January 2025

[Volcanic Winter]

I'll never forget the runs that showed most of NJ getting 40+ inches out of 1/29/22. I have those images saved somewhere, it was ridiculous.

That one really could've been an ATG for this area, I think the double barrel low with the easternmost one becoming favored stole most of the subforum's snow and kept it offshore -> NE. But that system was an absolute nuke, I remember several meteorologists here posting satellite and infrared imagery of it at its peak and damn, what a monster.

[psv88]

Cold the next week is not impressive. Low to mid 30s. Slightly below normal but really ordinary for January. 

[coastalplainsnowman]

12 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

Best clown map of the season! Will only change 28 times between now and next Saturday 

E LI seems a bit underdone IMHO.

[bluewave]

33 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

For this decade I was using the four-year period starting with 2000 2021 which is what the table that's provided by the national weather service starts with. Seems they go from 0 for each decade instead of 9.

We could start from 2018 2019 which would yield an average of 15.2667. time will tell however it is still early in the grand scheme of things.

The one thing that is very unlikely is NYC returning to a 25” decadal snowfall average with a bunch of small to medium events. That was possible in a much colder climate era. The best shot of NYC getting back to around 25” for the 2020s are a return to big benchmark KU events.

[wdrag]

Regarding 1/10-11 potential event up here... I'm good with it NC/VA maybe Delmarva?

I still have trouble with it getting up here.  Could be wrong.

I've attached 12z/4 5H ensemble picture for 1/7 00z and 1/11. 

 

Am staying away from any thread for 1/10-11 til we get 1/6 started. I kind of want to get through this first nearby event before trying to tackle another snow threat for CP and let a couple more days of modeling play.  EPS still kind of dry here the next 10-14 days at our I80 latitude.  

[donsutherland1]

The impact of the upcoming snowstorm on weekly temperature anomalies (1/4/2025 ECMWF weeklies):

[EastonSN+]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The one thing that is very unlikely is NYC returning to a 25” decadal snowfall average with a bunch of small to medium events. That was possible in a much colder climate era. The best shot of NYC getting back to around 25” for the 2020s are a return to big benchmark KU events.

Agreed, which is basically what the 1990s were, and how you pointed out that was the start of the high volatility time frame. A good sign for us though was we got a KU event just 3 years ago so not too far back in the rear view mirror and we did have a KU in 2018 and 2017 each March. 

My personal benchmark is 1970 through 1999 and I'm fairly confident we can beat that this decade.

In any event this will be fun to watch and track.

[EastonSN+]

9 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Regarding 1/10-11 potential event up here... I'm good with it NC/VA maybe Delmarva?

I still have trouble with it getting up here.  Could be wrong.

I've attached 12z/4 5H ensemble picture for 1/7 00z and 1/11. 

 

Am staying away from any thread for 1/10-11 til we get 1/6 started. I kind of want to get through this first nearby event before trying to tackle another snow threat for CP and let a couple more days of modeling play.  EPS still kind of dry here the next 10-14 days at our I80 latitude.  

Looks like the axis of the trough is once again on top of us which is not good. Hoping we could potentially get an RNA to help pump the southeast ridge however with blocking that just may end up shredding any shortwave that gets up here.

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Agreed, which is basically what the 1990s were, and how you pointed out that was the start of the high volatility time frame. A good sign for us though was we got a KU event just 3 years ago so not too far back in the rear view mirror and we did have a KU in 2018 and 2017 each March. 

My personal benchmark is 1970 through 1999 and I'm fairly confident we can beat that this decade.

In any event this will be fun to watch and track.

It’s was still cold enough back in the 1990s to have 2 seasons with 50”+ and a few seasons near the 25” average. These days 50”+ seasons are tough to come by with how warm it has been. Plus no seasons with near average 25”snowfall since 19-20. So our path to an decadal 25”snowfall  average would be much narrower than the 1990s had to work with.

[WestBabylonWeather]

If next Saturday is a real threat then let the mid Atlantic have this one. 

[NorthShoreWx]

30 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The one thing that is very unlikely is NYC returning to a 25” decadal snowfall average with a bunch of small to medium events. That was possible in a much colder climate era. The best shot of NYC getting back to around 25” for the 2020s are a return to big benchmark KU events.

Depending on how you collated the stats, they could be overlooking the fact that there was that much snow from nickel and dime events falling during some of the "KU winters".  

[Dark Star]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Okay couldn't help myself I had to compare 1950 through 1969 against 2000 through 2019. 

I think we can all agree that 1950 through 1969 was a colder period than 2000 through 2019.

Even though 1950 through 1969 was much colder 2000 through 2019 averaged more snowfall. 

The average snowfall for 50 through 69 was 26.62. the average snowfall for 2000 through 2019 was 32.35. again another example of how warmer and more volatility is compensating for warming temperatures. 

I get that at some point if we continue to warm we will reach a tipping point and drop, I just don't think we are there yet or at least I don't have enough evidence.

