January 2025

[LibertyBell]

16 minutes ago, EWR757 said:

Very mean looking altostratus pattern out there again.  Is this what Antarctica is like?   Dry, cold and windy?

Antarctica is a desert.

All that snow you see accumulated over thousands of years and never melted (especially near the South Pole.)

 

 

[donsutherland1]

An extended period of generally below normal temperatures is now poised to commence in the New York City area. Although the general below normal temperature regime will likely extend through at least mid-month, it appears increasingly likely that there won't be severe cold that sees minimum temperatures fall below 10° in the Philadelphia to New York City areas during that period. The cold could still peak with readings dropping into the teens with several subfreezing highs.

A storm will bring parts of the Middle Atlantic region a moderate to locally significant snowfall Sunday night into Monday. Washington, DC and Baltimore appear to be in line for 4"-8" of snow. Philadelphia has the potential to pick up 3"-6", but there is greater uncertainty there.

Once north of Philadelphia, accumulations could fall off quite rapidly. A light amount remains likely for the New York City area.

Richmond will likely see an end to its ongoing record streak of 1,083 days without daily 1" or greater daily snowfall. However, that outcome isn't completely assured. In addition to snow, sleet and freezing rain are likely in Richmond.

Small changes in the models may still occur in coming cycles. Big changes seem unlikely as the AO block that will influence the storm's track and confluence to its north is well-modeled.

The second and third weeks of January will likely feature widespread cold anomalies in much of the eastern half of the CONUS and Canada south of the Hudson and James Bays. The potential exists for widespread cold anomalies of 6°-10° below normal during that week in parts of that region, particularly the Southeast. Those anomalies will likely result more from the prolonged nature of the cold than its severity. However, notable exceptions could be areas with fresh snow cover that experience strong radiational cooling.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around December 25. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.10°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.53°C. Neutral ENSO conditions may still evolve into a La Niña event during the winter. Uncertainty as to whether a La Niña will actually develop persists. On the December 19 outlook, 56% of dynamical models but 0% of the statistical models forecast the development of a La Niña.

The SOI was -7.63 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.085 today.

 

[bluewave]

15 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Didn't we have one around the same time period in 95-96 Chris? I remember an extended cold stretch that began with an MECS in December and ended with an HECS in January.

Seems like December-early January cold snaps are fairly common in La Ninas but snowstorms come down to NAO blocking.

While it wasn’t as cold, it was snowier. 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

While it wasn’t as cold, it was snowier. 

What I found absolutely amazing was that some of that December snow was still around for the January blizzard.  We had a white Christmas and white New Years that year, I wonder how often that's happened?

 

[Brian5671]

54 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

all the hysteria of a arctic blast on news media sites. it is not really a arctic blast at all..

they must be looking at last week's models which showed a more historic cold outbreak especially in the midwest....models have moved away from that so it's weird they (media) are still hyping it....

[bluewave]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

What I found absolutely amazing was that some of that December snow was still around for the January blizzard.  We had a white Christmas and white New Years that year, I wonder how often that's happened?

 

What impressed me most about 95-96 was the extended cold and snow cover from late November into early April. It’s probably the closest that we have come to wall to wall cold and snow. 10-11 could have caught up and maybe surpassed it if the pattern didn’t shift after Janaury.

[the_other_guy]

16 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

they must be looking at last week's models which showed a more historic cold outbreak especially in the midwest....models have moved away from that so it's weird they (media) are still hyping it....

You are getting a traditional temperature January.

 

Take it and run and be happy.

 

This is like the QE2 pulling into port in 1985 and you are looking for the Queen Mary. 

[LibertyBell]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

What impressed me most about 95-96 was the extended cold and snow cover from late November into early April. It’s probably the closest that we have come to wall to wall cold and snow. 10-11 could have caught up and maybe surpassed it if the pattern didn’t shift after Janaury.

the only other winter that came close was 02-03.  And we had it with two completely opposite ENSO, but both had sustained NAO blocking.

[TJW014]

Quick heavy band ripping through here.

[Brian5671]

55 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

You are getting a traditional temperature January.

 

Take it and run and be happy.

 

This is like the QE2 pulling into port in 1985 and you are looking for the Queen Mary. 

I'm not complaining...just need it cold enough, too cold and you get suppression.   

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

What impressed me most about 95-96 was the extended cold and snow cover from late November into early April. It’s probably the closest that we have come to wall to wall cold and snow. 10-11 could have caught up and maybe surpassed it if the pattern didn’t shift after Janaury.

Even at that, at least around here we had snowcover straight through 3/1...the warmup after the snows was mostly dry so the pack slowly melted which was also good from a flooding standpoint.  We did get a 3 inch refresher president's day weekend as well.

[Allsnow]

2 hours ago, nycwinter said:

all the hysteria of a arctic blast on news media sites. it is not really a arctic blast at all..

It went somewhere 

Meanwhile 8-12 coming for them tomorrow 

 

[Allsnow]

 

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

It went somewhere 

Meanwhile 8-12 coming for them tomorrow 

 

Even a tough forecast for them with alot of mixing at the start. Some places probably see under 6 and nearby a foot

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

they must be looking at last week's models which showed a more historic cold outbreak especially in the midwest....models have moved away from that so it's weird they (media) are still hyping it....

The MSM has become useless. That should be plainly evident by now. I get better weather info here.

[weatherpruf]

FWIW my wife was in Hamilton and it was snow covered.

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

The MSM has become useless. That should be plainly evident by now. I get better weather info here.

I haven't watched a local TV newscast/weathercast in years

[Stormlover74]

10 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

I haven't watched a local TV newscast/weathercast in years

They're fine. It's the weather channel, national news and social media that's the problem with all the hype

[LVblizzard]

SREF mean went a little north again. Sign of things to come for the 0z suite?

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

SREF mean went a little north again. Sign of things to come for the 0z suite?

 

[Allsnow]

Thunder squall in DC today 

 

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

the only other winter that came close was 02-03.  And we had it with two completely opposite ENSO, but both had sustained NAO blocking.

13-14 was another one, and that was an ENSO neutral season.

[MJO812]

Next weekend storm coming back ?

[cleetussnow]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Next weekend storm coming back ?

Trough orientation more negative tilted.  Could mean its gonna climb and phase.  I wasn’t planning on looking again..  

[cleetussnow]

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Has a chance if all the energy doesn't get strung out to the SW. If more of that can be consolidated and move east we can make something happen.

[nycwinter]

the older you get the less you care about cold and snow now you know why so many older people move to florida...

[Volcanic Winter]

35 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

the older you get the less you care about cold and snow now you know why so many older people move to florida...

And then there's me, who wants to retire in the mountains near the Canadian border .

[cleetussnow]

Back to the weather …huge differences between the 18z gfs and 00z for the 11th.  Not there yet but there is plenty of time ‘to get there from here’ so to speak.  

[H2Otown_WX]

2 hours ago, cleetussnow said:

Back to the weather …huge differences between the 18z gfs and 00z for the 11th.  Not there yet but there is plenty of time ‘to get there from here’ so to speak.  

Plenty of time for it to get worse, too. The MO of the last like 7 winters is to find the worst possible solution. Basically the opposite of the previous 15 winters or so where things would trend better and it found every excuse to snow with the exception of the years that were well below normal like 06-07 and 11-12.