January 2025

[SnowGoose69]

I don’t think pattern goes to full hell til early February when the impact of the MJO raging into phase 3 is felt.  And remember there is always a lag and it may also slow down somewhat.  If we continue to have poleward ridging by AK and a -AO the pattern could even be workable in a phase 3-4 MJO run, especially if it’s weaker  

[MJO812]

Not a bad look

[Allsnow]

Looks like another jet ext at the end of next week haha

[snowman19]

23 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

With this being a Nina and fast Pacific jet like we’ve pretty much had since late 2018 nonstop, once the blocking relaxes it might just go back to cutters or SWFE that favor New England. Our hope is that in the transition something can sneak in and get us. This pattern is tailor made to screw us. The fast pattern allows for suppressed threats or cutters but seemingly not ones for us. Makes you appreciate 2020-21 even more when somehow we got some threats to work. 

20-21 worked in February because you had a solar minimum that allowed the locked in -NAO/-AO blocking. The QBO and MJO progression was also different 

[bluewave]

Yeah, a continuation of the long range model forecasts backing off the cold a bit from earlier runs. While the original run wasn’t that cold, the new run has less for us. With the similar strongest cold departures going west and south. The long range runs and especially the GEFS are beginning to show the La Niña seasonal shift to more -PNA by mid to late January. Very difficult to sustain a +PNA during a La Niña event.

New run

Old run

 

[EastonSN+]

36 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Gefs staring to show the RNA at the end of its run. It will all be over soon 

We would need the nao to stay negative and it could be a big snowfall opportunity for us, however if the nao does not cooperate then yes it's pretty much over until March.

[snowman19]

Just now, bluewave said:

Yeah, a continuation of the long range model forecasts backing off the cold a bit from earlier runs. While the original run wasn’t that cold, the new run has less for us. With the similar strongest cold departures going west and south. The long range OP runs and especially the GEFS are beginning to show the La Niña seasonal shift to more -PNA by mid to late January. Very difficult to sustain a +PNA during a La Niña event with a mismatch.

New run

Old run

 

Yea, the models (ensembles and operationals) are showing the mid-late month pattern starting to break down with some troughing beginning to push into the west around 1/18

[EastonSN+]

30 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

With this being a Nina and fast Pacific jet like we’ve pretty much had since late 2018 nonstop, once the blocking relaxes it might just go back to cutters or SWFE that favor New England. Our hope is that in the transition something can sneak in and get us. This pattern is tailor made to screw us. The fast pattern allows for suppressed threats or cutters but seemingly not ones for us. Makes you appreciate 2020-21 even more when somehow we got some threats to work. 

The problem with the last two years is the RNA was incredibly negative. If the RNA was moderately negative or lightly negative with that nao block we could have had a couple of KU events. Ironically, if we had an RNA in this period, we would likely have seen decent snowfall if not more.

On a side note this is like 2019 I believe, when the Middle Atlantic did better than us.

 

[bluewave]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Yea, the models (ensembles and operationals) are showing the mid-late month pattern starting to break down with some troughing beginning to push into the west around 1/18

The is the same pattern of the models underestimating the Pacific Jet beyond 10 days. Notice how much lower the heights will be over the EPAC and WNA than the earlier runs for mid-January. Very hard to sustain a -EPO during the winter after 13-14 and 14-15. 
 

New run

Old run

[snowman19]

25 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Not a bad look

Those are RMM plots are noisy. The VP/OLR anomaly maps are more accurate and they show a decided push into the IO phases late month. Pray for -NAO to tame what’s likely going to be a -PNA/RNA developing 

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

The is the same pattern of the models underestimating the Pacific Jet beyond 10 days. Notice how much lower the heights will be over the EPAC and WNA than the earlier runs for mid-January. Very hard to sustain a -EPO during the winter after 13-14 and 14-15. 
 

New run

Old run

Ironically the new look is a better opportunity for us with regards to snowfall then the old one, which is obviously suppression given the access of the trough. 

I cannot wait for this jet extension multi-year period to end, however as we have seen some patterns can last more than a decade so this may last a few more years.

[EastonSN+]

Looking at the below it does not seem like the mjo wave is as strong so it might have limited effects on our pattern. 

[EastonSN+]

Still need to watch the following time frame, as this would be our best opportunity where the RNA finally starts to head negative, which will help pump the southeast ridge a little and fight the suppression. Cold air is in place ahead of the storm in this situation.

[SACRUS]

 

34 / 15 off a low of 27 here.  Near or low 40s then likely sub 40 for the next 7 - 10 days perhaps beyond.   Snow flurries and showers later tonight/ Sat more south and Mon we'll see how far north precip can get.

