January 2025

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

13-14 was another one, and that was an ENSO neutral season.

it really can happen in any kind of ENSO, the blocking is what matters.

[Dan76]

6 hours ago, cleetussnow said:

Back to the weather …huge differences between the 18z gfs and 00z for the 11th.  Not there yet but there is plenty of time ‘to get there from here’ so to speak.  

After that it's ugly.

[wdrag]

General northeast USA PA NJ northward Tuesday the 7th through Thursday the 9th: WINDY! Scattered northwest wind gusts 40-50 MPH! Isolated power outages.

NC-VA Fri Jan 10-Sat the 11th: A possible snow event of several inches? For now, if it makes up to NYC-I84 a dusting.

[bluewave]

The coming cold departures won’t be that impressive for what is traditionally the coldest part of the year since Canada will be so warm. 
 

 

[donsutherland1]

Morning Thoughts...

Not much has changed in the overall picture since yesterday. The dominant feature remains a strong and strengthening AO block. The latest value will likely come out near -3.000. A further decline will occur prior to the upcoming snowstorm. As a result, the storm track and confluence continue to favor a significant snowfall in the Washington, DC-Baltimore area with snowfall amounts falling off rapidly once one gets north of Philadelphia.  Some areas favored for the heaviest snowfall could see local amounts of 10" or more.

The confluence looks a little more impressive and secondary development looks to be a little slower than yesterday. The cutoff between little and no snowfall on the northern periphery of the storm will likely be somewhat sharper.

Early thinking:

Baltimore: 4"-8"
New York City: Possible coating (but the risk of no measurable snow has increased)
Philadelphia: 2"-4"
Washington, DC: 4"-8"

[EastonSN+]

12 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Morning Thoughts...

Not much has changed in the overall picture since yesterday. The dominant feature remains a strong and strengthening AO block. The latest value will likely come out near -3.000. A further decline will occur prior to the upcoming snowstorm. As a result, the storm track and confluence continue to favor a significant snowfall in the Washington, DC-Baltimore area with snowfall amounts falling off rapidly once one gets north of Philadelphia.  Some areas favored for the heaviest snowfall could see local amounts of 10" or more.

The confluence looks a little more impressive and secondary development looks to be a little slower than yesterday. The cutoff between little and no snowfall on the northern periphery of the storm will likely be somewhat sharper.

Early thinking:

Baltimore: 4"-8"
New York City: Possible coating (but the risk of no measurable snow has increased)
Philadelphia: 2"-4"
Washington, DC: 4"-8"

Thanks Don, I think the most interesting aspects of this event to watch are if Richmond stops their streak and if Kansas City gets their largest snowfall since 1962, the last time they had a foot of snow. 

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks Don, I think the most interesting aspects of this event to watch are if Richmond stops their streak and if Kansas City gets their largest snowfall since 1962, the last time they had a foot of snow. 

That area may also see the coldest temperatures next week due to the snow cover and great radiational cooling.

 

[donsutherland1]

7 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks Don, I think the most interesting aspects of this event to watch are if Richmond stops their streak and if Kansas City gets their largest snowfall since 1962, the last time they had a foot of snow. 

Yes, I agree. I think Richmond will end its streak. It will be uncomfortably close due to warmer air flooding the mid-levels. KC looks to be in line for 10"+ of snow.  How much sleet and/or freezing rain occurs remains somewhat of a question.

[qg_omega]

The pattern is horrific, one of the worst ones we have experienced in years.  Give me back last winter all day

[SnoSki14]

4 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

The pattern is horrific, one of the worst ones we have experienced in years.  Give me back last winter all day

I agree. Cold and dry sucks. 

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The coming cold departures won’t be that impressive for what is traditionally the coldest part of the year since Canada will be so warm. 
 

 

“Buckle up!!”

[Volcanic Winter]

Eh, I enjoy the cold - but we know I'm the odd one out with that. Cold + snow is obviously better, but I appreciate winter feeling more like winter even if it's not drastically BN.

[MJO812]

12 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

“Buckle up!!”

This is a great pattern. We just got bad luck.

[Allsnow]

28 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That area may also see the coldest temperatures next week due to the snow cover and great radiational cooling.

 

Impressive winter week for KC 

 

[Allsnow]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This is a great pattern. We just got bad luck.

Another earthlight fail 

[EastonSN+]

Jim Cantori is live in Kansas City. He said they may get thunder snow with the intensity and the weather channel is predicting 14 inches for Kansas City they do caveat that's any mixed could lower.

[Allsnow]

Our best hope is we can salvage something for the 11th but that is trending towards another MA deal. After that, it’s going to get hostile out west and any hope of a good winter is probably over 

[EastonSN+]

They we'll get down to -4 after the Storm overnight.

[EWR757]

For those enthusiasts that love stratocumulus clouds, the next two weeks should be really exciting. 

[EastonSN+]

Just now, Allsnow said:

Our best hope is we can salvage something for the 11th but that is trending towards another MA deal. After that, it’s going to get hostile out west and any hope of a good winter is probably over 

Rooting for DC to have an above average snowfall winter which is looking pretty good at this point. 

We will get our winter, maybe next year, maybe a couple years from now, but it'll happen and we will be much more appreciative of it over the 2000 to 2018. When we expected it.

Still tracking our average snowfall over this bad period starting in 2019 against the 30-year period of 1970 through 1999 so even if this winter is a dud overall I am hopeful that we get a couple of snow events. 

 

[Allsnow]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

Rooting for DC to have an above average snowfall winter which is looking pretty good at this point. 

We will get our winter, maybe next year, maybe a couple years from now, but it'll happen and we will be much more appreciative of it over the 2000 to 2018. When we expected it.

Still tracking our average snowfall over this bad period starting in 2019 against the 30-year period of 1970 through 1999 so even if this winter is a dud overall I am hopeful that we get a couple of snow events. 

 

DC will probably get to avg or above of the 11th hits them 

[EastonSN+]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

I still think our best opportunity for snow event is in the transition which is represented below in the eps. We need the RNA at this point to counter the nao which will be weakening. If we can time an event before the RNA gets too negative we will have decent cold air in place. 

I wonder what is keeping the nao negative for the majority of the year it's interesting. EPO as well.

 

[EastonSN+]

The mjo progression is interesting, looks like it gets stuck in phase 8 and 1 which is different than the last couple days which progressed it through 1 and 2.

[EastonSN+]

Weeklies week 3. This shows our transition window well.

[snowman19]

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

 

Wasn’t this guy honking big snow events in the northeast? 

[donsutherland1]

For reference: Central Canadian origin of the current air mass.

[North and West]

For reference: Central Canadian origin of the current air mass.

What does that mean to a non-weather person?


.

[donsutherland1]

The 1/4 AO value came in at -3.075. The AO continues to fall quite rapidly. The current value is the lowest of the winter so far. A further decline is forecast on the ensembles.

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

This is a great pattern. We just got bad luck.

It's good for DC and southern regions