January 2025

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

That's a lot of Lows.

Bluewave this is not the wave spacing we need.

This has been the issue since 18-19 with the very fast Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet. The 3 primary storm tracks have been cuttter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream. This is one of the main reasons NYC average snowfall during the 2020s so far has dipped under 20”. So even when we get these marginally colder intervals it’s been a challenge to get a big KU event. We even had these KUs in warm patterns from 15-16 and 17-18. But benchmark storm tracks have been few and far between.The interesting thing about NYC snowfall is that they generally need KUs for normal to above normal snowfall. Getting to average with a series of small to moderate events in a general warmer climate is tougher. Maybe in the colder era we could count on a bunch of light to moderate events to add up to normal. 

[forkyfork]

26 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This has been the issue since 18-19 with the very fast Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet. The 3 primary storm tracks have been cuttter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream. This is one of the main reasons NYC average snowfall during the 2020s so far has dipped under 20”. So even when we get these marginally colder intervals it’s been a challenge to get a big KU event. We even had these KUs in warm patterns from 15-16 and 17-18. But benchmark storm tracks have been few and far between.The interesting thing about NYC snowfall is that they generally need KUs for normal to above normal snowfall. Getting to average with a series of small to moderate events in a general warmer climate is tougher. Maybe in the colder era we could count on a bunch of light to moderate events to add up to normal. 

that and shorter snow seasons. march ku events have fallen off a cliff

[Allsnow]

27 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This has been the issue since 18-19 with the very fast Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet. The 3 primary storm tracks have been cuttter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream. This is one of the main reasons NYC average snowfall during the 2020s so far has dipped under 20”. So even when we get these marginally colder intervals it’s been a challenge to get a big KU event. We even had these KUs in warm patterns from 15-16 and 17-18. But benchmark storm tracks have been few and far between.The interesting thing about NYC snowfall is that they generally need KUs for normal to above normal snowfall. Getting to average with a series of small to moderate events in a general warmer climate is tougher. Maybe in the colder era we could count on a bunch of light to moderate events to add up to normal. 

SNE snowfall has really fallen off a cliff since 2021 

[EastonSN+]

What will be impressive is Kansas City may have its largest snowfall since 1962 and Richmond may have up to a foot according to the euro.

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

This has been the issue since 18-19 with the very fast Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet. The 3 primary storm tracks have been cuttter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream. This is one of the main reasons NYC average snowfall during the 2020s so far has dipped under 20”. So even when we get these marginally colder intervals it’s been a challenge to get a big KU event. We even had these KUs in warm patterns from 15-16 and 17-18. But benchmark storm tracks have been few and far between.The interesting thing about NYC snowfall is that they generally need KUs for normal to above normal snowfall. Getting to average with a series of small to moderate events in a general warmer climate is tougher. Maybe in the colder era we could count on a bunch of light to moderate events to add up to normal. 

I hope the following happens as it would likely ensure DC has an above average snowfall winter.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

SNE snowfall has really fallen off a cliff since 2021 

This decade so far is producing a different type of reversion to the mean. The average so far in Boston is reverting to what NYC used to get. NYC is reverting to the old Washington DC mean. So a northward shift of the snowfall climate zones last 5 winters. Hopefully, we can see this storm track pattern relax some next 4 winters. Otherwise the 2020s will finish as our lowest snowfall decade. 
 

[SnowGoose69]

29 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

What will be impressive is Kansas City may have its largest snowfall since 1962 and Richmond may have up to a foot according to the euro.

KC will likely mix alot with pellets, WAA tends to be underdone, the 3k NAM sort of shows that happening there 

[jm1220]

25 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I hope the following happens as it would likely ensure DC has an above average snowfall winter.

In 18-19 if not mistaken DC was above average because of the Jan 2019 event, and when the pattern relaxed in March the northern suburbs got their storms (I did OK on the N Shore). Horrendous winter for southern NYC/LI-too far N for the suppressed crap storms, too far S when the pattern relaxed. That’s the winter that started this raging Pacific spraying crap all over the place era, so wouldn’t be surprised at all for it happening again. 

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

In 18-19 if not mistaken DC was above average because of the Jan 2019 event, and when the pattern relaxed in March the northern suburbs got their storms (I did OK on the N Shore). Horrendous winter for southern NYC/LI-too far N for the suppressed crap storms, too far S when the pattern relaxed. That’s the winter that started this raging Pacific spraying crap all over the place era, so wouldn’t be surprised at all for it happening again. 

It feels like the Middle Atlantic has been beating us with regards to percentage of average over the last 7 years including this year.

