January 2025

[EastonSN+]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

While the ensembles may be smoothing things out too much, all 3 OP runs try to show a transient Southeast Ridge in 10 days.

I really hope it arrives, even if for a short time. We really need to shake things up.

[Allsnow]

 

[bluewave]

37 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

The mid-level lapse rates in NJ really mean business.

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

I really hope it arrives, even if for a short time. We really need to shake things up.

That’s not a snow look for the coast on those maps 

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

That’s not a snow look for the coast on those maps 

This is where I say I’m fine with it being warm again then. Dry cold here while we watch DC and VA rack up snow events-get that out of here. 

[jm1220]

Just now, BoulderWX said:

Looking at the icon at 78 and you would think for sure a good storm is coming. Confluence just eats it up. Southern NJ does really well in set ups like these. 

Not that difficult a call here unfortunately without significant changes. There’s still time but we really need to see it soon-a big weakening trend in the confluence or stronger S/W that can nudge it north. These relatively minor changes won’t do it. We’ve seen this show before in 2022, 2019 etc. 

[Allsnow]

4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Not that difficult a call here unfortunately without significant changes. There’s still time but we really need to see it soon-a big weakening trend in the confluence or stronger S/W that can nudge it north. These relatively minor changes won’t do it. We’ve seen this show before in 2022, 2019 etc. 

icon is 3-6 for LI 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

13 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Not that difficult a call here unfortunately without significant changes. There’s still time but we really need to see it soon-a big weakening trend in the confluence or stronger S/W that can nudge it north. These relatively minor changes won’t do it. We’ve seen this show before in 2022, 2019 etc. 

I hope you mean 2021-22 and 2018-19, and not 2022-23 and 2019-20. At least the former two, while not the best, had some snow. The latter two had less than one inch of snow, and we don't need another one of that.

[jm1220]

12 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

icon is 3-6 for LI 

Probably a tease until other models jump on. 

[jm1220]

12 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I hope you mean 2021-22 and 2018-19, and not 2022-23 and 2019-20. At least the former two, while not the best, had some snow. The latter two had less than one inch of snow, and we don't need another one of that.

Yes those two (first two). 

[donsutherland1]

A gradual transition toward sustained colder than normal weather is ongoing. Temperatures could fall to below normal levels during or after the coming weekend.

An upper level disturbance will likely bring some snow flurries and snow showers from Washington, DC to central New Jersey. Some areas could pick up a small accumulation.

A more important storm will bring parts of the Middle Atlantic region a moderate to locally significant snowfall Sunday night into Monday. Washington, DC, Baltimore, and Philadelphia have the potential to see 3"-6" of snow with locally higher amounts. The highest amounts will likely be centered over the Washington, DC-Baltimore area. Some degree of uncertainty persists.

Once north of Philadelphia, accumulations could fall off quite rapidly. A light amount remains likely for the New York City area.

With the storm appearing a little stronger and tracking slightly farther to the north on the guidance, the probability of Richmond's seeing an end to its current record streak of 1,082 days without daily 1" or greater daily snowfall has decreased. The risk of sleet and freezing rain there has increased.

The second and third weeks of January will likely feature widespread cold anomalies in much of the eastern half of the CONUS and Canada south of the Hudson and James Bays. The potential exists for widespread cold anomalies of 6°-10° below normal during that week in parts of that region, particularly the Southeast. Severe cold still appears unlikely in the New York City and Philadelphia areas through at least mid-month.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around December 25. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.10°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.53°C. Neutral ENSO conditions may still evolve into a La Niña event during the winter. Uncertainty as to whether a La Niña will actually develop persists. On the December 19 outlook, 56% of dynamical models but 0% of the statistical models forecast the development of a La Niña.

The SOI was -5.36 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.461 today.

 

[Allsnow]

Southeast ridge helping with next weeks threat on the 18z gfs 

[Stormlover74]

6 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Southeast ridge helping with next weeks threat on the 18z gfs 

Another threat showing up next weekend

[SnoSki14]

10 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Southeast ridge helping with next weeks threat on the 18z gfs 

Such an odd setup. Normally we'd torch in this scenario but confluence and TPV really keeping it cold.

[EastonSN+]

14 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Southeast ridge helping with next weeks threat on the 18z gfs 

The issue now is wave spacing otherwise it would have came up the coast that low pressure to the West is affecting it.