 

What little I do know, our region has warmed faster than other areas, due to the slowing down of the Gulf Stream/Labrador currents circulation.  That, combined with the menace of a Pacific Jet, has not left us a favorable snow situation.  I understand that warmer air can feed more moisture into a winter storm, and thus producing more snow, but as you have mentioned, there is a tipping point.  But I always fall back to a basic concept, the snow triangle (for the NYC metro area).  Without a true cold air source, you can't have snow.  I'm a pessimist, so my perspective is obscured.  Patterns can change, and we might actually get true arctic air spilling down across the pole into eastern Canada.  Or some "new" type of pattern could develop, but I tend to buy into the general warming trend unless some time of correction occurs (such as the theory of a rapid melting of the ice caps could cool down the oceans, thus causing a sudden swing back to a colder climate).

[Dark Star]

49 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Cold the next week is not impressive. Low to mid 30s. Slightly below normal but really ordinary for January. 

This morning it was 32 degrees at 9AM, not exactly cold for this time of year.  

[ForestHillWx]

1 hour ago, MANDA said:

Got the Kuchera?  I am sure we’ll do better than the standard 10:1. 

I see I am in the bullseye.  That concerns me.

Initial call: 2-3’ at and near MMU; can always adjust upward… 

[EastonSN+]

29 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s was still cold enough back in the 1990s to have 2 seasons with 50”+ and a few seasons near the 25” average. These days 50”+ seasons are tough to come by with how warm it has been. Plus no seasons with near average 25”snowfall since 19-20. So our path to an decadal 25”snowfall  average would be much narrower than the 1990s had to work with.

I do see what you're seeing as well, I just feel like 6 years is an extremely small sample size. If this continues then I can definitely be convinced and I am open-minded to it I just need more time and data.

Living and experiencing the 1980s and 1990s have really given me pause as I remember them being very warm and snowless and that may be skewing my viewpoint now.

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

Cold the next week is not impressive. Low to mid 30s. Slightly below normal but really ordinary for January. 

Last few years-Amazing how the cold is always muted when it actually gets here.   But in this case it's good-the cold that was modeled a week ago would almost certainly be mainly dry/cold/windy.  We have a few weeks of slightly below to below normal temps which is great for snow chances.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Agreed, which is basically what the 1990s were, and how you pointed out that was the start of the high volatility time frame. A good sign for us though was we got a KU event just 3 years ago so not too far back in the rear view mirror and we did have a KU in 2018 and 2017 each March. 

My personal benchmark is 1970 through 1999 and I'm fairly confident we can beat that this decade.

In any event this will be fun to watch and track.

That January 2018 storm we've been reminiscing about was way better than any of those March storms.

[LibertyBell]

35 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I do see what you're seeing as well, I just feel like 6 years is an extremely small sample size. If this continues then I can definitely be convinced and I am open-minded to it I just need more time and data.

Living and experiencing the 1980s and 1990s have really given me pause as I remember them being very warm and snowless and that may be skewing my viewpoint now.

eh the 1980s were EXTREMELY COLD, especially January.

it's how we came to realize that just because it's cold doesn't mean it will snow lol.

 

[LibertyBell]

47 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

What little I do know, our region has warmed faster than other areas, due to the slowing down of the Gulf Stream/Labrador currents circulation.  That, combined with the menace of a Pacific Jet, has not left us a favorable snow situation.  I understand that warmer air can feed more moisture into a winter storm, and thus producing more snow, but as you have mentioned, there is a tipping point.  But I always fall back to a basic concept, the snow triangle (for the NYC metro area).  Without a true cold air source, you can't have snow.  I'm a pessimist, so my perspective is obscured.  Patterns can change, and we might actually get true arctic air spilling down across the pole into eastern Canada.  Or some "new" type of pattern could develop, but I tend to buy into the general warming trend unless some time of correction occurs (such as the theory of a rapid melting of the ice caps could cool down the oceans, thus causing a sudden swing back to a colder climate).

It's interesting to realize that for 85% of earth's history, ice caps didn't even exist.

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, greenmtnwx said:

Enough with that lol. New England has gotten snow, the midwest, ohio valley and now midatlantic. This one just a little suppressed.

all those places have way more ways of getting snow than this area does.

 

[EastonSN+]

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

eh the 1980s were EXTREMELY COLD, especially January.

it's how we came to realize that just because it's cold doesn't mean it will snow lol.

 

 

Found this when searching. It's odd when I grew up in the 1980s I always remember everybody complaining how warm the winters were and how El nino became a common phrase LOL. Global warming finally became a common topic during the eighties.

"New York City's average winter temperature is characterized by daily highs that decrease from 49°F to 45°F, rarely falling below 26°F or exceeding 61°F. In January, the average daily temperature ranges from around 22°F to 38°F, but it's common for temperatures to drop below freezing, especially at night. 

 

 

New York's average annual temperature has warmed 3°F since 1970, and is projected to rise by another 3°F by 2080. The state is also expected to experience more days above 90°F and more heat waves in the future."