[Allsnow]

3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

It feels like the Middle Atlantic has been beating us with regards to percentage of average over the last 7 years including this year.

1. They avg less then us 

2. I believe their last above avg winter was 2018-2019 

3. 20-21 they finished below avg 

[bluewave]

The lack of snow cover, warmer lakes, and the delayed Hudson Bay freeze-up will alter the Arctic outbreak next week. The airmass will significantly modify crossing the Great Lakes. The big story for us will be the wind chill factor with the strong winds. While the actual temperatures will be a little below average here, the area south of the Great Lakes will see the coldest temperatures. That -20 departure back on December 22 will probably stand as the coldest we see for a while.
 

[EastonSN+]

9 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

1. They avg less then us 

2. I believe their last above avg winter was 2018-2019 

3. 20-21 they finished below avg 

Talking about performance with regards to percentage of average. NYC has had less than 10 inch of snow 2 years in a row and only one above average snowfall season if we were to include this season. This would give DC two. So they could be outperforming us with regards to percentage of average over the course of the time. 

[jm1220]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The lack of snow cover, warmer lakes, and the delayed Hudson Bay freeze-up will alter the Arctic outbreak next week. The airmass will significantly modify crossing the Great Lakes. The big story for us will be the wind chill factor with the strong winds. While the actual temperatures will be a little below average here, the area south of the Great Lakes will see the coldest temperatures. That -20 departure back on December 22 will probably stand as the coldest we see for a while.
 

 

Something else that’s just about gone extinct is the direct shot of Arctic cold from the north which gives us some of our coldest readings like in early Feb 2016. Now our “Arctic” blasts come in from the west and get significantly modified. 

[wishcast_hater]

it’s much colder today than was forecast. I was supposed to get a high of 37° but so far I’m only at 30 with flurries.


.

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Something else that’s just about gone extinct is the direct shot of Arctic cold from the north which gives us some of our coldest readings like in early Feb 2016. Now our “Arctic” blasts come in from the west and get significantly modified. 

We were able to get that one cold air drain down the Hudson Valley on December 22nd with the strong Arctic high and NNW flow missing the Great Lakes. 
 

Climatological Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - December 2024
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Sum	1351	1020	-	-	824	0	4.53	2.8	-
Average	43.6	32.9	38.2	-0.9	-	-	-	-	0.3
Normal	44.3	33.8	39.1	-	804	0	4.38	4.9
2024-12-01	38	27	32.5	-10.7	32	0	0.00	0.0	0
2024-12-02	39	29	34.0	-8.9	31	0	0.00	0.0	0
2024-12-03	42	32	37.0	-5.6	28	0	T	T	0
2024-12-04	42	30	36.0	-6.3	29	0	0.01	T	0
2024-12-05	40	31	35.5	-6.5	29	0	0.09	T	0
2024-12-06	34	30	32.0	-9.7	33	0	0.00	0.0	0
2024-12-07	41	31	36.0	-5.4	29	0	0.00	0.0	0
2024-12-08	55	38	46.5	5.4	18	0	0.00	0.0	0
2024-12-09	51	44	47.5	6.6	17	0	0.18	0.0	0
2024-12-10	50	44	47.0	6.4	18	0	0.26	0.0	0
2024-12-11	60	41	50.5	10.2	14	0	0.85	0.0	0
2024-12-12	41	29	35.0	-5.0	30	0	0.00	0.0	0
2024-12-13	33	27	30.0	-9.7	35	0	0.00	0.0	0
2024-12-14	34	26	30.0	-9.5	35	0	0.00	0.0	0
2024-12-15	41	28	34.5	-4.7	30	0	0.06	0.0	0
2024-12-16	52	38	45.0	6.1	20	0	0.91	0.0	0
2024-12-17	59	49	54.0	15.4	11	0	0.02	0.0	0
2024-12-18	53	42	47.5	9.1	17	0	0.32	0.0	0
2024-12-19	45	37	41.0	2.9	24	0	0.05	0.0	0
2024-12-20	37	33	35.0	-2.9	30	0	0.04	T	0
2024-12-21	33	19	26.0	-11.6	39	0	0.15	1.8	2
2024-12-22	21	13	17.0	-20.4	48	0	0.00	0.0	1
2024-12-23	31	13	22.0	-15.1	43	0	0.00	0.0	1
2024-12-24	39	28	33.5	-3.4	31	0	0.10	1.0	1
2024-12-25	35	28	31.5	-5.2	33	0	0.00	0.0	1
2024-12-26	36	24	30.0	-6.4	35	0	0.00	0.0	1
2024-12-27	44	26	35.0	-1.2	30	0	0.00	0.0	1
2024-12-28	54	40	47.0	11.0	18	0	0.56	0.0	0
2024-12-29	60	50	55.0	19.2	10	0	0.16	0.0	0
2024-12-30	58	49	53.5	17.9	11	0	0.37	0.0	0
2024-12-31	53	44	48.5	13.1	16	0	0.40	0.0	0