[SnowGoose69]

8 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

The issue now is wave spacing otherwise it would have came up the coast that low pressure to the West is affecting it.

I sort of think the whole system is gonna eject out way faster anyway.  If that happens its likely just a deep south winter event.

[wdrag]

Measurable snow showers brush I78 south this afternoon-evening impacting the extreme southern part of this NYC suforum but no thread since not widespread enough. Monitor radar and mPing.  Should be highly variable - swiftly changing conditions near Philly later today--but that's out of our coverage domain. However, if you're planning to drive through that area mid afternoon into the evening, don't be surprised at delays. 

[Allsnow]

Boring pattern 

 

[MJO812]

13 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Boring pattern 

 

I guess we have to wait now

[Allsnow]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I guess we have to wait now

Late January into February might be rough 

 

The storm between the 12th and 15th looks like a cutter 

[EastonSN+]

We may end up with negative departures for December and January with little to show for it. Just speaking of the mjo which looks weak, it will be heading to the warm phases by the end of the month. Hopefully we get back to the good phases by March where the shorter wavelengths may help with suppression.

What's wild is the MA may have more snowfall this year than the combined snowfall for Central Park in 3 years combined including this year.

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

We may end up with negative departures for December and January with little to show for it. Just speaking of the mjo which looks weak, it will be heading to the warm phases by the end of the month. Hopefully we get back to the good phases by March where the shorter wavelengths may help with suppression.

What's wild is the MA may have more snowfall this year than the combined snowfall for Central Park in 3 years combined including this year.

2 below average temp months and below normal snow, while south of us cleans up. If that’s not a kick in the teeth for a snow weenie not sure what is. 

[EastonSN+]

Just now, jm1220 said:

2 below average temp months and below normal snow, while south of us cleans up. If that’s not a kick in the teeth for a snow weenie not sure what is. 

Not only that but the Middle Atlantic may have more snowfall in this storm than Central Park had in 3 years combined LOL. Depending on how this year ends up. 

To be clear I still believe we have a good opportunity mid-month when the blocking relaxes however if it fails then we will be in the warm phases of the mjo and we have to wait for the reload so punting some of February is never good.

 

[Allsnow]

8 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Not only that but the Middle Atlantic may have more snowfall in this storm than Central Park had in 3 years combined LOL. Depending on how this year ends up. 

To be clear I still believe we have a good opportunity mid-month when the blocking relaxes however if it fails then we will be in the warm phases of the mjo and we have to wait for the reload so punting some of February is never good.

 

Gefs staring to show the RNA at the end of its run. It will all be over soon 

[MJO812]

49 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Late January into February might be rough 

 

The storm between the 12th and 15th looks like a cutter 

This pattern isn't working. Time to shake it up and bring a southeast ridge.

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Gefs staring to show the RNA at the end of its run. It will all be over soon 

That's way too far out. The models can't even get a storm right under 100 hours let alone over 240 plus hours out.

I think we will get out of this pattern with a big snowstorm but it's going to take patience 

[Allsnow]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This pattern isn't working. Time to shake it up and bring a southeast ridge.

That would bring the cutters back and with the block breaking down it won’t work 

[MJO812]

Just now, Allsnow said:

That would bring the cutters back and with the block breaking down it won’t work 

We don't know that for sure. I do think it warms up for February but we need a change from this suppressive pattern. 

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This pattern isn't working. Time to shake it up and bring a southeast ridge.

With this being a Nina and fast Pacific jet like we’ve pretty much had since late 2018 nonstop, once the blocking relaxes it might just go back to cutters or SWFE that favor New England. Our hope is that in the transition something can sneak in and get us. This pattern is tailor made to screw us. The fast pattern allows for suppressed threats or cutters but seemingly not ones for us. Makes you appreciate 2020-21 even more when somehow we got some threats to work. 

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

With this being a Nina and fast Pacific jet like we’ve pretty much had since late 2018 nonstop, once the blocking relaxes it might just go back to cutters or SWFE that favor New England. Our hope is that in the transition something can sneak in and get us. This pattern is tailor made to screw us. The fast pattern allows for suppressed threats or cutters but seemingly not ones for us. Makes you appreciate 2020-21 even more when somehow we got some threats to work. 

Yeah, 20-21 was one of my favorite winters. We somehow avoided the typical Nina RNA and had one of our snowiest stretches since 17/18