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3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

My concern is that the models that do phase seem to blow it up too far west and cause it to hug the coast and it ends up another 3/14/17. We want it a little more progressive so that the phase and trough are 75-100 miles further east. The non-phased ones are maybe a period of light snow as it gets booted out to sea. The 6z GFS would be the worst imaginable kick in the balls east of NYC-too far north for tomorrow's event to a hugger mostly rain. 

We want a full phase and take our chances with ptype.  Take a bomb all day over a scraper but scraper is very likely or complete miss given the pattern

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Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Huge bust. Blizzard warnings for the city

Like 2015 I do not consider this a bust. In 2015 I was supposed to get almost 3 ft and got 7 inches, and in this event was supposed to get one to two feet and got nine and a half inches. Disappointments but not a bust, even the city had a six to eight event out of this. 

To me a bust is like what Philadelphia was supposed to get in 2015 which was 6 to 12 inches and got zero.

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Just now, EastonSN+ said:

I would sign up for a repeat of that in a heartbeat. 

image.png.6366994ea0e77a31806a713a31d2d093.png

You and any NW posters certainly. I had maybe 3" that turned to heavy rain and by the end it was gone. It's one of the most infuriating storms I lived through since there was hope even 24 hours out that east of NYC could salvage something but it ticked NW at the very end. So no, that's not something I want happening again lol. 

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9 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Like 2015 I do not consider this a bust. In 2015 I was supposed to get almost 3 ft and got 7 inches, and in this event was supposed to get one to two feet and got nine and a half inches. Disappointments but not a bust, even the city had a six to eight event out of this. 

To me a bust is like what Philadelphia was supposed to get in 2015 which was 6 to 12 inches and got zero.

Sleet wasn't even in my forecast and I mixed almost immediately. Still got a nice storm out of it but half what was expected

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13 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

You and any NW posters certainly. I had maybe 3" that turned to heavy rain and by the end it was gone. It's one of the most infuriating storms I lived through since there was hope even 24 hours out that east of NYC could salvage something but it ticked NW at the very end. So no, that's not something I want happening again lol. 

That was awful. Just sleet in my area. Turned over very quickly. Rule of thumb is March does not deliver more than 11 inches in the modern era, and no less than Mitch Volk weighed in the night before and indicated he wasn't buying the deep snows for us. 

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3 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

That was awful. Just sleet in my area. Turned over very quickly. Rule of thumb is March does not deliver more than 11 inches in the modern era, and no less than Mitch Volk weighed in the night before and indicated he wasn't buying the deep snows for us. 

Yeah but where? Green brook is very close by and got 18" in the March 2018 storm. Just a tiny bit of elevation was the difference between 5 and 20"

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3 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

What's hilarious is my childhood vacation spot Ocean City Maryland is going to do great with respect to average snowfall once again this year. Even they are doing better than us compared to average.

They are in a better position for the west to east track that typically exits near the Virginia capes.  I remember seeing a map of typical tracks storms take that go west to east and they're well located for that track.

 

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1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yeah but where? Green brook is very close by and got 18" in the March 2018 storm. Just a tiny bit of elevation was the difference between 5 and 20"

Over a foot here in Metuchen during the last storm in March 2018 

March 2017 we kept switching between sleet/snow which ended in 6 of concrete. Can’t imagine it was much different in Woodbridge 

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2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yeah but where? Green brook is very close by and got 18" in the March 2018 storm. Just a tiny bit of elevation was the difference between 5 and 20"

He was talking NYC, mostly Manhattan really, but it's been pretty true for my area as well. Green Brook is pretty far out, and the elevation matters there; I have seen snow at Washington Rock but not down at 22. 

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2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Over a foot here in Metuchen during the last storm in March 2018 

March 2017 we kept switching between sleet/snow which ended in 6 of concrete. Can’t imagine it was much different in Woodbridge 

It was the only one that March that hit our area good, but I don't think Woodbridge managed more than a foot. I think we measured around 10 and change. Which is a good storm any time in my book. Two footers are rare, and lethal. Even last Feb I had to break out the pack boots and get the big snowblower out of mothballs, and that was just under a foot.

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1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

We're still many years or decades away from CC being the primary driver destroying snow threats. The patterns matter much more. When DC to Richmond and down to Ocean City MD have perfect tracks, "cold" pattern for then and no snow is when I'd worry. DC has lowered their snow average over the last 20 years and ours went up largely because the patterns/storm evolutions have been a lot more favorable from 2000-18 for this area through much of New England with more Miller B type storms. Since late 2018 we're seeing serious regression which we're due for and the pattern shift to very fast Pacific flow that our area is almost uniquely situated for the worst outcomes-too suppressed like tomorrow, late bloomer which hits Boston, or SWFE/cutter. What CC is likely doing is creating these long lasting marine heatwaves that then alter the patterns-the MJO constantly being in phase 4-6 (doesn't seem to be the case this winter) and essentially permanent Nina effects because of the boiling W PAC that then charges up the Pacific jet, likely has something to do with CC. 

This is very similar to what happened in the late 80s, the last three years are a good match for that overall.

Maybe the fast Pac hurt us back then too.

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9 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Over a foot here in Metuchen during the last storm in March 2018 

March 2017 we kept switching between sleet/snow which ended in 6 of concrete. Can’t imagine it was much different in Woodbridge 

14" here from that late March 2018 storm. Wintry mix all day long then absolutely ripping once the sun set. 3-4"/hr out of that.

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1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

The East in your location always throws me off lol

I always think Weston= Western CT Easton= Eastern CT lol

I lived in Norwalk up until 2014 when I moved to Easton. Oddly I experienced 12 1ft plus storms in my lifetime in Norwalk, however since 2014 here in Easton I have only experienced one foot plus storm.

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