 

[MANDA]

22 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The lack of snow cover, warmer lakes, and the delayed Hudson Bay freeze-up will alter the Arctic outbreak next week. The airmass will significantly modify crossing the Great Lakes. The big story for us will be the wind chill factor with the strong winds. While the actual temperatures will be a little below average here, the area south of the Great Lakes will see the coldest temperatures. That -20 departure back on December 22 will probably stand as the coldest we see for a while.
 

The anomaly map shows the impact of the impending snow cover nicely.

[Allsnow]

29 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Something else that’s just about gone extinct is the direct shot of Arctic cold from the north which gives us some of our coldest readings like in early Feb 2016. Now our “Arctic” blasts come in from the west and get significantly modified. 

December 2022

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

This has been the issue since 18-19 with the very fast Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet. The 3 primary storm tracks have been cuttter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream. This is one of the main reasons NYC average snowfall during the 2020s so far has dipped under 20”. So even when we get these marginally colder intervals it’s been a challenge to get a big KU event. We even had these KUs in warm patterns from 15-16 and 17-18. But benchmark storm tracks have been few and far between.The interesting thing about NYC snowfall is that they generally need KUs for normal to above normal snowfall. Getting to average with a series of small to moderate events in a general warmer climate is tougher. Maybe in the colder era we could count on a bunch of light to moderate events to add up to normal. 

I think if people researched the late 80s, they would know that wasn't a matter of luck either, and the causes are the same now as they were then.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

This decade so far is producing a different type of reversion to the mean. The average so far in Boston is reverting to what NYC used to get. NYC is reverting to the old Washington DC mean. So a northward shift of the snowfall climate zones last 5 winters. Hopefully, we can see this storm track pattern relax some next 4 winters. Otherwise the 2020s will finish as our lowest snowfall decade. 
 

But if DC gets more snowfall than NYC, that means we are actually reverting back to the late 80s snowfall pattern, Chris.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

In 18-19 if not mistaken DC was above average because of the Jan 2019 event, and when the pattern relaxed in March the northern suburbs got their storms (I did OK on the N Shore). Horrendous winter for southern NYC/LI-too far N for the suppressed crap storms, too far S when the pattern relaxed. That’s the winter that started this raging Pacific spraying crap all over the place era, so wouldn’t be surprised at all for it happening again. 

If you were on the south shore in the late 80s then you remember this kind of pattern lol.

We would have cold dry Januarys with storms hitting DC and Baltimore and then in February they would hug or cut and areas to our north would get hit.

 

 

[Tatamy]

Starting to see some very light snow and flurries with the weak disturbance moving SE across PA.  Not expecting more than a dusting here if that into this evening.

[FPizz]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

It feels like the Middle Atlantic has been beating us with regards to percentage of average over the last 7 years including this year.

Depends on where you live.  I'm averaging .3" less this decade so far than what the 80s and 90s did, so pretty much exactly the same thing. 

[SACRUS]

[bluewave]

47 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

But if DC gets more snowfall than NYC, that means we are actually reverting back to the late 80s snowfall pattern, Chris.

The 1980s were snowier than the first 5 years of the 2020s so far since they had a bunch of seasons near average. NYC only had 3 near average seasons since 1994 and none in the 2020s. During the 1980s more of the precipitation was falling as snow since it was much colder. Now the wetter winters than the 80s have a smaller percentage of the total precipitation falling as snow since it’s much warmer. Less precipitation and more snow during the 1980s. 
 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	T	0.1	2.3	7.9	5.4	3.0	1.0	19.7
1979-1980	T	0.0	3.5	2.0	2.7	4.6	T	12.8
1980-1981	0.0	T	2.8	8.0	T	8.6	0.0	19.4
1981-1982	0.0	0.0	2.1	11.8	0.4	0.7	9.6	24.6
1982-1983	0.0	0.0	3.0	1.9	21.5	T	0.8	27.2
1983-1984	0.0	T	1.6	11.7	0.2	11.9	0.0	25.4
1984-1985	0.0	T	5.5	8.4	10.0	0.2	T	24.1
1985-1986	0.0	T	0.9	2.2	9.9	T	T	13.0
1986-1987	0.0	T	0.6	13.6	7.0	1.9	0.0	23.1
1987-1988	0.0	1.1	2.6	13.9	1.5	T	0.0	19.1
1988-1989	0.0	0.0	0.3	5.0	0.3	2.5	0.0	8.1

