jdj5211 Posted Saturday at 10:24 PM Share Posted Saturday at 10:24 PM Remember, the most historic storms in our area are usually sniffed out well in advance with a pretty decent model consensus in the leading week. Would love for the Euro to start to jump on board but no doubt there is a very significant threat for a KU event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Saturday at 10:24 PM Share Posted Saturday at 10:24 PM 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted Saturday at 10:25 PM Share Posted Saturday at 10:25 PM Just now, MJO812 said: Bomb 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdj5211 Posted Saturday at 10:26 PM Share Posted Saturday at 10:26 PM this was almost too tucked into the coast....would want it where the 12Z gfs tracked the low 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Saturday at 10:26 PM Share Posted Saturday at 10:26 PM Just now, jdj5211 said: this was almost too tucked into the coast....would want it where the 12Z gfs tracked the low There is blocking so I doubt it cuts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted Saturday at 10:27 PM Share Posted Saturday at 10:27 PM Just now, jdj5211 said: this was almost too tucked into the coast....would want it where the 12Z gfs tracked the low 7 days 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted Saturday at 10:29 PM Share Posted Saturday at 10:29 PM Just your typical 971 on Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted Saturday at 10:32 PM Share Posted Saturday at 10:32 PM 4 minutes ago, jdj5211 said: this was almost too tucked into the coast....would want it where the 12Z gfs tracked the low A, you got blocking, and B you got a deep LP that can suck down its own cold even if the LP is overhead. Always will be kissing taint to get the best snow from these We roll the dice with this thing all day long. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted Saturday at 10:33 PM Share Posted Saturday at 10:33 PM 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: There is blocking so I doubt it cuts Not gonna cut. Apps runner MAYBE but if we see that it could still hybrid pop off the coast when its gets to this latitude. Apps runner is a rare beast. Doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted Saturday at 10:35 PM Share Posted Saturday at 10:35 PM 2 minutes ago, cleetussnow said: A, you got blocking, and B you got a deep LP that can suck down its own cold even if the LP is overhead. Always will be kissing taint to get the best snow from these We roll the dice with this thing all day long. Yup, give me that track an I'll ride with that all day long 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Saturday at 10:38 PM Share Posted Saturday at 10:38 PM 11 minutes ago, MJO812 said: There is blocking so I doubt it cuts yes it's actually good to see a coastal hugger right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Saturday at 10:39 PM Share Posted Saturday at 10:39 PM 10 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Just your typical 971 on Long Island. Millenium storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted Saturday at 10:40 PM Share Posted Saturday at 10:40 PM Just now, LibertyBell said: Millenium storm Thats the analog? When was that one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Saturday at 10:43 PM Share Posted Saturday at 10:43 PM 2 minutes ago, cleetussnow said: Thats the analog? When was that one? No I mean, it took a similar path to that track. December 2000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted Saturday at 10:44 PM Share Posted Saturday at 10:44 PM Just now, LibertyBell said: No I mean, it took a similar path to that track. December 2000. Ok yeah cuz nothing is really coming to mind off the bat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Saturday at 10:47 PM Share Posted Saturday at 10:47 PM 1 minute ago, cleetussnow said: Ok yeah cuz nothing is really coming to mind off the bat. It dropped 20+ just inland from the coast and even a foot on Long Island so most would be happy if that kind of outcome happened again. Plus it was during a la nina and in the middle of a very cold pattern too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted Saturday at 10:53 PM Share Posted Saturday at 10:53 PM Coldest air still into the Upper plains will be on the move i Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted Saturday at 10:57 PM Share Posted Saturday at 10:57 PM 7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: It dropped 20+ just inland from the coast and even a foot on Long Island so most would be happy if that kind of outcome happened again. Plus it was during a la nina and in the middle of a very cold pattern too. Verbatim this one transfers to just onshore in Delaware not offshore. Would be precip issues for coast, central and south nj and east of NYC. More like 3/7/18 I believe Anyway it will change 100 times 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted Saturday at 11:01 PM Share Posted Saturday at 11:01 PM this has pretty much every box checked off synoptically: phasing trough over the OH Valley, decaying west based -NAO, huge, slow moving 50/50, and antecedent cold air just a matter of how it all comes together 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Saturday at 11:05 PM Share Posted Saturday at 11:05 PM Gefs has a big signal 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted Saturday at 11:09 PM Share Posted Saturday at 11:09 PM 7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: this has pretty much every box checked off synoptically: phasing trough over the OH Valley, decaying west based -NAO, huge, slow moving 50/50, and antecedent cold air just a matter of how it all comes together I'm willing to bet we get skunked again 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Saturday at 11:09 PM Share Posted Saturday at 11:09 PM Just now, SnoSki14 said: I'm willing to bet we get skunked again Reason ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted Saturday at 11:09 PM Share Posted Saturday at 11:09 PM Just now, SnoSki14 said: I'm willing to bet we get skunked again Bet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Saturday at 11:10 PM Share Posted Saturday at 11:10 PM Just now, cleetussnow said: Bet Blocking breaking down This is when major snow events happen. MJO is also favorable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted Saturday at 11:12 PM Share Posted Saturday at 11:12 PM 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Blocking breaking down This is when major snow events happen. MJO is also favorable. Oh I’m taking the bet. Bases loaded. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted Saturday at 11:15 PM Share Posted Saturday at 11:15 PM 13 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: this has pretty much every box checked off synoptically: phasing trough over the OH Valley, decaying west based -NAO, huge, slow moving 50/50, and antecedent cold air just a matter of how it all comes together Thanks for this as always however Storm chaser Chuck in the Middle Atlantic forum seems to think this will be a rain event. That being said they are south of us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted Saturday at 11:16 PM Share Posted Saturday at 11:16 PM 9 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Kind of hoping that the cold air from before stays in place for the storm.. -NAO block is gone now, neutral, with some lingering ridging over Canada. I've seen this play before, it evolves toward the upper latitude pattern in the coming days. The +WPO Canadian ridge is going to extend south and kind of cutoff the cold air, unless it evolves away from +WPO in the coming days.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Saturday at 11:16 PM Share Posted Saturday at 11:16 PM 18 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Verbatim this one transfers to just onshore in Delaware not offshore. Would be precip issues for coast, central and south nj and east of NYC. More like 3/7/18 I believe Anyway it will change 100 times Do you agree it's good to see a coastal hugger right now because we're in a suppressed pattern? Not that such a storm can't happen in a suppressed pattern (see December 1989) which was the second blown 6-8 inch forecast in 1989 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Saturday at 11:17 PM Share Posted Saturday at 11:17 PM 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Thanks for this as always however Storm chaser Chuck in the Middle Atlantic forum seems to think this will be a rain event. That being said they are south of us. I think people are tired of the block already lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted Saturday at 11:19 PM Share Posted Saturday at 11:19 PM 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: Do you agree it's good to see a coastal hugger right now because we're in a suppressed pattern? Not that such a storm can't happen in a suppressed pattern (see December 1989) which was the second blown 6-8 inch forecast in 1989 lol. Not sure. I don't like seeing the gfs hugging since it often times with come nw with time Dec 89 of course formed too close to the coast and flooded us with warm air and we shot up from 28 to 40 in minutes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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