in Norwalk up until 2014 when I moved to Easton. Oddly I experienced 12 1ft plus storms in my lifetime in Norwalk, however since 2014 here in Easton I have only experienced one foot plus storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted Sunday at 05:08 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:08 PM 13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: we had blizzard warnings in the city? I don't remember that. I remember 6-8 inches here which is a very good storm for March. Can't really expect more than that in March, 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted Sunday at 05:09 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:09 PM GFS is just miserable. Mostly cold & dry...yuck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted Sunday at 05:09 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:09 PM Just now, Stormlover74 said: LOL I remember we thought that the coastal hugger was extinct given that we rarely ever saw it 2000 till this storm. Same with clippers till recently. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted Sunday at 05:16 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:16 PM 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: we started a March thread already ??? or is this supposed to be in the Memory Lane thread ? There’s nothing else to talk about…who cares 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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