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	0.0	T	2.6	4.4	7.1	0.1	T	14.2
2019-2020	0.0	0.0	2.5	2.3	T	T	T	4.8
2020-2021	0.0	0.0	10.5	2.1	26.0	T	0.0	38.6
2021-2022	0.0	T	0.2	15.3	2.0	0.4	0.0	17.9
2022-2023	0.0	0.0	T	T	2.2	0.1	0.0	2.3
2023-2024	0.0	T	T	2.3	5.2	T	0.0	7.5

 

Monthly Total Precipitation for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	3.32	3.26	3.08	9.66
1979-1980	2.69	1.72	1.04	5.45
1980-1981	0.58	0.58	6.04	7.20
1981-1982	5.18	6.46	2.37	14.01
1982-1983	1.47	5.01	3.22	9.70
1983-1984	9.77	1.87	4.86	16.50
1984-1985	3.26	1.00	2.41	6.67
1985-1986	0.83	4.23	2.86	7.92
1986-1987	6.16	5.81	1.01	12.98
1987-1988	2.17	3.64	3.91	9.72
1988-1989	1.13	2.29	3.03	6.45

 

Monthly Total Precipitation for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	5.13	3.64	2.85	11.61
2019-2020	7.09	1.93	2.54	11.56
2020-2021	4.61	2.31	5.13	12.05
2021-2022	1.39	4.29	3.23	8.91
2022-2023	5.83	4.38	1.28	11.49
2023-2024	6.71	5.28	2.05	14.04

 

 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	38.0	31.2	35.4	34.9
1979-1980	41.1	33.7	31.4	35.4
1980-1981	32.4	26.2	39.3	32.6
1981-1982	36.5	26.1	35.3	32.6
1982-1983	42.7	34.5	36.4	37.9
1983-1984	35.2	29.9	40.6	35.2
1984-1985	43.7	28.8	36.6	36.4
1985-1986	34.2	34.1	31.9	33.4
1986-1987	39.0	32.3	33.2	34.8
1987-1988	39.5	29.5	34.9	34.6
1988-1989	35.9	37.4	34.5	35.9

 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	40.9	36.9	38.6	38.8
2019-2020	38.3	39.1	40.1	39.2
2020-2021	39.2	34.8	34.2	36.1
2021-2022	43.8	30.3	37.3	37.1
2022-2023	38.5	43.5	41.1	41.0
2023-2024	44.6	37.0	40.1	40.6

 

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The 1980s were snowier than the first 5 years of the 2020s so far since they had a bunch of seasons near average. NYC only had 3 near average seasons since 1994 and none in the 2020s. During the 1980s more of the precipitation was falling as snow since it was much colder. Now the wetter winters than the 80s have a smaller percentage of the total precipitation falling as snow since it’s much warmer. Less precipitation and more snow during the 1980s. 
 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	T	0.1	2.3	7.9	5.4	3.0	1.0	19.7
1979-1980	T	0.0	3.5	2.0	2.7	4.6	T	12.8
1980-1981	0.0	T	2.8	8.0	T	8.6	0.0	19.4
1981-1982	0.0	0.0	2.1	11.8	0.4	0.7	9.6	24.6
1982-1983	0.0	0.0	3.0	1.9	21.5	T	0.8	27.2
1983-1984	0.0	T	1.6	11.7	0.2	11.9	0.0	25.4
1984-1985	0.0	T	5.5	8.4	10.0	0.2	T	24.1
1985-1986	0.0	T	0.9	2.2	9.9	T	T	13.0
1986-1987	0.0	T	0.6	13.6	7.0	1.9	0.0	23.1
1987-1988	0.0	1.1	2.6	13.9	1.5	T	0.0	19.1
1988-1989	0.0	0.0	0.3	5.0	0.3	2.5	0.0	8.1

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	0.0	T	2.6	4.4	7.1	0.1	T	14.2
2019-2020	0.0	0.0	2.5	2.3	T	T	T	4.8
2020-2021	0.0	0.0	10.5	2.1	26.0	T	0.0	38.6
2021-2022	0.0	T	0.2	15.3	2.0	0.4	0.0	17.9
2022-2023	0.0	0.0	T	T	2.2	0.1	0.0	2.3
2023-2024	0.0	T	T	2.3	5.2	T	0.0	7.5