 

[snowman19]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Still need to watch the following time frame, as this would be our best opportunity where the RNA finally starts to head negative, which will help pump the southeast ridge a little and fight the suppression. Cold air is in place ahead of the storm in this situation.

Once the RNA kicks in (especially in a -ENSO) you want some semblance of -NAO or the SE ridge will go wild, especially if convection starts firing in the SE….latent/sensible heat release aloft strengths the SE ridge. As we’ve seen time and again the models will grossly underestimate the SE ridge at range and get stronger and stronger as we move closer in time which ends up resulting in inland runner and cutter tracks when you don’t have a -NAO counteracting it somewhat 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 65 (2000)
NYC: 64 (2000)
LGA: 63 (2000)
JFK: 60 (2000)


Lows:

EWR: 8 (2014)
NYC: -4 (1879)
LGA: 10 (2014)
JFK: 9 (2014)

 

Historical: 

 

1777 - An overnight freeze enabled George Washington and his troops to flank the British at Trenton, cross their lines at Princeton, and seek security in the hills of northern New Jersey. (David Ludlum)

1824: The oldest known weather information in Oklahoma begins on this today at Fort Gibson in 1824. Now known as Muskogee County. 

 

1883: A remarkably brilliant meteor display occurred on the night of January 3rd. The phenomenon was observed at stations in Wisconsin, Michigan, Missouri, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio. This meteor was described as having resembled a large, bright ball of fire.

1886: A severe ice storm struck portions of northeastern Iowa when heavy accumulations of freezing rain brought down trees and branches across the area. An observer near Garnavillo in Clayton County wrote that "the rain...mostly froze as it fell, and coated twigs of trees with ice an inch thick, and many trees were seriously broken. Our telephone wires were broken in many places. Large old trees and large limbs broken. In the woods, many trees bent their tops, so the ground and the roads were impassible until the treetops were cut off." In Fayette County, it was reported that "ice formed on the trees so thick that many limbs, from four to eight inches through, were broken and the tops of the trees, thirty feet high, rested on the ground in many instances blockading the roads." An observer at Waukon noted that "ice formed on the trees to such an extent that in very many cases our shade trees were ruined. All afternoon and night, it was a continual crash."

 

1949: During the late afternoon hours, an estimated F4 tornado destroyed Warren, Arkansas. The tornado killed 55 people and injured more than 250 others. The destruction of the Bradley mill displaced 1,000 employees.

1961 - A three day long icestorm was in progress over northern Idaho which produced an accumulation of ice eight inches thick, a U.S. record. Heavy fog, which blanketed much of northern Idaho from Grangeville to the Canadian border, deposited the ice on power and phone lines causing widespread power outages. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1987 - A powerful Pacific coast storm blasted the western U.S. with high winds, heavy rain and heavy snow. Winds gusted to 96 mph at Cape Blanco OR, and snowfall totals reached 20 inches in the Sierra Nevada Range of California. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - After a day of rest, "Old Man Winter" came back as a triple threat, hitting both coasts with winter storms, and blasting the central U.S. with cold arctic air. Snow and ice in the eastern U.S. caused 4.5 million dollars damage to homes and vehicles in North Carolina, the storm in the western U.S. produced two feet of snow in the Lake Tahoe area of Nevada, and temperatures in North Dakota plunged to 30 degrees below zero, with wind chill readings as cold as 95 degrees below zero. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Thirteen cities in the southeastern U.S., and five more in Washington and Oregon, reported new record high temperatures for the date. Highs of 78 degrees at Galveston TX and 82 degrees at Lake Charles LA were records for the month of January. (National Weather Summary)

1990 - A winter storm in the southwestern U.S. spread snow across Colorado and New Mexico. Heavy snow fell in southwestern Colorado, with 13 inches reported at Wolf Creek Pass. Snow spread into the Central Plains Region during the day, with six inches reported at Garden City KS. (National Weather Summary)

1994 - A heavy wet snow blanketed much of the state of Ohio, with 12 to 18 inches reported in counties along the Ohio River. Newport received 21 inches. Thunder and lightning accompanied the snow, with five inches reported in Washington County and Noble County between 7 AM and 8 AM Tuesday. Parts of Washington County were without electricity for eight days following the storm.(National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

2000: Two F3 tornadoes struck northwest Kentucky late in the afternoon of January 3. Owensboro, Kentucky, sustained the most severe damage and the highest number of injuries. Click HERE for more information from the NWS Office in Paducah, Kentucky.

2018: The first time in 28 years, light snowfalls in Tallahassee, Florida. The NWS Office in Tallahassee measured 0.1" of snow/sleet at 8:30 am.
 