[EWR757]

The AI/data-driven models are significantly further south and weaker with the low on January 11-12 than the deterministic/operational GFS and ECMWF.  I'm not sure why the AI stuff isn't embraced more, it's difficult to disagree with the superior verification of the technology. 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, cleetussnow said:

Record?  Wha?  

he's probably talking about when it was 65 at Newark about a week ago

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, dmillz25 said:

20” difference between mmu and nyc lmao

can't really complain about not being the jackpot when everyone gets over 20" (as per that map) lol

[RU848789]

2 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

 

While this is obviously fantasy land as it contains a 2nd storm 14 days out, the first storm is now just 7 days away, which is transitioning from fantasy land to something that could have potential, as per the 24 hr snowfall map below - not that we'll get that much snow, but that perhaps there's a decent chance of a significant snowstorm next weekend.  

[LibertyBell]

13 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

 

Found this when searching. It's odd when I grew up in the 1980s I always remember everybody complaining how warm the winters were and how El nino became a common phrase LOL. Global warming finally became a common topic during the eighties.

"New York City's average winter temperature is characterized by daily highs that decrease from 49°F to 45°F, rarely falling below 26°F or exceeding 61°F. In January, the average daily temperature ranges from around 22°F to 38°F, but it's common for temperatures to drop below freezing, especially at night. 

 

 

New York's average annual temperature has warmed 3°F since 1970, and is projected to rise by another 3°F by 2080. The state is also expected to experience more days above 90°F and more heat waves in the future."

If you look specifically at January, our mean temp that month was in the mid to upper 20s for a large part of that decade with huge and historic arctic outbreaks in 1980, 1981, 1984, 1985 and 1989.  But our Februarys were typically much warmer, so the cold was mostly confined to January (and sometimes December, as in 1989.)

Cold and dry followed by rainy cutters was a big thing back then and sometimes we had small to moderate snowfalls.

 

There were some underrated winters in the 80s though

 

Christmas 1980 the only time I've ever seen it get below 0 on Christmas and snow fell!

I find 1981-82 to be an extremely underrated winter-- check out what happened in January and then of course we had April.

 

1982-83 had the big HECS and the latest accumulating snowfall on record on April 20th.

 

1983-84 had the aforementioned moderate snowfalls (two 4 inchers) but was an extremely cold winter.

January 1985 had the largest arctic outbreak I've ever experienced.

January 1987 is an underrated winter storm.

1987-88 was an underrated winter.

December 1989 we already discussed-- it was as frigid as our coldest Januarys.

 

Keep in mind that although Central Park *only* got down to -1 or -2 in these arctic outbreaks (much colder than anything we've had since 2016 as it is), Newark and even Philly were MUCH colder.  Around -10 on Christmas 1980, January 1982, January 1985.

 

Could you imagine the headlines if it got down to -10 in the metro area now?

 

real temperature-- not wind chill!

 

[donsutherland1]

An extended period of generally below normal temperatures has now commenced in the New York City area. Although the general below normal temperature regime will likely extend through at least mid-month, it appears increasingly likely that there won't be the kind of severe cold that sees minimum temperatures fall below 10° in the Philadelphia to New York City areas during that period. The cold could still peak with readings dropping into the teens and several subfreezing highs.

A storm will bring parts of the Middle Atlantic region a moderate to locally significant snowfall tomorrow night into Monday. Parts of the region will see 4"-8" of snow with locally higher amounts.

Initial snowfall estimates:

Atlantic City: 3"-6"
Baltimore: 4"-8"
Islip: 0.5" or less (possibly no measurable snow)
New York City: 0.5" or less (possibly no measurable snow)
Newark: 1" or less (possibly no measurable snow)
Philadelphia: 3"-5"
Richmond: 1"-3"
Washington, DC: 4"-8"

Small changes in the models may still occur in coming cycles. The 12z UKMET that limits the northern extent of the heavy snowfall to central Virginia and 18z NAM that centers it just south of the Mason-Dixon Line are outliers. Those models probably offer worst-case scenarios. Big model changes remain unlikely as the AO block that will influence the storm's track and confluence to its north is well-modeled. The focus of the heaviest snows still appears to favor the Washington-Baltimore-Annapolis areas.

The second and third weeks of January will likely feature widespread cold anomalies in much of the eastern half of the CONUS and Canada south of the Hudson and James Bays. The potential exists for widespread cold anomalies of 6°-10° below normal during that week in parts of that region, particularly the Southeast. Those anomalies will likely result more from the prolonged nature of the cold than its severity. However, notable exceptions could be areas with fresh snow cover that experience strong radiational cooling.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around December 25. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.10°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.53°C. Neutral ENSO conditions may still evolve into a La Niña event during the winter. Uncertainty as to whether a La Niña will actually develop persists. On the December 19 outlook, 56% of dynamical models but 0% of the statistical models forecast the development of a La Niña.

The SOI was -0.23 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -3.075 today.

 

[Franklin0529]

GFS cooking up a monster next weekend 

[MJO812]

Closer to the coast

[Nibor]

Another coastal bomb on the 18z GFS.