 

Monthly Total Precipitation for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	3.32	3.26	3.08	9.66
1979-1980	2.69	1.72	1.04	5.45
1980-1981	0.58	0.58	6.04	7.20
1981-1982	5.18	6.46	2.37	14.01
1982-1983	1.47	5.01	3.22	9.70
1983-1984	9.77	1.87	4.86	16.50
1984-1985	3.26	1.00	2.41	6.67
1985-1986	0.83	4.23	2.86	7.92
1986-1987	6.16	5.81	1.01	12.98
1987-1988	2.17	3.64	3.91	9.72
1988-1989	1.13	2.29	3.03	6.45

 

Monthly Total Precipitation for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	5.13	3.64	2.85	11.61
2019-2020	7.09	1.93	2.54	11.56
2020-2021	4.61	2.31	5.13	12.05
2021-2022	1.39	4.29	3.23	8.91
2022-2023	5.83	4.38	1.28	11.49
2023-2024	6.71	5.28	2.05	14.04

 

 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	38.0	31.2	35.4	34.9
1979-1980	41.1	33.7	31.4	35.4
1980-1981	32.4	26.2	39.3	32.6
1981-1982	36.5	26.1	35.3	32.6
1982-1983	42.7	34.5	36.4	37.9
1983-1984	35.2	29.9	40.6	35.2
1984-1985	43.7	28.8	36.6	36.4
1985-1986	34.2	34.1	31.9	33.4
1986-1987	39.0	32.3	33.2	34.8
1987-1988	39.5	29.5	34.9	34.6
1988-1989	35.9	37.4	34.5	35.9

 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	40.9	36.9	38.6	38.8
2019-2020	38.3	39.1	40.1	39.2
2020-2021	39.2	34.8	34.2	36.1
2021-2022	43.8	30.3	37.3	37.1
2022-2023	38.5	43.5	41.1	41.0
2023-2024	44.6	37.0	40.1	40.6

 

Do you think this is at least a little bit of balancing the scales since DC hasn't consistently beaten NYC in snowfall since the late 80s and maybe the last few years is a sign that might be happening again Chris?

 

[nycwinter]

all the hysteria of a arctic blast on news media sites. it is not really a arctic blast at all..

[MJO812]

[EWR757]

Very mean looking altostratus pattern out there again.  Is this what Antarctica is like?   Dry, cold and windy?

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

December 2022

That was a really good one even though it didn’t have any lasting power. Extended record cold has been tough to come by over the last decade. Late December 2017 into early January 2018 was our last impressive winter Arctic outbreak lasting more than a few days. 
 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2017-12-27	24	17	-15.7	0.0
2017-12-28	18	11	-21.5	0.0
2017-12-29	22	11	-19.3	0.0
2017-12-30	23	17	-15.6	0.7
2017-12-31	21	9	-20.4	0.0
2018-01-01	19	7	-22.2	0.0
2018-01-02	26	13	-15.5	0.0
2018-01-03	30	16	-11.8	0.0
2018-01-04	29	19	-10.7	9.8
2018-01-05	19	9	-20.5	0.0
2018-01-06	13	6	-24.9	0.0
2018-01-07	18	5	-22.7	0.0
2018-01-08	31	17	-10.1	T

 

[LibertyBell]

13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That was a really good one even though it didn’t have any lasting power. Extended record cold has been tough to come by over the last decade. Late December 2017 into early January 2018 was our last impressive winter Arctic outbreak lasting more than a few days. 
 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2017-12-27	24	17	-15.7	0.0
2017-12-28	18	11	-21.5	0.0
2017-12-29	22	11	-19.3	0.0
2017-12-30	23	17	-15.6	0.7
2017-12-31	21	9	-20.4	0.0
2018-01-01	19	7	-22.2	0.0
2018-01-02	26	13	-15.5	0.0
2018-01-03	30	16	-11.8	0.0
2018-01-04	29	19	-10.7	9.8
2018-01-05	19	9	-20.5	0.0
2018-01-06	13	6	-24.9	0.0
2018-01-07	18	5	-22.7	0.0
2018-01-08	31	17	-10.1	T

 

Didn't we have one around the same time period in 95-96 Chris? I remember an extended cold stretch that began with an MECS in December and ended with an HECS in January.

Seems like December-early January cold snaps are fairly common in La Ninas but snowstorms come down to NAO blocking.