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Once the RNA kicks in (especially in a -ENSO) you want some semblance of -NAO or the SE ridge will go wild, especially if convection starts firing in the SE….latent/sensible heat release aloft strengths the SE ridge. As we’ve seen time and again the models will grossly underestimate the SE ridge at range and get stronger and stronger as we move closer in time which ends up resulting in inland runner and cutter tracks when you don’t have a -NAO counteracting it somewhat 

Agreed however in this situation there is some remnant blocking, and with the cold air in place it could change over to rain, but you would at least have some front and snow. Better than having what we have now and that's a trough with the access right over us which is dry.

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Once the RNA kicks in (especially in a -ENSO) you want some semblance of -NAO or the SE ridge will go wild, especially if convection starts firing in the SE….latent/sensible heat release aloft strengths the SE ridge. As we’ve seen time and again the models will grossly underestimate the SE ridge at range and get stronger and stronger as we move closer in time which ends up resulting in inland runner and cutter tracks when you don’t have a -NAO counteracting it somewhat 

Still waiting for your January warmth. Stop talking about the long range and worry about what's going on in the near future. Models change in the long range.

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Yeah, 20-21 was one of my favorite winters. We somehow avoided the typical Nina RNA and had one of our snowiest stretches since 17/18 

I believe that was the last winter where we had an above average snowfall December.

[the_other_guy]

59 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, a continuation of the long range model forecasts backing off the cold a bit from earlier runs. While the original run wasn’t that cold, the new run has less for us. With the similar strongest cold departures going west and south. The long range runs and especially the GEFS are beginning to show the La Niña seasonal shift to more -PNA by mid to late January. Very difficult to sustain a +PNA during a La Niña event.

New run

Old run

 

See, you jump on every warm thing you see.

 

Then you wonder why I say you have a warm bias.

 

Meanwhile the verification of these long term patterns is marginal at best.

 

Enjoy the cold January

[LibertyBell]

41 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

See, you jump on every warm thing you see.

 

Then you wonder why I say you have a warm bias.

 

Meanwhile the verification of these long term patterns is marginal at best.

 

Enjoy the cold January

cold and DRY* January

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Once the RNA kicks in (especially in a -ENSO) you want some semblance of -NAO or the SE ridge will go wild, especially if convection starts firing in the SE….latent/sensible heat release aloft strengths the SE ridge. As we’ve seen time and again the models will grossly underestimate the SE ridge at range and get stronger and stronger as we move closer in time which ends up resulting in inland runner and cutter tracks when you don’t have a -NAO counteracting it somewhat 

this is what happened in 1989-90

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

cold and DRY* January

Happens.  Hopefully we can cash in on something as the pattern relaxes a bit-but the chances for multiple storms appears to be dropping

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

The problem with the last two years is the RNA was incredibly negative. If the RNA was moderately negative or lightly negative with that nao block we could have had a couple of KU events. Ironically, if we had an RNA in this period, we would likely have seen decent snowfall if not more.

On a side note this is like 2019 I believe, when the Middle Atlantic did better than us.

 

its actually normal for the middle atlantic to do better for stretches (see 80s).

[SACRUS]

 

System thatll bring flurries and snow showers later today and tonight mainly south into SNJ

 

 

[vegan_edible]

im very skeptical we make it through january without a 4"+ event in the metro. im sure once this upcoming pattern relaxes in the upcoming 8-10 day window we may begin to see more precipitation on the models

[winterwx21]

53 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

im very skeptical we make it through january without a 4"+ event in the metro. im sure once this upcoming pattern relaxes in the upcoming 8-10 day window we may begin to see more precipitation on the models

And 12z GFS does give us a snow event next Saturday. Way too early take that one very seriously, but I would think we'll have at least 1 more opportunity before the pattern breaks down. 

[Volcanic Winter]

What was different about January 2022 that allowed a KU, highly amplified offshore system to close the month (1/29)? While true that it only scraped NYC - it was inches away from a major storm across the full metro but still gave me and LI well over a foot (or two). I remember it had some bizarre dual low structure and the further east low became the primary, pulling the best snows east away from the metro before going on to clobber parts of NE.

I know that was a strong -EPO pattern, but what's different now that it seems so impossible to get a highly amplified coastal like that? IIRC that was when the pattern was breaking down, days before we transitioned to sustained warmth in Feb as is our usual anymore.

Asking because I don't know, no insinuations or predictions. Thanks guys.

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

See, you jump on every warm thing you see.

 

Then you wonder why I say you have a warm bias.

 

Meanwhile the verification of these long term patterns is marginal at best.

 

Enjoy the cold January

I am describing the actual pattern. So it’s the pattern which has been biased warm. Never realized that describing temperature patterns and the repeating model bias trends required trigger warmings. You are probably a younger guy who doesn’t remember what actual cold Januaries were like in the past. 

[EastonSN+]

That's a lot of Lows.

Bluewave this is not the wave spacing we need.